Bucky Brooks: The Blueprint Buffalo Should Replicate to Maximize Josh Allen's Abilities

[wppete]

Allen is going to be a star I. This league. Just keep him healthy and get him some help on offense. 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, N.Y. Orangeman said:

Another lazy route/article by Bucky..shocking.

 

I wonder if Benjamin wrote it for him lol

[Just Joshin']

4 hours ago, HOF4LOU said:

KB will probably excel with Mahomes. Allen has no touch. He throws missiles. Not everyone can catch a missile. Especially off target missiles. 

Yes - he tore it up Thursday night.

[N.Y. Orangeman]

4 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Teams do give young QBs easy one read throws to boost confidence that also pad stats and I think he's simply referring to that. 

I agree with everything save the pad the stats piece.

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, N.Y. Orangeman said:

I agree with everything save the pad the stats piece.

 

Given the entire context of that sentence, I have no heartburn with that piece of it. 

[N.Y. Orangeman]

Fair enough.  Appreciate all you do for them site, 26!  

[FearLess Price]

21 hours ago, greeneblitz said:

Allen is a way better passer than the box score will tell you, its just a matter of time and talent around him before the stats catch up with the eyes.

 

I can def agree with this rite now. Allen isnt as bad as the stat sheet says. Hes playing hero ball too.

 

If this year was a race for rookie franchise QBs Allen would place 3rd or 4th.

 

The thing with JA is his upside is through the roof. 

 

Get him better OL n some weapons and he will flourish.

[Luka]

How many of his picks are bad throws and how many are bad decisions? He could clean up 75% of his INTs by just not throwing across his body. When he feels like doing that he needs to just toss it out of bounds. Also the 2nd most drop percentage in the league as someone mentioned. And those short gimme passes, when does he ever get those? I've been calling for a shorter, quicker passing game all year to develop a rhythm with Foster and McKenzie, get the fast guys in space on the outside, McCoy as well.

[Matt_In_NH]

On 12/14/2018 at 6:52 PM, One Buffalo said:

 

Kelvin Benjamin... if you take away Allen's throws to KB, you will find that his numbers look much better.  The stat I saw was that Allen's percentage goes up to 59% if you take out throws  to KB and Holmes.  

I saw that Allen is last in the league in adjusted completion percentage.  Meaning they account for drops.  Allen’s inaccuracy is not due to Benjamin it’s due to himself.  

[One Buffalo]

8 minutes ago, mattynh said:

I saw that Allen is last in the league in adjusted completion percentage.  Meaning they account for drops.  Allen’s inaccuracy is not due to Benjamin it’s due to himself.  

 

The numbers actually indicate that Benjamin was a factor... here is the stat- 

 

 

[T master]

A young QB's best friend has been said to be a good TE & to say that Clay is a competent weapon for Allen to depend on is not accurate IMHO ! 

 

When he was brought here i thought along with others that he was or could be a really good player for the Bills & he has shown that he is average at best but i think he has ran his coarse .

 

He is always hurt & it's usually his knees so given his contract get the dam things fixed so you can be out there practicing all the time to develop a rep ore with the young QB or any QB the Bills have had for that matter ! The guy just seems to be here to collect on his contract instead of working for it .

 

I think O'leary was a better fit & worked harder in practice & during games than Clay & was definitely a better value & if given a bit bigger role could have been a better & more dependable weapon for Allen the Clay !! 

[Thurman#1]

On 12/15/2018 at 10:03 AM, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Here is where its deceiving.  There is a bigger story around Allen than the stats show.

1. Drops, way too many drops.
2. Pass Protection, he constantly under duress.  This leads to either poor throws at times where he trusts his arm to do too much or he has to throw it away.
3. Penalties, he has had several great throws, even exceptional ones taken away by penalties.
4. Down and Long all the time.  See penalties above as well as the inability to gain yards by our RB's has us frequently in 2nd/3rd and 10 or more yards needed.  
5. WR's do not get separation.  Kid already has to learn NFL defenses, and our WR's struggle to get open on their routes compounds this.  In fact, Zay is mostly a ghost UNLESS Allen is running for his life where can slip away finally from a defender trying to hold coverage that long.  Zay isnt getting open often enough on his actual route.
6. No running game.  This kid in the 3 games since coming back has personally accounted for about 85% of all the offensive yards this team has produced.  You can see him getting winded end of games even, I mean he is already adjusting to a longer season.  But add in the extra exertion from the runs and all the big hits he takes too.  Having to do it all is just making things harder on him.

