Barnwell: Progress Report on 2018 1st Round QBs

[BananaB]

Allen has some flaws he needs to work on but he has carried this offense on his back the past 3 games. If our #1 D could stop a couple late drives we’d have 2 more Ws. Both sides of the ball are playing well though, I just think the D should come up with those stops late in games. They have been  the strength of this team the past two years

[berg1029]

Barnwell still whining about us trading away Tyrod 

.

edit:  i knew this one would be useful someday

Edited December 13, 2018 by berg1029

[RyanC883]

4 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

OMG!!! He didn’t say our qb with a 63 QB rating and a 5 td to 9 int ratio is awesome!!! What a loser!!!

 

if you are an outsider looking at the Bills, it looks like a bad move for the Bills.  They moved on from a limited but safe qb who helped them get to the playoffs for one who is a good runner and a struggling passer.  Obviously as Bills fans, we know there were issues with Tyrod.  But y’all are so sensitive.  Allen is exciting, seems to have a great attitude, and has every physical tool you want.  He also is having a worse rookie season than EJ.  Obviously, he is getting more time.  But if Allen was on another team, we probably won’t think he was that good either.  

 

Good points. 

 

But if TT was on our team this year, without McCoy to carry him, he'd be abysmal. 

[GoBills808]

23 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

The Bills moved on from what was viewed as a roughly average starting QB after making the playoffs, and they moved on from Tyrod to a guy that's playing basically a more aggressive style of what Tyrod did. The fact that Bills fans clamored for Buffalo to move on from Tyrod because they wanted more of a passer and they have subsequently ended up with a QB that is currently more dependent on his running ability than Tyrod ever was makes for an interesting comparison between the two. The Jets moved on from a bad journeyman QB. The Cardinals moved on from a guy that retired. The Browns moved on from a collection of horrific QBs. The Ravens are running a completely different style of offense with Lamar vs. Flacco so it's difficult to really make any comparison whatsoever. It's probably more accurate to compare Lamar to guys like Kaepernick and Tyrod, which is what he did.

Do you see the inconsistency in saying it's an 'interesting comparison' vis a vis Bills' fans wanting to move on from Taylor with respect to Allen without mentioning Taylor was a 6 year veteran and Allen's a rookie, when using their play to draw similarities?

[RyanC883]

7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

And there is reasons to not be convinced, your opinion is valid.  Don’t want you to think I’m trying to ram an opinion down your throat or anything.  He has plenty of work to do in order to become a true franchise cornerstone.  

 

My main point is the stat sheet doesn’t always tell the whole story.  And with Josh, that is certainly a significant part of his story as there is quite a bit of context that gets left out when only looking at stat sheets..  HS he wasn’t fully committed to football as he played multiple sports.  At Wyoming his cast around him was atrocious and it certainly factored in to his stat sheet comp %.  

 

Most importantly for me is the significant improvements he has made in relatively short windows with better coaching for the NFL.  In the offseason, he worked on his mechanics before the combine and it vastly improved and made him blow people’s minds.  Then he came into camp and showed he was much more capable of playing early than many originally believed.  Then he came back after injury looking again like a different QB making very noticeable strides while away.

 

This is why I think his history is irrelevant.  When has he ever had the opportunity to really be coached up?  In a year since his last Wyoming game he has gone from a guy who everyone said wouldnt be ready to play for a year or two, a guy who supposedly couldn’t hit the broad side of the barn...to a guy who should be 6-2 as a starter if not for Clay and ST costing us two wins.  

 

When I watch him play, I don’t see a guy that’s remotely close to as inaccurate as the detractors proclaim.  I see a guy carrying a terrible offense from a personnel standpoint who keeps seeing penalties and drops negate big plays, down and long situations constantly because of penalties or the inability to gain yards by our RBs.  Where his WRs can’t even get open consistently unless they are adjusting to Allen running for his life.  

 

Let’s face it, him getting to over 60% comp right now is a matter of a couple more throws a game being caught.  Factor in how many throw always under constant pressure and flat out drops he has per game...factor in how many completions are erased by penalties.  Factor in how many low percentage deep shots we are forced into on 3rd and very long.  Factor in how many times he is hit while throwing.  And it’s pretty easy to see there is a lot going on besides just his personal accuracy that keep him lower on the stat sheet. 

