Will Shady be worth it?

[HeHateMe]

Buffalo loves 30+ year old running backs. 

 

Every other team finds and starts gems in the mid and late rounds of the draft, why don't we look there for the future?  Shady is not it, i'd argue Ivory has been more effective this year than him.

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

Here is the thing...Money doesn't matter in 2019.  We got a ton of cap room and its Shady's last year of his deal.  So the "worth it" conversation doesn't matter because his salary isnt going to make any difference next year, good or bad.  

 

The question is more about are we a better team next year with him or without him.  And right now, it feels like an impossible question to answer.  

1. Gurley looked terrible Goff's rookie year playing behind an awful OL, bad WR's, and a passing game that was not a big threat. So hard to know where McCoy is on the washed up meter given how bad the talent level is around him and Josh this year.  I mean he looks fast still, but the line gives him no openings, and with a spy hovering around to watch Allen a lot, thats like also having a spy on McCoy as it keeps another defender up front looking for runs.  So how much is it the OL (and spy on Allen) and how much is it Shady's decline?
2. He is dancing a lot more and looks less decisive.  Is that because he is declining, or is he trying to over compensate too much and looking too often to make a big play.
3. He will be a year older, and he is already on the wrong side of 30.  But there are lots of RB's who have been quality players still past 30.  And McCoy has avoided major injuries for the most part and avoids contact being so shifty, so plausible he can be in the crowd of being able to be a good RB past 30.  
4. He is literally one of Allens biggest fan, if not his biggest.  There is a bond there and that has value to a young players development.

For me, I think there is no reason to get rid of Shady until there is a reason.  His contract doesn't matter, we have plenty of room and won't matter if we keep him or cut him.  So take him into the offseason, maybe grab a young back in the middle rounds to groom and/or compliment Shady next year.  Then use camp and preseason to see what Shady brings, if he isnt getting the job done then look to trade or even cut him.  If he is contributing still, then let him play his last year of the deal out.  

Edited December 14, 2018 by Alphadawg7

[3rdand12]

On 12/13/2018 at 8:44 AM, Shotgunner said:

He's absolutely not worth it, but since we have so much cap we should keep him on the books next year. No way we can responsibly spend 100mil so lets save some for 2020 too.

I might think he would want to move on.
 

on the other hand, if Bills can make enough progress in FA + draft for O line ? He might consider it.
I love the guy.
But he is not being , or able to play to his potential mostly because he is playing for the Bills as they stand right now.
 best bet ? Restructure his deal and use him as a 3rd down back generally speaking. Draft some one to grind the stacked box defenses and be the future. A younger Ivory perhaps.

i could see this go either way. But that IS quite a large salary for someone Bills do not use to his potential.

 

seem they prefer to run downhill under Daboll generally. Now if we could get some O lineman who could do that  lol

8 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Here is the thing...Money doesn't matter in 2019.  We got a ton of cap room and its Shady's last year of his deal.  So the "worth it" conversation doesn't matter because his salary isnt going to make any difference next year, good or bad.  

 

The question is more about are we a better team next year with him or without him.  And right now, it feels like an impossible question to answer.  

1. Gurley looked terrible Goff's rookie year playing behind an awful OL, bad WR's, and a passing game that was not a big threat. So hard to know where McCoy is on the washed up meter given how bad the talent level is around him and Josh this year.  I mean he looks fast still, but the line gives him no openings, and with a spy hovering around to watch Allen a lot, thats like also having a spy on McCoy as it keeps another defender up front looking for runs.  So how much is it the OL (and spy on Allen) and how much is it Shady's decline?
2. He is dancing a lot more and looks less decisive.  Is that because he is declining, or is he trying to over compensate too much and looking too often to make a big play.
3. He will be a year older, and he is already on the wrong side of 30.  But there are lots of RB's who have been quality players still past 30.  And McCoy has avoided major injuries for the most part and avoids contact being so shifty, so plausible he can be in the crowd of being able to be a good RB past 30.  
4. He is literally one of Allens biggest fan, if not his biggest.  There is a bond there and that has value to a young players development.

