2018 QB Class Future Projections

[corta765]

With two weeks to go in the season we have a pretty good sample for all of the QB's in the big 5 of Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen, & Jackson. So after year 1 this is where I see each of these QB's pacing/turning into. Mind you things change rapidly so if Mayfield collapses into a black hole of awful play it can happen, this is just off the first season.

 

Baker Mayfield- John Elway/Steve Young hybrid. With all due respect for Allen who is incredibly fun to watch, Mayfield is something else to watch at QB. From the moment he has taken over as the QB the Browns are 6-6 and he his been amazing to see make plays all over. His growth is certainly evident and his mobility strikes me as watching Young or Elway with his eyes always looking downfield to beat you along with a competitive fire that is infectious as all hell. Good for the long suffering fans of Cleveland and I hope he turns into a great like these two (just not at the expense of the Bills SB chances lol). Of any of these QB's becoming an all timer Baker after year 1 would be the easy bet.

 

Sam Darnold- Tony Romo. Like Allen who had to miss time and comeback stronger Darnold has done exactly that. Rival or not Darnold certainly has had his moments and the last few games really has shown some great play. His propensity to make big plays but turn the ball over reminds me of Tony Romo who could do a ton and really had a good feel for the offense. He isn't a fiery leader like Mayfield/Allen but with some more talent around him he could make the Jets a contender for a decade.

 

Josh Allen- Cam Newton + Brett Farve lite. The kid can ball, I was a Rosen guy admittedly but even I am have been impressed with his growth and talent. He has Cam's size and playmaking mixed with Farve's fire, arm, and just general ability to make you go are you kidding me. I don't think Allen will ever be the most accurate QB but he will improve enough to be a mix of these two. Farve is an all time great I don't know if Allen can hit that stratosphere at this point, but I think he will be really good like Newton who is successful and Farve was a QB you had to watch because of his ability to say holy sh*t how did he do that for both good and some bad.

 

Josh Rosen- David Carr/Joey Harrington. The list of QB's who have succeeded after getting beat up the way he has and with such instability at coach/FO is not long. Situation matters big time for a QB and watching Rosen it just feels like a guy being thrown to the wolves and it's up to him to figure it out. What is most worrisome with Rosen is the fact his play has actually declined from the start of the season. He was never said to be the leader the previous three were and his best talents being quick release and accuracy are being wasted in this offense. Outside of a coach like Bruce Arains coming back or some other QB whisperer coming in with a fast west coast style attack I just do not see him making it.

 

Lamar Jackson- Taller Doug Flutie + Steve McNair lite. He certainly is fun to watch and Baltimore is managing his first season perfectly so he can make plays but is not put in a bad situation. Watching him makes me think of what Doug Flutie could've been like if he was taller and I think his ceiling could be close to McNair who was a superb QB who could move but tear you up passing wise. I am not sure Jackson will be as accurate as a McNair but like Allen I think he can do enough where it doesn't really matter and your winning with a good QB. My major question with Jackson is what happens when he spied regularly and asked to throw more then 25 times in a game? Allen was faced with this question and did well against the Lions and against the Dolphins where he basically willed the team solo while throwing for 33 times. I would be very intrigued to see what a coach like Sean McVay or possible future coach like Lincoln Riley would do with a player like Jackson.

Edited December 19, 2018 by corta765

[RoyBatty is alive]

Pretty good analysis, especially on Josh Rosen, i can see the David Carr analogy and him being ruined by the Cardinals.  His mental toughness and emotional stability were somewhat of a pre-existing issue.

 

On Allen, I would say that he might be the most naturally gifted athlete to every play the position, arguably the strongest arm to ever play.  His running ability, at least for the scheme he is in is undeniable and record breaking.  He effectively had three 100 yard plus games in a row.  Allen is a great leader, willing to work hard, he not only can but i think he should be something special.  Give him so receivers that get separation and make circus catches routinely instead of dropping balls and watch how much more "accurate" he gets. His ceiling is as high as any QB i can recall.  He "star" WR is a rookie UDFA that we cut once this year, his TE is no longer any good and his O Line is abysmall. 

Edited December 19, 2018 by RoyBatty is alive

[BuffaloHokie13]

Baker Mayfield - Russ Wilson lite

It's very difficult to say he'll be an equal to (or surpass) Russ Wilson based on the current sample size, but even a lite version is pretty good news for Cleveland in my opinion.

