Charting Allen's throws vs. Jets

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, dakrider said:

Its not just receivers being able to catch the ball, its also receivers that can beat their defender and make great catches.  How many great catches do Bills receivers make a game? 
Maybe have one all game if their lucky.  If you have a bunch of pedestrian receivers your going to mostly have a bunch of pedestrian results.   

Great receivers get open and find the seams in zones.  And then they are able to beat their defenders more so than not.  Go look at top receivers stats and the first Bills player is Zay Jones at #74.  I don't think any Bills receiver would be a starter on any another team that had their top receivers healthy.  

Bills need a #1 receiver with size and speed that is a real threat.  Benjamin obviously was not it. 

Lost in all this....

 

Josh Allen's velocity on the balls make it possible for receivers to catch a ball and turn upfield (if they catch it) and make it very difficult for a defender to break on a ball (ala Peterman)

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

You know who doesn't drop that ball??? Antonio Brown  or Keenan Allen.  Why?  Because they don't let the ball hit them in the chest pads and bounce off.  They use their hands.  Freaking football 101.  That's a 17 yard hitch; you either throw with anticipation before the receiver makes his break; or you throw with power as he makes his break.  If not, that's a Peterman special waiting to happen.  One of the major issues with Zay Jones is that he tends to body-catch balls.

 

Edited December 11, 2018 by Lieutenant Aldo Raine

[LSHMEAB]

2 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

Perhaps the reason for 1800 yds is the fact he only attempted 270 passes. Counter that with Rosen, who had 452 attempts for 3700 yards last year.

 

However, in 2016, Allen had 373 attempts for 3200, while Rosen had 231 attempts for 1900 yds.

 

Funny how that goes...

I hope he's better than Rosen because it's beginning to look like he's a stiff.

 

We need to stop judging Allen against the 2018 class because it's sort of meaningless. Even if Rosen, Mayfield, Darnold, and Jackson all bust, it doesn't mean Allen is going to be a stud.

 

It would be sort of crazy if Jackson is the best of the bunch. I'm out on Rosen and Darnold. I believe in Mayfield. Jury is very much out on Jackson and Allen.

1 hour ago, Mat68 said:

No differant than Farve.  He had some terrible Ints.  He would argue that it worked out more than not.  Now Allen has 1000% faith in his arm.  He thinks he can fit the ball in any window.  That gets him in trouble.  His pick was no better or worse than Russell Wilson last night.  Imo Allen gets a little cocky with the cross body throws.  This will tone him down a bit.  The one that ended the game I dont hate.  He threw a 1 on 1 ball when they needed a chunk play.  

He was locked in on that route and didn't recognize Murphy sprinting wide open towards the sideline for what would have been 15 yards.

 

I may be in the minority, but I think his recognition is more of an issue than accuracy. He's a rookie so it's entirely possible that will improve with time, but there's no guarantee.

[Gugny]

2 hours ago, teef said:

jesus h. christ.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesus_H._Christ

 

The number of variant forms, usually with "H" replaced by something longer, is vast.^[14] "Jesus Harold Christ" (i.e. - "Our Father, who art in Heaven, Harold be thy name...") is mentioned above. Smith notes Jesus Holy Christ, Jesus Henry Christ, and Jesus H. Particular Christ.^[11]Green's Dictionary of Slang gives Jeezus K. Reist, Jesus F. Christ, Jesus H, Jesus H. Mahogany Christ, Jesus Hopping Christ, Jesus Johnnycake Christ, Jesus X. Christ, and Judas H. Christ.

For Smith, the very presence of so many spelled-out variants is part of the humor -- and blasphemy -- inherent in "Jesus H. Christ". He suggests that the H offers "the power of taking the Lord's name in vain by adding something to it that the imagination is invited to complete: What does the H. stand for? -- whatever the errant imagination proposes and the imaginer is disposed to enjoy."^[

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

I'm not saying that the ball shouldn't have been caught. I'm saying that the velocity was such that you're going to see an inordinate number of drops by receivers on the Bills given that he throws harder than anyone in the history of the league and has touch issues. Jones doesn't actually have bad hands and has been catching the ball pretty well lately. That throw was blazing. Could have been caught? Yes, of course, and maybe it is 6-7 times out of ten. My simple point is that the drop chances increase when the velocity goes up as high as it does with Allen. That's just basic logic. It's not the first time we've seen it go through a receiver's hand because there was too much mustard on it. 

