Barnwell: Progress Report on 2018 1st Round QBs

[ddaryl]

I found the analysis to be pretty spot on. Allen stil has a ways to go...

I love how offended people become if you dare not crown him franchise right now

[oldmanfan]

18 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Just to play devil's advocate (I've said too much already), working back to someone like Allen given his arm strength is not always the best choice. We're not talking about an arm like Matt Ryan's here. He overthrows people a LOT. I wouldn't blame Clay for that. He was wide open in the middle of the EZ and Allen missed him.

When the receiver gets both hands on the football, that is not a miss.   Or at least that what my coach in pee wees told me.  You get your hands on it, catch it.

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

 

Hes a cot guy just like circus catch.  

Nice: throwing out insulting nicknames because someone doesn't agree with you in an attempt at cut-down humor. Also find me posts where I indicate that I ever thought Taylor had a ceiling that was ever higher than "decent QB" who was the best option the Bills had at the time given the other options out there.

[nedboy7]

Guys just go on facebook. The algorithms won’t allow you to read things you don’t agree with. That way you can just stay put in your reality without being bothered by different opinions. Your reality won’t grow and you can pretend to be happy. 

[whatdrought]

Thank god for the unbiased media that can sort out my thoughts on the situation.

 

Im truly relived to learn that Josh Allen is dog ***** and Sam Darnold is playing all 11 positions on offense.

 

thank you ESPN! This is why you’re the greatest sports news outlet, and not a laughingstock!!

 

??

[HappyDays]

9 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

I think, and I could be wrong here, that he's probably comparing Allen to Tyrod because Allen is replacing Tyrod. The fact that he happens to be running more often than Tyrod ever did only makes the comparison more obvious. There aren't many QBs in the league that run a significant enough amount to really compare Allen to and it just so happens that one of them is the guy that he's replaced.

 

He calls Allen "a less impressive version of Taylor." What does that even mean? Allen is actually running the ball better than Tyrod ever did and he attempts passes Tyrod never tried. The only relation is they are both good at running the ball.

 

He starts the article off by saying he watched each QB's last 2 starts to judge their progress, then he makes a convoluted connection to Tyrod by saying Allen has averaged 181 yards in all 8 starts. Allen has averaged 219 passing yards in his last 2 starts, and 337 total yards. I don't think there was ever a point where Tyrod averaged that much production over any 2 game period. The comparison is lazy. He sounds like someone with a bone to pick.

Edited December 13, 2018 by HappyDays

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

I think, and I could be wrong here, that he's probably comparing Allen to Tyrod because Allen is replacing Tyrod. The fact that he happens to be running more often than Tyrod ever did only makes the comparison more obvious. There aren't many QBs in the league that run a significant enough amount to really compare Allen to and it just so happens that one of them is the guy that he's replaced.

It would be worth noting in his comparison, then, that Allen is working with 2/5 of the talent on the offensive line that Taylor was afforded. That would be even the most MARGINAL analysis in examining why Allen's running so often. But all he said was 'Allen's a worse Taylor' which kind of lays bare the basis of his argument, which goes back to what he was writing all 2017 and into the offseason: the Bills are dumb for letting Taylor go. Barnwell is transparent here.

[Bray Wyatt]

13 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I've had this argument before. Just because a pass hits a receiver in the hands doesn't mean it's very catchable. There was a knock-down drag-out argument years back when a Taylor pass sailed off the top of Watkins' fingertips when the Bills were down by one score against the Pats and on their last possession, and the tendency was to blame Watkins because "it hit him in the hands." It was essentially uncatchable, however, and an errant throw. 

 

 

This was not an attempt where the pass flew off the fingertips and the receiver had to jump. Clays arms and hands were under the ball with a chance to either catch with his hands or trap it into his chest. I am not making the argument that every pass that hits a receiver's hands should be caught. I am saying this pass should have been caught, hence the accurate enough.

