Hapless Bills Fan Posted December 12, 2018 Posted December 12, 2018 6 hours ago, Kemp said: Stats don't lie. His stats in college were eerily similar. Yes, he might get better, but right now he is a bottom 10 starting QB. Has anyone answered my question about why Barkley produced miles better than Alen has so far? Bottom 10 starting QB n.eq.to "utter failure at passing the football" It does equal "rookie, needs to improve to be The Man" I repeat: troll much? 1
transplantbillsfan Posted December 12, 2018 Posted December 12, 2018 On 12/11/2018 at 3:16 AM, Kemp said: I never said he can't run. I said he has been an utter failure so far at passing the football. I have an odd view of evaluating a QB because I want him to be able to throw the ball accurately, make quick decisions, and not turn it over. Take a look at the QBs in Super Bowl history who failed at those three things and won anything. It's not a long list. How many QBs have had successful careers by just gaining yards on the ground? Is there one? For the hundredth time, he might get better because he is a rookie, but his history in college didn't indicate growth, so I remain pessimistic. What he might become is unknown. What he has been is terrible by any measurement. You maintain he has been good in the last 3 weeks. If these are his stats next season you will think he is terrible. Your only valid argument is that we should wait to see how he turns out. To argue he has been good without taking into consideration that he is a rookie is something that even you don't believe. At least one would hope you are grading him on a curve. You simply aren't actually watching Allen play if you keep on throwing out his stats for the argument as to why he's not good. Since you're a steadfast stats guy, there's no way to prove it to you, but Allen has been a SIGNIFICANTLY more accurate passer this season--especially over the last 3 games--than his stats would indicate. It takes two to tango and Allen's doing most of the dancing himself. On 12/11/2018 at 10:38 AM, Kemp said: Raise your hand if you thought Allen was brought here to run the ball. No one ever said that before he played a game. He is supposedly a classic drop-back passer. He runs so often because he takes off out of the pocket way too soon. He often releases the ball too late. A 52.4 completion rate is good? A 62.4 Passer rating is good? 5 TDs and 9 interceptions is good ? Buffalo's defense is number 1 in the NFL in yards given up and the team's record is 4-9. Sure there are other contributing factors, but every single poster here knows without question that your QB is the number one most important player in winning or losing. By the way, I've noticed that none of you can account for the fact that a career 3rd-stringer like Barkley in 1 game performed far better than Allen has in any game. Yeah, it's only one game, but if Allen performed like that some of you would be acclaiming his already being great. Maybe next game or next season Allen will step up as a competent NFL QB , but not so far. Watch the GAMES!!! Allen runs often because our OL absolutely sucks!!! Here's a breakdown of all his runs vs. Miami. https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/12/6/18126838/is-josh-allen-too-quick-to-abandon-pocket-zay-jones-buffalo-bills-dolphins-kiko-alonso-charles-clay Read it, rewatch those plays, and you tell me if this overall conclusion is incorrect: The notion that Allen was taking off early, either to scramble or just to buy time, would seem to be quashed. He wasn’t bailing out of clean pockets and didn’t do so until the very last play. He made good decisions on when to scramble and when to run, and generally did an exceptional job of seeing and sensing pressure. He took two sacks, one of which is bound to happen when the offensive tackle guarding his blind side isn’t very good at his job. Even then, Allen has to trust Dawkins to do a better job than he did in Miami. The other sack, yes, is on Allen. He has to get the ball out when he sees the defensive back coming on a blitz and has a man open to avoid the negative play. There are a few things you can pretty much count on with Allen. First, he’s going to be fun to watch. How long has it been since a Bills quarterback made a two-minute drive look like it was an inevitable touchdown? Second, Allen is going to throw past the line-to-gain on third down. We’re not going to see too many three-yard dump offs on 3rd and 10—which will cause some negative plays (sacks, sack-fumbles, interceptions) even as it gives us hope. Third, plan on Daboll putting the ball in Allen’s hands on third downs. Buffalo has a strong tendency to pass on third downs, even when it is third and less-than-four yards.
transplantbillsfan Posted December 12, 2018 Posted December 12, 2018 17 hours ago, Kemp said: Rushing yards over winning, for a QB. Got it. I like when a QB throws more touchdowns than interceptions and he wins. If that's lame, I'm fine with it. Rushing yards over winning??? Dude, Allen's elusiveness and running is typically the reason our team can even stay on the field and get 1st downs. Do you prefer Allen stay back there and get slaughtered on 3rd downs because our OL and WRs suck? Before Allen's injury, he was the most sacked QB in the NFL and was getting sacked on average about 4 times a game. Over the last 3 games he's only been sacked 4 times and has kept the team on the field several times because of his elusiveness and running for 1st downs. You win by moving your team up and down the field. Allen has been doing that himself largely with the complete and utter absence of a running game and an OL that's been sieve-like and WRs who can't get open half the time and can't catch the damn ball half the time. Watch the games!!!
