Charting Allen's throws vs. Lions

[VW82]

Back by popular demand is my attempt to go through and categorize each of Josh's throws so we can see how he's progressing as a passer beyond the traditional stats or conjecture. I'm adding conclusions after each description to be categorized, so we can look at more things than just bad throws. Link to previous week's thread at the bottom. Here we go.

 

1st quarter:

 

12:14 - underneath throw complete to Mckenzie for four yards (complete)

11:35 - Josh throws quick left to Mckenzie for nine yards and a first down (complete) 

9:40 - quick throw right to Mckenzie behind the LOS, nice YAC (complete)

9:07 - play action roll out right. No one's open. (incomplete, throwaway)

2:30 - nice pocket, lots of time. Allen finds Foster for eight yards and a first. (complete)

1:07 - lots of time, Allen finds Zay for seven yards with a really hard throw. (complete)

0:26 - Allen gets chased out of the pocket right but almost throws a pick along the sideline (incomplete, bad throw/decision)

 

Summary:  5-7 passing, one throwaway, one bad throw / decision

 

2nd quarter: 

 

10:00 - Nice throw over the middle to Mckenzie for 11 and a first. (complete)

9:25 - play action with a nice throw by Josh complete to Foster for 25 yards. (complete, big time throw)

8:56 - we take a shot to Foster on a post route which Foster messes up in his adjustment to the ball but still draws the PI (penalty, big time throw) 

3:46 - play action over the middle to Mckenzie for 16 yards and a first. (complete)

2:44 - play action roll out to the right. (incomplete, throwaway)

2:37 - Allen thinks he has a free play and takes a shot down the sideline (incomplete)

0:33 - throw short and complete to Mckenzie for three yards (complete)

0:14 - Allen scrambled around and throws a bomb that's more or less on target. Defender makes a nice play to knock away from Zay. (incomplete)

 

Summary: 4-7 passing, one throwaway, two big time throws

 

3rd quarter: 

 

12:52 - quick throw out and throw to Ford for seven yards. (complete)

8:33 - Allen has tonnes of time, doesn't like what he sees and eventually scrambles right, still doesn't like it and throws away (incomplete, throwaway).

8:22 - on 3rd and 6 Allen throws downfield to Zay who's double covered, but he overshoots everyone. (incomplete, bad throw/decision)

5:46 - play action roll out left. Allen throws across his body (on the move) down field to Thompson and over shoots him. Really difficult throw. (incomplete) 

5:40 - tonnes of time in the pocket. Allen eventually finds Foster down field for 31 yards. Foster almost bobbles it OB. (complete, big time throw)

 

Summary: 2-5 passing, one throwaway, one bad throw/decision, one big time throw

 

4th quarter:

 

14:02 - Josh takes a shot down field and puts it this close to being on target. Thompson dives for it and gets his hands on it but can't come up with the catch. (incomplete) **I expect this will be hotly contested. Many will say this is a drop. Here's the deal: if the receiver has to lay out for the ball then it's at least a little on the QB. I'm not saying this was a bad throw. It was almost a great throw, but sometimes almost = incomplete pass**

13:54 - Josh rifles one to Zay over the middle, and he can't hold on. (incomplete, dropped pass)

13:47 - Lots of time in the pocket. Josh throws to Zay along the right sideline but the CB makes a nice play on the ball (incomplete)

11:09 - Again lots of time in the pocket. Josh goes to Zay again in single coverage an this time Zay gets the flag. (penalty)

11:03 - trick play where Allen runs out right then throws back across the field behind LOS to Ford who runs for five yards (complete, penalty)

10:35 - Another great pocket for Allen who completes a beautiful pass to Foster for 42 yards and the TD (complete, big time throw)

5:08 - read option. Allen chooses to keep but then Clay can't get free and so Allen throws it away (incomplete, throwaway)

5:02 - Josh has loads of time, eventually there's a hold on the oline when he scrambles right and throws to the first down market. Dropped INT. (incomplete, bad throw/decision)

2:46 - Josh puts nice touch on a ball to Croom off play action for 25 yards (complete, big time throw)

2:00 - Josh draws the defense off side but misses Foster over the middle (penalty)

 

Summary: 2-7 passing, one throwaway, one dropped pass, one bad throw/decision, one big time throw

 

Game Summary: 13-26 passing, four throwaways, one dropped pass, three bad passes/decisions, four big time throws

 

Much better game from Josh today even though his stats weren't as great.  For comparison, last week he had 7 bad passes/decisions in 36 attempts, so the decision making is improving. Last week he also had three big times throws, four dropped passes, and four throwawys.   

