Barnwell: Progress Report on 2018 1st Round QBs

[dave mcbride]

5 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

1) I was very to move on from Tyrod.  I think the national people saw a qb who helped us get to the playoffs and played effective football.  Obviously, we knew how limited Tyrod was and it was time to move on.  But as of this point, Allen was not an upgrade to Tyrod but obviously he has time to develop.  But to outside people, it looks like a dumb move.

 

2). How much better was the cast last year?  Obviously the line was better but this year has Zay in his second year.  I think both offensive groups are bad but I don’t see it being a huge upgrade one way or the other.

 

3) agree on EJ not taking the next step though in his 7th game, he had a 3 td game.  On of the biggest problems with EJ was he seemed like a robot.  I like the fire that Allen plays with.

 

4) Allen is getting a second year.  But the excuse making gets a little silly.  He’s a top 10 pick and highest drafted qb in our franchise history.  He has struggled with accuracy his whole career.  Why can’t people just admit it’s an issue for him and not blame it on everyone else?  

 

5). How do Bills fans feel about Rosen?  Because he is ahead of Allen on most passing stats but I’m sure we don’t think he is having a good rookie year.  So that’s how a lot of people probably think when they look at Allen.

 

i freely admit I wasn’t a fan of the pick.  I hate the upside, not super productive (especially in a low conference) guy.  They terrify me.  But I love the Bills and want him to be great.  But I’m not just going to pretend.  He is pretty much who I thought he would be (he is way faster though than I though).  He’s had good moments and bad ones.  Hopefully, this team gets better at finding offensive talent.  But I certainly can understand why people outside of Bills fans don’t think he i special right now.  I hope he makes them all eat their words but it hasn’t happen yet.

Shady being ineffective (due in large part to the line's decline) is a HUGE downgrade from last year. We went from having an RB who was recognized league-wide as a genuine threat to having nothing at the RB position. Shady had 59 catches last year too. He's a good receiver. 

[JerseyBills]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

OMG!!! He didn’t say our qb with a 63 QB rating and a 5 td to 9 int ratio is awesome!!! What a loser!!!

 

if you are an outsider looking at the Bills, it looks like a bad move for the Bills.  They moved on from a limited but safe qb who helped them get to the playoffs for one who is a good runner and a struggling passer.  Obviously as Bills fans, we know there were issues with Tyrod.  But y’all are so sensitive.  Allen is exciting, seems to have a great attitude, and has every physical tool you want.  He also is having a worse rookie season than EJ.  Obviously, he is getting more time.  But if Allen was on another team, we probably won’t think he was that good either. 

But we are talking about so called professional journalists who are supposed to report with intelligence and integrity and  fail to bring up plain as day issues, that any average football fan can see with the OL and the fact he is throwing to only 1 WR that was on the opening day roster , with no run game, it is your job to add insight into why his numbers are the way they are. Just last game he was running for his life on what felt like every play, had his WR drop 5-6 passes right in the breadbasket and still was inches away from two game winning drives, yet none of these writers will mention any of these FACTS... If you can't see the biased reporting towards Allen , open up your eyes! And i don't mean to spread no negativity or attack you personally, i'm just ticked off , all i really want is  for Allen to get a fair shake, if they're going to write about him and this and many other articles are clearly not fair.

Edited December 13, 2018 by JerseyBills

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

20 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Why can’t people just admit it’s an issue for him and not blame it on everyone else?  
 

 

Because it's NOT the issue you're making it out to be. Period.

 

[C.Biscuit97]

15 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Maybe but the only rookie who is a clear upgrade on their predecessor at this point is Baker Mayfield. Darnold "as of this point" is not an upgrade to McCown but that isn't a good comparison at all. You don't start a rookie QB because you expect him to immediately elevate your offense. I would have liked this article more if he actually focused on progress that Allen has made or hasn't made instead of making a lazy point about Tyrod Taylor.

Agreed.  But we also were a playoff team last year and those other teams were terrible.  With our defense and better qb play, maybe we could have sneak in this year.  

 

 

15 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Shady being ineffective (due in large part to the line's decline) is a HUGE downgrade from last year. We went from having an RB who was recognized league-wide as a genuine threat to having nothing at the RB position. Shady had 59 catches last year too. He's a good receiver. 

Yeah, the losses of crazy Richie and Wood hurt and McCoy is another year older.  Not having a receiver defenses respect deep also hurts. 

[Alphadawg7]

11 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

1) I was very to move on from Tyrod.  I think the national people saw a qb who helped us get to the playoffs and played effective football.  Obviously, we knew how limited Tyrod was and it was time to move on.  But as of this point, Allen was not an upgrade to Tyrod but obviously he has time to develop.  But to outside people, it looks like a dumb move.

