jwhit34 Posted December 19, 2018 Posted December 19, 2018 Per Spotrac, the Bills projected cap situation in '19: Committed Salaries (39 players) $104.3 million Dead Money 3.0 million Total Cap Used 107.3 million Projected Cap including rollover $196.0 million If the Bills release McCoy, Clay and Ducasse, this is how it would change: Committed Salaries (36 players) $ 84.3 million Dead Money 10.0 million Total Cap Used $ 94.3 million Cap space to spend $101.7 million They have 10 draft picks and using 2018 as a guide and building in about 10% inflation they will need about $10 million reserved to sign them. If you figure the 5 picks in rounds 1-4 will count against the cap (top 50 salaries count through training camp) and estimating that those salaries will be about $7.5 million, that gives the team 41 of the 53 players, about $102 of the cap used leaving $94 million to spend to fill the 12 roster spots. What might that look like? They have a lot of flexibility, here's one scenario: 3 offensive linemen for an average cap hit of $9 million - $27 million spent (thinking 2 @ $11M & 1 @ $5M) 2 WRs for an average of $9 million - $18 million spent (1 at $12-13M & 1 @ $5-6M) 1 TE for $7 million 1 backup QB for $3 million 1 defensive player at $6 million 4 depth players for an average of $1.5 million - $6 million spent That's $67 million spent leaving $27 million in cap space. In the draft, add 1-2 WRs, at least 1 OL, 1 RB, 2 defensive players, rest best player available. What this illustrates is that they can go after some big name free agents if they want and leave themselves in an enviable position at the draft to truly go with the best player available and/or be able to trade down and amass more picks for now or the future. If they want K. Williams and Alexander back, they have plenty of room to do that, they made a combined $8 million this year, they would probably cost a little less in '19 since they're a year older, plus they would be 1 year deals so it wouldn't impact roster/cap management beyond 2019. We are probably looking at about 20 new players on the team for 2019 which would be remarkable given the roster churn already in the first 2 years of McDermott/Beane. 4 2
whatdrought Posted December 19, 2018 Posted December 19, 2018 Didn’t Sammy Watkins get like 18 million alone last year? i don’t know what WR will be worth 9million. Also, starting Olinemen that are worth anything will clear at least 10million.
John from Riverside Posted December 19, 2018 Posted December 19, 2018 Ok so Clay really only costs 4 million dollars next year......after years of overpaying this guy he actually is dirt cheap going into this next season......just get a BETTER TE to be the number 1 and he can be the number 2 I would keep Shady but draft a RB 1
RyanC883 Posted December 19, 2018 Posted December 19, 2018 (edited) 14 minutes ago, jwhit34 said: Per Spotrac, the Bills projected cap situation in '19: Committed Salaries (39 players) $104.3 million Dead Money 3.0 million Total Cap Used 107.3 million Projected Cap including rollover $196.0 million If the Bills release McCoy, Clay and Ducasse, this is how it would change: Committed Salaries (36 players) $ 84.3 million Dead Money 10.0 million Total Cap Used $ 94.3 million Cap space to spend $101.7 million They have 10 draft picks and using 2018 as a guide and building in about 10% inflation they will need about $10 million reserved to sign them. If you figure the 5 picks in rounds 1-4 will count against the cap (top 50 salaries count through training camp) and estimating that those salaries will be about $7.5 million, that gives the team 41 of the 53 players, about $102 of the cap used leaving $94 million to spend to fill the 12 roster spots. What might that look like? They have a lot of flexibility, here's one scenario: 3 offensive linemen for an average cap hit of $9 million - $27 million spent (thinking 2 @ $11M & 1 @ $5M) 2 WRs for an average of $9 million - $18 million spent (1 at $12-13M & 1 @ $5-6M) 1 TE for $7 million 1 backup QB for $3 million 1 defensive player at $6 million 4 depth players for an average of $1.5 million - $6 million spent That's $67 million spent leaving $27 million in cap space. In the draft, add 1-2 WRs, at least 1 OL, 1 RB, 2 defensive players, rest best player available. What this illustrates is that they can go after some big name free agents if they want and leave themselves in an enviable position at the draft to truly go with the best player available and/or be able to trade down and amass more picks for now or the future. If they want K. Williams and Alexander back, they have plenty of room to do that, they made a combined $8 million this year, they would probably cost a little less in '19 since they're a year older, plus they would be 1 year deals so it wouldn't impact roster/cap management beyond 2019. We are probably looking at about 20 new players on the team for 2019 which would be remarkable given the roster churn already in the first 2 years of McDermott/Beane. Wow, this is fantastic stuff. I'm hoping that TE is Jessie James. Could give him 3 years, 7 mill a year. likely beat out any other offer. A WR at 12-13 mill is about right for this group of WR's for a top target. Could also sign a bunch of "fits" for less. I'd target Golden Tate, currently making 6.2 million. Cole Beasley could be a Zay Jones upgrade, currently at 3.2 million; and John Brown (Ravens) could be a great fit here. Currently at about 5 mill. Geronimo Allison could be another nice grab. Looks like he is finishing his rookie contract, and only 25 years old. Backup QB could be even cheaper. Will Barkley need 3 mill a year? 2 OL at 11M per would be nice. Allow us to hopefully grab Paradise at C and another OT or G. I'd also try to add Coleman at RB. Fun link here to play with: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/wide-receiver/ Edited December 19, 2018 by RyanC883
