Bucky Brooks: The Blueprint Buffalo Should Replicate to Maximize Josh Allen's Abilities

[Mr. WEO]

2 hours ago, Phil The Thrill said:

Sounds like Bucky actually is more bullish on Allen compared to Bill Barnwell.  What’s the difference?  Buckster actually has played in the NFL and at a high level in college.  Plus he has scouting experience in the NFL.

 

Barnwell has a degree in English and writes for ESPN.  So I guess that qualifies him to evaluate QB’s 

 

 

Good point, with no NFl experience or even top college playing experience, he could only be an NFL GM....but not a columnist commenting on NFL QBs.

[greeneblitz]

Allen is a way better passer than the box score will tell you, its just a matter of time and talent around him before the stats catch up with the eyes.

[Allen2Moulds]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Here is where its deceiving.  There is a bigger story around Allen than the stats show.

1. Drops, way too many drops.
2. Pass Protection, he constantly under duress.  This leads to either poor throws at times where he trusts his arm to do too much or he has to throw it away.
3. Penalties, he has had several great throws, even exceptional ones taken away by penalties.
4. Down and Long all the time.  See penalties above as well as the inability to gain yards by our RB's has us frequently in 2nd/3rd and 10 or more yards needed.  
5. WR's do not get separation.  Kid already has to learn NFL defenses, and our WR's struggle to get open on their routes compounds this.  In fact, Zay is mostly a ghost UNLESS Allen is running for his life where can slip away finally from a defender trying to hold coverage that long.  Zay isnt getting open often enough on his actual route.
6. No running game.  This kid in the 3 games since coming back has personally accounted for about 85% of all the offensive yards this team has produced.  You can see him getting winded end of games even, I mean he is already adjusting to a longer season.  But add in the extra exertion from the runs and all the big hits he takes too.  Having to do it all is just making things harder on him.

More importantly...Allen is NOT the same kid as he was before he got hurt.  There is a clear difference in his level of play since coming back where you can see a lot of growth.  He is literally a Clay dropped pass and a ST Blunder away from being 6-2 as a starter and 3-0 since coming back from injury.  Heck, he might have even won the Houston game had he not gotten hurt and allowed Pickerman to give the game away.  So when people point to his year long cummalitve stats to gauge how he is doing now, they are not correctly analyzing his growth and improvement.  

 

No one is claiming he is a finished product by any means, but when you watch the tape, especially the last 3 games, there are very few just missed or way off passes.  I mean he is literally just a few more passes per game being completed away from 60+% completion percentage.  Now factor in all those things, and you can see a ton of places those few more completions can come from that are factoring in from failures of the people around him.  

 

For example...how many more completions you think he will make when you he gets more chances of 3rd and 3 instead of the several times a game he is in 3rd and 10, 3rd and 12, 3rd and 15, 3rd and 20?  How many more will he have when he has less drops?  How many more will he have when he has better receivers who can get open early in routes?  How many more will he have when he has time in the pocket?

 

You see, if you add just 1 more completion per game more with improvement on each of those issues, he would be over a 60% passer already.  Now factor in him as individual continuing to also improve and its not hard to see how he can quickly get above 60%.  

wow AlphaDawg,  I wish every so called football analyst could read your post. That's exactly how I feel about Allen. I'm very excited for the future in Buffalo. 

[Dadonkadonk]

1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

1) Allen's average air yards per pass are by far the most in the NFL. The longer the pass, the lower the completion percentage.

 

2) Allen has more throwaways per game than pretty much any other QB...many plays are designed rollouts where if nobody is open and he cant run he is told to throw it away. 

 

3) Allen doesn't have a lot of easy checkdown completions to pad his completion percentage because many times Allen doesn't even have a checkdown by design. His checkdown is to run for big chunks of yards.

 

4)Bills WR's have the worst seperation metrics of any WRs in the NFL. This means there are smaller windows for Allen to throw the ball into. This also means more contested catches and drops.

 

5) Allen doesn't throw a lot of passes in a game so if he has a combined 8 throwaways and drops, that affects his completion percentage much more than a guy throwing it 45 times a game.

1. That is bad play design

2. Not really. The roll outs are not by design most of the time.  It is because the line sucks or he leaves the pocket too soon.

3. Completely agree. Again this is bad play design or bad QB play.  

4. WR's are terrible. Can't separate and have not made any contested catches.  People on this board hated Watkins but he was a special player before the foot injury.

