Charting Allen's throws vs. Jets

[Zerovoltz]

3 minutes ago, BillsEnthusiast said:

 

The only reason you post here is to brag about Mahomes

 

I've certainly done that here from time to time.  I post on other issues that aren't even QB related as well.  ....I've not hidden the fact I showed up here after the "trade" because I've wanted to keep my finger on the pulse of the Bills fan base AND see how things developed, including the trades and drafting of your QB, Allen, and how that's been going.  I've also put it out there I think Allen isn't going to develop...not that he couldn't, not that he isn't an incredible athelete...I continue to think it's every bit worth while to get him some better weapons this offseason...see if you can upgrade your line...he has talent...I am skeptical about his ability to ever consistantly be an accurate thrower....and that I think it's a very important attribute....but you get this guy the right mix around him and the right kind of offense...he's totally viable....my last several posts here have been about many fans unwillingness to even acknowledge that the kid has an accuracy issue...and it isn't "just" getting better.  .....and you don't need to hear that or anything else from a Chiefs fan...I get it...  But I'm here and I enjoy the conjecture....and unelss someone kicks me out, I'll keep posting my thought on this and other stuff here.

5 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

I'm not writing off those issues.  I think he'll be similar to Cam Newton in terms of accuracy (between 57 and 61%) throughout his career once we get some better weapons in here with WR's who can get separation and make tough catches.  The scrambling ability and making throws few can make will make us learn to live with his errant throws.

 

This is a good take.

[Teddy KGB]

4 hours ago, VW82 said:

I find it interesting that despite going into painstaking detail about each throw no one who disagrees will say which interpretation they disagree with and why. The whole point of doing this was to talk specifics about Allen instead of generalizations. 

 

Maybe it’s because every post you make is anti Allen and no one can take you seriously. 

[oldmanfan]

I appreciate the effort.  Just went back through myself and count 5 that were way off.  Couple were when he was running for his life and most QBs lose precision under such circumstance.

 

I think we all recognize he needs to develop more touch on shorter routes, which is where most of his misses were.  It would be nice if the critics of the kid also had the decency to recognize that with his arm he can and has made throws that very few other guys can make.

 

It would also be nice if people stopped saying he can never be an accurate QB, never lead them to a championship etc.  because that is nonsense.  No one knows that right now after the kid has played 8 games.

 

 

[ProcessTruster]

What I like about Allen is the throws he can make.   He can make them all.   Such an improvement over TT and the others.   He can make all the throws, even on the run.   His upside is pretty sick if he puts the work in and continues to get coaching and encouragement. 

[Billsfan1972]

The fact you missed the Clay drop pretty much makes the rest invalid.  

 

He made some really nice throws, some bad ones too.  The First INT was terrible and the last pass not very good either.  

 

What I didn't see was him missing any wide open receivers along with throwing some darts.  

 

The first half I remember at least 4 drops on perfect passes and certainly Zay another one in the second half.

 

Add to that very few dump offs or passes behind the line of scrimmage.  Below is the pass chart for all QB's.

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/list/pass

 

I too can blame progressively worse playcalling as the game went on (or better play by the Jets D).

 

 

Edited December 11, 2018 by Billsfan1972

[Gugny]

Cliff's Notes Version:  I think Allen stinks.  You should think he stinks, too.  If you don't think he stinks, then I think you're an idiot.  Here's a list of Allen's passes with completely biased narratives.  

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

5 hours ago, VW82 said:

I find it interesting that despite going into painstaking detail about each throw no one who disagrees will say which interpretation they disagree with and why. The whole point of doing this was to talk specifics about Allen instead of generalizations. 

Because all that analysis will break the internet!  They just got it fixed back up from Ralph!

[oldmanfan]

9 hours ago, VW82 said:

Allen did a lot of things on the field yesterday but I want to only look at the throws he attempted so we can better understand what's actually happening, and specifically his propensity for throwing bad passes. For the record, I understand this isn't fair to him. Josh makes plays with his legs, and extends plays other QBs don't. That's all fine and good. This is about what happens when he throws the ball, and trying to better understand the reasons behind his accuracy issues (i.e. is it on him, his receivers, his line, etc.?). 

