Charting Allen's throws vs. Jets

[jrober38]

Allen is still the same guy he was at Wyoming in terms of pros and cons. 

 

Huge arm, elite mobility, elite strength and size makes him tough to tackle, but he misses easy throws, forces too many passes into dangerous situations and doesn't complete enough passes. 

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

Here is one take away you can take from all the work put into this thread.  Look at the first Quarter where Allen drove the team down the field with accurate short quick routes (as well as a long run).  He was accurate and had some rhythm.   Then Daboll reverts back to a longer passing tree, and while Allen hits some big gainers, the routes take longer to develop and the line has to block longer.  Bottom line:  you can see where the offensive game plan shift away from quick hitters to longer developing routes - thus a decrease in completion percentage.  If Daboll can stay disciplined in his play calling, Josh's completion percentage will improve dramatically in my opinion.   I understand the temptation with the arm talent Josh has to call a downfield passing game, but the team is not quite built for that yet, and Josh needs to continue to refine his short game.  

Edited December 11, 2018 by Lieutenant Aldo Raine

[WideNine]

44 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

I think you are missing my point.

Yes.  Both Manuel and Allen were drafted with bad problems in their throwing mechanics, and the HOPE we could fix their accuracy problems.  Coming out of college, there were a lot of similarities in that department.

 

As time went along, it became clear that Manuel's problem was too deep rooted to fix.  His throwing motion was already set, and it wasn't something he could re-learn from the ground-up.  In contrast, we are already seeing improvements in Allen that NEVER happened with our last 1st Round QB.  From college, to the Senior Bowl, to training camp/preseason, to Week 2, to now.  There is growth.  Yes, he's still missing lots of throws.  But the GOOD throws are there multiple times each week.  Which tells you he CAN get better.

 

What happens from here is anyone's guess.  Maybe Allen hits a wall. 

But maybe he continues to improve.

 

 

Off topic a bit, but I admit I was for a time a defender of EJ Manuel.

 

It took running into a colleague at work who was friends and had family ties with a bunch of NFL players (mostly Saints) than held an off-season training camp near New Orleans that a few Bills attended. Usually I take with a grain of salt the "I know a guy that knows a guy stuff", but he had the pictures of him hanging with the players and such that lent some credibility and I was able to confirm some of the Bills he mentioned were at the camp - it was enough.

 

Either way, when I was talking football with him and began making excuses for EJ he told me that the Bills players he spoke to said that EJ just did not have it upstairs and could not memorize/execute a playbook no matter how much the coaches dumbed it down, and that even the plays he did get they usually made it so he only had to read one half of the field. They did not think his issues were coachable.

 

It was enough to help me finally fall off the bandwagon - I don't think Allen has those same issues, just not enough NFL-level coaching and experience as he seems to execute Daboll's plays without too much miscommunication or ugly breakdowns like expecting to hand it off and having no one there, or standing like a statue till he is sacked, etc.

 

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

10 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

Allen is still the same guy he was at Wyoming in terms of pros and cons. 

 

Huge arm, elite mobility, elite strength and size makes him tough to tackle, but he misses easy throws, forces too many passes into dangerous situations and doesn't complete enough passes. 

 

...and if you watched any of Wyoming's games, you will notice their offense was a downfield attack - similar to what he is operating in now.  

 

[Bangarang]

37 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Nope. There's a difference between a poor decision and poor accuracy.  Both Allen and Darnold made the same dumb rookie decision to throw back into the middle of the field.  They each threw it right where they wanted to throw it; problem was they had no business making the throw in the first place.

 

Can't be comparing apples and oranges.

 

I honestly can’t believe you’re still trying to make this argument. You do understand that calling a throw that was intercepted accurate and precise is next level stupid right?

 

What are you even talking about with me trying to compare apples to oranges? I’m literally only talking about 1 bad throw Allen made. I’m not comparing him or that throw to anyone else.

[formerlyofCtown]

11 hours ago, GreggTX said:

Unfortunately, Allen's inaccuracy seems to be due to muscle coordination in his arm. He'll never be known as an accurate QB and won't be able to lift a team the way a guy like Brady or Peyton could. If we can put together a strong roster, we can be a playoff team, but I don't see Josh winning any SB's.

Do you even watch football games or do you just look at the stats in the morning paper.

[jrober38]

11 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

...and if you watched any of Wyoming's games, you will notice their offense was a downfield attack - similar to what he is operating in now.  

 

 

Sure.

 

That doesn't change anything I said.

