Josh Allen’s Adjusted Completion Percentage = 72.7%

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Targets includes stuff like being the guy in the neighborhood where the QB throws it away, not to mention just bad throws that go ten feet over his head. It's not a good measure of how well a receiver is doing, partly for the reasons above and partly because it's half on the QB.

 

1st Q 1:06 Allen throws to Zay's knees, catch, 11 yards

 

1st Q 00:26 Allen with a terrible throw, should never have been thrown and was underthrown besides, is intercepted on the sidelines as a defender undercuts the route four yards in front of Zay, but luckily he is ruled out of bounds on a call that was not clear at all.

 

2nd Q 00:13 Long bomb, 52 yards past LOS, on the left side, with Allen taking a long shot near the end of the half. The CB, Slay, is in front of Jones on the inside, preventing Jones from getting past. Jones steps on Slay's foot and they both lose their balance. Slay starts to fall but leans back to knock it away. Jones couldn't leap or fight well after stepping on the foot. The throw was a bit inside, as Slay had inside leverage.

 

3rd Q 8:22 Zay has half a step but isn't wide open. The safety is coming over but won't get there in time, as Jones is running towards the pylon. Allen overthrows him about 30 yards downfield.

 

4th Q 3:54 Zay coming over the middle sixteen yards deep. Ball is high, Zay leaps. Tough ball, thrown hard and high but though it was far from an easy catch (and it could have been, the CB was behind and nobody was anywhere in front of Jones, it could have been thrown with touch) it was catchable.

 

4th 13:47 A 17 yard comeback on the right near the sideline. Good throw, knocked away. Slay was behind Jones as Jones stopped and grabbed Jones, stopping him from coming back towards the ball. Should've been a penalty, IMHO.

 

So Zay got his hands on two of them. Not six.

 

 

 

Zay looks - to me - like a young guy showing improvement and promise but hiccups. Much like Allen, really. Both of them need to improve, both of them have a chance to do so with time.

 

Yea I am by no means a Zay defender but basically the 6 targets on Sunday broke down as:

 

1 Zay catch

1 Zay drop

1 bad Allen throw

1 non connection on a low % deep ball

2 Zay beaten by a genuinely elite cornerback

[WhyteDwarf]

10 hours ago, Juice_32 said:

 

What if he's at 50% next year and we're 10-4?

 

That would be great, but it would also be fluke-ish and unsustainable in terms of a dominant franchise for years to come.

[gjv001]

9 hours ago, inaugural balls said:

 

Hi - allow me to introduce myself.

 

I'm sarcastic.

 

This video gets me all chilly...

Thanks. You had me fooled. Merry Christmas and GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Trogdor]

On 12/17/2018 at 12:25 PM, Phil The Thrill said:

 

Rosen’s personnel is better and he has less wins.

This just isn't true at all. They actually have a worse line. It doesn't make Allen's stats any better to make false representations of other teams. Allen is showing some great strengths and some of the same weaknesses. It will be exciting to see if he can continue to develop. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

9 hours ago, inaugural balls said:

Hi - allow me to introduce myself.

 

I'm sarcastic.

with a name like inaugural balls who would have guessed?! 

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I am by no means a Zay defender but basically the 6 targets on Sunday broke down as:

 

1 Zay catch

1 Zay drop

1 bad Allen throw

1 non connection on a low % deep ball

2 Zay beaten by a genuinely elite cornerback

Facts don't seem to work on some people.    (but I'm sure you are well aware of that  )  

[Doc]

Is there an "every pass thrown by josh allen against the lions" video?  There's usually one on youtube after every game but I can't find one.

[thebandit27]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I am by no means a Zay defender but basically the 6 targets on Sunday broke down as:

 

1 Zay catch

1 Zay drop

1 bad Allen throw

1 non connection on a low % deep ball

2 Zay beaten by a genuinely elite cornerback

 

I'm assuming that 1 of the two "Zay beaten" plays was on the 3-and-out that started with the missed connection to Deonte on the deep ball?

 

I was pretty disappointed with his effort on the play to which I think you're referring. Kind of waited on the ball, whereas attacking it might've drawn a Slay DPI (as it did on the following series) or even given him a chance to make a play on the ball.

 

Other than that I agree 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

..take any batch of stats and you can manipulate them into a "feel good story".......

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I'm assuming that 1 of the two "Zay beaten" plays was on the 3-and-out that started with the missed connection to Deonte on the deep ball?

 

I was pretty disappointed with his effort on the play to which I think you're referring. Kind of waited on the ball, whereas attacking it might've drawn a Slay DPI (as it did on the following series) or even given him a chance to make a play on the ball.

 

Other than that I agree 

 

Yea that play. I am not saying was blameless but it is a total mismatch talent wise that play. 

[HappyDays]

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Targets includes stuff like being the guy in the neighborhood where the QB throws it away, not to mention just bad throws that go ten feet over his head. It's not a good measure of how well a receiver is doing, partly for the reasons above and partly because it's half on the QB.

 

1st Q 1:06 Allen throws to Zay's knees, catch, 11 yards

 

1st Q 00:26 Allen with a terrible throw, should never have been thrown and was underthrown besides, is intercepted on the sidelines as a defender undercuts the route four yards in front of Zay, but luckily he is ruled out of bounds on a call that was not clear at all.