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

Seems like a quick turnaround for Brooks considering last weekend he was snidely tweeting that Allen should be a TE.

 

Totally disagree about strictly designed runs the way Newton does in Carolina. I think that's one of the biggest reasons Newton's already had some serious injury issues.

 

RPOs are fine.

 

But generally, just let Allen drop back to pass and scramble when there's enough green in front of him or when he needs to so he can protect himself sliding or going out of bounds the way he has been the last few weeks.

[Phil The Thrill]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

Good point, with no NFl experience or even top college playing experience, he could only be an NFL GM....but not a columnist commenting on NFL QBs.

 

Look up the term “informed opinion.”  Enough said

Edited December 15, 2018 by Phil The Thrill

[LSHMEAB]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Here is where its deceiving.  There is a bigger story around Allen than the stats show.

1. Drops, way too many drops.
2. Pass Protection, he constantly under duress.  This leads to either poor throws at times where he trusts his arm to do too much or he has to throw it away.
3. Penalties, he has had several great throws, even exceptional ones taken away by penalties.
4. Down and Long all the time.  See penalties above as well as the inability to gain yards by our RB's has us frequently in 2nd/3rd and 10 or more yards needed.  
5. WR's do not get separation.  Kid already has to learn NFL defenses, and our WR's struggle to get open on their routes compounds this.  In fact, Zay is mostly a ghost UNLESS Allen is running for his life where can slip away finally from a defender trying to hold coverage that long.  Zay isnt getting open often enough on his actual route.
6. No running game.  This kid in the 3 games since coming back has personally accounted for about 85% of all the offensive yards this team has produced.  You can see him getting winded end of games even, I mean he is already adjusting to a longer season.  But add in the extra exertion from the runs and all the big hits he takes too.  Having to do it all is just making things harder on him.

More importantly...Allen is NOT the same kid as he was before he got hurt.  There is a clear difference in his level of play since coming back where you can see a lot of growth.  He is literally a Clay dropped pass and a ST Blunder away from being 6-2 as a starter and 3-0 since coming back from injury.  Heck, he might have even won the Houston game had he not gotten hurt and allowed Pickerman to give the game away.  So when people point to his year long cummalitve stats to gauge how he is doing now, they are not correctly analyzing his growth and improvement.  

 

No one is claiming he is a finished product by any means, but when you watch the tape, especially the last 3 games, there are very few just missed or way off passes.  I mean he is literally just a few more passes per game being completed away from 60+% completion percentage.  Now factor in all those things, and you can see a ton of places those few more completions can come from that are factoring in from failures of the people around him.  

 

For example...how many more completions you think he will make when you he gets more chances of 3rd and 3 instead of the several times a game he is in 3rd and 10, 3rd and 12, 3rd and 15, 3rd and 20?  How many more will he have when he has less drops?  How many more will he have when he has better receivers who can get open early in routes?  How many more will he have when he has time in the pocket?

 

You see, if you add just 1 more completion per game more with improvement on each of those issues, he would be over a 60% passer already.  Now factor in him as individual continuing to also improve and its not hard to see how he can quickly get above 60%.  

We'll never see completely eye to eye until Allen proves it but hot damn do you put in work!

[transplantbillsfan]

3 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

They didn't play against the Jets and his completion percentage was 50%. Even the skeptics are encouraged by his play, but there's no need to grasp at straws. He's got some work to do as a passer. With his mobility, he doesn't need to be a Drew Brees type, but he still needs to improve. It's really not that bad.

 

There were at least 5 blatantly unacceptable drops in the Jets game.

 

Suddenly, Allen's over 60%.

 

Our WRs drop balls CONSISTENTLY and MULTIPLE times a game that you see dropped by other QBs' WRs once every 2 or 3 games.

 

Other WRs drop balls in traffic.

 

Buffalo WRs drop balls with no one around at all. Clay's done it at least twice in the last 2 games and Jones did it last game.

 

They also just drop almost every single pass where they're actually contested.

 

 

Our WR corps blows and is a huge reason Allen's development has been hindered.

 

 

[TtownBillsFan]

1 minute ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

There were at least 5 blatantly unacceptable drops in the Jets game.

 

Suddenly, Allen's over 60%.

 

Our WRs drop balls CONSISTENTLY and MULTIPLE times a game that you see dropped by other QBs' WRs once every 2 or 3 games.