 

1st quarter:

 

14:48 - quick out to Zay Jones on target (penalty Dawkins) 1/1

14:30 - connects on a nice curl with McKenzie for 18 yards 2/2

12:40 - play action but no one's open. Josh buys time scrambling right and throws it away. 2/3

11:48 - screen to McCoy. Josh throws it a little before he's ready and McCoy drops it. 2/4

11:00 - dump off to Murphy after a blitz on 3rd and 7. First down. 3/5

3:28 - play action dump off to Thomas for 5 yards. 4/6

2:40 - read option, quick out to Zay for 5 yards and a first. 5/7

2:05 - play action quick dump off to Dimarco. Pass was inaccurate and falls incomplete. 5/8

2:00 - quick slant to Clay over the middle for 6 yards. 6/9

1:15 - Allen draws Jets offside with the hard count, takes a shot and misses but draws the flag. 6/9

 

Summary: 6/9 completed passes, only one inaccurate throw and it happened when Allen was under duress.

 

2nd quarter:

 

5:41 - Josh has tons of time but throws over Clay's head incomplete (penalty Jets - as an aside, I watched this play multiple times and Clay doesn't make that catch even if he isn't held. The throw was too high.)

5:36 - quick throw to the left behind the line to McKenzie. The throw is way off but McKenzie makes a great catch and runs for five yards (penalty Foster OPI)

4:57 - The infamous pick for grabs. We all saw it. It might have been Allen's worst throw on the year. 0/1

2:00 - Josh stands in the pocket and delivers a great throw to McKenzie for 19 yards. 1/2

1:35 - Lots of time, eventually Allen gets chased out and throws it away. 1/3

1:27 - Again lots of time. Allen throws over the middle and air mails a wide open McKenzie. Dropped INT by the defender. 1/4

1:21 - Allen takes a huge shot as he throws a great ball to Foster for 15 on a curl. 2/5

1:12 - Josh badly misses a short throw over the middle to Thompson who was wide open. Thompson dove for the ball and almost made an incredible play. 2/6

0:47 - Josh throws a little behind Zay on a crossing route to the left, Zay drops it. He should have caught that one. 2/7

0:36 - quick out to Zay for 4 yards. 3/8

 

Summary: 3/8 completed passes. 2 kinda bad throws (to McKenzie and Clay); 2 legit bad throws (McKenzie and Thompson); 1 WOAT-type throw (INT)

 

3rd quarter:

 

14:07 - Quick throw to the left behind the line to Foster for 2 yards. 1/1

13:34 - Allen leaves the pocket early before there's any pressure, runs toward the pressure, then makes the exact same throw that resulted in the INT in the first half. It lands no where near a Bills receiver though I think it was meant for Zay. 1/2

5:35 - Play action dump off to Ivory. The throw is no where near accurate, forcing Ivory to have to stop his route and come back 180 degrees to make a play. on it, and he almost makes it. 1/3

5:29 - Allen stands in the pocket and delivers a nice ball to Foster along the sideline for a first down. 2/4

4:11 - Allen quick hits McKenzie over the middle. McKenzie makes a nice move for big PAC. 3/5

3:27 - Pass rush quickly forces Josh into scramble mode, and he throws it away. 3/6

 

Summary: 3/6 passes completed; one bad throw (Ivory), one really, really bad throw (Zay).  