 

What I don’t see is a lot of passes that are just flat out awful and inaccurate.  Does he make some, sure, and he needs to keep working on the fundamentals to reduce them.  But it’s no more than I would expect from any rookie QB and even the best QBs in the NFL miss throws.  But because of the narrative without context with Allen, those get unnecessarily magnified for Allen. 

  

Its all good man, and I respect you as a poster too. 

 

 

 

two great points by both posters here. 

 

but whatever you think of Allen, the article sounds like it's over the top in its criticism.   Allen needs to fix the accuracy and touch on intermediate passes.  Bills need an actual OL and WR's (or TE's) who don't drop the ball so often. 

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, RyanC883 said:

 

two great points by both posters here. 

 

but whatever you think of Allen, the article sounds like it's over the top in its criticism.   Allen needs to fix the accuracy and touch on intermediate passes.  Bills need an actual OL and WR's (or TE's) who don't drop the ball so often. 

 

Thanks, and yeah, thats really where I was getting at...the article clearly is written from the standpoint to support a pre existing negative opinion and its clear the writer hasn't sat down and watched film to truly see Allen on tape and his growth over the arc of the whole season.  

 

All I know is I cant wait to see what this kid can do with more time to throw (where he doesn't feel like he has to rocket so many passes) and also work with receivers who can get open on their initial routes.  

[DCOrange]

10 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Do you see the inconsistency in saying it's an 'interesting comparison' vis a vis Bills' fans wanting to move on from Taylor with respect to Allen without mentioning Taylor was a 6 year veteran and Allen's a rookie, when using their play to draw similarities?

 

Yes and no.

 

I think pretty much everybody would agree that at this point in time, the teams that took QBs are happy with their guys because they're showing flashes of what got them drafted. That's really all we're looking for. Barnwell wasn't going for that; Barnwell was trying to determine if they're playing well relative to other starting QBs, which for the most part, they are not. And to also discuss how they're progressing (though I didn't really get much of that in the article).

 

I think it's fair and accurate to say that Allen has not been as good as Tyrod was. I also think it's fair and accurate to say that it doesn't matter right now because we really care how Allen is playing two years from now rather than right now.

Edited December 13, 2018 by DCOrange

[davspo]

I always get a kick out of the ESPN crowd.  Clearly, they have never even seen a BIlls game over the past 2 decades, they merely look at stats.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

Nobody knows if Allen is going to be a franchise QB.

 

On the one hand, anyone who says he's so bad that it's just not going to happen is either delusional or just not watching.   Allen has proven his ability to make big time NFL throws.  The question is: can he do it consistently?  And that depends on his biomechanics, ability to read defenses & find receivers, the talent around him, and all that.   NFL QBs sometimes get better and sometimes they don't.  There's no foolproof way of prognosticating this.  

 

On the other hand, those who think it's certain that Allen will be franchise QB are also delusional.  There's just no guarantee.  

 

In the end, one camp will be proven right and we'll hear the gloating told-you-so's.   But any certainty at either end of the spectrum at this point is misguided.  

 

As I fan I see positive signs.  I see why Beane drafted the kid and hope for the best.  I don't care at all what Barnwell thinks or writes.  

 

 

 

This is the most sensible take I've read on this. 

 

Allen has a long way to go, no question.  More consistent mechanics, field vision, judgement - plenty of room to improve.

On the other hand, he's already shown the ability to make some big-time NFL throws.  And his WR/TE are sometimes not doing him any favors.

 

There is no certainty yet in either direction.  The Magic 8 Ball says "perhaps"

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, DCOrange said:

 

Yes and no.

 

I think pretty much everybody would agree that at this point in time, the teams that took QBs are happy with their guys because they're showing flashes of what got them drafted. That's really all we're looking for. Barnwell wasn't going for that; Barnwell was trying to determine if they're playing well relative to other starting QBs, which for the most part, they are not. And to also discuss how they're progressing (though I didn't really get much of that in the article).

 

I think it's fair and accurate to say that Allen has not been as good as Tyrod was. I also think it's fair and accurate to say that it doesn't matter right now because we really care how Allen is playing two years from now rather than right now.