[John from Riverside]

13 hours ago, VW82 said:

Allen did a lot of things on the field yesterday but I want to only look at the throws he attempted so we can better understand what's actually happening, and specifically his propensity for throwing bad passes. For the record, I understand this isn't fair to him. Josh makes plays with his legs, and extends plays other QBs don't. That's all fine and good. This is about what happens when he throws the ball, and trying to better understand the reasons behind his accuracy issues (i.e. is it on him, his receivers, his line, etc.?). 

 

1st quarter:

 

14:48 - quick out to Zay Jones on target (penalty Dawkins) 1/1

14:30 - connects on a nice curl with McKenzie for 18 yards 2/2

12:40 - play action but no one's open. Josh buys time scrambling right and throws it away. 2/3

11:48 - screen to McCoy. Josh throws it a little before he's ready and McCoy drops it. 2/4

11:00 - dump off to Murphy after a blitz on 3rd and 7. First down. 3/5

3:28 - play action dump off to Thomas for 5 yards. 4/6

2:40 - read option, quick out to Zay for 5 yards and a first. 5/7

2:05 - play action quick dump off to Dimarco. Pass was inaccurate and falls incomplete. 5/8

2:00 - quick slant to Clay over the middle for 6 yards. 6/9

1:15 - Allen draws Jets offside with the hard count, takes a shot and misses but draws the flag. 6/9

 

Summary: 6/9 completed passes, only one inaccurate throw and it happened when Allen was under duress.

 

2nd quarter:

 

5:41 - Josh has tons of time but throws over Clay's head incomplete (penalty Jets - as an aside, I watched this play multiple times and Clay doesn't make that catch even if he isn't held. The throw was too high.)

5:36 - quick throw to the left behind the line to McKenzie. The throw is way off but McKenzie makes a great catch and runs for five yards (penalty Foster OPI)

4:57 - The infamous pick for grabs. We all saw it. It might have been Allen's worst throw on the year. 0/1

2:00 - Josh stands in the pocket and delivers a great throw to McKenzie for 19 yards. 1/2

1:35 - Lots of time, eventually Allen gets chased out and throws it away. 1/3

1:27 - Again lots of time. Allen throws over the middle and air mails a wide open McKenzie. Dropped INT by the defender. 1/4

1:21 - Allen takes a huge shot as he throws a great ball to Foster for 15 on a curl. 2/5

1:12 - Josh badly misses a short throw over the middle to Thompson who was wide open. Thompson dove for the ball and almost made an incredible play. 2/6

0:47 - Josh throws a little behind Zay on a crossing route to the left, Zay drops it. He should have caught that one. 2/7

0:36 - quick out to Zay for 4 yards. 3/8

 

Summary: 3/8 completed passes. 2 kinda bad throws (to McKenzie and Clay); 2 legit bad throws (McKenzie and Thompson); 1 WOAT-type throw (INT)

 

3rd quarter:

 

14:07 - Quick throw to the left behind the line to Foster for 2 yards. 1/1

13:34 - Allen leaves the pocket early before there's any pressure, runs toward the pressure, then makes the exact same throw that resulted in the INT in the first half. It lands no where near a Bills receiver though I think it was meant for Zay. 1/2

5:35 - Play action dump off to Ivory. The throw is no where near accurate, forcing Ivory to have to stop his route and come back 180 degrees to make a play. on it, and he almost makes it. 1/3

5:29 - Allen stands in the pocket and delivers a nice ball to Foster along the sideline for a first down. 2/4

4:11 - Allen quick hits McKenzie over the middle. McKenzie makes a nice move for big PAC. 3/5

3:27 - Pass rush quickly forces Josh into scramble mode, and he throws it away. 3/6

 

Summary: 3/6 passes completed; one bad throw (Ivory), one really, really bad throw (Zay).  

 

4th quarter:

 

10:07 - Josh doesn't like what he sees, and so he scampers right to buy time and completes a nice out to Foster for 6 yards. 1/1 (penalty on Jets)

9:42 - Play action roll out. Nice throw on the move to Thompson for a first down. 2/2

9:17 - trick screen play completed to Murphy for 2 yards. (penalty OPI on Foster)

8:51 - Allen is forced to get rid of it early due to pressure and the ball sails on him just OB. 2/3

8:45 - Allen throws a rocket right into Zay chest. We know how that turned out. 2/4

8:40 - Allen is pressured right and completes to Zay for 14 yards. Needed 20. Missed FG. 3/5

6:16 - We decide to take a shot down the left sideline. Josh is no where near accurate with Foster in single coverage. Throw is behind and OB left. 3/6

6:11 - Quick out to Mckenzie for 8 yards. 4/7

5:32 - Quick out to Mckenzie for a first down. 5/8

4:15 - Beautiful back shoulder throw to Foster for a big gain. 6/9

2:41 - Josh misses Zay back corner of the end zone. The throw is late and OB. 6/10

1:11 - Josh misses Mckenzie with the under throw. 6/11

1:07 - INT to seal the game. Bad pass. 6/12

 

Summary: 6/12 completed passes; two kinda bad throws (Zay and Mackenzie); one legit bad pass (Foster), one really bad pass (INT). 