More importantly...Allen is NOT the same kid as he was before he got hurt.  There is a clear difference in his level of play since coming back where you can see a lot of growth.  He is literally a Clay dropped pass and a ST Blunder away from being 6-2 as a starter and 3-0 since coming back from injury.  Heck, he might have even won the Houston game had he not gotten hurt and allowed Pickerman to give the game away.  So when people point to his year long cummalitve stats to gauge how he is doing now, they are not correctly analyzing his growth and improvement.  

 

No one is claiming he is a finished product by any means, but when you watch the tape, especially the last 3 games, there are very few just missed or way off passes.  I mean he is literally just a few more passes per game being completed away from 60+% completion percentage.  Now factor in all those things, and you can see a ton of places those few more completions can come from that are factoring in from failures of the people around him.  

 

For example...how many more completions you think he will make when you he gets more chances of 3rd and 3 instead of the several times a game he is in 3rd and 10, 3rd and 12, 3rd and 15, 3rd and 20?  How many more will he have when he has less drops?  How many more will he have when he has better receivers who can get open early in routes?  How many more will he have when he has time in the pocket?

 

You see, if you add just 1 more completion per game more with improvement on each of those issues, he would be over a 60% passer already.  Now factor in him as individual continuing to also improve and its not hard to see how he can quickly get above 60%.  

 

 

 

Enough with the "Clay dropped pass" nonsense. Folks, face up to it, Allen was a huge part of the problem on that play. 

 

Clay had nobody within 10 yards of him, wide open in the end zone, and Allen threw the ball extremely inaccurately, turning a sure TD into a pass that was just barely catchable ... maybe. Both guys needed to do better.

 

And yeah, there are problems with drops and with protection ... problems pretty much every other QB in the league faces.

 

Is he "a few more passes per game being completed away from 60+% completion percentage"? Sure. So is every QB in the league a few more passes per game away from improving 10% in completion percentages. If a QB throws 500 passes a year, he's three passes a game from improving 10%. Thing is, getting that much better is not as easy as you're making it sound.

 

That's how football and statistics - and the world, really - works. If you play significantly better, your stats and the impression you leave will improve. But at a certain level it's very hard to make those improvements, and until you make them, you need to deal with what is, not what might be if everything improves a whole bunch. 

 

I respectfully disagree with you that he's gotten more accurate the past few games. I do see him making better decisions and generally having stepped up his game from the time on the bench. But his mechanics are still off and because he's playing he will have little or no time to address that till the off-season, always the big reason he maybe should have sat the bench this year and learned defences and worked like hell on grooving his mechanics. But I see several passes a week that are just off-target.

 

He can absolutely improve, and before the 2nd season is the time you often see the biggest upgrades. I'm hopeful. But while improving the personnel around him will absolutely help, it definitely isn't the whole answer.

Edited December 16, 2018 by Thurman#1

[The Frankish Reich]

On 12/14/2018 at 6:51 PM, matter2003 said:

1) Allen's average air yards per pass are by far the most in the NFL. The longer the pass, the lower the completion percentage.

 

2) Allen has more throwaways per game than pretty much any other QB...many plays are designed rollouts where if nobody is open and he cant run he is told to throw it away. 

 

3) Allen doesn't have a lot of easy checkdown completions to pad his completion percentage because many times Allen doesn't even have a checkdown by design. His checkdown is to run for big chunks of yards.

 

4)Bills WR's have the worst seperation metrics of any WRs in the NFL. This means there are smaller windows for Allen to throw the ball into. This also means more contested catches and drops.

 

5) Allen doesn't throw a lot of passes in a game so if he has a combined 8 throwaways and drops, that affects his completion percentage much more than a guy throwing it 45 times a game.

All true. And given that he's basically been working with an all-new receiving corps other than Zay (Clay just made his auspicious return last week), the routes are exceedingly simple for an NFL team. You don't see all the crossing routes/picks that we even saw tonight with the Browns. It's basically playground stuff, so it's awfully hard to say anything definitive about how good or bad Allen is at reading defenses, anticipating receivers on throws, etc.

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Enough with the "Clay dropped pass" nonsense. Folks, face up to it, Allen was a huge part of the problem on that play. 

 

Clay had nobody within 10 yards of him, wide open in the end zone, and Allen threw the ball extremely inaccurately, turning a sure TD into a pass that was just barely catchable ... maybe. Both guys needed to do better.

 

And yeah, there are problems with drops and with protection ... problems pretty much every other QB in the league faces.