HappyDays Posted December 12, 2018 Posted December 12, 2018 8 hours ago, Kemp said: We are now bragging about passing for a total of 3 TDs in 3 cherry-picked games against poor competition and for being ranked 20th in that timeframe. How low can this bar go? No one is bragging about our production. I'm saying he has elevated our offense beyond what anyone could reasonably expect based on the supporting cast. We easily have the worst offensive cast in the NFL, I feel comfortable saying that. But we are 12th in yards and 20th in points since Allen returned from injury and he is the only person on offense consistently making plays happen. I'm not cherry picking. I'm using his most recent games because that is a fair sample size and I am more interested in where he is at now. If it makes you feel better 370 total yards per game would rank 12th in the NFL for the whole season and 21.3 PPG would rank 23rd for the whole season. It is about the same. By the end of the season we'll have a bigger sample size to refer back to. If Allen never progresses from where he is now he will not be a franchise QB but the same is true of every other rookie right now. The fact that he has already improved since week 1 makes me think he will continue to progress.
Kemp Posted December 13, 2018 Posted December 13, 2018 On 12/12/2018 at 9:10 AM, oldmanfan said: What can I tell you? You are slavishly devoted to stats that may or may not mean much. You say he's last in release time. You know why? Because he has an Oline that cannot protect him on anywhere near a regular basis and thus he scrambles around more trying to make a play. On the occasions where he gets protection, watch him. He sets up better in the pocket now than he did earlier in the year, he makes his reads, and has delivered the ball pretty accurately overall. Yes he misses a few, as do all young QBs. His TD/Int ratio? He has to know not to throw the ball back into the middle of the filed when scrambling, that accounts for a couple. And it would be great if his receivers would actually catch the ball when thrown to them. You fall into the trap so many fall into. You look at stats as a be all and end all and don't really think about all the variables that can go into said statistic. Again, I listed a bunch in another thread, but here's one more to think about. Who is actually doing the analysis? Do they know enough about football to make an intelligent assessment. Do they have an agenda against a player that skews their perspective? I'll give you an example we saw on this board this week, courtesy of the rober guy who clearly has an anti- Allen agenda. It involved the dropped pass by Clay over the middle. He claimed it was a bad throw by Allen, not a problem with Clay. He started out by erroneously talking about how Clay was running a post and how the ball should have been over his shoulder. He wasn't; he was slanting across the field. He then erroneously talked about how you knew it was a post because the ball hit him on the 39 and he stumbled on the 44 yard line. Not even close to being right; the ball hit him on the hands on the 42 and he fell between the 43 and 44 (again, because the pattern was a slant and not a post). The it was the ball was at his feet, and when several people pointed out the fallacy of that then he claimed it was below the waist. The reality, as indicated by many, was the ball was right out in front of him, waist high, nice accurate and precise throw, which Clay dropped, and then held his hands to his head as if to say How could I have dropped that ball? Now, that is one play. Imagine if you have guys who don't really know that much about what they're seeing doing that for every play around the league, and you start to get why I am not a huge fan of some of the stats thrown around. Allen is a work in progress. He has a lot to learn. So do all the young QBs. Allen needs to continue to have the game slow down for him, although one can see that it is starting. As the game slows down he should make quicker and better decisions with his throws. He needs to continue working on mechanics, especially on passes that require more touch than velocity. But based on his 8 games to date, he also brings some skills to the table that seem fairly unique. His arm will allow for more open routes downfield because he should be able to fit passes into tighter windows with his velocity. You pooh pooh his running but that is a nice weapon to have, and opens up the field for the passing game. He has the intangibles one looks for in a QB such as leadership and work ethic. His teammates believe in him. Does that all mean he's the QB for the next 15 years? Too early to tll, but my gut says yes. Could eb worng of course. But it won't be because he doesn't give it everything he has to be the guy. And it won't be because fans who have an agenda and say he's an utter failure as a thrower. Bad protection makes him hold the ball longer? My agenda is that he is not performing well in the passing dept. I have already said he might get better. You think external factors hurt him, now, and in college. Maybe you are right. Maybe not. If you are right, he should be much better next season and my guess will be wrong. Right?
oldmanfan Posted December 13, 2018 Posted December 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, Kemp said: Bad protection makes him hold the ball longer? My agenda is that he is not performing well in the passing dept. I have already said he might get better. You think external factors hurt him, now, and in college. Maybe you are right. Maybe not. If you are right, he should be much better next season and my guess will be wrong. Right? Yes that would be right. You think rookie QBs should be finished products. They're not.
