Charting Allen's throws vs. Jets

[LSHMEAB]

39 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

Lack of production????  Apparently you base everything on college stats.  Kid took a dreadful 2-8 team in 2015 to two straight bowl games in 2016 and 2017.  By your standard; Ty Detmer, Andre Ware, and David Klinger should have been NFL Hall of Famers.  

And now they're 6-6 having won 4 straight games.

 

My point remains; if you want to cite the downfield passing system at Wyoming as an excuse for a low completion percentage, then why did he only throw for 1800 yards and 16 TD's in the Mountain West? You can't have it both ways.

 

There are real concerns with Allen along with real talent. There's no need to make excuses. Let's focus on what's real.

Edited December 11, 2018 by LSHMEAB

[PolishPrince]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

 

Only 7 of Allen’s 36 attempts were greater than 15 yards. 

 

19 of his attempts were 10 yards or less.

 

not exactly what I would call a downfield attack..

Odd considering before the Jets game Allen was leading the league in Air yards per pass... but yeah he is a checkdown masta

[Bangarang]

2 minutes ago, PolishPrince said:

Odd considering before the Jets game Allen was leading the league in Air yards per pass... but yeah he is a checkdown masta

 

1. I’m only referring to the attempts from the last game. 

 

2. I never called him a check down master so I’m not sure where that nonsense is coming from

[John from Riverside]

10 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

And now they're 6-6 having won 4 straight games.

 

My point remains; if you want to cite the downfield passing system at Wyoming as an excuse for a low completion percentage, then why did he only throw for 1800 yards and 16 TD's in the Mountain West? You can't have it both ways.

 

There are real concerns with Allen along with real talent. There's no need to make excuses. Let's focus on what's real.

Had the offensive scheme for Allen included more of the "gimmie" passes like the other QBs.....there is no way he would have been there for us available at 7.

 

As it is he is outplaying everyone but Mayfield who is up and down himself (I realize Darnold won the game but overall Josh is outplaying him and basically carrying this team)

[LSHMEAB]

2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Had the offensive scheme for Allen included more of the "gimmie" passes like the other QBs.....there is no way he would have been there for us available at 7.

 

As it is he is outplaying everyone but Mayfield who is up and down himself (I realize Darnold won the game but overall Josh is outplaying him and basically carrying this team)

I think overall this class may end up being historically overrated.

 

Based on potential, Mayfield is the only guy I'd probably take over Allen. That being said, the Wyoming completion percentage excuse would carry a lot more weight had he been more prolific.

[jrober38]

6 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Had the offensive scheme for Allen included more of the "gimmie" passes like the other QBs.....there is no way he would have been there for us available at 7.

 

As it is he is outplaying everyone but Mayfield who is up and down himself (I realize Darnold won the game but overall Josh is outplaying him and basically carrying this team)

 

This isn't in line with reality. The issue with Allen is that he struggles with the gimme passes.

 

He's great at the hard throws that few people can make, but misses too many easy ones. 

 

Putting more of them in the playbook at Wyoming wouldn't have helped, because those are the throws he struggles with the most. 

Edited December 11, 2018 by jrober38

[Teddy KGB]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

Why do you continue to ignore that every QB in the NFL has receivers who drop the ball?

 

Go ahead and name the nfl teams that have worse receivers than the Buffalo Bills.   

 

 

[sunshynman]

3 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

Why are you bringing objectivity and reason into this?

 

BTW: Greetings from another Bills fan in the Raleigh area 

 

Logic, Right!

 

p.s. Apex, in the house. If your driving around Beltline and see a black Ridgeline pickup with silver charging Buffalo taking up the back window give me the BEEP BEEP BEEPBEEPBEEP! In the Let's go Buffalo melody. Or you may have given me the GO BILL's shout as I typically have my Bills gear on if I'm out and about! 

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

This isn't in line with reality. The issue with Allen is that he struggles with the gimme passes.

 

He's great at the hard throws that few people can make, but struggles with the easy one. 

 

Putting more of them in the playbook at Wyoming wouldn't have helped, because those are the throws he struggles with the most. 

He was doing quite will with the short game in this past game against the jets in the 1st half....the numbers bear that out.

 

For some reason we started going vertical in the second half of the game.

 

Its not that he cant do it......it was not part of their scheme.

[billsfan1959]

16 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

And now they're 6-6 having won 4 straight games.

 

My point remains; if you want to cite the downfield passing system at Wyoming as an excuse for a low completion percentage, then why did he only throw for 1800 yards and 16 TD's in the Mountain West? You can't have it both ways.

 

There are real concerns with Allen along with real talent. There's no need to make excuses. Let's focus on what's real.