 

Sam Darnold - Matt Stafford

He'll have inflated stats, probably have poorly timed turnovers, and ultimately will not win anything of significance.

 

Josh Allen - Daunte Culpepper/Steve McNair

Dual threat on a large frame.

 

Josh Rosen - Matt Ryan

Quick, efficient decisions. Polished mechanics.

 

Lamar Jackson - Mike Vick lite

Exciting to watch, but how long will he be effective?

[Antonio]

I agree with a lot of what you posted.

 

I hope Rosen gets a 2nd/3rd chance ala Alex Smith and can turn his career arround.

 

It would be amaizing if this QB class can be compared to the 83 class and if we can have a Allen vs Darnold for the next 12/15 years (with the Pats & Phins fighting for 3rd place of the AFCE) and Allen vs Baker in the playoffs ala Brady vs Manning.

1 minute ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Baker Mayfield - Russ Wilson lite

It's very difficult to say he'll be an equal to (or surpass) Russ Wilson based on the current sample size, but even a lite version is pretty good news for Cleveland in my opinion.

 

Sam Darnold - Matt Stafford

He'll have inflated stats, probably have poorly timed turnovers, and ultimately will not win anything of significance.

 

Josh Allen - Daunte Culpepper/Steve McNair

Dual threat on a large frame.

 

Josh Rosen - Matt Ryan

Quick, efficient decisions. Polished mechanics.

 

Lamar Jackson - Mike Vick lite

Exciting to watch, but how long will he be effective?

 

Oh boy I hope you are wrong, but I can see them like that as well. I would not mind McNair, but I was never a fan of big Daunte, Moss helped him a loooot.

[BuffaloHokie13]

3 minutes ago, Antonio said:

Oh boy I hope you are wrong, but I can see them like that as well. I would not mind McNair, but I was never a fan of big Daunte, Moss helped him a loooot.

We need our version of Moss (who I doubt will be as good, certainly can't expect that) to help Allen out. Ideally we hit on someone big in the draft!

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

Allen reminds me a lot of Elway with his arm and ability to scramble.   Elway was a career 56% passer who throws a lot like the way Allen does... but Elway found ways to win and that’s more important than overrated stats.

 

[racketmaster]

Good thoughts. Simple comparisons: Mayfield - Brees, Darnold - Romo, and Allen - Favre. All 3 have a chance to reach those comparisons if they avoid major injury, have proper coaching and are surrounded by enough talent.

 

Rosen will likely end up a bust. Nothing was ever special about his arm, mobility, size, strength, elusiveness, character and/or leadership. He may stick around the league for a while like Jeff George or Jay Cutler but he is not someone I would want as my franchise qb.

 

Jackson should be a good qb for the next several years but I don't see him ever being a long-term answer. A good player comparison is Taylor but Jackson his a more dynamic running threat. I think Taylor was a more careful passer but I just don't see Jackson ever developing enough to become a pocket passer. That's just not what he is and there is nothing wrong with it. Some games he will have great success when defenses are not disciplined in their containment responsibilities and other games he will be stymied when spied by an athletic linebacker/safety or when defenses remain disciplined. We saw this with Taylor, some games were quite successful and others were frustrating. But with Taylor he was always protective of the football and that usually kept us in games even if the offense was struggling to move the ball. Again, he is a qb that is hard to prepare for and should keep Baltimore around 9-10 wins each year. After a few years, he will begin to take more hits and the team or his representatives will want to keep him in the pocket more. He will be less of a runner and less effective as a result as I just don't see him being able to make a big leap as a passer (frame is slender for pocket qb, does not have a big arm and he is slow to make anticipatory throws). He still gives Baltimore a better option than Flacco and probably was worth a late first round pick.

[Albany,n.y.]

I wouldn't be so quick to write off Rosen.  Let's see him next season before reaching any conclusions.  I think it's natural for Bills fans to want to see the guy we didn't want fail, but at this point rumors of his career death are greatly exaggerated.  

[MJS]

Hard to argue, but also hard to support. We still don't know how these guys will turn out.

[Antonio]

13 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

We need our version of Moss (who I doubt will be as good, certainly can't expect that) to help Allen out. Ideally we hit on someone big in the draft!

