Rating the Rookie QBs - What the Numbers Show

[thebandit27]

22 minutes ago, zonabb said:

I'd bet anyone $1,000 right now that Allen's 2019 completion percentage doesn't exceed 59.9%, falls short of 20 TDs, and throws at least 14 INTs. The homers around here want to still blame the line and skill position talent and I'll agree with that but that doesn't account for the entire issue with Allen. He is still wildly inaccurate with bad mechanics. None of that has been improved. So you can still argue that it's not his fault by blaming everything but him but if you watch with your eyes instead of your heart, you'll see a kid who hasn't improved his physical or mental game. And next year, what will the excuse be when the talent will be, without question better (how can it be worse) after FA and the draft and he continue to throw off his back foot, be laughably inaccurate, and makes many mental mistakes? 

 

Wildly inaccurate

 

It's always hyperbole around here.

 

[klos63]

2 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

I'd say Allen is having the 2nd best season (behind Mayfield).  And I did not want him before the draft.  Pleasantly surprised with his decision making improvement during the season.   Allen has the worst supporting cast of any of these guys.  Rosen has a freaking HOF WR and great RB who should be in his prime.  Jackson has a fantastic D that makes plays, and a good stable of RB's and a decent WR cast, and two good TE's.  Allen has no TE or RB help. 

Darnold is way above Allen right now.

[Chicken Boo]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I don't see Rosen or Jackson as long term starting qbs. Rosen will get hurt ala Bradford and Lamar will be forced to be a pocket guy and he will struggle. 

 

So he and Josh Allen will be facing similar hurdles.

[Success]

In Kelly’s era, Marino was much more of the stats guy.  Which didn’t really measure intangibles in any significant way.

 

Stats aren’t useless, but they don’t get you to Super Bowls. 

[TC in St. Louis]

I'd take Josh Allen over any of the others.  He's a phenomenal athlete who has grown tremendously throughout the season.  He came from Wyoming to the NFL, behind a bad line with crap receivers and no running game, other than his own.  He's made some great throws, and he's so much better now than earlier in the year.  By the time they fix the line problems, get him some targets, and get a running game going, he's going to be an absolute star.  

[Iverwig]

What I don’t understand is a few people want to treat Allen like he’s a 3rd year QB. Allen is not only a rookie but everyone except the Bills front office and head coach knew he would struggle some during his rookie year because he needed to sit under a quality  QB coach and behind a veteran. D. Anderson has been helpful to Josh but imagine how much further along Josh would have been if Anderson was here since fall camp and Josh had him to help instead of a Peterman. Criticizing Josh at this point in his career just shows many have an agenda. The Bills have arguably the worst offense and especially offensive skill positions in the league but yet people want to criticize Josh for not putting the team on his back.  Josh has been improving since his first game. He struggled yesterday but I do not count yesterday because of B. B’s Success against rookie QB’s.   It is a problem when your rookie QB is called the leader of your team/offense by the head coach. That should show you how bad this team and head coach are. No way should Josh be the leader of this team already after playing in a little more than half the games this year.  

 

Give the kid some time because the tools are there for him to be a really good QB. He’s never going to be Brady or P. Manning but he can definitely be B. Favre. 

[quinnearlysghost88]

2 hours ago, zonabb said:

I'd bet anyone $1,000 right now that Allen's 2019 completion percentage doesn't exceed 59.9%, falls short of 20 TDs, and throws at least 14 INTs. The homers around here want to still blame the line and skill position talent and I'll agree with that but that doesn't account for the entire issue with Allen. He is still wildly inaccurate with bad mechanics. None of that has been improved. So you can still argue that it's not his fault by blaming everything but him but if you watch with your eyes instead of your heart, you'll see a kid who hasn't improved his physical or mental game. And next year, what will the excuse be when the talent will be, without question better (how can it be worse) after FA and the draft and he continue to throw off his back foot, be laughably inaccurate, and makes many mental mistakes? 

So basically cam Newton’s second year (57.7% 19 TDs 12 INTs)  I’ll take it. 

Edited December 24, 2018 by quinnearlysghost88

[timtebow15]

7 hours ago, zonabb said:

I'd bet anyone $1,000 right now that Allen's 2019 completion percentage doesn't exceed 59.9%, falls short of 20 TDs, and throws at least 14 INTs. The homers around here want to still blame the line and skill position talent and I'll agree with that but that doesn't account for the entire issue with Allen. He is still wildly inaccurate with bad mechanics. None of that has been improved. So you can still argue that it's not his fault by blaming everything but him but if you watch with your eyes instead of your heart, you'll see a kid who hasn't improved his physical or mental game. And next year, what will the excuse be when the talent will be, without question better (how can it be worse) after FA and the draft and he continue to throw off his back foot, be laughably inaccurate, and makes many mental mistakes? 