Perhaps the reason for 1800 yds is the fact he only attempted 270 passes. Counter that with Rosen, who had 452 attempts for 3700 yards last year.

 

However, in 2016, Allen had 373 attempts for 3200, while Rosen had 231 attempts for 1900 yds.

 

Funny how that goes...

[jrober38]

14 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

He was doing quite will with the short game in this past game against the jets in the 1st half....the numbers bear that out.

 

For some reason we started going vertical in the second half of the game.

 

Its not that he cant do it......it was not part of their scheme.

 

Again, this isn't really true.

 

At halftime Allen was 9 of 18 for 95 yards passing (5.3 YPA), with a terrible interception. 

 

His first half passing was no better than the second. He just ran it a lot better when he scrambled. 

Edited December 11, 2018 by jrober38

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

15 hours ago, VW82 said:

Allen did a lot of things on the field yesterday but I want to only look at the throws he attempted so we can better understand what's actually happening, and specifically his propensity for throwing bad passes. For the record, I understand this isn't fair to him. Josh makes plays with his legs, and extends plays other QBs don't. That's all fine and good. This is about what happens when he throws the ball, and trying to better understand the reasons behind his accuracy issues (i.e. is it on him, his receivers, his line, etc.?). 

 

1st quarter:

 

14:48 - quick out to Zay Jones on target (penalty Dawkins) 1/1

14:30 - connects on a nice curl with McKenzie for 18 yards 2/2

12:40 - play action but no one's open. Josh buys time scrambling right and throws it away. 2/3

11:48 - screen to McCoy. Josh throws it a little before he's ready and McCoy drops it. 2/4

11:00 - dump off to Murphy after a blitz on 3rd and 7. First down. 3/5

3:28 - play action dump off to Thomas for 5 yards. 4/6

2:40 - read option, quick out to Zay for 5 yards and a first. 5/7

2:05 - play action quick dump off to Dimarco. Pass was inaccurate and falls incomplete. 5/8

2:00 - quick slant to Clay over the middle for 6 yards. 6/9

1:15 - Allen draws Jets offside with the hard count, takes a shot and misses but draws the flag. 6/9

 

Summary: 6/9 completed passes, only one inaccurate throw and it happened when Allen was under duress.

 

2nd quarter:

 

5:41 - Josh has tons of time but throws over Clay's head incomplete (penalty Jets - as an aside, I watched this play multiple times and Clay doesn't make that catch even if he isn't held. The throw was too high.)

5:36 - quick throw to the left behind the line to McKenzie. The throw is way off but McKenzie makes a great catch and runs for five yards (penalty Foster OPI)

4:57 - The infamous pick for grabs. We all saw it. It might have been Allen's worst throw on the year. 0/1

2:00 - Josh stands in the pocket and delivers a great throw to McKenzie for 19 yards. 1/2

1:35 - Lots of time, eventually Allen gets chased out and throws it away. 1/3

1:27 - Again lots of time. Allen throws over the middle and air mails a wide open McKenzie. Dropped INT by the defender. 1/4

1:21 - Allen takes a huge shot as he throws a great ball to Foster for 15 on a curl. 2/5

1:12 - Josh badly misses a short throw over the middle to Thompson who was wide open. Thompson dove for the ball and almost made an incredible play. 2/6

0:47 - Josh throws a little behind Zay on a crossing route to the left, Zay drops it. He should have caught that one. 2/7

0:36 - quick out to Zay for 4 yards. 3/8

 

Summary: 3/8 completed passes. 2 kinda bad throws (to McKenzie and Clay); 2 legit bad throws (McKenzie and Thompson); 1 WOAT-type throw (INT)

 

3rd quarter:

 

14:07 - Quick throw to the left behind the line to Foster for 2 yards. 1/1

13:34 - Allen leaves the pocket early before there's any pressure, runs toward the pressure, then makes the exact same throw that resulted in the INT in the first half. It lands no where near a Bills receiver though I think it was meant for Zay. 1/2

5:35 - Play action dump off to Ivory. The throw is no where near accurate, forcing Ivory to have to stop his route and come back 180 degrees to make a play. on it, and he almost makes it. 1/3

5:29 - Allen stands in the pocket and delivers a nice ball to Foster along the sideline for a first down. 2/4

4:11 - Allen quick hits McKenzie over the middle. McKenzie makes a nice move for big PAC. 3/5

3:27 - Pass rush quickly forces Josh into scramble mode, and he throws it away. 3/6

 

Summary: 3/6 passes completed; one bad throw (Ivory), one really, really bad throw (Zay).  