For me, I think there is no reason to get rid of Shady until there is a reason.  His contract doesn't matter, we have plenty of room and won't matter if we keep him or cut him.  So take him into the offseason, maybe grab a young back in the middle rounds to groom and/or compliment Shady next year.  Then use camp and preseason to see what Shady brings, if he isnt getting the job done then look to trade or even cut him.  If he is contributing still, then let him play his last year of the deal out.  

another fine and reasonable post from you.

[ColoradoBills]

On ‎12‎/‎13‎/‎2018 at 1:56 PM, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I would see what Ford and Murphy can do for these last 3 games. RBs are the easiest things to find which is why you don’t ever have to pay them. See if either one of them are any good and go from there. I wouldn’t even let McCoy or Ivory play the last 3 games. See what the young guys have

 

Looking like Shady will be a no go for Sunday.

I see your point about Murphy and Ford but I don't see them sitting Ivory at all.

Ivory starts with a lot of Murphy mixed in so we should see how he can handle more snaps.

I don't see Ford doing anything yet, maybe a couple of snaps late unless there is an injury.

 

Murphy is averaging 5.2 yards per carry this year.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

2 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Looking like Shady will be a no go for Sunday.

I see your point about Murphy and Ford but I don't see them sitting Ivory at all.

Ivory starts with a lot of Murphy mixed in so we should see how he can handle more snaps.

I don't see Ford doing anything yet, maybe a couple of snaps late unless there is an injury.

 

Murphy is averaging 5.2 yards per carry this year.

If I’m the Bills it’s Murphy and Ford from here out. McCoy and Ivory serve no purpose for the remainder of this season. Let’s see the young guys.

[ColoradoBills]

10 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

If I’m the Bills it’s Murphy and Ford from here out. McCoy and Ivory serve no purpose for the remainder of this season. Let’s see the young guys.

 

Like I said, I see your point but in Dabolls mind I think it's still about Josh Allen development.

I see him using Ivory and Murphy pretty evenly Sunday, no need to shock the backfield too much for JA.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Like I said, I see your point but in Dabolls mind I think it's still about Josh Allen development.

I see him using Ivory and Murphy pretty evenly Sunday, no need to shock the backfield too much for JA.

 

 

....I think if you want to prolong Shady, try and mimic Thurmal-Davis-Gardner with Shady-Murphy (Ford)-Ivory.......

[CaptnCoke11]

Save the money.  Draft a guy and sign a decent free agent running back.  

[Dadonkadonk]

I find it laughable that people want to get rid of Shady when everyone agrees the OL is the biggest issue. Ivory is not the answer and was a waste of money. Im fine with drafting a RB on the third day but not before. Shady will be great next year with a new OL and Allen with a year of experience. 

[Bookie Man]

It's not show friends it's show business. 

 

-Bob Sugar

[T master]

Next year is the last year on Shady's contract isn't it ? It has been said that McD plans on him being brought back & used next year which he should be given that chance just because of his status as the player he has been in his career in the NFL BUT 11

 

If he has definitely regressed & shows his best years are well behind him & he has hit the proverbial wall then trade him or release him to give a young up & comer a bigger role don't waste the roster spot on a maybe !!

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

If there is 1 thing the Bills have always been able to find, it’s a good RB. I’m not worried. One way or another we will have a good to great RB soon enough. We always do

[LSHMEAB]

6 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

 

....I think if you want to prolong Shady, try and mimic Thurmal-Davis-Gardner with Shady-Murphy (Ford)-Ivory.......

You're forgetting about Timmy TIndale. Now that guy had grit!

 

Darick Holmes had a few good games as well.

Edited December 16, 2018 by LSHMEAB

[Norcalbillsfan]

I think the draft has proven you can easily get a game changer at RB outside of the first round. No more FAs, phase shady more to change of pace/receiver, and get a rookie rolling.