 

Well, everybody seem to like that guy from Arizona. I don´t like him that much, but if we take him I hope we have our Moss.

[corta765]

14 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

Allen reminds me a lot of Elway with his arm and ability to scramble.   Elway was a career 56% passer who throws a lot like the way Allen does... but Elway found ways to win and that’s more important than overrated stats.

 

Well remember different era. Elway may have been 56% but for the time that was good. Allen needs to just get to 60-61% and that'll work.

10 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

I wouldn't be so quick to write off Rosen.  Let's see him next season before reaching any conclusions.  I think it's natural for Bills fans to want to see the guy we didn't want fail, but at this point rumors of his career death are greatly exaggerated.  

 

I wanted and actively have watched him hoping the best. The reasons for his demise are not self inflicted and very much situational. He has a rookie HC wayyy over his head whose' OC ran a very old dated scheme that was not updated for today and 4 of his 5 O- line man are out injured. The problem is unlike Allen or Watson who both have been hit in bunches early on, he doesn't have the ability to run and make plays. They basically need a new O-line, 2 WR's, new OC, new Head coach, and a lot of help on defense next season. That is a tall order and historically QB's like Rosen who get beaten like that ala David Carr have a low success rate. Doesn't mean he can't pull a Goff but he really needs a visionary mind at OC/HC given the issues they have.

14 minutes ago, MJS said:

Hard to argue, but also hard to support. We still don't know how these guys will turn out.

 

Kind of what made this fun to write is to see how close are far things are next year.

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

18 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

I wouldn't be so quick to write off Rosen.  Let's see him next season before reaching any conclusions.  I think it's natural for Bills fans to want to see the guy we didn't want fail, but at this point rumors of his career death are greatly exaggerated.  

I agree with the point of your post, however I would argue 90% or more of Bills fans wanted Rosen.

[klos63]

1 hour ago, corta765 said:

With two weeks to go in the season we have a pretty good sample for all of the QB's in the big 5 of Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen, & Jackson. So after year 1 this is where I see each of these QB's pacing/turning into. Mind you things change rapidly so if Mayfield collapses into a black hole of awful play it can happen, this is just off the first season.

 

Baker Mayfield- John Elway/Steve Young hybrid. With all due respect for Allen who is incredibly fun to watch, Mayfield is something else to watch at QB. From the moment he has taken over as the QB the Browns are 6-6 and he his been amazing to see make plays all over. His growth is certainly evident and his mobility strikes me as watching Young or Elway with his eyes always looking downfield to beat you along with a competitive fire that is infectious as all hell. Good for the long suffering fans of Cleveland and I hope he turns into a great like these two (just not at the expense of the Bills SB chances lol). Of any of these QB's becoming an all timer Baker after year 1 would be the easy bet.

 

Sam Darnold- Tony Romo. Like Allen who had to miss time and comeback stronger Darnold has done exactly that. Rival or not Darnold certainly has had his moments and the last few games really has shown some great play. His propensity to make big plays but turn the ball over reminds me of Tony Romo who could do a ton and really had a good feel for the offense. He isn't a fiery leader like Mayfield/Allen but with some more talent around him he could make the Jets a contender for a decade.

 

Josh Allen- Cam Newton + Brett Farve lite. The kid can ball, I was a Rosen guy admittedly but even I am have been impressed with his growth and talent. He has Cam's size and playmaking mixed with Farve's fire, arm, and just general ability to make you go are you kidding me. I don't think Allen will ever be the most accurate QB but he will improve enough to be a mix of these two. Farve is an all time great I don't know if Allen can hit that stratosphere at this point, but I think he will be really good like Newton who is successful and Farve was a QB you had to watch because of his ability to say holy sh*t how did he do that for both good and some bad.

 

Josh Rosen- David Carr/Joey Harrington. The list of QB's who have succeeded after getting beat up the way he has and with such instability at coach/FO is not long. Situation matters big time for a QB and watching Rosen it just feels like a guy being thrown to the wolves and it's up to him to figure it out. What is most worrisome with Rosen is the fact his play has actually declined from the start of the season. He was never said to be the leader the previous three were and his best talents being quick release and accuracy are being wasted in this offense. Outside of a coach like Bruce Arains coming back or some other QB whisperer coming in with a fast west coast style attack I just do not see him making it.