Big Turk Posted December 19, 2018 Posted December 19, 2018 20 minutes ago, jwhit34 said: Per Spotrac, the Bills projected cap situation in '19: Committed Salaries (39 players) $104.3 million Dead Money 3.0 million Total Cap Used 107.3 million Projected Cap including rollover $196.0 million If the Bills release McCoy, Clay and Ducasse, this is how it would change: Committed Salaries (36 players) $ 84.3 million Dead Money 10.0 million Total Cap Used $ 94.3 million Cap space to spend $101.7 million They have 10 draft picks and using 2018 as a guide and building in about 10% inflation they will need about $10 million reserved to sign them. If you figure the 5 picks in rounds 1-4 will count against the cap (top 50 salaries count through training camp) and estimating that those salaries will be about $7.5 million, that gives the team 41 of the 53 players, about $102 of the cap used leaving $94 million to spend to fill the 12 roster spots. What might that look like? They have a lot of flexibility, here's one scenario: 3 offensive linemen for an average cap hit of $9 million - $27 million spent (thinking 2 @ $11M & 1 @ $5M) 2 WRs for an average of $9 million - $18 million spent (1 at $12-13M & 1 @ $5-6M) 1 TE for $7 million 1 backup QB for $3 million 1 defensive player at $6 million 4 depth players for an average of $1.5 million - $6 million spent That's $67 million spent leaving $27 million in cap space. In the draft, add 1-2 WRs, at least 1 OL, 1 RB, 2 defensive players, rest best player available. What this illustrates is that they can go after some big name free agents if they want and leave themselves in an enviable position at the draft to truly go with the best player available and/or be able to trade down and amass more picks for now or the future. If they want K. Williams and Alexander back, they have plenty of room to do that, they made a combined $8 million this year, they would probably cost a little less in '19 since they're a year older, plus they would be 1 year deals so it wouldn't impact roster/cap management beyond 2019. We are probably looking at about 20 new players on the team for 2019 which would be remarkable given the roster churn already in the first 2 years of McDermott/Beane. It doesn't always work like this...You can structure the contracts to give cap relief up front and take it more in later years when you will be getting rid of some other contracts, etc... They have a ton of flexibility and they don't need to spend all of it this year either...
BuffaloBill Posted December 19, 2018 Posted December 19, 2018 It’s not likely that the Bills will let Shady go. I also think they will be cautious about putting themselves in cap jail with a splashy high dollar free agent(s). The league is full of high priced FA’s who have not played up to the money. I would not be shocked if they underspend what they have available. 1 1
LABILLBACKER Posted December 19, 2018 Posted December 19, 2018 Barkley will not need $3M and he'll be fine as Allen's backup. I'm not thrilled with keeping Shady & Clay next year but if it's less of a cap hit than so be it, just reduce their touches. We have to be aggressive in FA with O-line and WR's. And the same positions in the draft plus TE & RB. Sean will have to be very selective in choosing defensive players as 75% of this off season should be focused on offense.
John from Riverside Posted December 19, 2018 Posted December 19, 2018 17 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said: It’s not likely that the Bills will let Shady go. I also think they will be cautious about putting themselves in cap jail with a splashy high dollar free agent(s). The league is full of high priced FA’s who have not played up to the money. I would not be shocked if they underspend what they have available. I think they have some guys targeted and a price point already in mind...... 1
oldmanfan Posted December 19, 2018 Posted December 19, 2018 My guess is they will target some O linemen we haven't heard all that much about, sort of like Hyde and Poyer when they got them. Same with WRs or TEs. Draft I expect a pass rushing DE or OLB in round 1 as that is where the real talent lies in the draft, then focus on the lines and WRs and a CB and RB somewhere I there. Beane is not the type to spend wildly, and he also has to know they need to spend resources on the offensive side of the ball to protect their young QB.