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

I'm only on the second paragraph, where he states "so far the Bills have gotten a less impressive version of Tyrod" and already see where this article is headed. In his first 5 starts he was overall pretty rough but the last 3 he has exceeded Taylor heavily in the pass game as well as with his legs! Just last week, people forget, his last drive, where he made 3 big time clutch throws that Taylor would never even attempt, as well as his 3rd down beautiful back shoulder throw to Zay around the 5 yard line that was actually called a catch and is a perfect example of how little help Allen has received from his WR corp. The pass was eventually overruled as incomplete, barely , but it should have been the 4th super impressive throw on the drive and set them up lovely with 1st n goal inside the 10 !

The previous week? He magically avoids an instant pass rush from his atrocious OL on the final play, on the road and his veteran , highly paid TE dropped what would have been another GW pass from this "bust". LoL. Bills fans are highly objective over Allen and the majority of us see what i see and that is just tremendous upside and potential as soon as next year. We all see he has an absolutely atrocious OL that all these writers fail to bring up. I just don't understand how this dude can make these type of comments if he has watched the last 3 games, where he is only 1-2 , but if his ST and OL is just average, he is 3-0 and even with them being ATROCIOUS, he still should have had 2 game winning drives with passes that should have been caught. 

 

I'm as excited as ive ever been, especially for a 4-9 team, I cannot wait til next year where we get to see our FRANCHISE QB with upgraded playmakers and OL shred defenses and these so called experts will have no choice but to report on his amazing skills accurately, because right now he is not getting a fair shake by the national media, who seem like they have a clear agenda against him and are rooting for him to fail and fail themselves to add any insight to why his numbers are so low. Dude is a stud, period, and I'm not no Allen fanboy , i'm just a die hard  Bills fan that calls it how i see it.

 

Meanwhile , the very first paragraph on Darnold, who has 20 points lower QBR, is how he has the worse supporting cast and no OL , but that was never mentioned with Allen, even when talking about the REASON he is scrambling so much. These guys are either not watching the film, which i doubt, or have that much hatred towards Allen, its truly pathetic and just clear biased takes by so many national writers. Not sure I've ever seen this much hate towards a rookie QB.

 

Well said, saved me some typing.  

 

The article was just so poorly written and it’s 100% clear the writer did not watch all 3 games and went off stat sheets and a few plays that made it to Twitter.

Edited December 13, 2018 by Alphadawg7

[DCOrange]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

He calls Allen "a less impressive version of Taylor." What does that even mean? Allen is actually running the ball better than Tyrod ever did and he attempts passes Tyrod never tried. The only relation is they are both good at running the ball.

 

He starts the article off by saying he watched each QB's last 2 starts to judge their progress, then he makes a convoluted connection to Tyrod by saying Allen has averaged 181 yards in all 8 starts. Allen has averaged 219 passing yards in his last 2 starts, and 337 total yards. I don't think there was ever a point where Tyrod averaged that much production over any 2 game period. The comparison is lazy. He sounds like someone with a bone to pick.

 

It means that he's being counted on to make plays with his legs like Tyrod but he's not protecting the ball or throwing it as well as Tyrod did. It's not really that complicated. I don't think he means that they're identical players and that Allen won't develop at all, but it's pretty simple to look at the fact that Allen is literally replacing Tyrod, and like Tyrod, is currently a running QB and make that comparison. At the moment, Allen doesn't compare well to Tyrod statistically but obviously the hope is that that changes as he gains more experience. As Barnwell pointed out, Allen and Tyrod both threw pretty deep on average, with Allen averaging 10.5 air yards per throw versus Tyrod's 9.0, but Tyrod completed a far higher % and did so while protecting the ball far better than Allen has. The hope of course is that Allen will progress, which Tyrod never did, and Allen has certainly shown some improvement since returning from injury so hopefully that continues.

 

But just because comparing Allen to Tyrod is "lazy", doesn't mean it isn't an apt comparison to make right now, and I think pointing out that Allen hasn't been as good as Tyrod was is an accurate statement at the moment, even if it's not really important in the grand scheme of things since obviously we're concerned with what Allen becomes rather than what he is right now.

[freddyjj]

3 hours ago, DCOrange said:

The Josh Allen section is too long IMO to quote the whole thing, but it's the very first section of the article.