 

I'm sorry but I think that's ridiculous. If it had gotten there slower the defender would have hit Zay as the ball hit his hands and he would have dropped it anyways. That pass only has a chance to be completed while he's open because of the velocity. If Zay can't catch a fast ball he won't last much longer in this league. If he can't make a single great catch to save a poor pass he needs to at least catch the easy ones consistently.

[John from Riverside]

15 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I hope he's better than Rosen because it's beginning to look like he's a stiff.

 

We need to stop judging Allen against the 2018 class because it's sort of meaningless. Even if Rosen, Mayfield, Darnold, and Jackson all bust, it doesn't mean Allen is going to be a stud.

 

It would be sort of crazy if Jackson is the best of the bunch. I'm out on Rosen and Darnold. I believe in Mayfield. Jury is very much out on Jackson and Allen.

He was locked in on that route and didn't recognize Murphy sprinting wide open towards the sideline for what would have been 15 yards.

 

I may be in the minority, but I think his recognition is more of an issue than accuracy. He's a rookie so it's entirely possible that will improve with time, but there's no guarantee.

Im sorry but that really is not fair....if those QBs were killing it there would be right here front and center pointing it out......because they are NOT playing better it is not supposed to used a metric now?

[LSHMEAB]

1 minute ago, John from Riverside said:

Im sorry but that really is not fair....if those QBs were killing it there would be right here front and center pointing it out......because they are NOT playing better it is not supposed to used a metric now?

I've never used it as a metric because it's meaningless. I'd rather look at guys who eventually panned out and see if there are parallels on guys improving on the things Allen needs to improve upon. Because as I've stated a million times as a FACT; ALL OF THESE QUARTERBACKS MAY BUST!

[Zackry00]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

The list of rookie 1st round picks from the past 20 years who played as rookies with a QB Rating in the 60s who went onto become franchise QBs is extremely short. 

 

As things stand, the list is Jared Goff, Matt Stafford (who has never really been very good) and Alex Smith. 

 

Peyton Manning had a 56% completion rate in his rookie year.  Eli Manning had a 48% completion rate in his rookie year.  Drew Brees had a 60% rate his second year and a 57% rate his 3rd year.  Jim Kelly had a 59% rate his rookie year and in 1995 had a 55% rate.   But take a look at John Elway's stats.  His career completion rate is 56%.  

[dave mcbride]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'm sorry but I think that's ridiculous. If it had gotten there slower the defender would have hit Zay as the ball hit his hands and he would have dropped it anyways. That pass only has a chance to be completed while he's open because of the velocity. If Zay can't catch a fast ball he won't last much longer in this league. If he can't make a single great catch to save a poor pass he needs to at least catch the easy ones consistently.

Jones has decent hands and isn't a bad player. Guys like Favre and Elway struggled with this issue, and it was noted at the time. Allen throws harder than both of them.

[BuffaloHokie13]

Maybe I missed it, as I have not read every page, but did anyone actually chart the passes? Or did the OP just give opinions on each one individually. I'm looking for heat maps over here...

[jrober38]

9 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Maybe I missed it, as I have not read every page, but did anyone actually chart the passes? Or did the OP just give opinions on each one individually. I'm looking for heat maps over here...

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/list/pass/buffalo-bills/season/week/josh-allen/ALL529264/2018/14/pass

[K-9]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Fair point--used to happen to Favre pretty regularly until WRs learned that they needed to up their concentration when it came to catching his fastballs.

Allen threw a great touch pass to DiMarco down the right sideline vs. Miami. It was the definition of touch.

 

The throw to Zay was perfect. The onus is in the receiver to make that catch, regardless of the amount of zip on the ball and it wasn’t like Allen put everything he has into that throw, either. That pattern calls for the ball to get there quickly and it did (contrast that delivery with Peterman’s). It was lousy technique by Jones. 