Kemp Posted December 13, 2018 Posted December 13, 2018 On 12/12/2018 at 9:21 AM, Stank_Nasty said: he's referencing his overall numbers over 3 games and the % of the offense he's accounting for. they happen to be the last 3 games since his injury. you may not understand this but he had time to sit and develop a bit more so the 2nd half the season has been a little more crucial and telling than the first half.....you are obviously hung up on one certain aspect of his game that needs work and cant understand or comprehend anyone bringing up other aspects that are phenomenal or the context in which he's doing it. I think its fairly evident what the majority around here thinks of you. have a nice day. he didn't. you have serious issues understanding all aspects of the game and you may want to consider watching something else if you cant grasp anything more than raw passing stats. Imagine judging a QB by his passing stats and results. It's clear that your feelings are way more important. I don't care what you think of my intellect. It should be clear by now that insulting me is pointless. If you care what strangers think about you, you have bigger self-worth problems that you might want to look into. You believe Allen is performing well. I disagree. That this difference of opinion drives you nuts is pretty funny. 18 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Bottom 10 starting QB n.eq.to "utter failure at passing the football" It does equal "rookie, needs to improve to be The Man" I repeat: troll much? He has been a great runner and a terrible passer. Absorb much?
Kemp Posted December 13, 2018 Posted December 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: Yes that would be right. You think rookie QBs should be finished products. They're not. I never said he should be a finished product, yet. I am saying the negatives we heard about in college are the same negatives, now. Maybe they will disappear. Maybe they won't. My guess is they won't. This thought drives some here off the edge of a cliff, foaming at the mouth. Then they insult me and they think this will bother me, I suppose. His decision-making and accuracy is poor. Until both those change, there is a problem. 1
oldmanfan Posted December 13, 2018 Posted December 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, Kemp said: Imagine judging a QB by his passing stats and results. It's clear that your feelings are way more important. I don't care what you think of my intellect. It should be clear by now that insulting me is pointless. If you care what strangers think about you, you have bigger self-worth problems that you might want to look into. You believe Allen is performing well. I disagree. That this difference of opinion drives you nuts is pretty funny. He has been a great runner and a terrible passer. Absorb much? He is not a terrible passer. As I said before you are addicted to stats that don't tell an entire story. And you do so to fit your preconceived bias. People like you want to see him fail so you can brag on an Internet site about how smart you are. 1 minute ago, Kemp said: I never said he should be a finished product, yet. I am saying the negatives we heard about in college are the same negatives, now. Maybe they will disappear. Maybe they won't. My guess is they won't. This thought drives some here off the edge of a cliff, foaming at the mouth. Then they insult me and they think this will bother me, I suppose. His decision-making and accuracy is poor. Until both those change, there is a problem. Refer back to a number of comments I've made about accuracy. You don't understand the meaning of the word.
Kemp Posted December 13, 2018 Posted December 13, 2018 1 minute ago, oldmanfan said: He is not a terrible passer. As I said before you are addicted to stats that don't tell an entire story. And you do so to fit your preconceived bias. People like you want to see him fail so you can brag on an Internet site about how smart you are. I want him to succeed because all these years of failure are annoying. I have no desire to be right and the team fails. It's just my opinion that he is a bad thinker in the passing game. Do you really believe that if Allen brings a Super Bowl I will be upset? The only negative part of this stuff is some here calling me an idiot for my opinion. To me, if you disagree, fine. To act like an ahole about it just makes me think that poster is probably not bright nor nice. In any case, it won't make me change my opinion of Allen. Only a huge uptick in performance will change my opinion of him. 13 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: He is not a terrible passer. As I said before you are addicted to stats that don't tell an entire story. And you do so to fit your preconceived bias. People like you want to see him fail so you can brag on an Internet site about how smart you are. Refer back to a number of comments I've made about accuracy. You don't understand the meaning of the word. There are external factors that affect accuracy, but when you consistently put up poor completion percentages, perhaps you have a lot of the responsibility. 16 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: He is not a terrible passer. As I said before you are addicted to stats that don't tell an entire story. And you do so to fit your preconceived bias. People like you want to see him fail so you can brag on an Internet site about how smart you are. Refer back to a number of comments I've made about accuracy. You don't understand the meaning of the word. There are external factors that affect accuracy, but when you consistently put up poor completion percentages, perhaps you have a lot of the responsibility. Why is that unreasonable to you?