 

2). How much better was the cast last year?  Obviously the line was better but this year has Zay in his second year.  I think both offensive groups are bad but I don’t see it being a huge upgrade one way or the other.

 

3) agree on EJ not taking the next step though in his 7th game, he had a 3 td game.  On of the biggest problems with EJ was he seemed like a robot.  I like the fire that Allen plays with.

 

4) Allen is getting a second year.  But the excuse making gets a little silly.  He’s a top 10 pick and highest drafted qb in our franchise history.  He has struggled with accuracy his whole career.  Why can’t people just admit it’s an issue for him and not blame it on everyone else?  

 

5). How do Bills fans feel about Rosen?  Because he is ahead of Allen on most passing stats but I’m sure we don’t think he is having a good rookie year.  So that’s how a lot of people probably think when they look at Allen.

 

i freely admit I wasn’t a fan of the pick.  I hate the upside, not super productive (especially in a low conference) guy.  They terrify me.  But I love the Bills and want him to be great.  But I’m not just going to pretend.  He is pretty much who I thought he would be (he is way faster though than I though).  He’s had good moments and bad ones.  Hopefully, this team gets better at finding offensive talent.  But I certainly can understand why people outside of Bills fans don’t think he i special right now.  I hope he makes them all eat their words but it hasn’t happen yet.

 

You know what gets even sillier?  The cherry picking those who are not optimistic do in order to over exaggerate the narratives. I am not saying you are doing it even, but there is a gross over exaggeration of his "inaccuracy" and its almost always stated by someone who had a negative opinion on Allen from the get go.  

 

Allen is not nearly as inaccurate as the detractors try and paint.  There are far more incompletions because of failures of the cast around him then they are from him making poor throws he should have hit.  Has he sailed or missed on some throws, of course.  But even the best QB's in the NFL do that, but for some reason if Allen misses one people hyper focus on it to prove he isnt accurate.  This doesn't mean he doesn't have things to work on to make him more accurate, of course he does.  But he also isnt nearly as inaccurate as the stat box states and his detractors push.  

1. The reality is he has a number of great passes, some sensational, overturned by penalties.
2. He has a lot of great passes flat out dropped.  
3. He has to throw a lot of passes away running for his life as this OL sucks, and he takes big hits while throwing too often too.
4. Penalties also force him into 2nd and very long and 3rd and very long way too often forcing to take lower percentage deep shots to keep drives alive, and we dont exactly have great WR's to help convert more down and long plays.
5. His WR's have struggled to get separation and get open on their initial routes.  Like Zay's alleged "breakout" game against Miami...that was such an over exaggeration as Zay struggled to get open and did most of his damage on plays where Allen was running for his life.  
   1. This was also substantially worse when KB was on the field who both was not explosive nor running clean routes and making the effort.
6. He has no run game around him (mostly due to poor OL play) to help take any pressure off or get into more manageable 2nd and short or 3rd and short situations.
7. The kid has literally accounted for about 85% of the total yards these last 3 weeks while also taking a pounding out there.  For a rookie adjusting to a longer season, this matters as fatigue comes into play and certainly could see how tired he was on that last drive against Miami.

Bottom line:  He has plenty to work on, as all young QB's due.  But he has been more accurate than the stat sheet throws and definitely more accurate than the detractors keep promoting.

[Teddy KGB]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

Nice: throwing out insulting nicknames because someone doesn't agree with you in an attempt at cut-down humor. Also find me posts where I indicate that I ever thought Taylor had a ceiling that was ever higher than "decent QB" who was the best option the Bills had at the time given the other options out there.

 

I’m sorry you used the statement circus catch 

 

I’m also sorry you feel the need to play the victim after saying circus catch.  

 

I’m also sorry you bent over backwards to make excuses for 50 yard passing days but down want to go all hardo on the rookie Allen for better performances. 

 

In conclusion, I have no idea what your watching or how you reach these conclusions and there’s no reason to carry on further 

 

 

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

You know what gets even sillier?  The cherry picking those who are not optimistic do in order to over exaggerate the narratives. I am not saying you are doing it even, but there is a gross over exaggeration of his "inaccuracy" and its almost always stated by someone who had a negative opinion on Allen from the get go.  

 

Allen is not nearly as inaccurate as the detractors try and paint.  There are far more incompletions because of failures of the cast around him then they are from him making poor throws he should have hit.  Has he sailed or missed on some throws, of course.  But even the best QB's in the NFL do that, but for some reason if Allen misses one people hyper focus on it to prove he isnt accurate.  This doesn't mean he doesn't have things to work on to make him more accurate, of course he does.  But he also isnt nearly as inaccurate as the stat box states and his detractors push.  