 

4th quarter:

 

10:07 - Josh doesn't like what he sees, and so he scampers right to buy time and completes a nice out to Foster for 6 yards. 1/1 (penalty on Jets)

9:42 - Play action roll out. Nice throw on the move to Thompson for a first down. 2/2

9:17 - trick screen play completed to Murphy for 2 yards. (penalty OPI on Foster)

8:51 - Allen is forced to get rid of it early due to pressure and the ball sails on him just OB. 2/3

8:45 - Allen throws a rocket right into Zay chest. We know how that turned out. 2/4

8:40 - Allen is pressured right and completes to Zay for 14 yards. Needed 20. Missed FG. 3/5

6:16 - We decide to take a shot down the left sideline. Josh is no where near accurate with Foster in single coverage. Throw is behind and OB left. 3/6

6:11 - Quick out to Mckenzie for 8 yards. 4/7

5:32 - Quick out to Mckenzie for a first down. 5/8

4:15 - Beautiful back shoulder throw to Foster for a big gain. 6/9

2:41 - Josh misses Zay back corner of the end zone. The throw is late and OB. 6/10

1:11 - Josh misses Mckenzie with the under throw. 6/11

1:07 - INT to seal the game. Bad pass. 6/12

 

Summary: 6/12 completed passes; two kinda bad throws (Zay and Mackenzie); one legit bad pass (Foster), one really bad pass (INT). 

 

Game Summary: 18/36 completed passes; 5 kinda bad throws, 4 legit bad throws, 2 really bad throws, and one WOAT throw. 

 

Let's give Josh the five questionable ones. Some of those he was under duress. Basically we're talking about 7 bad to terrible throws out of 36 attempts (almost 20%) which is really high for a QB. It's being masked because he also makes so many positive plays, both running and throwing. It's not about whether he can be accurate or not  - clearly he can be pin point accurate - it's about the high variance between good and bad. I think this analysis helps illustrate that.

 

Can we win consistently with a QB who makes so many bad throws? I don't know, but let's at least all agree there is a problem with his accuracy.      

I will focus on the ones you thought were bad:

 

1.  diMarco at 2:05 first quarter.  Allen was running for his life and tried to set up the screen.   Had to throw it over the rushing lineman and thus was a bit high.

2.  Clay at 5:41 second quarter:  Again a bit high, but if Clay is not held he can go up and get it.  Led it away from the defender as he should.

3.  The pick:  Dumb throw, and he knows it.  But accurate, threw it right where he wanted to, again as he's running for his life.

4.  McKenzie at 1:27 second quarter.  Was it to McKenzie or Foster?  Not a great throw.

5.  Thompson at 1:12.  Maybe his biggest miss of the day.  If he leads Thompson correctly there he has open field ahead

6.  Third quarter throwaway at 13:34.  Was dumping the ball to an open spot; better to throw it out of bounds

7.  Third quarter to Ivory at 5:35:  When you hit the guy right in the hands not a terrible throw.  I think everyone gets that these dump offs are an area for improvement

8.  4th quarter 6:16 to Foster:  I see that as an attempt at a back shoulder throw

9.  2:41 to Jones:  ball was right on target, but it was late because again he was running for his life.

10.  1:11 to McKensie:  Not horrible, a little off

12.  Last pick:  Trying to make a play downfield with no timeouts left.  Not worried about that one.

 

So I see maybe 3-4 balls that really weren't targeted well.  I also saw a lot of down field throws that were right on guys and extremely precise.  He needs to work on the dump off type throws, but the kind of talent he shows being able to drive the ball downfield with precision will be a real asset.  It will allow him to fit the ball into tighter windows than other guys. 

 

Now, do we agree about him having a problem with accuracy?  No we don't.   Because as I pointed out earlier this week you confuse accuracy with two other terms:  precision and consistency. 

 

Accuracy vs. precision:  The classic example is throwing darts at a dart board.  Say you consistently are right around the bull's eye, but don't hit it.  That means you are accurate, but not precise.  Now let's say you're aiming at the bull's eye, but you cluster ten darts two inches to the right of the bull's eye; all right on top of each other. You are precise, but you are not accurate.  Allen is accurate on some of the throws above, but he was not precise.  He had it n the catch radius of guys, but could use more precision.  Many Qbs are  like that, but they have WRs that can adjust and make the play anyway.  Allen can be more precise to be sure, most Qbs can, but his receivers could also be helping him out more. 

 

Consistency is being able to make the same pass to a same target with reproducible precision.  Allen like many young QBs will be working on that. 