 

Is he "a few more passes per game being completed away from 60+% completion percentage"? Sure. So is every QB in the league a few more passes per game away from improving 10% in completion percentages. If a QB throws 500 passes a year, he's three passes a game from improving 10%. Thing is, getting that much better is not as easy as you're making it sound.

 

That's how football and statistics - and the world, really - works. If you play significantly better, your stats and the impression you leave will improve. But at a certain level it's very hard to make those improvements, and until you make them, you need to deal with what is, not what might be if everything improves a whole bunch. 

 

I respectfully disagree with you that he's gotten more accurate the past few games. I do see him making better decisions and generally having stepped up his game from the time on the bench. But his mechanics are still off and because he's playing he will have little or no time to address that till the off-season, always the big reason he maybe should have sat the bench this year and learned defences and worked like hell on grooving his mechanics. But I see several passes a week that are just off-target.

 

He can absolutely improve, and before the 2nd season is the time you often see the biggest upgrades. I'm hopeful. But while improving the personnel around him will absolutely help, it definitely isn't the whole answer.

This is a joke right.....jesus please tell me your joking here

16 hours ago, Dadonkadonk said:

Allen shouldn't be running this much. It is not a long term recipe for success. They should not be designing any offense around his running ability. Teach this kid to be a pro QB. We want him to be a pass first QB like Rodgers and Roethlisberger not a run/pass guy like RG3, Vick, Cam, or Wilson. I will take the career path of Wilson though. 

And stop throwing interceptions 

So you want to see 5 plus sacks a game

[oldmanfan]

6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Enough with the "Clay dropped pass" nonsense. Folks, face up to it, Allen was a huge part of the problem on that play. 

 

Clay had nobody within 10 yards of him, wide open in the end zone, and Allen threw the ball extremely inaccurately, turning a sure TD into a pass that was just barely catchable ... maybe. Both guys needed to do better.

 

And yeah, there are problems with drops and with protection ... problems pretty much every other QB in the league faces.

 

Is he "a few more passes per game being completed away from 60+% completion percentage"? Sure. So is every QB in the league a few more passes per game away from improving 10% in completion percentages. If a QB throws 500 passes a year, he's three passes a game from improving 10%. Thing is, getting that much better is not as easy as you're making it sound.

 

That's how football and statistics - and the world, really - works. If you play significantly better, your stats and the impression you leave will improve. But at a certain level it's very hard to make those improvements, and until you make them, you need to deal with what is, not what might be if everything improves a whole bunch. 

 

I respectfully disagree with you that he's gotten more accurate the past few games. I do see him making better decisions and generally having stepped up his game from the time on the bench. But his mechanics are still off and because he's playing he will have little or no time to address that till the off-season, always the big reason he maybe should have sat the bench this year and learned defences and worked like hell on grooving his mechanics. But I see several passes a week that are just off-target.

 

He can absolutely improve, and before the 2nd season is the time you often see the biggest upgrades. I'm hopeful. But while improving the personnel around him will absolutely help, it definitely isn't the whole answer.

You're correct that three passes a game, if you throw 36 times, would get Allen from 50% to the magic 60% that so many obsess over.  He averages about 3 throwaways a game because either his line can't block or his receivers can't get open or both.  Thus the reason why completion percentage has nothing to do with accuracy.  Watching everyy throw last week out of 36 there were two, maybe three that were truly inaccurate.  Is that different than most guys?  Maybe.  He has work to do, but so do so many that incorrectly look at stats.

[BullBuchanan]

On 12/14/2018 at 5:03 PM, 26CornerBlitz said:

Saquon Barkley validating Giants' decision; Pete Carroll for COY

 

By Bucky Brooks - NFL.com Analyst

 

Former NFL player and scout Bucky Brooks knows the ins and outs of this league, providing keen insight in his notebook. The topics of this edition include:

 

The Blueprint Buffalo Should Replicate to Maximize Josh Allen's Abilities.

 

All aboard the Josh Allen Experience? OK, it's definitely too premature to be comparing the Billsrookie quarterback to Michael Vick in any capacity -- as in, alluding to the former dual-threat playmaker's memorable Nike commercial. That said, it is time to view Allen as a unique talent at the position with an unorthodox game that can produce positive results.

 

Now, I will be the first to admit to being critical of the Wyoming product during the pre-draft process -- his scattershot accuracy was quite concerning -- but I did believe he could be a Cam Newton-like playmaker with a unique game that a team could build an offense around. When Buffalo selected Allen seventh overall, I immediately thought of Bills head coach Sean McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane, and how they'd both been in Carolina for Newton's MVP season that ended in the Super Bowl.