1. The reality is he has a number of great passes, some sensational, overturned by penalties.
2. He has a lot of great passes flat out dropped.  
3. He has to throw a lot of passes away running for his life as this OL sucks, and he takes big hits while throwing too often too.
4. Penalties also force him into 2nd and very long and 3rd and very long way too often forcing to take lower percentage deep shots to keep drives alive, and we dont exactly have great WR's to help convert more down and long plays.
5. His WR's have struggled to get separation and get open on their initial routes.  Like Zay's alleged "breakout" game against Miami...that was such an over exaggeration as Zay struggled to get open and did most of his damage on plays where Allen was running for his life.  
   1. This was also substantially worse when KB was on the field who both was not explosive nor running clean routes and making the effort.
6. He has no run game around him (mostly due to poor OL play) to help take any pressure off or get into more manageable 2nd and short or 3rd and short situations.
7. The kid has literally accounted for about 85% of the total yards these last 3 weeks while also taking a pounding out there.  For a rookie adjusting to a longer season, this matters as fatigue comes into play and certainly could see how tired he was on that last drive against Miami.

Bottom line:  He has plenty to work on, as all young QB's due.  But he has been more accurate than the stat sheet throws and definitely more accurate than the detractors keep promoting.

http://www.maxpreps.com/m/career/gendersport/stats.aspx?careerid=d629a44c-eff4-e211-99e4-002655e6c126&gendersport=boys,football

high school 54%

 

http://www.cccaasports.org/sports/fball/2014-15/players/joshuaallen0oal

juco - 49%

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/josh-allen-7.html

wyoming - 56%

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02.htm

Bills - 52.4%

 

if he improves as passer, he can be special.  But stop acting like it’s some conspiracy that he struggles with his accuracy.

 

 

 

[GoBills808]

34 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Then why didn't he compare the other rookie QBs to their predecessors? I guess you could call Sam Darnold a less impressive version of Josh McCown but that would be a pretty ridiculous take. I think Barnwell is still trying to force his point about Tyrod Taylor being better than Bills fans thought. Again I don't care if he doesn't see Allen making progress, even though I strongly disagree, but his take on it was lazy.

Darnold- less impressive version of Josh McCown

 

Rosen- less impressive version of Carson Palmer

 

And Mayfield is only a more impressive version of his predecessor by default...defending this take is pretty silly imo.

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

6 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

http://www.maxpreps.com/m/career/gendersport/stats.aspx?careerid=d629a44c-eff4-e211-99e4-002655e6c126&gendersport=boys,football

high school 54%

 

http://www.cccaasports.org/sports/fball/2014-15/players/joshuaallen0oal

juco - 49%

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/josh-allen-7.html

wyoming - 56%

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02.htm

Bills - 52.4%

 

if he improves as passer, he can be special.  But stop acting like it’s some conspiracy that he struggles with his accuracy.

 

 

 

 

Guess what...everything you just posted is completely irrelevant.  So there is that too.  Does not matter what he did in previous stops, has literally nothing to do with how is playing TODAY.  Any fool can see a night and day difference in Allen from before his injury and after his injury.  And lets not pretend for a second his coaching in HS and College is even close to what he is getting in the NFL.

 

And, if you also knew the back story, you would know that Allen was a multi sport athlete and didn't commit fully to football in HS and it was one of the reasons he wasnt recruited as hard.  

 

No offense, but I really hate this narrative of look at his past as it contains NO CONTEXT, and is literally not relevant unless he was still be coached by the same people on the same teams with the same personnel.  

 

MORE IMPORTANTLY:  None of what you posted addresses any of the factual things impacting his comp % I just listed that literally have nothing to do with his HS and College stats.  And it was shown a ton of times that his college stats were grossly exaggerated too when you factor in the drops by his WR's and that he was more accurate than the stat sheet. 

 

This is why its foolish to be a stat sheet analyst instead of breaking down film.

Edited December 13, 2018 by Alphadawg7

[C.Biscuit97]

15 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Guess what...everything you just posted is completely irrelevant.  So there is that too.  Does not matter what he did in previous stops, has literally nothing to do with how is playing TODAY.  Any fool can see a night and day difference in Allen from before his injury and after his injury.  And lets not pretend for a second his coaching in HS and College is even close to what he is getting in the NFL.

 

And, if you also knew the back story, you would know that Allen was a multi sport athlete and didn't commit fully to football in HS and it was one of the reasons he wasnt recruited as hard.  