 

Other WRs drop balls in traffic.

 

Buffalo WRs drop balls with no one around at all. Clay's done it at least twice in the last 2 games and Jones did it last game.

 

They also just drop almost every single pass where they're actually contested.

 

 

Our WR corps blows and is a huge reason Allen's development has been hindered.

 

 

Yep, and just imagine what he can be with a true #1, a trusted slot or TE that can be counted on to catch one over the middle (including even 50% of the 'contested' catches), and a run game where he's not the highest rusher.

Maybe I'm just a rose-colored glasses-wearing, cool-aid-drinking homer, but sheesh, that's what being a fan is about.  I've been this way since the day Thurmal joined the Buffalo Bills.  And I'm seeing a QB that has the same swagger, the same moxie, as Mr. JK.  Not saying he'll get there, but dangit, for the first time in decades, I have that hope!  I haven't been this confident in our QB since Drew Bledsoe.  Let's get a team around this mountain of a kid, and see what he can do!

[LABILLBACKER]

4 hours ago, I am the egg man said:

Charles Clay is an established complementary play maker....since when ?

There are zero consistent receivers on this team. There might be promise in Jones or Foster someday but if you include TE, the Bills receiving corp is the worst in the NFL. if you factor in all the drops this year,  Josh is probably close to 60%. 

[LSHMEAB]

5 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

There were at least 5 blatantly unacceptable drops in the Jets game.

 

Suddenly, Allen's over 60%.

 

Our WRs drop balls CONSISTENTLY and MULTIPLE times a game that you see dropped by other QBs' WRs once every 2 or 3 games.

 

Other WRs drop balls in traffic.

 

Buffalo WRs drop balls with no one around at all. Clay's done it at least twice in the last 2 games and Jones did it last game.

 

They also just drop almost every single pass where they're actually contested.

 

 

Our WR corps blows and is a huge reason Allen's development has been hindered.

 

 

You guys seem really obsessed with excusing that completion percentage. I recall 2 AWFUL drops in the Jets game. Clay and Jones dropped 2 perfect passes. 

 

The truth is that Allen will probably never be a high percentage guy and that's perfectly fine. Cam Newton has had MVP seasons with mediocre completion percentages because he's got a similar skill set to JA.

 

If he can get a little better with the bunnies, I expect somewhere in the upper 50's next season and with his arm strength and mobility, that would be perfectly fine.

[TtownBillsFan]

4 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

There are zero consistent receivers on this team. There might be promise in Jones or Foster someday but if you include TE, the Bills receiving corp is the worst in the NFL. if you factor in all the drops this year,  Josh is probably close to 60%. 

Truth.  And I'm super-disappointed in Charles Clay!  He's a University of Tulsa guy (my Alma Mater), and he WAS Tulsa's offense while he was there.  He was SOOOO good.  I think he got used up at TU though, as he hasn't had the same impact in the NFL, even with Miami.  Nagging injuries have limited his immense ability, and it's a friggin shame.

 

[transplantbillsfan]

4 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

You guys seem really obsessed with excusing that completion percentage. I recall 2 AWFUL drops in the Jets game. Clay and Jones dropped 2 perfect passes. 

 

The truth is that Allen will probably never be a high percentage guy and that's perfectly fine. Cam Newton has had MVP seasons with mediocre completion percentages because he's got a similar skill set to JA.

 

If he can get a little better with the bunnies, I expect somewhere in the upper 50's next season and with his arm strength and mobility, that would be perfectly fine.

 

Even the NFL broadcast made a point of putting up the stat "3 dropped passes" towards the end of the 1st half of that game, and the Zay drop was in the 2nd half.

 

We can largely EXPLAIN that completion % because of drops and crappy WRs who don't out in ANY effort or finish routes who are no longer on the team.

 

The reason we do that is because there are dummies out there who simply point to his completion % to prove he's inaccurate.

[TroutDog]

59 minutes ago, Dadonkadonk said:

1. That is bad play design

2. Not really. The roll outs are not by design most of the time.  It is because the line sucks or he leaves the pocket too soon.

3. Completely agree. Again this is bad play design or bad QB play.  

4. WR's are terrible. Can't separate and have not made any contested catches.  People on this board hated Watkins but he was a special player before the foot injury.

 

 

Bad play design? Do you know the play designs? Are you privy to the Bills offensive playbook?