I'd take the bet except he may still have crap teammates on O next year.  He's not overly inaccurate.  When you take into account the drops and times he's had to throw balls away because his line and receivers stink he's been okay.  Also, he's done much better the games since the injury when he decided to run if the line wasn't going to block and the OC started to call routes that created that open space.  He is not wildly inaccurate.  Every game QBs miss some WRs and he's shown improvement.

[Bleedingreennc]

10 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

I'd say Allen is having the 2nd best season (behind Mayfield).  And I did not want him before the draft.  Pleasantly surprised with his decision making improvement during the season.   Allen has the worst supporting cast of any of these guys.  Rosen has a freaking HOF WR and great RB who should be in his prime.  Jackson has a fantastic D that makes plays, and a good stable of RB's and a decent WR cast, and two good TE's.  Allen has no TE or RB help. 

2nd best?? How do you come up with this?

[billieve420]

13 minutes ago, Bleedingreennc said:

2nd best?? How do you come up with this?

 

 Few weeks ago I would have agreed as well. Darnold has really turned things around starting with that 2nd half against the Bills. 

[BullBuchanan]

10 hours ago, TC in St. Louis said:

I'd take Josh Allen over any of the others.  He's a phenomenal athlete who has grown tremendously throughout the season.  He came from Wyoming to the NFL, behind a bad line with crap receivers and no running game, other than his own.  He's made some great throws, and he's so much better now than earlier in the year.  By the time they fix the line problems, get him some targets, and get a running game going, he's going to be an absolute star.  

I'd argue he hasn't grown a bit as a passer so far. He's exactly as advertised with the exception of being a much bigger double threat. However, that may be more a product of him not handling his reads as well as he should. He's still a big armed athletic thrower with accuracy issues who doesn't always process his reads correctly or fast enough.  I like his leadership.

 

None of this is a problem right now though. He's done a good enough job so far on a really bad team. Growth typically doesn't happen during the season for a rookie. It's far more likely that it'll happen in the offseason, and then maybe during the next year as he irons out what he needs to.

The biggest thing for me is that he learns how to control power. He might be able to throw a ball 65MPH in shorts, but sometimes he doesn't put enough heat on the ball, other times (flats) he puts way too much, and his trajectory on deep balls leaves a lot to be desired. Those are all fixable, and I expect him to make a massive jump assuming he has the appropriate coaching, which is far, far, far from a foregone conclusion.

[billsfan1959]

5 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

I'd argue he hasn't grown a bit as a passer so far. He's exactly as advertised with the exception of being a much bigger double threat. However, that may be more a product of him not handling his reads as well as he should. He's still a big armed athletic thrower with accuracy issues who doesn't always process his reads correctly or fast enough.  I like his leadership.

 

None of this is a problem right now though. He's done a good enough job so far on a really bad team. Growth typically doesn't happen during the season for a rookie. It's far more likely that it'll happen in the offseason, and then maybe during the next year as he irons out what he needs to.

The biggest thing for me is that he learns how to control power. He might be able to throw a ball 65MPH in shorts, but sometimes he doesn't put enough heat on the ball, other times (flats) he puts way too much, and his trajectory on deep balls leaves a lot to be desired. Those are all fixable, and I expect him to make a massive jump assuming he has the appropriate coaching, which is far, far, far from a foregone conclusion.

Go back and watch the All-22 on his games from the beginning of this year. You can see instance after instance in the last 4-5 games where he has improved on his touch, reading defenses pre and post snap, going through his progressions, trusting his pocket, etc.  He is a rookie, who is going through typical rookie growing pains, and who has so much to learn and so much to improve on. However, to say he hasn't grown a bit as a passer shows a complete inability to objectively assess his play on the field.

Edited December 25, 2018 by billsfan1959

[BananaB]

Allen just isn’t In the shittiest situation out of these rookie QBs, it’s more like the entire NFL. And he has put the O on his back since his return from injury. The numbers might not show it but the game film does.

[PatsFanNH]

21 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Passer Rating - note that median for qualifiers this year is 95.8 - Trubisky/Brady (!)

Baker Mayfield  95.1

Lamar Jackson  84.9

Sam Darnold 77.8

Josh Rosen 66.0

Josh Allen  63.7

 

ESPN's Total QBR - median is 61.2 - Cousins/Mullens (!!)

Mayfield  56.2

Jackson  47.8

Darnold 47.0

Allen 46.1

Rosen 29.1 (ouch!)