[Ol Dirty B]

On 12/13/2018 at 7:02 AM, eball said:

I've been a huge Shady proponent but I think his time has come.  I believe if the OL was even adequate he could have had a good year but another season gone and at the salary he will earn next season I don't think he's worth it.  Definitely has been worth the investment to date but it's time to pass the torch.  It's a shame -- wish he was just a couple of years younger and could be a part of what I think this Bills team will become.

 

This is where I'm at. I think he hit the wall. I'd love to be wrong and I hope he can be successful somewhere in the NFC, but he looks done.

Edited December 16, 2018 by Ol Dirty B

[MAJBobby]

On 12/13/2018 at 9:52 AM, TBBills Fan said:

At his salary, assuming we upgrade out offense in the offseason...

 

Lets say we pick up a RB in the draft and maybe a FA (not bell)...

 

Then at his salary is Shady worth it as a complimentary piece?

 

Between leadership and breakout plays it makes sense why beane said shady will be a part of 2019...he never said shady would be the centerpiece

 

No. He has hit the wall. 

 

Get younger and cheaper and the most interchangable position in the NFL

[purple haze]

On 12/14/2018 at 9:53 AM, DCOrange said:

I said that McCoy is paid like a top 3 RB and is not that level of player anymore and you asked if I was sure about that.

 

At any rate, we'll have to agree to disagree on McCoy being good still. Even ignoring the O-Line, he's simply not as elusive as he used to be. His elusiveness rating has dropped off from being elite early in his career to simply being good/great for a few years and has now been flat out bad for the past 2 years. Ivory, on the other hand, has been more successful in terms of making people miss, which is part of the reason that Ivory is ranked 22nd by PFF while McCoy is ranked 52nd out of 63. McCoy is dead last in DVOA versus Ivory being 29th out of 40, and Ivory is 30th in success rate versus McCoy being 36th. Pretty much everything out there suggests that Ivory is better than McCoy at this point and Ivory is at best a below average starter. 

 

The O-Line was relatively fine last year and McCoy still ranked among the worst qualified RBs in the league in all those categories with the exception of PFF where he rated as a below average starter.

I agree with you, he's not top 3.  I wasn't clear.  What I'm asking is if you are sure he's not a player we can keep next year and see him rebound.

Some analytics are cool.  Elusiveness rating I don't buy into.  It's too subjective.  And there is no world where I believe Chris Ivory is better if

all is even with health and a functional offensive line.  That said, the Bills need to plan for the future regardless.  A pick should be used on a RB

or we should get to see Ford play some these last few games to see what he can do in live action.  Bills might believe they already have the

future in him.  We shall see.

[MAJBobby]

2 minutes ago, purple haze said:

I agree with you, he's not top 3.  I wasn't clear.  What I'm asking is if you are sure he's not a player we can keep next year and see him rebound.

Some analytics are cool.  Elusiveness rating I don't buy into.  It's too subjective.  And there is no world where I believe Chris Ivory is better if

all is even with health and a functional offensive line.  That said, the Bills need to plan for the future regardless.  A pick should be used on a RB

or we should get to see Ford play some these last few games to see what he can do in live action.  Bills might believe they already have the

future in him.  We shall see.

 

No Move one. Get your cheap rookie and go. RB is just too easy to fill see Lindsey this year 

[purple haze]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

 

No Move one. Get your cheap rookie and go. RB is just too easy to fill see Lindsey this year 

I hear you.  I think Shady will be back next year.  But this off-season is about nothing else but that

offensive line for me.  They must address it thoroughly.  Spend draft capital and cap space.  The 

line cannot be what it has been this season.  If it is, Allen will not reach his development potential.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

....the whole Shady thing is as clear as mud to me ( then again, we're tallkin' OLDTIME)......has he hit the wall?.....is his production 99% attributable to the OL?........has today's hammy injury actually been lingering all season long but not highly published?.......has he lost the Kyle Williams' "sure glad to be here" drive?......would he prefer his 2019 release to hook on with a contender, even if at vet minimum for one last hurrah?.....CERTAINLY not a contender, but AP signed with Deadskins for vet minimum......have ZERO idea what to think............