 

No offense, but I really hate this narrative of look at his past as it contains NO CONTEXT, and is literally not relevant unless he was still be coached by the same people on the same teams with the same personnel.  

 

MORE IMPORTANTLY:  None of what you posted addresses any of the factual things impacting his comp % I just listed that literally have nothing to do with his HS and College stats.  And it was shown a ton of times that his college stats were grossly exaggerated too when you factor in the drops by his WR's and that he was more accurate than the stat sheet. 

 

This is why its foolish to be a stat sheet analyst instead of breaking down film.

Look, brother. I respect your opinion a lot.  I want you and everyone to be right.  This has become a political debate or telling someone their baby is ugly.  I want to be wrong and Allen to be a 60% passer.  Personally, when I see a long track record of something, it worries me. I’m sure people could breakdown why Jake Locker wasnt really inaccurate too.  But at some point, you just need to see it on the field.  

 

No one questions Allen’s physical ability and want to.  But at some point, stop making excuses, and just become a more accurate qb. He has time and I hope he is just blaming other people for why his % has been lower.

Edited December 13, 2018 by C.Biscuit97

[blacklabel]

4 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

The previous week? He magically avoids an instant pass rush from his atrocious OL on the final play, on the road and his veteran , highly paid TE dropped what would have been another GW pass from this "bust".

 

Oh, didn't you hear? That pass was "objectively" bad according to a poster or two on this board. I think, all things considered, it wasn't a great throw but it was catchable. And he was also avoiding pressure, running to his left, throws to his right without stepping into it, all arm, launches it 45-50 yards down the field. Wasn't perfect but it should've been caught. For Fartwell to criticize that throw is absurd. Most QBs in this league don't even attempt that kind of throw. 

 

These "journalists" have their pre-conceived notions about these players, man. And once those notions enter their brains, they're set in stone. Allen could go 35 of 40 for 611 yards and 8 TDs with 129 rushing yards and there would still be a couple of turds in the punch bowl that would nitpick his game to death. It's so friggin' old. 

[Bing Bong]

3 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

OMG!!! He didn’t say our qb with a 63 QB rating and a 5 td to 9 int ratio is awesome!!! What a loser!!!

 

if you are an outsider looking at the Bills, it looks like a bad move for the Bills.  They moved on from a limited but safe qb who helped them get to the playoffs for one who is a good runner and a struggling passer.  Obviously as Bills fans, we know there were issues with Tyrod.  But y’all are so sensitive.  Allen is exciting, seems to have a great attitude, and has every physical tool you want.  He also is having a worse rookie season than EJ.  Obviously, he is getting more time.  But if Allen was on another team, we probably won’t think he was that good either. 

We are far more knowledgeable on the Bills than a national media sports writer. Duh... Why we don't understand that and take issues nitpicking wrong points instead of trying to seek out subjective opinions outside of our bias, I'll never know. These guys don't have an agenda against the Bills they hardly give a flying ****. 

 

It's nice to get our heads out of the sand for some fresh perspective outside of this perpetually self reinforcing mob mentality culture. He doesn't know JA nearly as well as we do. We don't know other quarterbacks all around the league over several years nearly as much as he does. Read an article/news source/anything with some sort of reasonable expectation on the writer's bias, knowledge, and potential gaps in knowledge we are far more privy to, and take it with a grain of salt and see if there's any takeaway points. Or never read anything you disagree with. National media hardly ever bothers with the Bills. For me it's great when they do to get some fresh opinions, regardless of if I agree or disagree.. I know how the general football world sees us.

 

All that said, I think ESPN does suck in general with their writers. It's not their revenue model, they cut corners, and it shows. I'll read anything national media on the Bills but ESPN is probably at the bottom of my list of national media.

Edited December 13, 2018 by PetermanThrew5Picks

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, PetermanThrew5Picks said:

We are far more knowledgeable on the Bills than a national media sports writer. Duh... Why we don't understand that and take issues nitpicking wrong points instead of trying to seek out subjective opinions outside of our bias, I'll never know. These guys don't have an agenda against the Bills they hardly give a flying ****. 

 

It's nice to get our heads out of the sand for some fresh perspective outside of this perpetually self reinforcing mob mentality culture. He doesn't know JA nearly as well as we do. We don't know other quarterbacks all around the league over several years nearly as much as he does. Read an article/news source/anything with some sort of reasonable expectation on the writer's bias, knowledge, and potential gaps in knowledge we are far more privy to, and take it with a grain of salt and see if there's any takeaway points. Or never read anything you disagree with. National media hardly ever bothers with the Bills. For me it's great when they do to get some fresh opinions, regardless of if I agree or disagree.. I know how the general football world sees us.