 

ANY/A (see Pro Football Reference for Definition) - median is 6.64 - Cousins/Trubisky

Mayfield 6.74 (interesting - already roughly average as an NFL starter)

Jackson 5.93

Darnold 5.32

Allen 4.02 (ouch)

Rosen 3.56 (double ouch)

 

Comparison: Nick Mullens, undrafted FA last year, 3rd stringer forced into action for 49ers - 

Passer Rating: 91.2

Total QBR: 59.4

ANY/A:  6.95

 

Conclusions?

• Other than Mayfield, the rookie QBs have been varying degrees of bad or at least "not good"
• Allen and Jackson derive a lot of their value from running. But only one is working in an offense right now that is built around having a running QB, and it shows in the results.
• Nick Mullens is sort of a rookie, and so far this undrafted FA has been better than the highly regarded 2018 draft class. Will that last? Probably not. But it's a good comparison because, again, it shows how low we've set the bar for a "successful" rookie year for this year's class.
• Another interesting comparison: Lamar Jackson's stats are roughly equal to Flacco's. This is my kind of seat-of-the-pants "no drop-off in performance from an established veteran" metric. Mullens?  Not as good as Garoppolo's stint last year, but way, way better than C.J. Beathard.  Allen? Miles better than the horror show that was Peterman/Anderson (but consider the quirk of Barkley's fantastic one-game sample ...).  Darnold? Way better than McCown. Mayfield/Rosen - too small a sample to say anything, except that maybe Tyrod and Bradford just plain suck.

 

Simple question. How is 13 game sample to little to judge Mayfield, but 11 is enough judge Allen? Also Mayfield QBR is 95.6 in 12 games that’s damn good for a rookie.. 

 

truth is Mayfield was the first overall pick and its easy to see why.. he has improved the Browns from 0-16 to at least 7-8-1 or more exact 7-5. 

 

To be honest  most teams teams just aren’t built win right now:

 

Jets — a mess of steam with no real O or D talent.

 

Bills — great D but outside Allen no talent speak of on O.

 

Arizona - awful D, but have a good/great RB and a great old WR.. but no Oline.

 

Baltimore — a D almost as good as their 2000 D.. Jackson just has to play smart and not turn the ball over..  

 

 

[Peter]

I am still rooting for Josh.  He seems like a great kid.  At the same time, he is pretty much what the scouting reports said about him.

 

It would have been nice to see what he could have done with Incognito and Cordy and one or more of Goodwin, Woods, or Sammy.

 

P.S. In another thread, someone posted EJ's stats over a similar number of games.  They are very interesting in comparison to Josh's stats. I wonder how many people took conflicting views of each QB.

Edited December 25, 2018 by Peter

[CincyBillsFan]

Using a combination of the stats and what I've seen watching the rookie QB's here's my take:

 

1)  Baker Mayfield.  Clearly leads the pack and passes the eye test.  Has enough weapons to show that moxy in throwing the football gets rewarded in the NFL.  Solid long term starter for Cleveland.

 

2)  Tied at # 2 are Allen & Darnold.  While both these guys have shown flashes of brilliance in their passing games they have also made some very bad throws.  Darnold clearly has the edge in play makers so we're able to see his passing upside more clearly then Allen's.  An example of this was in the Jet's game against GB.   In a posted video you can see a jet TE make a spectacular one handed grab of a poorly thrown Darnold pass at the goal line.  if you look closely you'll see a GB DB sitting there waiting for the INT which would have been made had this been a Bills TE.  I also think there is a higher risk that both Allen & Darnold will fail then there is with Baker.  On the other hand I believe that Darnold & Allen's upside are higher then Mayfield's

 

3)  Jackson.  This is a real interesting situation where we MIGHT be seeing a change in what defines effective QB play in the NFL.  The key here is whether Jackson can pull this off over the long run.  Jackson is also clearly playing on the best team of the rookie QB's and the Ravens have done a brilliant job of fitting the offense to his strengths.  Jackson is not being asked to win games in the way that Mayfield, Darnold & Allen are. 

 

4)  Rosen.  I think it's fair to say that Rosen has gotten off to the worst start of all the rookie QB's.  Of course that doesn't mean he'll lose the race but he's undeniably behind.  Part of this is clearly on the dumpster fire that is Arizona's offense.  But any honest appraisal of the Bills offense would have to conclude that Allen is playing with just as odious a dumpster fire as Rosen.  Of all the QB's Rosen has provided the fewest reasons to be optimistic.  But it is early in Rosen's career and if the Cards put some weapons around him nobody can rule out that 2 years from now he could be at the top of this list. 