 

Game Summary: 18/36 completed passes; 5 kinda bad throws, 4 legit bad throws, 2 really bad throws, and one WOAT throw. 

 

Let's give Josh the five questionable ones. Some of those he was under duress. Basically we're talking about 7 bad to terrible throws out of 36 attempts (almost 20%) which is really high for a QB. It's being masked because he also makes so many positive plays, both running and throwing. It's not about whether he can be accurate or not  - clearly he can be pin point accurate - it's about the high variance between good and bad. I think this analysis helps illustrate that.

 

Can we win consistently with a QB who makes so many bad throws? I don't know, but let's at least all agree there is a problem with his accuracy.      

While I appreciate the work....and I actually agree that I dont want to put a strong emphasis on his running because QBs have to make plays throwing the ball...I feel that you numbers dont accurately refect how accurate or inaccurate Josh is......

 

I will say that the 3 turnovers he had in this game diminish the good work he actually did on the field......but there are things to consider like how in the first half of this game how many 3rd down completions for 1st down he actually made....

 

This while getting hit on nearly EVERY play.....and literally no running game to help him.

 

But hey....at least he didnt have 2 touchdown passes dropped like the previous game.

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

Sure.

 

That doesn't change anything I said.

Right.  My point is a downfield attack will lend itself to a decreased completion percentage and more dangerous throws.  Allen was on point early with a quick attack and marched right down the field.  Then Daboll began to call a more downfield attack and I don't think the Bills are built for a sustained downfield attack like the Chiefs are for example.

[dakrider]

11 hours ago, GreggTX said:

Unfortunately, Allen's inaccuracy seems to be due to muscle coordination in his arm. He'll never be known as an accurate QB and won't be able to lift a team the way a guy like Brady or Peyton could. If we can put together a strong roster, we can be a playoff team, but I don't see Josh winning any SB's.

pretty amazing you can pick out which Quarterbacks will win SB's!  LOL

10 hours ago, PolishPrince said:

Damn, kid plays 8 games with one of the worst supporting casts I have ever seen and you already decide he wont win any super bowls.

Allen even against Jets looked better than Russell Wilson tonight (he has a superbowl - I also love RW so its not a stab at him)... what about Flacco? Dilfer? Kapernik even went to a super bowl lol. Goff was pretty bad this sunday, will he never win a SB?

The problem is all QB's have misses. A lot of QB's have WR's who will make a great catch for them to bail them out of a crappy throw. I dont know if its because we are so used to seeing Brady or what, but even the good QB's dont hit every throw with 100% accuracy... I just watched the Monday night game. RW3 and Cousins both looked worse than Allen to me (at least this week) - missing reads and inaccurate throws. Both are considered good QB's, both also had their best WR's laying out or making amazing catches to bail out their QB.

 

A lot of people point to Darnold looking so much  better this sunday. Darnold looked good in his last drive - ill give him that for sure. But for some reason we forget Darnold had just as crappy of an INT to Edmunds, and should have thrown a second... but Levi Wallace has been hanging around Zay Jones too much. If Levi Wallace makes that catch, and/or Darnold doesnt run behind our line for 12 seconds to throw a TD, how does the narrative change between Allen and Darnold?

 

If Allen played like that 10-20 with 72 yards, including that terrible interception, he would be getting skewered on here.   

 

Also, did you see that great catch by Vikings Diggs?  It was not a prefect pass by any means but the receiver beat his defender who was draped all over him.  
The Receivers have to make great plays too! 

Edited December 11, 2018 by dakrider

[jrober38]

14 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

Right.  My point is a downfield attack will lend itself to a decreased completion percentage and more dangerous throws.  Allen was on point early with a quick attack and marched right down the field.  Then Daboll began to call a more downfield attack and I don't think the Bills are built for a sustained downfield attack like the Chiefs are for example.

 

I think the low completion percentage is a product of a couple missed dump offs each game. He had 3-4 easy throws on Sunday that his receivers couldn't catch because the ball was poorly thrown. Complete those gimmes and his completion percentage would be above 60%. It's an issue Allen has always had; making the impossible throws but missing a couple gimme throws every game. 

Edited December 11, 2018 by jrober38

[Bangarang]

11 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

Right.  My point is a downfield attack will lend itself to a decreased completion percentage and more dangerous throws.  Allen was on point early with a quick attack and marched right down the field.  Then Daboll began to call a more downfield attack and I don't think the Bills are built for a sustained downfield attack like the Chiefs are for example.