 

2nd Q 00:13 Long bomb, 52 yards past LOS, on the left side, with Allen taking a long shot near the end of the half. The CB, Slay, is in front of Jones on the inside, preventing Jones from getting past. Jones steps on Slay's foot and they both lose their balance. Slay starts to fall but leans back to knock it away. Jones couldn't leap or fight well after stepping on the foot. The throw was a bit inside, as Slay had inside leverage.

 

3rd Q 8:22 Zay has half a step but isn't wide open. The safety is coming over but won't get there in time, as Jones is running towards the pylon. Allen overthrows him about 30 yards downfield.

 

4th Q 3:54 Zay coming over the middle sixteen yards deep. Ball is high, Zay leaps. Tough ball, thrown hard and high but though it was far from an easy catch (and it could have been, the CB was behind and nobody was anywhere in front of Jones, it could have been thrown with touch) it was catchable.

 

4th 13:47 A 17 yard comeback on the right near the sideline. Good throw, knocked away. Slay was behind Jones as Jones stopped and grabbed Jones, stopping him from coming back towards the ball. Should've been a penalty, IMHO.

 

So Zay got his hands on two of them. Not six.

 

 

 

Zay looks - to me - like a young guy showing improvement and promise but hiccups. Much like Allen, really. Both of them need to improve, both of them have a chance to do so with time.

 

I wasn't trying to say Zay had 5 drops. Just that when we target him the offense isn't moving. If we're grading him against the Lions sure let's take away the 2 uncatchable passes. But let's also add in the play that was called a PI since he could have made that catch too with good strength and technique. That's 5 catchable balls and he only caught 1. Yeah they would have all been somewhat tough catches. That's the NFL. They are made tougher because he has no ability to consistently get separation and he seemingly struggles to track the ball. If he can't separate, catch, or track the ball at a high level, what can he do that makes him a worthy starter? I'm under no illusions that McKenzie is a great or even good wide receiver, but when we throw him the ball it ends up in his hands more often than not. This is a 2nd straight year where we are making excuses for Zay causing more negative plays than positive. There's still a chance he develops into even a competent starter but I'm not holding my breath.

[stinky finger]

4 hours ago, gjv001 said:

Thanks. You had me fooled. Merry Christmas and GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

All good - merry Xmas!!

[Tcali]

On 12/19/2018 at 4:46 PM, oldmanfan said:

 

Another guy conflating accuracy with completions.  Another guy who has no idea what accuracy really is and how it's actually measured.  Allen has growth to do and things to work in.  But when are these false analyses going to stop?

i agree. 

On 12/19/2018 at 4:37 PM, thebandit27 said:

 

Saying that he only throws half his passes accurately is not being realistic; its hyperbole.

 

then how much less than 50% is it?

[Thurman#1]

On 12/21/2018 at 12:51 AM, HappyDays said:

 

I wasn't trying to say Zay had 5 drops. Just that when we target him the offense isn't moving. If we're grading him against the Lions sure let's take away the 2 uncatchable passes. But let's also add in the play that was called a PI since he could have made that catch too with good strength and technique. That's 5 catchable balls and he only caught 1. Yeah they would have all been somewhat tough catches. That's the NFL. They are made tougher because he has no ability to consistently get separation and he seemingly struggles to track the ball. If he can't separate, catch, or track the ball at a high level, what can he do that makes him a worthy starter? I'm under no illusions that McKenzie is a great or even good wide receiver, but when we throw him the ball it ends up in his hands more often than not. This is a 2nd straight year where we are making excuses for Zay causing more negative plays than positive. There's still a chance he develops into even a competent starter but I'm not holding my breath.

 

 

Yeah, it ends up in McKenzie's hands more often when we throw to him? I guess a bit more. McKenzie has 18 receptions for 30 targets, 60%, while Jones has 50 catches for 93 targets, 53.7%. That's probably statistically significant, though 30 targets for McKenzie is very little to be sure of how much we know. Not a very big difference, though, particularly when Jones is producing 11.7 YPC and McKenzie only 9.9 YPC. They're running different routes, getting different coverages.

 

McKenzie is running an awful lot of little three yard and four yard quick routes. This game - the Lions - is a pretty good example of that.

 

In the first drive, three passes to McKenzie, two where he takes two steps and cuts and one where he takes a step back and catches a WR quick hitter. Three more targets that I found, two into zone coverage where he quickly found a hole in the coverage and stopped and Allen quickly found him while the defense closed and hit him from behind after the catch and only one into man-to-man where it wasn't a quick hitter well in front of a CB who'd been playing off. You'll make a lot more catches on easier routes like that. Zay was getting man-to-man coverage from Darius Slay most of the day and on I believe all of his targets, and it wasn't a bunch of quick hitters the way it was to McKenzie.

 

Jones is their #1 and teams work harder to defend him than McKenzie and a good example is that Pro Bowler and elite CB Darius Slay was on Jones nearly all day long that day.

 

Your argument that the PI play was catchable is at absolute best very questionable. I just looked at that in slo-mo and Slay had his hand completely around Jones, used that to pull Jones right to him, which trapped his left hand completely out of the play. Zay was going towards that with only one hand available to make that catch and a guy wrapped around him. There's a reason that was called defensive PI (a success for the receiver, by the way). Making that catch would have been a Beckhamesque kind of feat.

 

Jones is still a work-in-progress. He absolutely does need to get better. But he continues improving and shows signs of having a good future. Against the Pats he went 5 catches for 9 targets, producing 67 yards and a TD, while McKenzie managed one catch on eight targets for eight yards.