I don’t disagree with any of this.  But we are also completely biased.  I’ve said that part of the reason I’m dubious of Allen is because of EJ and JP.  I used to do everything possible to discount all criticism of them.  And overall, the critics proved to be right.  

 

The greatest part about this is Allen and the Bills can prove doubters wrong.  And I sincerely hope he does.  

[LB3]

The only thing I care about is his completion percentage as that stat relates directly to his accuracy. My hope is that for the rest of the season, he learns to check down for 6 yards on 3rd and long. He won't get the first down but his completion percentage will be acceptable, and that's all that matters.

Edited December 13, 2018 by LBSeeBallLBGetBall

[DuckyBoys]

To give an honest and complete evaluation you need to watch all his plays knowing the context they came in.  I  don't believe Barnwell nor any other talking head spends 48 hrs of his life each week watching every game in full.  Even if you watch a condensed version with just the throws you still would not be 100% on how the team was in that down and distance.  If you are a Bills fan and have watched every game in full you have a better feel of how he has played given what he has faced.   He has looked like a different player since  he came back from the elbow.  Bills should have won both of the last two games.  Allen did his part, special teams and too many miscues by the supporting cast with penalties. 

 

Comparing him to Tyrod is ridiculous  He has already probably converted more third and longs with passes into tight coverage than Tyrod did in his entire tenure as starter.  I think people have a very short memory on how specific  game script had to be  for Bills victories was with Taylor .  Does he need to take another light year leap?  Absolutely but I believe he has the mental fortitude/smarts and will to do it. 

[Bing Bong]

10 minutes ago, blacklabel said:

 

These "journalists" have their pre-conceived notions about these players, man. And once those notions enter their brains, they're set in stone. Allen could go 35 of 40 for 611 yards and 8 TDs with 129 rushing yards and there would still be a couple of turds in the punch bowl that would nitpick his game to death. It's so friggin' old. 

ESPN is pretty crappy journalism. But I think most of the national media consensus (post Allen injury games) is they were wrong in their initial assessment (if they doubted) and he does have enormous potential if not admitting that JA has already materialized much potential into genuine talent already in his rookie season.

 

I thought the Ringer article, which is much a better journalism source, someone posted last week did a great job admitting their notions of JA were smashed by his recent performances and it was pretty high praise for JA. Naturally we smashed the article for not knowing JA was great the second he was drafted.. I mean even when they do show change in pre-conceived notions we dismiss it haha. I agree quality journalism shouldn't hold onto pre-conceived notions, and they often do hold onto them.. but that's not to say it isn't out there if you look past ESPN and other mega media conglomerates that don't really bother with writing as a revenue stream.. preferring videos (angry runs lol) instead.

[freddyjj]

Barnwell could have done this

Tyrod

Short

Fast

Cautious

African American

 

Josh

Tall

Fast

Reckless

Caucasian

 

And it would have read the same to me.  One guy, with little insight, voicing his opinion

 

Edited December 13, 2018 by freddyjj

[C.Biscuit97]

4 minutes ago, LBSeeBallLBGetBall said:

The only thing I care about is his completion percentage as that stat relates directly to his accuracy. My hope is that for the rest of the season, he learns to check down for 6 yards on 3rd and long. He won't get the first down but his completion percentage will be acceptable, and that's all that matters.

At 52% completion %, he is 31st at yards per attempt at 6.3.  Fitz with his rag doll arm is at 9.62.  There is nothing wrong with getting the ball out quickly to your playmakers.  It’s what every really good qb does and hope Allen learns to do.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

8 minutes ago, LBSeeBallLBGetBall said:

The only thing I care about is his completion percentage as that stat relates directly to his accuracy. My hope is that for the rest of the season, he learns to check down for 6 yards on 3rd and long. He won't get the first down but his completion percentage will be acceptable, and that's all that matters.

 

This guy gets it.

 

[Bing Bong]

5 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

But we are also completely biased.

haha ya think? That's what I was saying. Especially being on the forum exposes you to reinforcing bias, even subconsciously. You read 100 different posters regurgitating the same thoughts you'll think "huh they're probably right" and then you make 101 regurgitating that thought. And on and on the self reinforcement cycle goes. We go bananas over EJ and JP and Tyrod early, and follow the mob when it starts to turn.. but ONLY when 40-50% of posters hop on does the snowball start rolling to the opposite side where Tyrod doesn't even belong in the league to some.. silly thought. All leads to a total black and white perspective.