Will Shady be worth it?

[NoHuddleKelly12]

9 hours ago, DCOrange said:

The obvious answer is no. He’s paid like a top 3 RB. He simply is not that level of player anymore. 

And we all know that when that time comes for a RB, the dropoff is like hitting a wall, with few exceptions to the rule. In space he is still dangerous, but I always got the feeling watching him this year that at the slightest bit of initial contact, he would never break free, minus the Barkley Jets game. Could he still have a career renaissance? Sure, but what would you bet on it?  

[Mr. WEO]

Time has taken it's toll on a guy who has always (current "O-line" issues or not) finished a lot of downs on the wrong side of the line of scrimmage.  He's a guy who can't make the yardage, but needs too much help making it.  Boom or bust.

 

It's not just about his cost, but you have to ask why the Bills would be the team that cannot find a younger guy in the draft who can't produce McCoy's current output on this offense.

[billsfan89]

I think Shady can be an elite 3rd down back who can play other downs on occasion. But I think the Bills need to find a back to take the early down work. I am not too high on Ivory but I would keep him for depth as I think he can fit that role. The team does have a need to draft a RB between round 3-5 in order to give the team much needed youth at the position. 

[John from Riverside]

10 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

He can play a 31 year old Thurman Thomas role but we need our Antowain Smith.  I wouldn't be shy in making a run or Jay Ajayi in free agency.

Any concerns about his injury history?

 

I was a big Ajayi fan in the draft

[purple haze]

10 hours ago, DCOrange said:

The obvious answer is no. He’s paid like a top 3 RB. He simply is not that level of player anymore. 

You sure about that?  I'm certain we won't see any posts from you that mention the offensive line then.  None of the RBs are doing much.  There's a reason for that.  Allen is running a lot.  There's a reason for that.  Offensive line is a detriment.  Fix that then let's see what Shady looks like.  

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

8 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

Watch what Shady does behind a good line in run blocking.  He’s worth it and we have the money.  His problem is he is trying to hard vs. just running north south.  I also don’t know why Daboll isn’t throwing to Shady b/c he is fantastic in open space.

 

.....baffling as to why Shady is not in a diversified role as was Thurmal/Kenneth Davis and Carwell Gardner as their plow horse.......why not Shady/Murphy and Ivory as the plow horse?....not sure what DiMarco could plow.......but Daboll knows best I guess.........

[billsfan_34]

I wanna say 9 mil next season? That is well past the market value for a RB at 31 years old and what appears to be in decline. Bean has gone on record and said Shady is in the plans for next season- I think as a business you have to honor that or risk losing trust.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

8 minutes ago, billsfan_34 said:

I wanna say 9 mil next season? That is well past the market value for a RB at 31 years old and what appears to be in decline. Bean has gone on record and said Shady is in the plans for next season- I think as a business you have to honor that or risk losing trust.

 

...so then why all of the beotching about how we didn't deal him at the trade deadline?.....who would have taken on THAT tariff?.....and doesn't his "play to date (yup it is 100% on the OL) make 31 GM's look like geniuses?.......

[DCOrange]

59 minutes ago, purple haze said:

You sure about that?  I'm certain we won't see any posts from you that mention the offensive line then.  None of the RBs are doing much.  There's a reason for that.  Allen is running a lot.  There's a reason for that.  Offensive line is a detriment.  Fix that then let's see what Shady looks like.  

 

Am I sure that McCoy is no longer a top 3 RB in the NFL? Yes. Are you actually questioning that? I honestly didn't think anyone would object to that at this point. If you think McCoy is still an above average starter, I can at least understand that even if I don't personally agree, but I don't think anyone in their right mind can argue that he's a top 3 RB anymore.

[billsfan_34]

1 hour ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...so then why all of the beotching about how we didn't deal him at the trade deadline?.....who would have taken on THAT tariff?.....and doesn't his "play to date (yup it is 100% on the OL) make 31 GM's look like geniuses?.......

No one wants that contract- especially when good RB’s out of college now are a dime a dozen. Sad thing, we had to overpay to get him to come here. 

[LABILLBACKER]

13 hours ago, DCOrange said:

The obvious answer is no. He’s paid like a top 3 RB. He simply is not that level of player anymore. 

He's not even a top 15 RB anymore. And even if we are successful in improving the OL, I don't see us justifying that salary and production. Shady is doing more shimmying than ever.

[Bing Bong]

13 hours ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

Respectfully, we have so much cap space that does it really make so much of a difference, other than a roster spot?