 

Then I saw Allen's second NFL start in Week 3, when he accounted for 235 yards of total offense and three scores in a 27-6 upset win at Minnesota. The shocking performance gave the football world a glimpse at Allen's talent and potential in an offense that's tailor-made for his skills as a mobile playmaker with A-plus arm talent.

 

Studying the All-22 Coaches Film from that stunning win over the Vikings, I noted that the Bills used a variety of designed QB runs and zone-read concepts to showcase Allen's talent as a runner. The 6-foot-5, 237-pound quarterback bedeviled Mike Zimmer's defense with his combination of skills as a run-pass threat at the position. From his quick-rhythm completions on screens to his teardrop-like deep balls to his impromptu scrambles, Allen terrorized the Vikings as a mobile playmaker. Although it wasn't always pretty, it was effective. And the Bills' coaching staff certainly flashed enough creativity to build a dynamic offense that would help the rookie play to his strengths as a runner and deep-ball thrower. That said, it was apparent Allen was still a work in progress as a QB1 and his coaches would need to find a way to minimize his weaknesses to give Buffalo a chance to win games.

 

After watching Allen become the first quarterback to rush for 100-plus yards in back-to-back games while surpassing Vick as the quarterback with the most rushing yards in a three-game span (335 yards from Week 12-14), I had to go back to the tape to check out No. 17's evolution over the course of his first NFL season. Before I really dug in, though, I took a look at Allen's numbers and was shocked by his inefficiencies as a passer. Allen ranks last among qualified quarterbacks in completion percentage (52.4), pass yards per game (169.4), touchdown-to-interception ratio (5:9) and passer rating (63.3). He also ranks 31st in yards per attempt (6.3). Those numbers are not inspiring, to say the least, but Allen was expected to struggle as a rookie starter, especially given Buffalo's suspect receiving corps. The Billsnot only lack a legitimate WR1, but the team doesn't have an established complementary playmaker outside of Charles Clay and maybe Zay Jones. To his credit, Allen has shown glimpses of being an effective passer between the numbers on intermediate routes like curls and digs. He also flashes enough arm strength to make "wow" throws on the move, which makes him a dangerous player.

Where's the blueprint? This is just a review of what everyone has already seen.

[Thurman#1]

5 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

 

This is a joke right.....jesus please tell me your joking here

 

 

 

Yeah, it's a joke, John. I forgot that Josh laid that pass right in Clay's breadbasket.

 

After the game, Josh took responsibility for losing the game because of that pass. So did Clay. They were both right.

 

Hard to imagine that anyone could ever disagree with you, huh? Anyone disagreeing with you must be joking.

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, it's a joke, John. I forgot that Josh laid that pass right in Clay's breadbasket.

 

After the game, Josh took responsibility for losing the game because of that pass. So did Clay. They were both right.

 

Hard to imagine that anyone could ever disagree with you, huh? Anyone disagreeing with you must be joking.

Don't know if you ever played football, but I did when I was a kid.  Was a receiver actually.  And even in pee wees my coach would tell me if you get two hands on the ball you have to catch it.  Clay has to catch that ball.  Allen could have thrown it one more yard I suppose while running for his life, so Clay would not have had to go down to the ground to get it.  But Clay had two hands on the ball and didn't get the job done.

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

You're correct that three passes a game, if you throw 36 times, would get Allen from 50% to the magic 60% that so many obsess over.  He averages about 3 throwaways a game because either his line can't block or his receivers can't get open or both.  Thus the reason why completion percentage has nothing to do with accuracy.  Watching everyy throw last week out of 36 there were two, maybe three that were truly inaccurate.  Is that different than most guys?  Maybe.  He has work to do, but so do so many that incorrectly look at stats.

 

 

It's not like other QBs don't throw passes away. They do.

 

And yeah, Allen has been inaccurate, at a much higher rate than most QBs. That's why you find a ton of stories about his inaccuracy. It really is that simple.

 

Yeah, three passes a game would get Allen from 50% to the magic 60%. And three passes a game would get most QBs to the magic 70%. Thing is, it's really hard to get that much better. It doesn't sound like much but it's actually an awful lot.

 

There's a reasonable chance he might improve in that way over the offseason. I'm hopeful. But it's far from a layup.

9 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Don't know if you ever played football, but I did when I was a kid.  Was a receiver actually.  And even in pee wees my coach would tell me if you get two hands on the ball you have to catch it.  Clay has to catch that ball.  Allen could have thrown it one more yard I suppose while running for his life, so Clay would not have had to go down to the ground to get it.  But Clay had two hands on the ball and didn't get the job done.