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25518645/rookie-nfl-quarterback-progress-reports-2018-draft-picks-shown-far

So I will post this for reference again.  Who does Josh most resemble in style of play and progress made in Year 1?  Granted a different era but Elway was on better team that went 4-1 with Steve DeBerg as starter and made playoffs.  Elway started 10 game and went 4-6.  47.5 % Completion ratio (more downfield throwing then, but so are most of Josh's too) Threw for 7 TDs vs 14 INTs.  Ran 28 times for 146 yds and 1 TD.  He was more of a scrambler (behind the line) than Josh.  Sack Rates, INT rates, fumble rates and TD Rates are similar.  Food for thought.

 

Elway Passing

No. ▼	Player	Age	Pos	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%
7	John Elway	23	QB	11	10	4-6-0	123	259	47.5	1663	7	2.7	14	5.4	49	6.4	4.5	13.5	151.2	54.9		28	218	5.03	3.33	9.8

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table

Elway Rushing

No.	Player	Age	Pos	G	GS	Att	Yds	TD	Lng	Y/A	Y/G	A/G	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	Lng	R/G	Y/G	Ctch%	Touch	Y/Tch	YScm	RRTD	Fmb
7	John Elway	23	QB	11	10	28	146	1	23	5.2	13.3	2.5									28	5.2	146	1	6

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table

 

Allen Passing YTD 

Year ▲	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%
2018	22	BUF	QB	17	9	8	3-5-0	119	227	52.4	1429	5	2.2	9	4.0	75	6.3	5.0	12.0	158.8	62.8	55.1	26	195	4.88	3.67	10.3

Allen Rushing YTD

Games		Rushing							Receiving									Total Yds
Year ▲	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Rush	Yds	TD	Lng	Y/A	Y/G	A/G	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	Lng	R/G	Y/G	Ctch%	Touch	Y/Tch	YScm	RRTD	Fmb
2018	22	BUF	QB	17	9	8	66	490	5	45	7.4	54.4	7.3	1	0	0		0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	66	7.4	490	5	7

 

 

Edited December 13, 2018 by freddyjj

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

17 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

He calls Allen "a less impressive version of Taylor." What does that even mean? Allen is actually running the ball better than Tyrod ever did and he attempts passes Tyrod never tried. The only relation is they are both good at running the ball.

 

He starts the article off by saying he watched each QB's last 2 starts to judge their progress, then he makes a convoluted connection to Tyrod by saying Allen has averaged 181 yards in all 8 starts. Allen has averaged 219 passing yards in his last 2 starts, and 337 total yards. I don't think there was ever a point where Tyrod averaged that much production over any 2 game period. The comparison is lazy. He sounds like someone with a bone to pick.

 

Barnwell is one of Schopp's idols. he can, therefore, be ignored.

 

5 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I think pointing out that Allen hasn't been as good as Tyrod was is an accurate statement at the moment

 

Bolded being the key part of that. Your thinking isn't correct, however.

 

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

OMG!!! He didn’t say our qb with a 63 QB rating and a 5 td to 9 int ratio is awesome!!! What a loser!!!

 

if you are an outsider looking at the Bills, it looks like a bad move for the Bills.  They moved on from a limited but safe qb who helped them get to the playoffs for one who is a good runner and a struggling passer.  Obviously as Bills fans, we know there were issues with Tyrod.  But y’all are so sensitive.  Allen is exciting, seems to have a great attitude, and has every physical tool you want.  He also is having a worse rookie season than EJ.  Obviously, he is getting more time.  But if Allen was on another team, we probably won’t think he was that good either. 

 

While I understand where you are coming from, you are also missing the point I think others are irritated about.  The writer doesn’t have to be all rose colored glasses on Allen, it’s fair to be objective and critical.  However, this writer clearly has not watched Allens full games and is basing the vast majority of his opinion on his predraft opinion and cherry picking a few plays and stats to validate it.