 

Finally, your last statement belies the intent of your post.  While I appreciate the effort, when you ask whether one can win with a QB that makes "so many bad throws", when it is not clear that he either did so, or that other Qbs in the league would be less so, it is clear you have an agenda.  What you should do is map out some of the younger guys in the league play by play and see how things compare.  I think what you'll find is that this  20% number you have thrown out there as a yardstick with no actual data to back it up might be closer to the norm (and not that I agree that Allen was at 20%, but you get the idea).

 

 

 

 

 

 

[WideRightRevenge]

I'm in the Josh camp . .but do find it interesting the lack of touch on short dump passes ... I hope that's coachable/fixable in the offseason.   That type of outlet pass is critical for long term success at the position.

[Pbomb]

Can a qb consistently throw accurate with such a bad offensive line? Can we all agree our oline is terrible and greatly affects Allen’s play negatively 

[Rochesterfan]

5 hours ago, VW82 said:

 

Fair points. It's possible Allen is more accurate than Darnold (and Rosen for that matter). Those three are all at the bottom of the list in completion percentage.

 

Dilfer played in a different era. Are we really comparing Allen to Flacco or Wilson? Allen's completion percentage this year is 52.4%. Wilson is at 66.6% and has always been in the 60s despite having perennial poor protection. Goff's completion percentage is 64.4%. You don't climb 12-14 percentage points just from better protection and better receivers. It happens because you start throwing more accurately. Goff improved. That doesn't mean Allen will (or won't).

 

So yes, all QBs have misses, and you can probably find a bunch of games that were just like Allen's yesterday in terms of number or percentage of bad throws, but it's tough to find anyone who's made more of them on the year and that's born out in the completion stats. 

 

 

Overall - I disagree with the original take because reviewing the throws several inaccurate throws were throw aways under pressure.  He did have the WTF interception (exactly the same as Darnolds Int by the way - so maybe that is a young QB issue in general).  

 

My biggest issue though is your statement above.  You don’t climb 12 percentage points from better protection and better WRs.  That is patently incorrect.  Goff is a perfect example because what changed between year 1 and year 2 - got a new coach, 3 new o-lineman to give him better protection and 4 new weapons at WR and TE.  The coaching was big, but even bigger is that he saw better protection to read plays and targets that made plays.  Same thing with Chicago bringing in a bunch of FA WRs.

 

To even better disprove the point - just go to Dallas and the Amari Cooper pick-up.  One player to catch passes is the only real change prior to their 11/5 week.  The 7 weeks prior to the trade - his best completion percentage was just over 65% with an average between 62-63%.  He topped out at 270 yards passing with an average of around 200 yards per game.

 

The 6 games since - his completion percentage has skyrocketed to around 72% with one game being above 85%.  His yards per game has also gone way up with last week exceeding 450 yards passing.

 

This is in season - Dak did not suddenly become more accurate- one player - one single player at WR - changed the entire offense and boosted his completion percentage by about 10%.

 

Do I expect Allen to become a 65% completion player - no way, but his current percentage is similar to the other rookies and I expect all of them to jump next season.  He also has one of the top air yards per attempt- so I expect more inconsistent throws due to where he is throwing and the talent.  If after next year we are still having this discussion- then it will be TT all over again, but I think we will see improvement and he will be here for a while.

Edited December 11, 2018 by Rochesterfan

[Pbomb]

Also what about throw aways, these are plays where no one is open and instead of taking a sack or forcing an interception he makes a smart play and gets rid of it. Do these count as “terrible throws”

[Coach Tuesday]

1 hour ago, Teddy KGB said:

 

Maybe it’s because every post you make is anti Allen and no one can take you seriously. 

 

Kind of like you and Tyrod?