And I think it's Barnwell defending his narrative to say that Allen has not been as good as Taylor was, without mentioning that Rosen hasn't been as good as Palmer was or Darnold hasn't been as good as McCown was.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

And I think it's Barnwell defending his narrative to say that Allen has not been as good as Taylor was, without mentioning that Rosen hasn't been as good as Palmer was or Darnold hasn't been as good as McCown was.

 

Must protect Tuhrod at all costs. Must.

 

[HappyDays]

40 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

The Bills moved on from what was viewed as a roughly average starting QB after making the playoffs, and they moved on from Tyrod to a guy that's playing basically a more aggressive style of what Tyrod did. The fact that Bills fans clamored for Buffalo to move on from Tyrod because they wanted more of a passer and they have subsequently ended up with a QB that is currently more dependent on his running ability than Tyrod ever was makes for an interesting comparison between the two.

 

Except Tyrod was not an average starting QB. He had a few chances to prove he was a starter. Unfortunately he instead got worse every single year, somehow culminating in his worst season ever this year. Now for the rest of his career he will be a backup. I don't know what you mean by Allen plays a more aggressive style of Tyrod football. He is a completely different type of passer. Bills fans didn't grow to dislike Tyrod because he used his legs, it's because he never developed on his weaknesses as a passer and never learned to throw people open. Allen is already further along in that regard. I defended Tyrod a long time but it's over, he never improved and he is what he is at this point.

[DCOrange]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

Except Tyrod was not an average starting QB. He had a few chances to prove he was a starter. Unfortunately he instead got worse every single year, somehow culminating in his worst season ever this year. Now for the rest of his career he will be a backup. I don't know what you mean by Allen plays a more aggressive style of Tyrod football. He is a completely different type of passer. Bills fans didn't grow to dislike Tyrod because he used his legs, it's because he never developed on his weaknesses as a passer and never learned to throw people open. Allen is already further along in that regard. I defended Tyrod a long time but it's over, he never improved and he is what he is at this point.

 

You're trying way too hard here. Obviously Allen is not an exact clone of Tyrod. Tyrod was a running QB who took deep shots but didn't force passes. Allen is currently a running QB who takes deep shots and does force passes. That is the comparison.

 

And the comparison is being made because Tyrod was, based on PFF, QBR, etc., performing as roughly an average starting QB and Buffalo decided to move on to find a guy that was presumably more of a pure passer, which has made the comparison even more fun to look at because Allen has been the opposite so far.

 

The other rookies were all replacing career backups (McCown & whatever the Browns had last year), guys that retired (Palmer), or were forced to play due to injury (Flacco/Lamar) so the comparisons for them aren't remotely as interesting.

[IronyAbounds]

His overall grade on all the QBs was an incomplete, while suggesting Mayfield has shown the most promise of all of them, which in my view is likely an accurate one. Allen's scrambles have been impressive, but as Barnwell notes that is not a path to long term success in the NFL for a QB. The other point that he makes with respect to Mayfield is that he seems to have been helped immensely by the change in play calling, while noting that Daboll needs to help Allen more in that regard. I'm not sure any one of the 5 will end up as a real franchise QB, but it's going to take time before anyone who isn't a fanboy or a detractor of any of them can really make that judgement.

[Alphadawg7]

5 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

Nobody knows if Allen is going to be a franchise QB.

 

On the one hand, anyone who says he's so bad that it's just not going to happen is either delusional or just not watching.   Allen has proven his ability to make big time NFL throws.  The question is: can he do it consistently?  And that depends on his biomechanics, ability to read defenses & find receivers, the talent around him, and all that.   NFL QBs sometimes get better and sometimes they don't.  There's no foolproof way of prognosticating this.  

 

On the other hand, those who think it's certain that Allen will be franchise QB are also delusional.  There's just no guarantee.  

 

In the end, one camp will be proven right and we'll hear the gloating told-you-so's.   But any certainty at either end of the spectrum at this point is misguided.  

 

As I fan I see positive signs.  I see why Beane drafted the kid and hope for the best.  I don't care at all what Barnwell thinks or writes.  

 

 

 

Great post

[CardinalScotts]

One of many who have figured out Bills fans will click and react. He's a tool like Rodak (and there buddies) just skip over it you have to respect the person before  you care what his opinion is- the first part of that stops me with his garbage.