[formerlyofCtown]

On 12/24/2018 at 12:46 PM, The Frankish Reich said:

Passer Rating - note that median for qualifiers this year is 95.8 - Trubisky/Brady (!)

Baker Mayfield  95.1

Lamar Jackson  84.9

Sam Darnold 77.8

Josh Rosen 66.0

Josh Allen  63.7

 

ESPN's Total QBR - median is 61.2 - Cousins/Mullens (!!)

Mayfield  56.2

Jackson  47.8

Darnold 47.0

Allen 46.1

Rosen 29.1 (ouch!)

 

ANY/A (see Pro Football Reference for Definition) - median is 6.64 - Cousins/Trubisky

Mayfield 6.74 (interesting - already roughly average as an NFL starter)

Jackson 5.93

Darnold 5.32

Allen 4.02 (ouch)

Rosen 3.56 (double ouch)

 

Comparison: Nick Mullens, undrafted FA last year, 3rd stringer forced into action for 49ers - 

Passer Rating: 91.2

Total QBR: 59.4

ANY/A:  6.95

 

Conclusions?

• Other than Mayfield, the rookie QBs have been varying degrees of bad or at least "not good"
• Allen and Jackson derive a lot of their value from running. But only one is working in an offense right now that is built around having a running QB, and it shows in the results.
• Nick Mullens is sort of a rookie, and so far this undrafted FA has been better than the highly regarded 2018 draft class. Will that last? Probably not. But it's a good comparison because, again, it shows how low we've set the bar for a "successful" rookie year for this year's class.
• Another interesting comparison: Lamar Jackson's stats are roughly equal to Flacco's. This is my kind of seat-of-the-pants "no drop-off in performance from an established veteran" metric. Mullens?  Not as good as Garoppolo's stint last year, but way, way better than C.J. Beathard.  Allen? Miles better than the horror show that was Peterman/Anderson (but consider the quirk of Barkley's fantastic one-game sample ...).  Darnold? Way better than McCown. Mayfield/Rosen - too small a sample to say anything, except that maybe Tyrod and Bradford just plain suck.

 

Look  what sitting for almost his entire first year did for Mahomes.

Sitting for a year is not equivalent to being a Rookie.  Everything else is interesting and not a suprise.  Im actually very excited about what the future holds for these QBs.  I cant wait to see them next year.  When they have 2 off seasons and a season under their belts and teams try to figure out how to shut them down completely.

Mayfield-Expect some improvement not a ton I see him in the MVP conversationnext year, before he finishes runner up to Allen 5 or 6 of the next 15-18 years after that(I can hope for the best right) (because he is already playing so well)

Allen-I expect a huge jump, I dont know about the MVP suggestions but at lrast top of the middle(he has had subpar coaching his whole life, now he has good coaching and no doubt he will work his tail off in the offseason)

Rosen-I expect a big jump(Hope he doesnt, but hes a smart QB and a good one)

Darnold-Will likely throw even more Ints next year (unless they force him to play ball control offense for a year or to I dont think he will ever protect the football.)

Lamar Jackson- expect more of the same with some passing improvement(Gregg Roman is in Baltimore, if the rumors are true then expect to see him as HC or OC lots of QB running and trickery)

 

 

On 12/24/2018 at 5:01 PM, Iverwig said:

What I don’t understand is a few people want to treat Allen like he’s a 3rd year QB. Allen is not only a rookie but everyone except the Bills front office and head coach knew he would struggle some during his rookie year because he needed to sit under a quality  QB coach and behind a veteran. D. Anderson has been helpful to Josh but imagine how much further along Josh would have been if Anderson was here since fall camp and Josh had him to help instead of a Peterman. Criticizing Josh at this point in his career just shows many have an agenda. The Bills have arguably the worst offense and especially offensive skill positions in the league but yet people want to criticize Josh for not putting the team on his back.  Josh has been improving since his first game. He struggled yesterday but I do not count yesterday because of B. B’s Success against rookie QB’s.   It is a problem when your rookie QB is called the leader of your team/offense by the head coach. That should show you how bad this team and head coach are. No way should Josh be the leader of this team already after playing in a little more than half the games this year.  

 

Give the kid some time because the tools are there for him to be a really good QB. He’s never going to be Brady or P. Manning but he can definitely be B. Favre. 

No the Bills front office and coach wanted him to sit for a year, dont know where youre getting your intell from here.  Peterman did an excellent job of teaching Allen what not to do in a regular season NFL game.  Russel Wilson was an immediate leader of his team and McDermott is only pointing out the obvious.  McDermott didnt annoint Josh the leader he took that job by the horns.  If you think leaders are appointed on a football team I would say youve either never played or played for Rex Ryan.