[billsfan_34]

10 hours ago, VW82 said:

Allen did a lot of things on the field yesterday but I want to only look at the throws he attempted so we can better understand what's actually happening, and specifically his propensity for throwing bad passes. For the record, I understand this isn't fair to him. Josh makes plays with his legs, and extends plays other QBs don't. That's all fine and good. This is about what happens when he throws the ball, and trying to better understand the reasons behind his accuracy issues (i.e. is it on him, his receivers, his line, etc.?). 

 

1st quarter:

 

14:48 - quick out to Zay Jones on target (penalty Dawkins) 1/1

14:30 - connects on a nice curl with McKenzie for 18 yards 2/2

12:40 - play action but no one's open. Josh buys time scrambling right and throws it away. 2/3

11:48 - screen to McCoy. Josh throws it a little before he's ready and McCoy drops it. 2/4

11:00 - dump off to Murphy after a blitz on 3rd and 7. First down. 3/5

3:28 - play action dump off to Thomas for 5 yards. 4/6

2:40 - read option, quick out to Zay for 5 yards and a first. 5/7

2:05 - play action quick dump off to Dimarco. Pass was inaccurate and falls incomplete. 5/8

2:00 - quick slant to Clay over the middle for 6 yards. 6/9

1:15 - Allen draws Jets offside with the hard count, takes a shot and misses but draws the flag. 6/9

 

Summary: 6/9 completed passes, only one inaccurate throw and it happened when Allen was under duress.

 

2nd quarter:

 

5:41 - Josh has tons of time but throws over Clay's head incomplete (penalty Jets - as an aside, I watched this play multiple times and Clay doesn't make that catch even if he isn't held. The throw was too high.)

5:36 - quick throw to the left behind the line to McKenzie. The throw is way off but McKenzie makes a great catch and runs for five yards (penalty Foster OPI)

4:57 - The infamous pick for grabs. We all saw it. It might have been Allen's worst throw on the year. 0/1

2:00 - Josh stands in the pocket and delivers a great throw to McKenzie for 19 yards. 1/2

1:35 - Lots of time, eventually Allen gets chased out and throws it away. 1/3

1:27 - Again lots of time. Allen throws over the middle and air mails a wide open McKenzie. Dropped INT by the defender. 1/4

1:21 - Allen takes a huge shot as he throws a great ball to Foster for 15 on a curl. 2/5

1:12 - Josh badly misses a short throw over the middle to Thompson who was wide open. Thompson dove for the ball and almost made an incredible play. 2/6

0:47 - Josh throws a little behind Zay on a crossing route to the left, Zay drops it. He should have caught that one. 2/7

0:36 - quick out to Zay for 4 yards. 3/8

 

Summary: 3/8 completed passes. 2 kinda bad throws (to McKenzie and Clay); 2 legit bad throws (McKenzie and Thompson); 1 WOAT-type throw (INT)

 

3rd quarter:

 

14:07 - Quick throw to the left behind the line to Foster for 2 yards. 1/1

13:34 - Allen leaves the pocket early before there's any pressure, runs toward the pressure, then makes the exact same throw that resulted in the INT in the first half. It lands no where near a Bills receiver though I think it was meant for Zay. 1/2

5:35 - Play action dump off to Ivory. The throw is no where near accurate, forcing Ivory to have to stop his route and come back 180 degrees to make a play. on it, and he almost makes it. 1/3

5:29 - Allen stands in the pocket and delivers a nice ball to Foster along the sideline for a first down. 2/4

4:11 - Allen quick hits McKenzie over the middle. McKenzie makes a nice move for big PAC. 3/5

3:27 - Pass rush quickly forces Josh into scramble mode, and he throws it away. 3/6

 

Summary: 3/6 passes completed; one bad throw (Ivory), one really, really bad throw (Zay).  