 

Its like why does Allen run so much? Really do you watch the games- which of  these talented wide outs we signed this week or didnt release is running open? How about the tight end option- quarterbacks best friend the good tight end. Oh ya we can't run the football because our offensive line sucks both in passing and running. Now we are playing are terrible starters back ups who couldnt beat out this group to start with I'm sure they will play great.

 

I didnt click on the article but I'm sure this is close to what he is saying

Edited December 13, 2018 by CardinalScotts

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

You're trying way too hard here. Obviously Allen is not an exact clone of Tyrod. Tyrod was a running QB who took deep shots but didn't force passes. Allen is currently a running QB who takes deep shots and does force passes. That is the comparison.

 

And the comparison is being made because Tyrod was, based on PFF, QBR, etc., performing as roughly an average starting QB and Buffalo decided to move on to find a guy that was presumably more of a pure passer, which has made the comparison even more fun to look at because Allen has been the opposite so far.

 

The other rookies were all replacing career backups (McCown & whatever the Browns had last year), guys that retired (Palmer), or were forced to play due to injury (Flacco/Lamar) so the comparisons for them aren't remotely as interesting.

If the first bolded is your logic, I think you might be the one trying too hard. That is the laziest comparison I've read yet on Allen.

 

And the comparison for the others in your third pp...Taylor actually IS a career backup. Allen/Taylor is EXACTLY comparable to Darnold/McCown. Not to mention Barnwell mysteriously failed to mention Jackson underperforming as compared to Flacco. This is a totally misguided take.

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said:

First thanks for linking to this article.  I don't seek out national sports writers to read because I find them to generally be pretty piss poor at their job.  So if I don't see it here on Two Bills Drive then I don't see it.  And like others have said it is good to get outside our comfort zones and check out what others are saying about our team and our new QB.

 

But when I read one of these articles I look to see if there are statements delivered as "fact" that I know from my own observations are not.  And this article is full of them.  A few of my issues with Barwell's summary of the rookie QB's:

 

*  I don't like that he supposedly looked at only the last 2 games closely and presumably didn't look at all their games closely.  So what the hell is that supposed to tell us?  The MOST IMPORTANT aspect of a rookie QB IMO is whether they are getting better and making progress.  By definition his "analysis" can't answer that critical question. 

 

*  His take on the throw to Clay at the end of the game against the Dolphins was flat out wrong.  That Clay stood there flat footed in the end zone moving to the ball to late; then stumbling so what little movement he made was to little; and then not caching a ball that hit him square in the hands is the correct description of that play.  And I'm not seeing it through rose tinted pro Allen glasses to say that. 

 

*  After finishing his biased take on Allen I dove into his take on Darnold and right away was disappointed.  If this guy ONLY looked at the last 2 games then how can he make a big deal about the lack of pass protection for Darnold and not Allen.  I mean he just watched a game where Allen was HIT TEN TIMES by the Jets and Darnold was not touched ONCE by a Bill. 

 

I could go on but it's a waste of electronic letters to further react to this guy. 

 

BTW, I have no problem with objective criticism of Allen.  I agree with those who say he has a LOT OF WORK to do and that there are elements of his game that need to improve.  But that being said it's not "homerism" to believe we may have found the franchise QB that has eluded us for 20 years.  Allen remains a work in progress and he may fall short of expectations but right now he's improving by the game and has already showed us stuff that qualifies as a big fat wow!

If I could thank this more then once I would

[Phil The Thrill]

 

 

 

Even so, I think he has a garbage take.  He’s manipulating stats without context to essentially confirm his opinion.  Anyone who watched the past 3 games Allen started can see that his performance was much stronger than his numbers indicated.  

 

Dont take my word though, take the word of former players, coaches and even arm chair Twitter film analysts.  

 

Or or you could take the word of a balding, hipster wannabe from Brooklyn who tries to cool by wearing a hoodie in promo picture.  He sure has a lot of NFL experience.

Edited December 14, 2018 by Phil The Thrill

[nedboy7]

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Not sure how people don't blame Josh for that underthrow to Jones against Miami.

 

 

 

It was a perfect pass!!! 

Get on board hater!!!