 

Its crystal clear he stat box checked and didn’t watch the last 3 games.  He only reviewed a few plays that made its way to Twitter.  Had he watched the last 3 games, he would know that Allen had a lot of great passes negated by both penalties and drops, plus he threw a lot of passes away because his WRs can’t get open and the OL can’t hold protection.  Yes he references the “drop rate”, but again that’s stat sheet checking which is NOT analysis as stats never show the whole story. And let’s not forget, Bills RBs have also done nothing to help the offense either.

 

More importantly, anyone looking at his CUMMALTIVE stats to form an opinnion on his growth is an idiot.  Anyone who watched Allen before he got hurt and after he got hurt can tell he is not the same player and has shown vast improvements in a number of areas and has really grown into a leader as well.

 

Three things are 100% true right now:  

1.  This is a poorly written article devoid of any real analysis of watching film on Allen and firmly rooted in identifying non researched statistics to affirm his predraft opinions.

 

2.  Allen is not a finished product yet, but has shown a lot of growth while also still having some things he needs to continue to improve to sustain success and be a true franchise QB.

 

3.  His supporting cast fails him a heck of a lot more times than he makes a terrible head scratching throw.

 

So while I do understand your point, people upset with this article IMHO have every right to be because it’s mostly cherry picked nonsense to support his predetermined negative outlook on Allen.  I mean the Clay drop thing was one of the stupidest recaps I have seen on that play.

Edited December 13, 2018 by Alphadawg7

[stosh64]

Barnwell tries to cover his bias with analytics and fails.

 

 

[Dr. Who]

25 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

He calls Allen "a less impressive version of Taylor." What does that even mean? Allen is actually running the ball better than Tyrod ever did and he attempts passes Tyrod never tried. The only relation is they are both good at running the ball.

 

He starts the article off by saying he watched each QB's last 2 starts to judge their progress, then he makes a convoluted connection to Tyrod by saying Allen has averaged 181 yards in all 8 starts. Allen has averaged 219 passing yards in his last 2 starts, and 337 total yards. I don't think there was ever a point where Tyrod averaged that much production over any 2 game period. The comparison is lazy. He sounds like someone with a bone to pick.

Be careful now, some clever fella is going to deconstruct your whole argument by calling you a fanboy.

13 minutes ago, freddyjj said:

So I will post this for reference again.  Who does Josh most resemble in style of play and progress made in Year 1?  Granted a different era but Elway was on better team that went 4-1 with Steve DeBerg as starter and made playoffs.  Elway started 10 game and went 4-6.  47.5 % Completion ratio (more downfield throwing then, but so are most of Josh's too) Threw for 7 TDs vs 14 INTs.  Ran 28 times for 146 yds and 1 TD.  He was more of a scrambler (behind the line) than Josh.  Sack Rates, INT rates and TD Rates are similar.  Food for thought.

 

Elway Passing

No. ▼	Player	Age	Pos	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%
7	John Elway	23	QB	11	10	4-6-0	123	259	47.5	1663	7	2.7	14	5.4	49	6.4	4.5	13.5	151.2	54.9		28	218	5.03	3.33	9.8

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table

Elway Rushing

No.	Player	Age	Pos	G	GS	Att	Yds	TD	Lng	Y/A	Y/G	A/G	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	Lng	R/G	Y/G	Ctch%	Touch	Y/Tch	YScm	RRTD	Fmb
7	John Elway	23	QB	11	10	28	146	1	23	5.2	13.3	2.5									28	5.2	146	1	6

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table

 

Allen Passing YTD 

Year ▲	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%
2018	22	BUF	QB	17	9	8	3-5-0	119	227	52.4	1429	5	2.2	9	4.0	75	6.3	5.0	12.0	158.8	62.8	55.1	26	195	4.88	3.67	10.3

Allen Rushing YTD

Games		Rushing							Receiving									Total Yds
Year ▲	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Rush	Yds	TD	Lng	Y/A	Y/G	A/G	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	Lng	R/G	Y/G	Ctch%	Touch	Y/Tch	YScm	RRTD	Fmb
2018	22	BUF	QB	17	9	8	66	490	5	45	7.4	54.4	7.3	1	0	0		0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	66	7.4	490	5	7

 

 

I think Elway is Allen's comparable if he hits his ceiling. 