 

Lamar Jackson- Taller Doug Flutie + Steve McNair lite. He certainly is fun to watch and Baltimore is managing his first season perfectly so he can make plays but is not put in a bad situation. Watching him makes me think of what Doug Flutie could've been like if he was taller and I think his ceiling could be close to McNair who was a superb QB who could move but tear you up passing wise. I am not sure Jackson will be as accurate as a McNair but like Allen I think he can do enough where it doesn't really matter and your winning with a good QB. My major question with Jackson is what happens when he spied regularly and asked to throw more then 25 times in a game? Allen was faced with this question and did well against the Lions and against the Dolphins where he basically willed the team solo while throwing for 33 times. I would be very intrigued to see what a coach like Sean McVay or possible future coach like Lincoln Riley would do with a player like Jackson.

Pretty fair assessment - I think Darnold is going to be a star.  Looks like an excellent QB class. Quite a benefit for the league.

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

28 minutes ago, corta765 said:

Well remember different era. Elway may have been 56% but for the time that was good. Allen needs to just get to 60-61% and that'll work.

 

 

When you say 60-61% will work - what exactly does that mean or equate to?  More wins? - hardly.  Derek Carr has a season 68% completion percentage this year; how's that working out for him?  

 

 

Edited December 19, 2018 by Lieutenant Aldo Raine

[Baba Booey]

I'll admit, I wanted Darnold and would have taken him if we had the number one pick. But with the two Josh's there when we picked, I wanted Rosen. As of now and hopefully in the future we picked the right one!

[Nextmanup]

55 minutes ago, MJS said:

Hard to argue, but also hard to support. We still don't know how these guys will turn out.

I think Mayfield has shown enough to know he'll be OK.

The rest are all works in progress.  

 

[corta765]

6 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

When you say 60-61% will work - what exactly does that mean or equate to?  More wins? - hardly.  Derek Carr has a season 68% completion percentage this year; how's that working out for him?  

 

 

 

Oh I am not disagreeing with you. Alex Smith for years was incredibly accurate yet he was a fringe Top 12 guy. Chad Pennington was accurate yet didn't have the arm especially after injury so accuracy is not everything. But Allen does miss 5-6 throws a game give or take, I want that down to 2-3 because it makes him more deadly. His floor already feels Taylor esq in terms of offensive production so that's good, but we are in it for his growth and potential.

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

5 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

Oh I am not disagreeing with you. Alex Smith for years was incredibly accurate yet he was a fringe Top 12 guy. Chad Pennington was accurate yet didn't have the arm especially after injury so accuracy is not everything. But Allen does miss 5-6 throws a game give or take, I want that down to 2-3 because it makes him more deadly. His floor already feels Taylor esq in terms of offensive production so that's good, but we are in it for his growth and potential.

That number will come down as he gains more experience and continues to hone his craft.  I think the front office thought about the direction the Bills offense and they wanted a aggressive downfield attack and settled on three QBs at #7 - Mayfield, Darnold, or Allen and figured one the three would be there.  I could be wrong, but I am not sure Rosen or Jackson fit that narrative.  If Denver took Allen at #5, then maybe Buffalo would have settled with Rosen.  All in the rear view mirror now, but I interpret Daboll's offensive scheme as a lower percentage yet aggressive approach, which with a raw prospect like Allen will have wow plays and WTF plays.  I think if the Bills wanted a more high percentage - conservative approach they would have preferred Mayfield or Rosen.  

[MJS]

44 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

I think Mayfield has shown enough to know he'll be OK.

The rest are all works in progress.  

 

Probably. But we all thought RGIII would be great after his stellar rookie year. We all thought Goff would be a bust after his terrible rookie year.

 

It's hard the peg these guys until they are showing consistency year in and year out.

 

But honestly I hope all these guys are really good, because we need a new crop of good QB's to replace some of the elites we'll be losing soon, like Brady, Brees, etc.

[Bill Murray]

as a fan of the league, the one thing that is AMAZING is that between Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Jackson, and then throw in Mahomes and Deshaun Watson, all these QBs are in the AFC.  Years and years to come of marquee QB matchups reminiscent of Kelly, Marino, Elway, Moon, Kosar, Esiason etc.  

 

Unfortunately for us Bills fans, it makes the road to the super bowl more difficult for years to come, but at least should be a treat to watch.  

Edited December 19, 2018 by Bill Murray