Charting Allen's throws vs. Jets

[VW82]

Allen did a lot of things on the field yesterday but I want to only look at the throws he attempted so we can better understand what's actually happening, and specifically his propensity for throwing bad passes. For the record, I understand this isn't fair to him. Josh makes plays with his legs, and extends plays other QBs don't. That's all fine and good. This is about what happens when he throws the ball, and trying to better understand the reasons behind his accuracy issues (i.e. is it on him, his receivers, his line, etc.?). 

 

1st quarter:

 

14:48 - quick out to Zay Jones on target (penalty Dawkins) 1/1

14:30 - connects on a nice curl with McKenzie for 18 yards 2/2

12:40 - play action but no one's open. Josh buys time scrambling right and throws it away. 2/3

11:48 - screen to McCoy. Josh throws it a little before he's ready and McCoy drops it. 2/4

11:00 - dump off to Murphy after a blitz on 3rd and 7. First down. 3/5

3:28 - play action dump off to Thomas for 5 yards. 4/6

2:40 - read option, quick out to Zay for 5 yards and a first. 5/7

2:05 - play action quick dump off to Dimarco. Pass was inaccurate and falls incomplete. 5/8

2:00 - quick slant to Clay over the middle for 6 yards. 6/9

1:15 - Allen draws Jets offside with the hard count, takes a shot and misses but draws the flag. 6/9

 

Summary: 6/9 completed passes, only one inaccurate throw and it happened when Allen was under duress.

 

2nd quarter:

 

5:41 - Josh has tons of time but throws over Clay's head incomplete (penalty Jets - as an aside, I watched this play multiple times and Clay doesn't make that catch even if he isn't held. The throw was too high.)

5:36 - quick throw to the left behind the line to McKenzie. The throw is way off but McKenzie makes a great catch and runs for five yards (penalty Foster OPI)

4:57 - The infamous pick for grabs. We all saw it. It might have been Allen's worst throw on the year. 0/1

2:00 - Josh stands in the pocket and delivers a great throw to McKenzie for 19 yards. 1/2

1:35 - Lots of time, eventually Allen gets chased out and throws it away. 1/3

1:27 - Again lots of time. Allen throws over the middle and air mails a wide open McKenzie. Dropped INT by the defender. 1/4

1:21 - Allen takes a huge shot as he throws a great ball to Foster for 15 on a curl. 2/5

1:12 - Josh badly misses a short throw over the middle to Thompson who was wide open. Thompson dove for the ball and almost made an incredible play. 2/6

0:47 - Josh throws a little behind Zay on a crossing route to the left, Zay drops it. He should have caught that one. 2/7

0:36 - quick out to Zay for 4 yards. 3/8

 

Summary: 3/8 completed passes. 2 kinda bad throws (to McKenzie and Clay); 2 legit bad throws (McKenzie and Thompson); 1 WOAT-type throw (INT)

 

3rd quarter:

 

14:07 - Quick throw to the left behind the line to Foster for 2 yards. 1/1

13:34 - Allen leaves the pocket early before there's any pressure, runs toward the pressure, then makes the exact same throw that resulted in the INT in the first half. It lands no where near a Bills receiver though I think it was meant for Zay. 1/2

5:35 - Play action dump off to Ivory. The throw is no where near accurate, forcing Ivory to have to stop his route and come back 180 degrees to make a play. on it, and he almost makes it. 1/3

5:29 - Allen stands in the pocket and delivers a nice ball to Foster along the sideline for a first down. 2/4

4:11 - Allen quick hits McKenzie over the middle. McKenzie makes a nice move for big PAC. 3/5

3:27 - Pass rush quickly forces Josh into scramble mode, and he throws it away. 3/6

 

Summary: 3/6 passes completed; one bad throw (Ivory), one really, really bad throw (Zay).  