 

Only 7 of Allen’s 36 attempts were greater than 15 yards. 

 

19 of his attempts were 10 yards or less.

 

not exactly what I would call a downfield attack..

[WideNine]

17 hours ago, GreggTX said:

Unfortunately, Allen's inaccuracy seems to be due to muscle coordination in his arm. He'll never be known as an accurate QB and won't be able to lift a team the way a guy like Brady or Peyton could. If we can put together a strong roster, we can be a playoff team, but I don't see Josh winning any SB's.

 

Were you trying to be funny - because this is some funny "expert" s##t - like you stayed at a Holiday Inn the other night kind of expertise.

 

Poor Josh, cannot eat his cereal without missing his mouth with the spoon due to this horrible affliction.

 

 

Edited December 11, 2018 by WideNine

[oldmanfan]

30 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

I honestly can’t believe you’re still trying to make this argument. You do understand that calling a throw that was intercepted accurate and precise is next level stupid right?

 

What are you even talking about with me trying to compare apples to oranges? I’m literally only talking about 1 bad throw Allen made. I’m not comparing him or that throw to anyone else.

You are mixing up accuracy with decision making.  Apples and oranges.  The decision to make the throw was dumb.  Throwing to the area he wanted was accurate.  Accurate but stupid.

 

Take the pick he threw against Miami where he didn't see the guy undercut Benjamin's route.  Very accurate pass, if the guy doesn't undercut it then he hits Benjamin right in stride.  But a poor decision.

 

This isn't that hard to figure out.

5 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I think the low completion percentage is a product of a couple missed dump offs each game. He had 3-4 easy throws on Sunday that his receivers couldn't catch. Complete those gimmes and his completion percentage would be above 60%. It's an issue Allen has always had, making the impossible throws but missing a couple gimme throws every game. 

As I have pointed out more times than I can count to you, the 60% is reached just by guys catching passes that hit them in the hands.  If you believe the 60% standing alone is some harbinger of QB wonderfulness, which it likely is not.

[Bangarang]

4 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

You are mixing up accuracy with decision making.  Apples and oranges.  The decision to make the throw was dumb.  Throwing to the area he wanted was accurate.  Accurate but stupid.

 

Take the pick he threw against Miami where he didn't see the guy undercut Benjamin's route.  Very accurate pass, if the guy doesn't undercut it then he hits Benjamin right in stride.  But a poor decision.

 

This isn't that hard to figure out.

 

Great, so we can pretty much pretend Allen will never have a bad or inaccurate throw ever since we can just assume he threw it exactly where he wanted. What a legend. ?

Edited December 11, 2018 by Bangarang

[LSHMEAB]

20 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

Right.  My point is a downfield attack will lend itself to a decreased completion percentage and more dangerous throws.  Allen was on point early with a quick attack and marched right down the field.  Then Daboll began to call a more downfield attack and I don't think the Bills are built for a sustained downfield attack like the Chiefs are for example.

I keep hearing this argument, but it doesn't really explain his lack of production at Wyoming, especially in 2017.

 

Shouldn't he have put up big time numbers if they ran some kind of greatest show on turf offense?

[jrober38]

7 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

As I have pointed out more times than I can count to you, the 60% is reached just by guys catching passes that hit them in the hands.  If you believe the 60% standing alone is some harbinger of QB wonderfulness, which it likely is not.

 

Why do you continue to ignore that every QB in the NFL has receivers who drop the ball?

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

15 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I keep hearing this argument, but it doesn't really explain his lack of production at Wyoming, especially in 2017.

 

Shouldn't he have put up big time numbers if they ran some kind of greatest show on turf offense?

 

Lack of production????  Apparently you base everything on college stats.  Kid took a dreadful 2-8 team in 2015 to two straight bowl games in 2016 and 2017.  By your standard; Ty Detmer, Andre Ware, and David Klinger should have been NFL Hall of Famers.  

[jrober38]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

As I have pointed out more times than I can count to you, the 60% is reached just by guys catching passes that hit them in the hands.  If you believe the 60% standing alone is some harbinger of QB wonderfulness, which it likely is not.

 

I looked it up, and as usual there's nothing remotely factual about your claim.

 

The Bills pass catchers as a team officially have 15 drops the entire season. 

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, LSHMEAB said:

I keep hearing this argument, but it doesn't really explain his lack of production at Wyoming, especially in 2017.

 

Shouldn't he have put up big time numbers if they ran some kind of greatest show on turf offense?

Not if his targets sucked....which they did