 

4th quarter:

 

10:07 - Josh doesn't like what he sees, and so he scampers right to buy time and completes a nice out to Foster for 6 yards. 1/1 (penalty on Jets)

9:42 - Play action roll out. Nice throw on the move to Thompson for a first down. 2/2

9:17 - trick screen play completed to Murphy for 2 yards. (penalty OPI on Foster)

8:51 - Allen is forced to get rid of it early due to pressure and the ball sails on him just OB. 2/3

8:45 - Allen throws a rocket right into Zay chest. We know how that turned out. 2/4

8:40 - Allen is pressured right and completes to Zay for 14 yards. Needed 20. Missed FG. 3/5

6:16 - We decide to take a shot down the left sideline. Josh is no where near accurate with Foster in single coverage. Throw is behind and OB left. 3/6

6:11 - Quick out to Mckenzie for 8 yards. 4/7

5:32 - Quick out to Mckenzie for a first down. 5/8

4:15 - Beautiful back shoulder throw to Foster for a big gain. 6/9

2:41 - Josh misses Zay back corner of the end zone. The throw is late and OB. 6/10

1:11 - Josh misses Mckenzie with the under throw. 6/11

1:07 - INT to seal the game. Bad pass. 6/12

 

Summary: 6/12 completed passes; two kinda bad throws (Zay and Mackenzie); one legit bad pass (Foster), one really bad pass (INT). 

 

Game Summary: 18/36 completed passes; 5 kinda bad throws, 4 legit bad throws, 2 really bad throws, and one WOAT throw. 

 

Let's give Josh the five questionable ones. Some of those he was under duress. Basically we're talking about 7 bad to terrible throws out of 36 attempts (almost 20%) which is really high for a QB. It's being masked because he also makes so many positive plays, both running and throwing. It's not about whether he can be accurate or not  - clearly he can be pin point accurate - it's about the high variance between good and bad. I think this analysis helps illustrate that.

 

Can we win consistently with a QB who makes so many bad throws? I don't know, but let's at least all agree there is a problem with his accuracy.      

Denial can be a bad thing- anyone who doesnt see the accuracy issues has their head in the sand. Lets hope we get those corrected along with an OL/WR/RB overhaul. 

15 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

Kind of like you and Tyrod?

If we critique some of Allen’s flaws then were deemed anti. I think we can all agree we want him to succeed and understand this kid has all the tools- he just has some things to work on to be our long term franchise QB.

[Billsfan1972]

The OP as said missed the egregious Clay drop and then in his final assessment didn't acknowledge throwaways or drops. 

 

If I am correct there were 5 perfect passes dropped.

 

Not every throw is right on the money.

 

That alone  disqualifies this thread.

[Big Turk]

6 hours ago, VW82 said:

 

Fair points. It's possible Allen is more accurate than Darnold (and Rosen for that matter). Those three are all at the bottom of the list in completion percentage.

 

Dilfer played in a different era. Are we really comparing Allen to Flacco or Wilson? Allen's completion percentage this year is 52.4%. Wilson is at 66.6% and has always been in the 60s despite having perennial poor protection. Goff's completion percentage is 64.4%. You don't climb 12-14 percentage points just from better protection and better receivers. It happens because you start throwing more accurately. Goff improved. That doesn't mean Allen will (or won't).

 

So yes, all QBs have misses, and you can probably find a bunch of games that were just like Allen's yesterday in terms of number or percentage of bad throws, but it's tough to find anyone who's made more of them on the year and that's born out in the completion stats. 

 

Allen also has the most air yards per pass attempted in the NFL by quite a bit. Deeper average throws mean lower completion percentages. A person throwing a ball 5 yards is going to complete it more than a person throwing it 15 yards. Couple this with 4 or 5 throwaways and 2 or 3 drops we always seem to have on very catchable balls every game and that pretty much results in his 53% completion percentage. Allen doesnt throw a lot of passes so 7 or 8 throwaways/drops are goinf to effect his numbers more than other QBs dropping back 45 times. 

 

Allen rarely throws checkdowns. On some route combinations he doesn't even HAVE checkdowns, his legs are his checkdown by design.  

 

Does he miss on some throws? Of course. All QBs do. Does he miss on an extreme amount of them? My eyes tell me no. In fact I am actually pleasantly surprised at how accurate his throws are most times. He is throwing lasers and hitting dudes right in the numbers many times.