 

4th quarter:

 

10:07 - Josh doesn't like what he sees, and so he scampers right to buy time and completes a nice out to Foster for 6 yards. 1/1 (penalty on Jets)

9:42 - Play action roll out. Nice throw on the move to Thompson for a first down. 2/2

9:17 - trick screen play completed to Murphy for 2 yards. (penalty OPI on Foster)

8:51 - Allen is forced to get rid of it early due to pressure and the ball sails on him just OB. 2/3

8:45 - Allen throws a rocket right into Zay chest. We know how that turned out. 2/4

8:40 - Allen is pressured right and completes to Zay for 14 yards. Needed 20. Missed FG. 3/5

6:16 - We decide to take a shot down the left sideline. Josh is no where near accurate with Foster in single coverage. Throw is behind and OB left. 3/6

6:11 - Quick out to Mckenzie for 8 yards. 4/7

5:32 - Quick out to Mckenzie for a first down. 5/8

4:15 - Beautiful back shoulder throw to Foster for a big gain. 6/9

2:41 - Josh misses Zay back corner of the end zone. The throw is late and OB. 6/10

1:11 - Josh misses Mckenzie with the under throw. 6/11

1:07 - INT to seal the game. Bad pass. 6/12

 

Summary: 6/12 completed passes; two kinda bad throws (Zay and Mackenzie); one legit bad pass (Foster), one really bad pass (INT). 

 

Game Summary: 18/36 completed passes; 5 kinda bad throws, 4 legit bad throws, 2 really bad throws, and one WOAT throw. 

 

Let's give Josh the five questionable ones. Some of those he was under duress. Basically we're talking about 7 bad to terrible throws out of 36 attempts (almost 20%) which is really high for a QB. It's being masked because he also makes so many positive plays, both running and throwing. It's not about whether he can be accurate or not  - clearly he can be pin point accurate - it's about the high variance between good and bad. I think this analysis helps illustrate that.

 

Can we win consistently with a QB who makes so many bad throws? I don't know, but let's at least all agree there is a problem with his accuracy.      

Edited December 11, 2018 by VW82

[billspro]

I disagree with a lot of those takes. 

[BuffaloButt]

Thanks for the breakdown!  I'm optimistic!

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, billspro said:

I disagree with a lot of those takes. 

 

Ditto

[The Bills Blog]

Where is the chart?

[billsfan1959]

1 hour ago, billspro said:

I disagree with a lot of those takes. 

I stopped after “his propensity for throwing bad passes” knowing I would arrive at this same conclusion...

[metzelaars_lives]

Am I crazy (I watched the game at a bar with no sound and they definitely never showed the replay), but didn't Allen have a throw to Clay in the first half that may not have been perfect but he totally should have caught it and there was absolutely no one in front of him and he literally may have scored on the play?

Edited December 11, 2018 by metzelaars_lives

[whatdrought]

This is a good breakdown, but it’s based on your conclusions (which is fine since it’s an opinionated piece) so I take it with a grain of salt.

 

I would love to read your thoughts on the throws while seeing them in video. 

[Big Turk]

How do you know if its a bad throw if you don't know his progressions and what route combinations the receivers are running?  If he throws it to where the receiver was supposed to be but they ran the wrong route, it looks like a terrible throw but it's not on the QB. Also I'm going to bet a few of your terrible throws were intentional throwaways by Allen.

[GreggTX]

Unfortunately, Allen's inaccuracy seems to be due to muscle coordination in his arm. He'll never be known as an accurate QB and won't be able to lift a team the way a guy like Brady or Peyton could. If we can put together a strong roster, we can be a playoff team, but I don't see Josh winning any SB's.

[VW82]

29 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

How do you know if its a bad throw if you don't know his progressions and what route combinations the receivers are running?  If he throws it to where the receiver was supposed to be but they ran the wrong route, it looks like a terrible throw but it's not on the QB. Also I'm going to bet a few of your terrible throws were intentional throwaways by Allen.

 

Great question. I didn't see any obvious miscommunications this week between QB and WR, at least not once the ball was thrown. I get that the tone of the post seems slanted against Allen but I really tried to give him the benefit of the doubt on a bunch of the bad throws (like not including the DiMarco throw for example, which was a straight miss by Josh). If you doubt the work so much go watch the plays. It's why I put the time and quarter in so people could find them and debate if they wanted.  

[PolishPrince]

45 minutes ago, GreggTX said:

Unfortunately, Allen's inaccuracy seems to be due to muscle coordination in his arm. He'll never be known as an accurate QB and won't be able to lift a team the way a guy like Brady or Peyton could. If we can put together a strong roster, we can be a playoff team, but I don't see Josh winning any SB's.

Damn, kid plays 8 games with one of the worst supporting casts I have ever seen and you already decide he wont win any super bowls.