He has the tools to be better than both.

Edited December 25, 2018 by formerlyofCtown

[Iverwig]

2 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Look  what sitting for almost his entire first year did for Mahomes.

Sitting for a year is not equivalent to being a Rookie.  Everything else is interesting and not a suprise.  Im actually very excited about what the future holds for these QBs.  I cant wait to see them next year.  When they have 2 off seasons and a season under their belts and teams try to figure out how to shut them down completely.

Mayfield-Expect some improvement not a ton I see him in the MVP conversationnext year, before he finishes runner up to Allen 5 or 6 of the next 15-18 years after that(I can hope for the best right) (because he is already playing so well)

Allen-I expect a huge jump, I dont know about the MVP suggestions but at lrast top of the middle(he has had subpar coaching his whole life, now he has good coaching and no doubt he will work his tail off in the offseason)

Rosen-I expect a big jump(Hope he doesnt, but hes a smart QB and a good one)

Darnold-Will likely throw even more Ints next year (unless they force him to play ball control offense for a year or to I dont think he will ever protect the football.)

Lamar Jackson- expect more of the same with some passing improvement(Gregg Roman is in Baltimore, if the rumors are true then expect to see him as HC or OC lots of QB running and trickery)

 

 

No the Bills front office and coach wanted him to sit for a year, dont know where youre getting your intell from here.  Peterman did an excellent job of teaching Allen what not to do in a regular season NFL game.  Russel Wilson was an immediate leader of his team and McDermott is only pointing out the obvious.  McDermott didnt annoint Josh the leader he took that job by the horns.  If you think leaders are appointed on a football team I would say youve either never played or played for Rex Ryan.

He has the tools to be better than both.

 I will first start with the beginning of your post. How did they want Josh to sit for a year? What evidence do you have for that? If that was true they would have went with three QB’s instead of two. You named 1 QB as an example and NO ONE expected Wilson to be as successful as he was. I will add that Wilson was more experienced then Allen was coming in. Wilson was a successful college QB at two different programs so there is no similarity between Josh and Wilson.  Josh is a leader but for him to be a QB that was supposed to sit his rookie year there is no way he should have been the leader of the offense not to mention the ONLY leader on offense. 

 

I will I’ll add Josh had to be the leader because the offense was and still is a hot mess as far as personnel goes. 

Edited December 26, 2018 by Iverwig

[BADOLBILZ]

On 12/24/2018 at 2:40 PM, thebandit27 said:

Never confuse "hasn't started a game in the NFL" with "rookie".

 

Having a full NFL offseason without having to adjust from college to NFL life is an enormous difference from having been in season-mode for 17 months.

 

 

Yeah the whole draft preparation process basically wastes an offseason for that player that could be used for training and preparation.

 

I wish they'd hold the draft in winter but any chance of that ever happening went out the window long ago when they started up the NFL network and needed the extra 4 months of programming.

 

It's reasonable to expect huge strides from this rookie class next season.

[formerlyofCtown]

1 hour ago, Iverwig said:

 I will first start with the beginning of your post. How did they want Josh to sit for a year? What evidence do you have for that? If that was true they would have went with three QB’s instead of two. You named 1 QB as an example and NO ONE expected Wilson to be as successful as he was. I will add that Wilson was more experienced then Allen was coming in. Wilson was a successful college QB at two different programs so there is no similarity between Josh and Wilson.  Josh is a leader but for him to be a QB that was supposed to sit his rookie year there is no way he should have been the leader of the offense not to mention the ONLY leader on offense. 

 

I will I’ll add Josh had to be the leader because the offense was and still is a hot mess as far as personnel goes. 

Interesting that you say that I have no way of Knowing that they wanted Allen to sit for a year but you appearantly have inside info on Wilson.  Know one thinking Wilson would do so well is not accurate because myself and John Gruden knew.  It has been hinted at several times by McBeane.  McDermott is an Andy Reid disciple not a Rivera one.  But maybe you should read what I was responding to bud.  I dont recall or see where I said he should have sat for a year though.  Russel Wilson is just a response that a Rookie can be a leader.  Leaders are leaders bro he isnt the leader because he was elected or was appointed hes a leader because he is.  A true leader is just that a leader.  Its what you call an intagible.  Its one of the reasons I like Allen.

 

But wow bro you might want to drink a little less because your reply has me scratching my head.

 

Merry Christmas bro.  You dont pick a true leader they choose to do so because its in their nature.