Zay Jones & Robert Foster - Advanced Metrics

[Antonio]

Advance Metrics Zay Jones 2018 vs Draft Class.xlsx

 

Well I took some time to compare Zay to his Draft Class, if you have some time take a look.

 

I only included 13 of them includin McKenzi cause he is a Bills now.

 

I added ** to the teams that I think the QB play influences a lot (Top Tier QB) in this rankings 

 

What I take from this is that we should expect better production, kind of like Kenny Golladay, with better QB play. They both have similar playing time and Target Share.

 

If I have time I will do it for Foster later on. 

[RoyBatty is alive]

4 hours ago, DCOrange said:

 

Zay is in a group of 17.

 

And the beauty of this is that the QB play should, in theory, not matter. Having Peterman/Anderson throw off-target passes to Zay aren't being counted here. It's only counted if he has an actual chance to catch the ball. There's definitely some limitations there, as I imagine there's at least a decent degree of subjectiveness in determining what is and isn't catchable.

 

But for example, Zay was targeted 74 times as a rookie but only 47 of them were considered catchable. This year, he's been targeted 78 times and only 63 are considered catchable.

 

Now that is an interesting stat, what it is is a real indictment of Tyrod Taylor, esp compared to an allegedly inaccurate rookie and three other scrubs.

 

So 40% of Tyrod throws to Jones were uncatchable and this year 19%?  Somewhat mitigating that is a sure some of those uncatchable balls were the rookies fault for not running the right route.

Edited December 12, 2018 by RoyBatty is alive

[MJS]

Zay Jones is like a poor man's Robert Woods. I don't ever see him becoming a #1 WR, but he should always have a job and can be your #2 or #3 WR in a pinch.

 

It's difficult to know what Foster could be. His speed is impressive, but there are a lot of guys in the NFL with speed. He'll have to up his game in other areas and start making contested catches to be a #1. I don't see that happening, but he can be your deep threat.

 

They are both average, quality WR's. I bet having a true, elite #1 WR ahead of them on the depth chart (a guy you have to double) would do wonders for their stats and effectiveness.

[Alphadawg7]

QUESTION:  How are Kelvin Benjamin and Mike Evans "peers" of Robert Foster or even any of the other guys on the list?  They are not remotely close to the same WR as Foster, Goodwin, Jackson, etc.  KB is big and slow as molasses.  Evans is fast, but he is a physical freak and a beast.  I am not following how they are in the same peer group.  Seems like a mistake to have them inside this sample.  I can think of a lot of there WR's that are closer to his peer group that aren't on your list.

 

Same question for Zay's "peers".  Guys like Adams and Hopkins are way different types of WR.  Antonio Brown has way more speed and explosiveness.  Missing are guys that are really more like his peer group in type of WR, like Robert Woods, Doug Baldwin, etc.  

 

Certainly appreciate the work, but the peer groups to me are not very accurate comparisons on either player.  

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

Foster has grown on me over the course of the year. He's a Buffalo "blue collar" kind of guy and he's good for the team and the city. He could be the kind of role model every team wants and hopefully his production will continue to rise. He has gotten separation at this level and it's important. Now once the rest of his game comes along, I think he could be a great #2 or #3 and get 45-50+ REC,  700+ YDS and 6-8 TD's annually. Hopefully more.  

Zay could be a #2 possession type receiver and/or #3 slot guy working the inside of the field. I don't see him as the stretcher that Foster is.  I think all we really need is the #1 WR. The contest catch machine who makes big plays, can stretch the field and draws double coverage so others can make plays. Neither Zay or Foster are the mismatch creators.  

 

My goal would be get that #1, shore up the line with 3 new bodies,  get a real threat at TE,  and find a new bell cow #1 RB. That's a big order for one off-season but I feel we don't need 2-3 new WR with the emergence of these 2 and McKenzie as a #4 and special teamer. 

[DCOrange]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

QUESTION:  How are Kelvin Benjamin and Mike Evans "peers" of Robert Foster or even any of the other guys on the list?  They are not remotely close to the same WR as Foster, Goodwin, Jackson, etc.  KB is big and slow as molasses.  Evans is fast, but he is a physical freak and a beast.  I am not following how they are in the same peer group.  Seems like a mistake to have them inside this sample.  I can think of a lot of there WR's that are closer to his peer group that aren't on your list.

 

Same question for Zay's "peers".  Guys like Adams and Hopkins are way different types of WR.  Antonio Brown has way more speed and explosiveness.  Missing are guys that are really more like his peer group in type of WR, like Robert Woods, Doug Baldwin, etc.  

 

Certainly appreciate the work, but the peer groups to me are not very accurate comparisons on either player.  

 

It's based on average target depth. Benjamin and Mike Evans rank in the top 15 in the league this year in terms of how deep their average target is. They certainly aren't the typical archetype of a deep threat, but that's the way the numbers have averaged out this year. Evans just barely snuck into the top 15. There's actually only 6 WRs in the entire league that have received deeper targets on average than Benjamin.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

 

It's based on average target depth. Benjamin and Mike Evans rank in the top 15 in the league this year in terms of how deep their average target is. They certainly aren't the typical archetype of a deep threat, but that's the way the numbers have averaged out this year. Evans just barely snuck into the top 15. There's actually only 6 WRs in the entire league that have received deeper targets on average than Benjamin.

 

Gotcha, thanks for the clarification

[LABILLBACKER]

8 hours ago, Magox said:

Robert Foster without doubt has a much higher ceiling than Zay Jones.

 

Zay is a more polished route runner but Foster has much more speed and separation capabilities.   They both have a future in the league.

 

I'm beginning to change my views on Foster, if he can continue to progress the way we've seen and he commits to his route running and continues to demonstrate good hands then he actually could end up being a very productive receiver in this league.

I see Foster being a much better,  bigger and more durable version of Goodwin. I see Zay being slightly less reliable than Woods. Our #1 wr will come in April.

Harry or M Brown. 

[artmalibu]

I have been a Jones fan from last year.  But, I dont think he could ever be a #1 WR.  IMO Jones could be a solid #2.  If the Bill can get a legit #1 and decent production from the TE position Jones will do well.  

[atlbillsfan1975]

Can Foster be Allen’s Antonio Brown?

Edited December 13, 2018 by atlbillsfan1975

[DCOrange]

For those wondering why catches + drops doesn’t equal catchable targets, watching Zay today was a good example of it. He really struggled to make contested catches.