Allen even against Jets looked better than Russell Wilson tonight (he has a superbowl - I also love RW so its not a stab at him)... what about Flacco? Dilfer? Kapernik even went to a super bowl lol. Goff was pretty bad this sunday, will he never win a SB?

19 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

Great question. I didn't see any obvious miscommunications this week between QB and WR, at least not once the ball was thrown. I get that the tone of the post seems slanted against Allen but I really tried to give him the benefit of the doubt on a bunch of the bad throws (like not including the DiMarco throw for example, which was a straight miss by Josh). If you doubt the work so much go watch the plays. It's why I put the time and quarter in so people could find them and debate if they wanted.  

The problem is all QB's have misses. A lot of QB's have WR's who will make a great catch for them to bail them out of a crappy throw. I dont know if its because we are so used to seeing Brady or what, but even the good QB's dont hit every throw with 100% accuracy... I just watched the Monday night game. RW3 and Cousins both looked worse than Allen to me (at least this week) - missing reads and inaccurate throws. Both are considered good QB's, both also had their best WR's laying out or making amazing catches to bail out their QB.

 

A lot of people point to Darnold looking so much  better this sunday. Darnold looked good in his last drive - ill give him that for sure. But for some reason we forget Darnold had just as crappy of an INT to Edmunds, and should have thrown a second... but Levi Wallace has been hanging around Zay Jones too much. If Levi Wallace makes that catch, and/or Darnold doesnt run behind our line for 12 seconds to throw a TD, how does the narrative change between Allen and Darnold?

[transplantbillsfan]

While I thank you for your detailed breakdown, I disagree.

 

Rewatching some of those throws and then looking at your descriptions, you're definitely erring way too much on the terrible.

 

Josh is a rookie. He's a pretty typical 1st round rookie QB. His play resembles that. In fact, it's better than average in many respects and I really don't think it's worse than average for 1st round rookie QBs in pretty much any respect, including accuracy.

 

He's fine now, we just need to see him improve in the offseason, which he's likely to do with his work ethic.

[K-9]

8 kind of bad takes. 13 legit bad takes. 7 really bad takes. And 4 WOAT takes.

[VW82]

I find it interesting that despite going into painstaking detail about each throw no one who disagrees will say which interpretation they disagree with and why. The whole point of doing this was to talk specifics about Allen instead of generalizations. 

[VW82]

1 hour ago, PolishPrince said:

Allen even against Jets looked better than Russell Wilson tonight (he has a superbowl - I also love RW so its not a stab at him)... what about Flacco? Dilfer? Kapernik even went to a super bowl lol. Goff was pretty bad this sunday, will he never win a SB?

The problem is all QB's have misses. A lot of QB's have WR's who will make a great catch for them to bail them out of a crappy throw. I dont know if its because we are so used to seeing Brady or what, but even the good QB's dont hit every throw with 100% accuracy... I just watched the Monday night game. RW3 and Cousins both looked worse than Allen to me (at least this week) - missing reads and inaccurate throws. Both are considered good QB's, both also had their best WR's laying out or making amazing catches to bail out their QB.

 

A lot of people point to Darnold looking so much  better this sunday. Darnold looked good in his last drive - ill give him that for sure. But for some reason we forget Darnold had just as crappy of an INT to Edmunds, and should have thrown a second... but Levi Wallace has been hanging around Zay Jones too much. If Levi Wallace makes that catch, and/or Darnold doesnt run behind our line for 12 seconds to throw a TD, how does the narrative change between Allen and Darnold?

 

Fair points. It's possible Allen is more accurate than Darnold (and Rosen for that matter). Those three are all at the bottom of the list in completion percentage.

 

Dilfer played in a different era. Are we really comparing Allen to Flacco or Wilson? Allen's completion percentage this year is 52.4%. Wilson is at 66.6% and has always been in the 60s despite having perennial poor protection. Goff's completion percentage is 64.4%. You don't climb 12-14 percentage points just from better protection and better receivers. It happens because you start throwing more accurately. Goff improved. That doesn't mean Allen will (or won't).

 

So yes, all QBs have misses, and you can probably find a bunch of games that were just like Allen's yesterday in terms of number or percentage of bad throws, but it's tough to find anyone who's made more of them on the year and that's born out in the completion stats. 