[Teddy KGB]

45 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I hope he's better than Rosen because it's beginning to look like he's a stiff.

 

What kind of stiff hurdles linebackers and runs for 99/100/136 yards as a QB ? 

[LSHMEAB]

Just now, Teddy KGB said:

 

What kind of stiff hurdles linebackers and runs for 99/100/136 yards as a QB ? 

I was referring to Rosen.

 

I actually wanted Rosen in the draft. Still not sold on Allen, but I'm confident he'll have a better career than the other Josh. Something missing from that guy's game. No zip and too immobile. I get that Rosen has a poor line, but the slow QB's have to have subtle pocket awareness to buy themselves some time. I just don't see it.

[billsfan1959]

14 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I hope he's better than Rosen because it's beginning to look like he's a stiff.

 

We need to stop judging Allen against the 2018 class because it's sort of meaningless. Even if Rosen, Mayfield, Darnold, and Jackson all bust, it doesn't mean Allen is going to be a stud.

 

It would be sort of crazy if Jackson is the best of the bunch. I'm out on Rosen and Darnold. I believe in Mayfield. Jury is very much out on Jackson and Allen.

He was locked in on that route and didn't recognize Murphy sprinting wide open towards the sideline for what would have been 15 yards.

 

I may be in the minority, but I think his recognition is more of an issue than accuracy. He's a rookie so it's entirely possible that will improve with time, but there's no guarantee.

I'm not judging him against Rosen or any of the other rookie QBS. I was just pointing out some similar college stats between the two because you referenced Allen's 1800 yds last year and it was misleading.

 

I judge Allen all on his own - not against the other rookies. Each is in a very different situation with different skill sets. I am not in or out on any of them, as it is way too early to tell. Mayfield has looked good at times but has a better offensive supporting cast; although he has struggled against good defenses. Jackson has literally played against four of the worst defenses in the NFL in his starts and still hasn't looked that good in the passing game. Rosen has little in the way of offensive talent around him. Allen also has little to no offensive talent around him and has, by far, played the most difficult schedule in terms of Defensive DVOA rankings (avg ranking of opponents is 8th, vs 11th for Darnold, 16th for Rosen, 21st for Mayfield, and 29th for Jackson).

 

I do not think Allen's accuracy is a major issue. I also think that, what is being criticized in terms of decision making and recognition is more a function of situation and experience rather than ability. I think we tend to over analyze the play of rookie quarterbacks. Allen has much room for improvement; however, the positives I have seen far outweigh the negatives. Only time will tell.

 

 

[billsredneck1]

6 hours ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

Here is one take away you can take from all the work put into this thread.  Look at the first Quarter where Allen drove the team down the field with accurate short quick routes (as well as a long run).  He was accurate and had some rhythm.   Then Daboll reverts back to a longer passing tree, and while Allen hits some big gainers, the routes take longer to develop and the line has to block longer.  Bottom line:  you can see where the offensive game plan shift away from quick hitters to longer developing routes - thus a decrease in completion percentage.  If Daboll can stay disciplined in his play calling, Josh's completion percentage will improve dramatically in my opinion.   I understand the temptation with the arm talent Josh has to call a downfield passing game, but the team is not quite built for that yet, and Josh needs to continue to refine his short game.  

agree 100%!  he is gonna have opponents where he will need to pick apart defenses with a chain moving, clock eating offense.  also by mastering this, he will have more opportunities for the long ball.  he has to be able to use all facets of the offense.

[billsredneck1]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

I'm not saying that the ball shouldn't have been caught. I'm saying that the velocity was such that you're going to see an inordinate number of drops by receivers on the Bills given that he throws harder than anyone in the history of the league and has touch issues. Jones doesn't actually have bad hands and has been catching the ball pretty well lately. That throw was blazing. Could have been caught? Yes, of course, and maybe it is 6-7 times out of ten. My simple point is that the drop chances increase when the velocity goes up as high as it does with Allen. That's just basic logic. It's not the first time we've seen it go through a receiver's hand because there was too much mustard on it. 

i could be wrong but that pass to zay i thought you could almost hear it hit his chest.....coulda been me stompimg up and down, idk....shoulda caught it.