 

 

 

 

Edited December 17, 2018 by VW82

[Max Fischer]

How many would you consider “inaccurate”?

 

You might have a different definition but my idea of accuracy is a “catchable” ball, a reasonable chance it would get caught and/or put in a place to make a positive play.  Even on completed passes, an inaccurate throw made the receiver make a negative play (was wide open and could have made a much more positive play if thrown well). Also take into account pressure and expectation of making a good throw. 

Edited December 17, 2018 by Max Fischer

[VW82]

27 minutes ago, Max Fischer said:

 

How many would you consider “inaccurate”?

 

You might have a different definition but my idea of accuracy is a “catchable” ball, a reasonable chance it would get caught and/or put in a place to make a positive play.  Even on completed passes, an inaccurate throw made the receiver make a negative play (was wide open and could have made a much more positive play if thrown well). Also take into account pressure and expectation of making a good throw. 

 

Great question. I'm attempting to go deeper than just "inaccurate", and actually determine fault. I think three of his 26 throws this week were some version of badly inaccurate / bad throw. He missed the target a number of other times, but you have to take circumstance into account. For example, that 3rd quarter throw to Thomspon. Josh missed him but he was also running to the left sideline and having to throw back across his body. Hard throw to hold against him. Same with the 4th quarter bomb to Thompson. It wasn't either of their fault. A better receiver would have come up with that catch; a better QB wouldn't have required his receiver to lay out for it in the first place. 

 

3 bad throws in 26 attempts this week. We can live with that. 7 bad throws in 36 attempts last week was too high. It sounds overly simplistic but more bad throws = more turnovers, and so I think it's important we look at this stuff.  

Edited December 17, 2018 by VW82

[JoPar_v2]

Good stuff OP!

[transplantbillsfan]

I agree with this one a bit more than last week's.

 

Nice work.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

I’m going to say today there were less dumb and wild throws then there usually are. Allen is at least showing to be not terrible. By this point I was completely out on EJ. Losman and Edwards took a little longer to show they didn’t have it. Allen has that special quality that you can’t put a description on. He also has a lot of amazing physical characteristics. I never wanted Allen and I was pissed when we drafted him but he’s been way better then I expected. I have grown to really like him. I think he might not be bad which is more then I can usually say for a Bills qb. There are things that need improvement but those things are closer to being okay then I expected them to be. Today was probably the most complete game of passing I have seen from Allen and overall I liked what he did. I don’t want him to stop running. I don’t care what usually works in the NFL. I want Allen to do the things HE does well. Not try to be someone else.

[bills11]

The throw on the corner route to foster was very refreshing to see..stood tall in the pocket scanned the entire field and put touch on the ball haven"t seen a bills qb make a throw like that since bledsoe?

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

One dropped pass?  

[Inigo Montoya]

3 hours ago, bills11 said:

The throw on the corner route to foster was very refreshing to see..stood tall in the pocket scanned the entire field and put touch on the ball haven"t seen a bills qb make a throw like that since bledsoe?

 

Agree 100% bills11.

 

If you get a chance to rewatch that touchdown play, look at the pocket Allen has to throw from.  It stood out to me because he never seems to have a chance to set up and deliver a "normal" pass.  On this play he is actually able to set his feet, step into the throw, and he isn't about to get hammered a split second after he releases it.  If Beane can put a quality O-line line in front of Allen and he has a real pocket to throw from, he is going to tear this league up.

 

Edited December 17, 2018 by Inigo Montoya

[oldmanfan]

Good work by the OP.  I don't necessarily agree on the interpretation of each throw, but by breaking it down like that it shows Allen is actually pretty accurate.  Much better than a cursory look at completion percentage.

[Gugny]

You lost me at "one drop."  

[Billsfan1972]

I watched the end of the NE game and the last three passes Brady threw.  All were terrible & not a chance to catch any in a do or die situation.

 

Of course all I thought is if this was Allen, he'd be crucified here.

 

The Bills receivers are garbage and don't make plays.  Outside Foster, there is almost no separation and Zay seems to have leaned from KB as he doesn't come hard for the ball or fights to catch it.

 

Allen pretty much on the money all day, with only a couple of bad passes.  

 

And he also was responsible for two PI that accounted for 66 yards and set up both TDs.

Edited December 17, 2018 by Billsfan1972

[Ramza86]

I will take his 50% completion percentages every single day of the week.

 

People are starting to realize not to look at a stat sheet when it comes to Josh. 

 

This should have been the case weeks ago.