 

 

 

Yes, I did. I was a receiver and a CB, myself.

 

And your coach wasn't being literal. Yes, that's the way a receiver should think. But actually there are plenty of passes even in the pros when very good receivers get two hands on the ball and don't catch it and it's very understandable. When the ball is an inch off the ground and you can't cleanly get your hands underneath is one of those exceptions.

 

Here's another thing your coach probably said, but to the QBs. "If you've got a wide receiver open by ten yards, with absolutely nobody near him, just throw the ball to him and hit him in the numbers." Josh has to throw that ball ... much much better. Josh had a guy wide wide open, had a chance to set his feet and make a full motion, and didn't get the job done. He did a terrific job to find that space, but didn't follow through.

 

Sure, you can make justifications for Josh. But they make absolutely as much sense and no more than the justifications that can be made for Clay. They were both responsible.

 

And Josh himself knows he should have made a better throw, as he made very clear.

 

Edited December 16, 2018 by Thurman#1

[oldmanfan]

8 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

It's not like other QBs don't throw passes away. They do.

 

And yeah, Allen has been inaccurate, at a much higher rate than most QBs. That's why you find a ton of stories about his inaccuracy. It really is that simple.

 

Yeah, three passes a game would get Allen from 50% to the magic 60%. And three passes a game would get most QBs to the magic 70%. Thing is, it's really hard to get that much better. It doesn't sound like much but it's actually an awful lot.

 

There's a reasonable chance he might improve in that way over the offseason. I'm hopeful. But it's far from a layup.

 

 

 

Yes, I did. I was a receiver and a CB, myself.

 

And your coach wasn't being literal. Yes, that's the way a receiver should think. But actually there are plenty of passes even in the pros when very good receivers get two hands on the ball and don't catch it and it's very understandable. When the ball is an inch off the ground and you can't cleanly get your hands underneath is one of those exceptions.

 

Here's another thing your coach probably said, but to the QBs. "If you've got a wide receiver open by ten yards, with absolutely nobody near him, just throw the ball to him and hit him in the numbers." Josh has to throw that ball ... much much better. Josh had a guy wide wide open, had a chance to set his feet and make a full motion, and didn't get the job done. He did a terrific job to find that space, but didn't follow through. And Josh himself knows he should have made a better throw, as he made very clear.

 

I think Allen probably had more time than he thought and could have set his feet more.  And when you say hit him in the numbers, that's all well and good.  But how many QBs even when being set with their feet hit a guy right in the numbers from 50 yards away?  Very few.  Bottom line is Clay has to catch that ball. 

As for all the stats and junk, as I have pointed out a number of times now, people confuse accuracy and precision.  I will mention the dartboard analogy once again.  If you surround the bull's eye consistently but don't hit the center of the bull's eye, you are accurate.  But you are not precise.  If you throw every dart on top of each other, but you are two inches away from the bull's eye, you are precise, but you are not accurate.

 

Allen is pretty accurate; most all his throws are within the catch radius of his receiver where they can make a play.  Last game I saw two throws, one to Thompson and one over the middle to Ike, that were truly inaccurate.  He like may Qbs could stand to be more precise, while also being accurate.  Guys that have high accuracy and high precision are your stars. 

 

Now as for this completion percentage stuff, a true statistical interpretation of such would involve adding a lot more variables into the equation than most do.  Things like the play call on both sides of the ball, quality of the WR and the DBs playing against such, atmospheric conditions, as just a few.  I think it is fairly well established in the college game that many guys have high completion rates because they throw a lot of very short passes to WRs that are better at what they do than the DBs trying to cover.  In the pros you have so many different route combinations, preferences of the OCs, etc it's hard to compare.  Watching the Bills offense, it seems clear their preference right now is to throw down field a lot more than other teams, and that would of course affect completion percentage.  Last game I counted three throw aways and three flat out drops by Allen's receivers, which would have moved his completion rate into the 60's.  Which is why using completion rate for some measure of accuracy is a fallacy.

 

You want to assess his accuracy, the best way is to actually look at all his individual throws.  He is fairly accurate, but needs to be more precise with placement.  The kid, and I emphasize kid, has work to do.  Like many young QBs the game has to slow down, and it looks like it is.  He seems quicker at making reads now, still needs to work on the correct read of course, and he has thrown some very nice balls the past few weeks.  Still misses a few, but all this should improve with time.  Unfortunately in a world of Internet and smart phones and drive through McDonald's the impatience of society at large and Bills fans in particular think a kid with 8 games under his bely should already be a mature, finished product.