[VW82]

Thanks to everyone who replied. Here is my consolidated response:

 

1. The Clay drop: looks like I missed that one. If you add everything up qbq I'm one throw short, so looks like that was the only one. I remember the play but I've now deleted the game from PVR. Does anyone have time and quarter so I can belatedly add it?

2. The Clay drop doesn't impact anything. I wasn't measuring drops or big time throws. I wasn't measuring accuracy vs. precision. I was measuring rate of bad/inaccurate throws. The pbp is up there for you to analyze whatever you want. Just remember to add the Clay drop

 

To Oldmanfan, thanks for actually going through the throws. We disagree on some of them. I suppose one could say you're the pro-Allen view (5 bad throws) and I'm the anti-Allen view (7 bad throws) and take the middle number. To your point about what 20% means, and doing the same analysis for other QBs...sure. We need to do it for every QB to properly rate Allen. Not going to happen. What I'd say is look at his completion percentage. Even if you adjust for drops I'm guessing he's near or at the bottom of the NFL on the year.

 

Re precision vs. accuracy, completion percentage is a(n imperfect) measure of accuracy. If you look at some his misses (over shoots DiMarco vs. under shoots Ivory, high on both Clay and Mckenzie over the middle, throws behind Foster down the sideline, behind Zay on that crazy pass attempt while running OB to start second half,  in front of Thompson crossing where he dove forward and couldn't come up with it) it seems clear he's all over the place. His precision is poor. If you feel like the combination of his completion percentage on the year vs. other players combined with this type of analysis (even though it's only for him and only one game) doesn't at least provide some initial (albeit incomplete) evidence to suggest he's both inaccurate and not precise...I don't know what to tell you. I wish NFL would do a better job with publicly available stats. 

 

Also, there are four possibilities when Allen makes a throw: 1. good decision and inaccurate; 2. good decision and accurate; 3. poor decision and inaccurate; 4. poor decision and accurate. You seem to be suggesting that once Allen makes a bad decision that means he was accurate. You don't know that. I would argue that miss to Zay in the 3rd where he scrambled early was both a bad decision and inaccurate. He threw way behind Zay with the ball landing near Jets defenders. He's not throwing it away there. He's trying to complete a pass.  

 

 

 

 

Edited December 11, 2018 by VW82

[oldmanfan]

13 hours ago, VW82 said:

Thanks to everyone who replied. Here is my consolidated response:

 

1. The Clay drop: looks like I missed that one. If you add everything up qbq I'm one throw short, so looks like that was the only one. I remember the play but I've now deleted the game from PVR. Does anyone have time and quarter so I can belatedly add it?

2. The Clay drop doesn't impact anything. I wasn't measuring drops or big time throws. I wasn't measuring accuracy vs. precision. I was measuring rate of bad/inaccurate throws. The pbp is up there for you to analyze whatever you want. Just remember to add the Clay drop

 

To Oldmanfan, thanks for actually going through the throws. We disagree on some of them. I suppose one could say you're the pro-Allen view (5 bad throws) and I'm the anti-Allen view (7 bad throws) and take the middle number. To your point about what 20% means, and doing the same analysis for other QBs...sure. We need to do it for every QB to properly rate Allen. Not going to happen. What I'd say is look at his completion percentage. Even if you adjust for drops I'm guessing he's near or at the bottom of the NFL on the year.

 

Re precision vs. accuracy, completion percentage is a(n imperfect) measure of accuracy. If you look at some his misses (over shoots DiMarco vs. under shoots Ivory, high on both Clay and Mckenzie over the middle, throws behind Foster down the sideline, behind Zay on that crazy pass attempt while running OB to start second half,  in front of Thompson crossing where he dove forward and couldn't come up with it) it seems clear he's all over the place. His precision is poor. If you feel like the combination of his completion percentage on the year vs. other players combined with this type of analysis (even though it's only for him and only one game) doesn't at least provide some initial (albeit incomplete) evidence to suggest he's both inaccurate and not precise...I don't know what to tell you. I wish NFL would do a better job with publicly available stats. 