Edited December 11, 2018 by VW82

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

3 minutes ago, VW82 said:

I find it interesting that despite going into painstaking detail about each throw no one who disagrees will say which interpretation they disagree with and why. The whole point of doing this was to talk specifics about Allen instead of generalizations. 

 

Thats how all these homers are. They think any negative comment against Allen, McDermott or Beane is coming from the overreacting kneejerk crowd.

 

When someone actually tries to look at something critically they’re still on autopilot with their “this is a bad thread/post” , “stop whining”  and “another thread about this?!” reactions that offer no counter-argument.

 

Theyll also offer personal insults eventually. Just try not to give in to the temptation to fire back. 

[Zerovoltz]

Zay Jones had his best game as a Bill with Matt Barkley throwing At him 11 targets, 8 catches.  93 yards and a TD.  On the road at the Jets.  Foster had 103 in that game.  Barkley has SEVEN career starts and had just signed the week before.  It’s one game but Barkley completed 15 of 25, right on his career completion pct of 60%.  His passes were not short.  He averaged over 10 YPA.  That isn’t dink and dunk.  

 

I continue to be amazed that so many people keep writing off Allen’s accuracy issues to everything but Allen himself.  

 

By by the way, according to PFF, Allen has more time to throw in the pocket than any QB in the NFL.

 

Barkley played behind the same line.

 

Allen is a serious threat to run and make things happen.  He is fast.  He is a gamer.  He is tough.  He has a strong arm.  He can demonstrate all of this on a field and you can measure all of those with stats or the eye test.

 

He has a well documented, well scouted, well known accuracy issue that you can measure with stats or see with your eyes.

 

some people don’t like math that doesn’t fit what their blurry vision tells them can’t be true. 

[Roundybout]

11 minutes ago, Zerovotlz said:

Zay Jones had his best game as a Bill with Matt Barkley throwing At him 11 targets, 8 catches.  93 yards and a TD.  On the road at the Jets.  Foster had 103 in that game.  Barkley has SEVEN career starts and had just signed the week before.  It’s one game but Barkley completed 15 of 25, right on his career completion pct of 60%.  His passes were not short.  He averaged over 10 YPA.  That isn’t dink and dunk.  

 

I continue to be amazed that so many people keep writing off Allen’s accuracy issues to everything but Allen himself.  

 

By by the way, according to PFF, Allen has more time to throw in the pocket than any QB in the NFL.

 

Barkley played behind the same line.

 

Allen is a serious threat to run and make things happen.  He is fast.  He is a gamer.  He is tough.  He has a strong arm.  He can demonstrate all of this on a field and you can measure all of those with stats or the eye test.

 

He has a well documented, well scouted, well known accuracy issue that you can measure with stats or see with your eyes.

 

some people don’t like math that doesn’t fit what their blurry vision tells them can’t be true. 

 

The only reason you post here is to brag about Mahomes

[Doc Brown]

13 minutes ago, Zerovotlz said:

Zay Jones had his best game as a Bill with Matt Barkley throwing At him 11 targets, 8 catches.  93 yards and a TD.  On the road at the Jets.  Foster had 103 in that game.  Barkley has SEVEN career starts and had just signed the week before.  It’s one game but Barkley completed 15 of 25, right on his career completion pct of 60%.  His passes were not short.  He averaged over 10 YPA.  That isn’t dink and dunk.  

 

I continue to be amazed that so many people keep writing off Allen’s accuracy issues to everything but Allen himself.  

 

By by the way, according to PFF, Allen has more time to throw in the pocket than any QB in the NFL.

 

Barkley played behind the same line.

 

Allen is a serious threat to run and make things happen.  He is fast.  He is a gamer.  He is tough.  He has a strong arm.  He can demonstrate all of this on a field and you can measure all of those with stats or the eye test.

 

He has a well documented, well scouted, well known accuracy issue that you can measure with stats or see with your eyes.

 

some people don’t like math that doesn’t fit what their blurry vision tells them can’t be true. 

I'm not writing off those issues.  I think he'll be similar to Cam Newton in terms of accuracy (between 57 and 61%) throughout his career once we get some better weapons in here with WR's who can get separation and make tough catches.  The scrambling ability and making throws few can make will make us learn to live with his errant throws.