[DuckyBoys]

total click bait  Waste of ten minutes reading his drivel

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, JoPar_v2 said:

Barnwell is not clickbait. He’s posted more meaningful NFL pieces in the last 3 years than Peter King has in the last 30. Keep homering it up tho makes you look smart.

I got no problem with different opinions.....but his analysis is flat WRONG on most of this regarding Allen.

 

If he wants to be treated as anything other then a hack.....he needs to put more work into it.

[HappyDays]

44 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

But just because comparing Allen to Tyrod is "lazy", doesn't mean it isn't an apt comparison to make right now, and I think pointing out that Allen hasn't been as good as Tyrod was is an accurate statement at the moment,

 

Then why didn't he compare the other rookie QBs to their predecessors? I guess you could call Sam Darnold a less impressive version of Josh McCown but that would be a pretty ridiculous take. I think Barnwell is still trying to force his point about Tyrod Taylor being better than Bills fans thought. Again I don't care if he doesn't see Allen making progress, even though I strongly disagree, but his take on it was lazy.

Edited December 13, 2018 by HappyDays

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

They moved on from Tyrod because he was a struggling passer and it continued every year even into Cleveland.  The excuse for Taylor is that he had a terrible supporting cast last year....this is even a worse cast with Allen.  

 

Sam Darnold is also having a worse year than EJ's rookie year.  Jared Goff also had a worse rookie season than EJ.  These are just based on box score scouting.

 

If you look at the improvement of Allen, he's ahead of EJ.  Compare Allen now to Allen week 2....there's growth.  EJ never grew and actually regressed as the season went on.

 

In this article, why is it okay to say that Darnold's struggles are attributed to his supporting cast but for Allen....it's because he's struggling?

 

C. Bisquit...do you believe that we are very talented on offense and Allen is the reason why it's not an overall very good unit?

1) I was very to move on from Tyrod.  I think the national people saw a qb who helped us get to the playoffs and played effective football.  Obviously, we knew how limited Tyrod was and it was time to move on.  But as of this point, Allen was not an upgrade to Tyrod but obviously he has time to develop.  But to outside people, it looks like a dumb move.

 

2). How much better was the cast last year?  Obviously the line was better but this year has Zay in his second year.  I think both offensive groups are bad but I don’t see it being a huge upgrade one way or the other.

 

3) agree on EJ not taking the next step though in his 7th game, he had a 3 td game.  On of the biggest problems with EJ was he seemed like a robot.  I like the fire that Allen plays with.

 

4) Allen is getting a second year.  But the excuse making gets a little silly.  He’s a top 10 pick and highest drafted qb in our franchise history.  He has struggled with accuracy his whole career.  Why can’t people just admit it’s an issue for him and not blame it on everyone else?  

 

5). How do Bills fans feel about Rosen?  Because he is ahead of Allen on most passing stats but I’m sure we don’t think he is having a good rookie year.  So that’s how a lot of people probably think when they look at Allen.

 

i freely admit I wasn’t a fan of the pick.  I hate the upside, not super productive (especially in a low conference) guy.  They terrify me.  But I love the Bills and want him to be great.  But I’m not just going to pretend.  He is pretty much who I thought he would be (he is way faster though than I though).  He’s had good moments and bad ones.  Hopefully, this team gets better at finding offensive talent.  But I certainly can understand why people outside of Bills fans don’t think he i special right now.  I hope he makes them all eat their words but it hasn’t happen yet.

[HappyDays]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

But as of this point, Allen was not an upgrade to Tyrod but obviously he has time to develop.

 

Maybe but the only rookie who is a clear upgrade on their predecessor at this point is Baker Mayfield. Darnold "as of this point" is not an upgrade to McCown but that isn't a good comparison at all. You don't start a rookie QB because you expect him to immediately elevate your offense. I would have liked this article more if he actually focused on progress that Allen has made or hasn't made instead of making a lazy point about Tyrod Taylor.