 

When guys are beating coverage and are sitting wide open, its a much easier throw, less contested, more space to fit the ball in, etc. He probably has less of that than any other QB in the league.

 

What I see Allen needing to work on most is his ability to take something off his throws. They don't always need to leave vapor trails. They can sometimes be a little less "hot" coming in...

Edited December 11, 2018 by matter2003

[Teddy KGB]

45 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

Kind of like you and Tyrod?

 

Can’t hate on a man for being right.  

 

 

 

 

[Southern Bills Fan]

12 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

Allen also has the most air yards per pass attempted in the NFL by quite a bit. Deeper average throws mean lower completion percentages. A person throwing a ball 5 yards is going to complete it more than a person throwing it 15 yards. Couple this with 4 or 5 throwaways and 2 or 3 drops we always seem to have on very catchable balls every game and that pretty much results in his 53% completion percentage. Allen doesnt throw a lot of passes so 7 or 8 throwaways/drops are goinf to effect his numbers more than other QBs dropping back 45 times. 

 

Allen rarely throws checkdowns. On some route combinations he doesn't even HAVE checkdowns, his legs are his checkdown by design.  

 

Does he miss on some throws? Of course. All QBs do. Does he miss on an extreme amount of them? My eyes tell me no. In fact I am actually pleasantly surprised at how accurate his throws are most times. He is throwing lasers and hitting dudes right in the numbers many times.

 

When guys are beating coverage and are sitting wide open, its a much easier throw, less contested, more space to fit the ball in, etc. He probably has less of that than any other QB in the league.

 

What I see Allen needing to work on most is his ability to take something off his throws. They don't always need to leave vapor trails. They can sometimes be a little less "hot" coming in...

You beat me to it. I think his propensity to try for the big play and not taking the easy checkdowns will always affect his completion percentage. But remember how we always hated Manuel and Edwards for always checking down?

[Rochesterfan]

59 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

 

Overall - I disagree with the original take because reviewing the throws several inaccurate throws were throw aways under pressure.  He did have the WTF interception (exactly the same as Darnolds Int by the way - so maybe that is a young QB issue in general).  

 

My biggest issue though is your statement above.  You don’t climb 12 percentage points from better protection and better WRs.  That is patently incorrect.  Goff is a perfect example because what changed between year 1 and year 2 - got a new coach, 3 new o-lineman to give him better protection and 4 new weapons at WR and TE.  The coaching was big, but even bigger is that he saw better protection to read plays and targets that made plays.  Same thing with Chicago bringing in a bunch of FA WRs.

 

To even better disprove the point - just go to Dallas and the Amari Cooper pick-up.  One player to catch passes is the only real change prior to their 11/5 week.  The 7 weeks prior to the trade - his best completion percentage was just over 65% with an average between 62-63%.  He topped out at 270 yards passing with an average of around 200 yards per game.

 

The 6 games since - his completion percentage has skyrocketed to around 72% with one game being above 85%.  His yards per game has also gone way up with last week exceeding 450 yards passing.

 

This is in season - Dak did not suddenly become more accurate- one player - one single player at WR - changed the entire offense and boosted his completion percentage by about 10%.

 

Do I expect Allen to become a 65% completion player - no way, but his current percentage is similar to the other rookies and I expect all of them to jump next season.  He also has one of the top air yards per attempt- so I expect more inconsistent throws due to where he is throwing and the talent.  If after next year we are still having this discussion- then it will be TT all over again, but I think we will see improvement and he will be here for a while.

 

 

Sorry to quote myself, but you can also look at Oakland before and after the trade.

 

Carr’s percentage has dropped over 5% in the games without Cooperand his yards passing per game has also decreased with the big change being the loss 1 single WR within the season.

[Bangarang]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

3.  The pick:  Dumb throw, and he knows it.  But accurate, threw it right where he wanted to, again as he's running for his life.

 

Lol wat...

 

It was a horrible decision and throw. Trying to say it was accurate and right where he wanted to put it is stupid. 

Edited December 11, 2018 by Bangarang