 

Also, there are four possibilities when Allen makes a throw: 1. good decision and inaccurate; 2. good decision and accurate; 3. poor decision and inaccurate; 4. poor decision and accurate. You seem to be suggesting that once Allen makes a bad decision you somehow know he was accurate. You don't know that. I would argue that miss to Zay in the 3rd where he scrambled early was both a bad decision and inaccurate. He threw way behind Zay with the ball landing near Jets defenders. He's not throwing it away there. He's trying to complete a pass.  

 

 

 

 

You are correct on the four options.  One can certainly make a bad decision and then also be inaccurate when you throw the ball.

 

Completion percentage is not an indicator of accuracy.  Let me explain why, and why the simplification of statistical analysis leads people astray.  Let's take the throw to Clay that you inadvertently omitted.  He dropped a well thrown ball.  Very accurate. Very precise.  Now that turns into a negative on completion percentage and thus negatively skews the data even though it wasn't on Allen.

 

 But that's not the only thing you have to consider in trying to statistically analyze QBs. Here's just a few things you'd have to throw into an analysis that could skew your completion percentage data:

 

Weather (lot of wind affects thing)

Length of the throw- many college QBs have skewed data because they throw short patterns

Quality of your WR corps

Quality of defensive backs

Offensive scheme

How many balls are thrown away to avoid the rush

 

And so on.  To really evaluate completion percentages what a statistician would employ is multivariate analysis, and although I have a decent understanding of stats I am nowhere near good enough to figure out how you would set it up.

 

So if we take the game Sunday, and take out the drops and the throwaways (because Allen deliberately wanted to throw incompletions in that case) his completion percentage is in the 60s.  That's the mathematical reality, and why I discount that statistic.

 

Now those who don't like Allen will just say that every QB throws balls away, and every QB has dropped passes.  Ok, thenshow me the data.  Pick another guy or two and see if it's true.

 

Now to accuracy and precision.  Ideally a QB is both.  Those type guys are in Canton; they fit balls into very tight windows.  Allen truly needs to work more on precision; his accuracy is not bad.  True he was inaccurate on a couple like the throw to Thompson but most all his throws his receivers get their hands on the ball with opportunities to make a catch.  That's accurate, but not as precise as desired.

 

I suspect the next thing that will come up is that he can't improve accuracy.  Wrong.  That is mechanics, and mechanics can be improved by hard practice and repetition.  Allen has shown he can be accurate, what he needs to do is improve his consistency.  And that is possible with practice.  You play golf?  You get better with practice, right?  Develop more touch and consistency?  Or can your jumper in basketball improve?  Yep. So can throwing a ball.

 

I think the primary thing Allen and any young QB needs are:  1.  Continued work on mechanics (and that would include working with your receivers constantly to make sure their routes are solid etc- a big reason why Payton and Brady are Payton and Brady) and 2.  Getting the game to slow down so you make good reads and you get the ball delivered in time with consistency.  What I like over the past couple games is I see Allen hanging in the picket making reads more than earlier in the year.  And some of those reads are for him to run.  Archuletta made an interesting comment the other day.  On one of his long runs he talked about how Allen read the MLB and when he moved laterally Allen knew the middle of the field would be wide open for the run.  So I think he'll seeing things more clearly and that's good.

 

Is Allen the answer? I think so, but time will tell.  He needs to continue to improve decision making, needs work on those touch passes.  Those are all legitimate comments and I think Allen himself would agree.  I think what drives me the craziest around here are the pronouncements, like yours, that he is inaccurate and can't improve, or he hasn't shown any improvement, or that he can't ever be an accurate QB.  It is simply silly to try and make a definitive judgment like that on any player at any position, much less the most difficult one to play.  What I do know right now is Allen brings a rather unique skill set, and when he steps on the field I get the feeling things will happen.  And as a fan that's good for me right now.

Edited December 12, 2018 by oldmanfan
typos

[Bangarang]

5 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

I will give you that.  If he was trying to throw it out of bounds and went inside then he was way off on accuracy.  I just don't think you should confuse poor decision making with accuracy.

 

Im not, I think that play was a combination of both.