 

Perhaps it’s a desire of Josh’s to actually get a first down...or ‘chunk’ yardage, instead of what you’re positing. Just a thought. Pretending to know what’s happening in an NFL game/franchise seems pretty silly to me. 

 

Questioning calls, TO’s, etc is totally legitimate but this strains credulity. 

[TtownBillsFan]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

He still has his inaccuracy issues.

 

But they aren't nearly as bad as many make it out to be. 

Allen has had one or two 'ugh' passes a game, no doubt.  They seem to be on the really short (behind the line even) passes, where he's having to take alot of the 'rifle' off of the pass.  No doubt, he needs to work on his touch.  But good grief, he's a rookie, who's touch was always in need of improving.  I just don't get why some people can't seen the good, and improvement that has been made.  Are some of ya'll up in Buffalo just that miserable?  Good things are coming in the way of the football team!

[Buffalo716]

4 minutes ago, TtownBillsFan said:

Allen has had one or two 'ugh' passes a game, no doubt.  They seem to be on the really short (behind the line even) passes, where he's having to take alot of the 'rifle' off of the pass.  No doubt, he needs to work on his touch.  But good grief, he's a rookie, who's touch was always in need of improving.  I just don't get why some people can't seen the good, and improvement that has been made.  Are some of ya'll up in Buffalo just that miserable?  Good things are coming in the way of the football team!

Every single QB in the league has a few wtf throws a game... While Brees and Brady have become so precise people don’t like to think they miss bad but but they do

 

Big Ben , Stafford , Rivers, Etc all throw some “ interesting “ footballs sometimes ... and by interesting I mean bad

[LSHMEAB]

Just now, ScottLaw said:

A lot of people do see the improvement and potential with Josh. He's going to be a good QB in this league if the improvement continues. 

 

At the same time, he deserves his fair share of criticism too. 

 

When ScottLaw makes a statement like this, it's clear the guy has shown that those of us in the bust camp have seen some potential. 

 

Don't mistake criticism for hate. It's on Josh's play to do the talking. He'll either improve or he won't. The "skeptics" are willing to give him a shot because 99% of us would love him to succeed. There's probably like 2 or 3 posters who'd rather be right than see the Bills have success.

[TtownBillsFan]

OH, LOL, I know, I see them, and say WTF.  Many of Brady's are "that should have been grounding, but the league won't call it, so there, have that, ground!".

 

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, LSHMEAB said:

We'll never see completely eye to eye until Allen proves it but hot damn do you put in work!

 

Hahaha thanks (I think lol).  And fair enough, I get where you are coming from and it’s fair.  I mean I am very optimistic about him, but also still know he has plenty of work ahead.  But truth is, I wanted nothing to do with him when the off season began last year.  But he won me over after quickly showing big strides working briefly with Palmer and then just seeing him grow and make big strides here, especially the last 3 games vs early season.  

 

 

Edited December 15, 2018 by Alphadawg7

[TtownBillsFan]

1 minute ago, LSHMEAB said:

When ScottLaw makes a statement like this, it's clear the guy has shown that those of us in the bust camp have seen some potential. 

 

Don't mistake criticism for hate. It's on Josh's play to do the talking. He'll either improve or he won't. The "skeptics" are willing to give him a shot because 99% of us would love him to succeed. There's probably like 2 or 3 posters who'd rather be right than see the Bills have success.

Thank you for this.  There are several of ya'll that seem really debbie downers on stuff (yes, you and Scott are two of the many).  But you are correct in noticing improvement.  And I've seen enough from both of you to know that you're fans of the team, even if glass-half-full types.  The fact that ya'll will come around is good enough, and it will happen.  Just know that there's spots on the bandwagon for ya when you want to get a full-time seat!

 

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Hahaha thanks!  And fair enough, I get where you are coming from and it’s fair.  I mean I am very optimistic about him, but also still know he has plenty of work ahead.  But truth is, I wanted nothing to do with him when the off season began last year.  But he won me over after quickly showing big strides working briefly with Palmer and then just seeing him grow and make big strides here, especially the last 3 games vs early season.  

 

 

Truth time:  When they announced Josh- I expected Rosen, and it was who I was pulling for us to take (since my boy, OU fan here, Mayfield was already gone).  I think they chose the right Josh now, but at that minute, I wasn't sure they did.