 

I think with a better oline Shady will be better, but regardless if you want him gone, then after next year he is gone and we get 8 million or so back on the cap in 2020.

We have too much cap space. A lot of money for 1 or 3 years is really the best route until we ever start paying people that we drafted and pan out

[Doc Brown]

6 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Any concerns about his injury history?

 

I was a big Ajayi fan in the draft

Yeah.  It's a concern but it could be a low/medium risk high reward depending on the contract.

[The Frankish Reich]

15 hours ago, Charlottebillsfan2 said:

I think that the point here is with the structure of his contract the Bills now have options. 

$9 million cap it. 

$6,425,000 in actual cash paid to him from team 

and only a $2,625,000 hit in dead cap space. 

 

My thoughts are the Bills should move on from him. Personally I would rather build a great o line and plug in a rookie RB every couple of years VIA draft. I would rather spend the money in other places. I just think the RB is a position you can fill every year if you have a solid line. 

 

Top 5 running backs based on yards in the NFL 

1 Elliott - 3rd season 

2 - Gurley - 4th season 

3 - Barkley - 1st season 

4- Lindsay - 1st season 

5 - McCaffrey - 2nd season 

 

That kind of says it all ... Shady, it's been a good 4 years in Buffalo, but this is not the place for you as the Bills retool.  I hope you find a good spot for another couple productive years on a playoff team.

[DCOrange]

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

14 hours ago, billsfan_34 said:

No one wants that contract- especially when good RB’s out of college now are a dime a dozen. Sad thing, we had to overpay to get him to come here. 

 

...exactly......2018-2019 tariff is $12.25 million.....no GM is taking that on if he covets his job.......AP signed with Deadskins for vet minimum........

[purple haze]

18 hours ago, DCOrange said:

 

Am I sure that McCoy is no longer a top 3 RB in the NFL? Yes. Are you actually questioning that? I honestly didn't think anyone would object to that at this point. If you think McCoy is still an above average starter, I can at least understand that even if I don't personally agree, but I don't think anyone in their right mind can argue that he's a top 3 RB anymore.

I didn't say anything about top three.  He's a good RB who can still get his usual 1,000 if the line is worth anything.  He's a good RB who can help the team if the line is worth anything. Fix the line and watch him run.  No RB, McCoy or anyone else, is doing anything behind the Bills current o-line.  It's a joke that people speak about how bad the o- line is in all facets, then tell  us McCoy is no good as if that doesn't play a major factor.  Ivory ain't running wild either. Hmmm??? 

Edited December 14, 2018 by purple haze

[DCOrange]

30 minutes ago, purple haze said:

I didn't say anything about top three.  He's a good RB who can still get his usual 1,000 if the line is worth anything.  He's a good RB who can help the team if the line is worth anything. Fix the line and watch him run.  No RB, McCoy or anyone else, is doing anything behind the Bills current o-line.  It's a joke that people speak about how bad the o- line is in all facets, then tell  us McCoy is no good as if that doesn't play a major factor.  Ivory ain't running wild either. Hmmm??? 

I said that McCoy is paid like a top 3 RB and is not that level of player anymore and you asked if I was sure about that.

 

At any rate, we'll have to agree to disagree on McCoy being good still. Even ignoring the O-Line, he's simply not as elusive as he used to be. His elusiveness rating has dropped off from being elite early in his career to simply being good/great for a few years and has now been flat out bad for the past 2 years. Ivory, on the other hand, has been more successful in terms of making people miss, which is part of the reason that Ivory is ranked 22nd by PFF while McCoy is ranked 52nd out of 63. McCoy is dead last in DVOA versus Ivory being 29th out of 40, and Ivory is 30th in success rate versus McCoy being 36th. Pretty much everything out there suggests that Ivory is better than McCoy at this point and Ivory is at best a below average starter. 

 

The O-Line was relatively fine last year and McCoy still ranked among the worst qualified RBs in the league in all those categories with the exception of PFF where he rated as a below average starter.

Edited December 14, 2018 by DCOrange

[Bill from NYC]

I'm not so sure. Lets ask BADOLBILZ what he thinks.

 

Oh wait, he told us long ago and was shouted down!!!

[prissythecat]

1 hour ago, Bill from NYC said:

I'm not so sure. Lets ask BADOLBILZ what he thinks.

 

Oh wait, he told us long ago and was shouted down!!!

 

 

Well , he did shine the light on Shady.  Mike Gillislee,  Ryan Matthews, and DeMarco Murray were all better backs than Shady.