ctk232 Posted December 19, 2018 Posted December 19, 2018 28 minutes ago, RyanC883 said: A WR at 12-13 mill is about right for this group of WR's for a top target. Could also sign a bunch of "fits" for less. I'd target Golden Tate, currently making 6.2 million. Cole Beasley could be a Zay Jones upgrade, currently at 3.2 million; and John Brown (Ravens) could be a great fit here. Currently at about 5 mill. Geronimo Allison could be another nice grab. Looks like he is finishing his rookie contract, and only 25 years old. Not sure I'd agree with this in all honesty - Tate has already been overpaid and has fallen flat in Philly, he wouldn't be worth the salary we'd end up paying him to under-perform in a role we expect him to fulfill. I wouldn't call Beasley an upgrade necessarily - keep Zay while he's on his rookie contract as he at least still has room to grow - Beasley isn't going to get any better, and will only get more expensive and older. John Brown snubbed us last year, and given the Ravens success this year it's highly unlikely he leaves Baltimore for anything. Honestly, our best WR options in the offseason (outside of Funchess and T. Williams - who also won't become true WR1s imo) will either come via a trade or the draft. Don't look too far into the FA pool where we would over-commit cap to a WR that would be better spent for talent along the OL via FA. Nutshell: there is no WR1 in the current FA pool this year worth the money we'd spend for the result we'd get. 1
NewEra Posted December 19, 2018 Posted December 19, 2018 (edited) 48 minutes ago, John from Riverside said: Ok so Clay really only costs 4 million dollars next year......after years of overpaying this guy he actually is dirt cheap going into this next season......just get a BETTER TE to be the number 1 and he can be the number 2 I would keep Shady but draft a RB Sure he’s dirt cheap but he’s also dirt useless in the passing game. I’m really hoping we can add a very good tight end in FA or the draft. We’ve never had a great tight end. I feel josh allens attributes would give a stud TE the huge advantage in getting open in mismatches hes is a solid blocking TE Edited December 19, 2018 by NewEra
Dadonkadonk Posted December 19, 2018 Posted December 19, 2018 What the OP and this board is forgetting is there are multiple teams with tons of cap space. Beane overspent on Star, Ivory, and Murphy. Just like any other team they will have to overspend to lure free agents from other teams. There is simply too much cap space available. 2 1
Chuck Wagon Posted December 19, 2018 Posted December 19, 2018 9 minutes ago, Dadonkadonk said: What the OP and this board is forgetting is there are multiple teams with tons of cap space. Beane overspent on Star, Ivory, and Murphy. Just like any other team they will have to overspend to lure free agents from other teams. There is simply too much cap space available. Bingo It's the biggest thing left out when the cap space discussion pops up. The Colts have $30 mil more cap space than we do. 2
PaattMaann Posted December 19, 2018 Posted December 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said: Bingo It's the biggest thing left out when the cap space discussion pops up. The Colts have $30 mil more cap space than we do. good thing they already have a solid o-line (finally). : )
Buddo Posted December 19, 2018 Posted December 19, 2018 9 minutes ago, Dadonkadonk said: What the OP and this board is forgetting is there are multiple teams with tons of cap space. Beane overspent on Star, Ivory, and Murphy. Just like any other team they will have to overspend to lure free agents from other teams. There is simply too much cap space available. Maybe, maybe not. The OP was still way under with his 'spend', so there's plenty of 'wriggle room', especially for an O-Line guy or two. While performance wise it can be argued Beane overpaid for your named trio, we don't really know if he did, as we don't know what (if any) other offers they may have had. If there's so much money going around, it probably isn't 'overspend,' as much as market rates that are being pushed higher, due to teams having plenty of spare cash. Fwiw, in general terms, I like what the OP has outlined. What remains to be seen, is if Beane etc. can identify the right guys to both go after, and to get.
boater Posted December 19, 2018 Posted December 19, 2018 38 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said: I would not be shocked if they underspend what they have available. Concur. The Bills will still have cap room left over after they've done their wheeling and dealing. The FA market has slim pickings and there is going to be bidding wars for quality FA. There are several teams with fat wallets (Jets for example)..there will be high rollers at the FA table. I don't see McBean overbidding like the previous regime had, so the Bills may lose out on some good FA. I hope they can sign some quality OL and WR, but I think it will hard to draw some in at a reasonable price.
Augie Posted December 19, 2018 Posted December 19, 2018 23 minutes ago, Dadonkadonk said: What the OP and this board is forgetting is there are multiple teams with tons of cap space. Beane overspent on Star, Ivory, and Murphy. Just like any other team they will have to overspend to lure free agents from other teams. There is simply too much cap space available. Fortunately, it’s not OUR money! WAIT, if it were my money........... 1
dpberr Posted December 19, 2018 Posted December 19, 2018 Hats off to the OP for the dutiful math homework. What intrigues me is whether the FO will change its approach with any new developments in New England. I'd think optimally if you are the Bills, you want to be the heir apparent in the AFC East if the Patriots signal the start of a rebuilding phase. You don't want to be the loser of that arms race because your process says "five year plan" but your window is telling you it's now.
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted December 19, 2018 Posted December 19, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, whatdrought said: Didn’t Sammy Watkins get like 18 million alone last year? i don’t know what WR will be worth 9million. Also, starting Olinemen that are worth anything will clear at least 10million. Sammy shouldn’t be any sort of benchmark when considering how to spread your cap around. Zay Jones is having a similarly prolific year in a much less productive offense. Edited December 19, 2018 by Over 29 years of fanhood
JoshAllenHasBigHands Posted December 19, 2018 Posted December 19, 2018 If you think about the salary cap in terms of just one year, you are doing it wrong. That cap space isn't just for next year. Its also for the year after and the year after, and its there to help resign guys coming up through the system. The bills wont, and shouldn't, just sign a bunch of free agents next year because they have some extra money for the first time.
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