 

4th quarter:

 

10:07 - Josh doesn't like what he sees, and so he scampers right to buy time and completes a nice out to Foster for 6 yards. 1/1 (penalty on Jets)

9:42 - Play action roll out. Nice throw on the move to Thompson for a first down. 2/2

9:17 - trick screen play completed to Murphy for 2 yards. (penalty OPI on Foster)

8:51 - Allen is forced to get rid of it early due to pressure and the ball sails on him just OB. 2/3

8:45 - Allen throws a rocket right into Zay chest. We know how that turned out. 2/4

8:40 - Allen is pressured right and completes to Zay for 14 yards. Needed 20. Missed FG. 3/5

6:16 - We decide to take a shot down the left sideline. Josh is no where near accurate with Foster in single coverage. Throw is behind and OB left. 3/6

6:11 - Quick out to Mckenzie for 8 yards. 4/7

5:32 - Quick out to Mckenzie for a first down. 5/8

4:15 - Beautiful back shoulder throw to Foster for a big gain. 6/9

2:41 - Josh misses Zay back corner of the end zone. The throw is late and OB. 6/10

1:11 - Josh misses Mckenzie with the under throw. 6/11

1:07 - INT to seal the game. Bad pass. 6/12

 

Summary: 6/12 completed passes; two kinda bad throws (Zay and Mackenzie); one legit bad pass (Foster), one really bad pass (INT). 

 

Game Summary: 18/36 completed passes; 5 kinda bad throws, 4 legit bad throws, 2 really bad throws, and one WOAT throw. 

 

Let's give Josh the five questionable ones. Some of those he was under duress. Basically we're talking about 7 bad to terrible throws out of 36 attempts (almost 20%) which is really high for a QB. It's being masked because he also makes so many positive plays, both running and throwing. It's not about whether he can be accurate or not  - clearly he can be pin point accurate - it's about the high variance between good and bad. I think this analysis helps illustrate that.

 

Can we win consistently with a QB who makes so many bad throws? I don't know, but let's at least all agree there is a problem with his accuracy.      

 

So over 80% of his passes were perfect? NICE!! 

 

Seriously though, buy/draft a top tier o line then let’s see where he is after a full off season. 

 

Im not even as worried about WRs because he been succeeding with guys like Robert Foster.

 

just imagine what a couple top 30 or 40 nfl FA WRs look like in this offense. 

Edited December 11, 2018 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Where is the "beautiful play action fake. Throws over the middle to wipe open Clay, who drops an easy 20-25 yard gain". 

Omitted that play? 

[DuckyBoys]

11 hours ago, VW82 said:

I find it interesting that despite going into painstaking detail about each throw no one who disagrees will say which interpretation they disagree with and why. The whole point of doing this was to talk specifics about Allen instead of generalizations. 

I re-watched every throw three times now.  Right off the bat  I see 6 drops and 2 throw away's  At least two more would be throw away's with the average qb but Josh gets away from heavy pressure to at least attempt a pass late into coverage.  He also attempts several more difficult throws past the stick, some which are completions some are not instead of taking the check down for little or no gain.  He is hurting his stats by trying to make the play for the bigger gain or to get the first down.   Once the O line gets better and they get receivers who can win at least some of the time the offense will look much better.  Right now the kid is trying to make a gourmet meal over a dim fire with a rusty pan and spam and stale bread.

[jrober38]

13 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

 

Go ahead and name the nfl teams that have worse receivers than the Buffalo Bills.   

 

 

 

San Francisco, Arizona and Oakland. 

[Gugny]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

 

Only 7 of The Check Down Master's 36 attempts were greater than 15 yards. 

 

19 of his attempts were 10 yards or less.

 

not exactly what I would call a downfield attack..

 

34 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

2. I never called him a check down master so I’m not sure where that nonsense is coming from

 

It's right there!!

[John from Riverside]

9 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

San Francisco, Arizona and Oakland. 

No No No

[DuckyBoys]

Personally I'd like to see McDermott go 100% into developing Josh as his main focus for the game plan.  Stop play calling like  a mistake ruins the season. Let him throw down field on early downs and let him make the throw when needed to  The stupid Philly special pissed me off  Save that crap for play off games or at least a meaningful game where nothing is working

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, John from Riverside said:

No No No

 

Who do they have that is better than anyone we have? 

[John from Riverside]

16 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

Perhaps the reason for 1800 yds is the fact he only attempted 270 passes. Counter that with Rosen, who had 452 attempts for 3700 yards last year.

 

However, in 2016, Allen had 373 attempts for 3200, while Rosen had 231 attempts for 1900 yds.

 

Funny how that goes...

Thank you for posting this.....I was looking it up to make sure my numbers were straight.....

 

It is not like Allen had no numbers in his college career.......everyone wants to look at that last year where there was NO draftable talent on that team on offense besides him

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

Who do they have that is better than anyone we have? 

Arizona has better and you know it