Hapless Bills Fan Posted December 13, 2018 Posted December 13, 2018 31 minutes ago, Kemp said: He has been a great runner and a terrible passer. Absorb much? I put it out there up-thread what I see in Allen's passing. I would say, judging by your reiteration ("utter failure at passing the football" "terrible passer"), you might be the one with the absorption issue, in the sense of not being able to absorb and react to a challenge to your point of view except by reiterating it. I'll reiterate my viewpoint: I don't really think there are too many people here who would disagree that Allen must progress and improve to be the franchise QB we all hope he becomes. I also don't think there are many people who have actually watched him play who would say "utter failure at passing the football" is an apt description of what we've seen so far. And I'll add: In some ways, that situation is harder to deal with than actual "utter failure passing the football" would be. When you have a guy like Allen is right now, where he can make 2-4 throws a game that spin your head around with how good they are, a couple more that look good but get dropped, but then another bunch of throws that are not on point, it's more difficult to know whether/when to pull the plug. Hopefully he'll improve and it will be a moot point. But if he doesn't, it's not the "utter failure at passing the football" it's the "occasional blinding success at passing the football" that will make this problematic.
oldmanfan Posted December 13, 2018 Posted December 13, 2018 47 minutes ago, Kemp said: I want him to succeed because all these years of failure are annoying. I have no desire to be right and the team fails. It's just my opinion that he is a bad thinker in the passing game. Do you really believe that if Allen brings a Super Bowl I will be upset? The only negative part of this stuff is some here calling me an idiot for my opinion. To me, if you disagree, fine. To act like an ahole about it just makes me think that poster is probably not bright nor nice. In any case, it won't make me change my opinion of Allen. Only a huge uptick in performance will change my opinion of him. There are external factors that affect accuracy, but when you consistently put up poor completion percentages, perhaps you have a lot of the responsibility. There are external factors that affect accuracy, but when you consistently put up poor completion percentages, perhaps you have a lot of the responsibility. Why is that unreasonable to you? It is unreasonable because you have to factor in a plethora of variables that affect the equation. Looking at the offense in Wyoming and thus far in Buffalo he does not have the simple little check downs and such that can inflate percentage completions, as just one variable. He has things to learn, like some more touch on passes as an example. Read what Hapless wrote and what I wrote; we are objective and realize he has things to learn, pluses and minuses. You on the other hand come out with statements such as he is an "utter failure" and then try to walk that back. You ask if I really think you'd be disappointed if Allen led them to a Super Bowl.. Sadly, I think that's quite possible. There are others on this site that I definitively think would be sad, and I hope that's not the case with you.
Virgil Posted December 13, 2018 Author Posted December 13, 2018 1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I put it out there up-thread what I see in Allen's passing. I would say, judging by your reiteration ("utter failure at passing the football" "terrible passer"), you might be the one with the absorption issue, in the sense of not being able to absorb and react to a challenge to your point of view except by reiterating it. I'll reiterate my viewpoint: I don't really think there are too many people here who would disagree that Allen must progress and improve to be the franchise QB we all hope he becomes. I also don't think there are many people who have actually watched him play who would say "utter failure at passing the football" is an apt description of what we've seen so far. And I'll add: In some ways, that situation is harder to deal with than actual "utter failure passing the football" would be. When you have a guy like Allen is right now, where he can make 2-4 throws a game that spin your head around with how good they are, a couple more that look good but get dropped, but then another bunch of throws that are not on point, it's more difficult to know whether/when to pull the plug. Hopefully he'll improve and it will be a moot point. But if he doesn't, it's not the "utter failure at passing the football" it's the "occasional blinding success at passing the football" that will make this problematic. Lock this thread please
Kemp Posted December 13, 2018 Posted December 13, 2018 53 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: It is unreasonable because you have to factor in a plethora of variables that affect the equation. Looking at the offense in Wyoming and thus far in Buffalo he does not have the simple little check downs and such that can inflate percentage completions, as just one variable. He has things to learn, like some more touch on passes as an example. Read what Hapless wrote and what I wrote; we are objective and realize he has things to learn, pluses and minuses. You on the other hand come out with statements such as he is an "utter failure" and then try to walk that back. You ask if I really think you'd be disappointed if Allen led them to a Super Bowl.. Sadly, I think that's quite possible. There are others on this site that I definitively think would be sad, and I hope that's not the case with you. You are entitled yo your opinion. Am I entitled to mine?
oldmanfan Posted December 13, 2018 Posted December 13, 2018 22 minutes ago, Kemp said: You are entitled yo your opinion. Am I entitled to mine? Sure . But when you make purposely inflammatory statements like calling someone an utter failure expect to be challenged. And when you don't really understand stats take advantage of posts from others with a bit more insight and try and learn something.
Kemp Posted December 13, 2018 Posted December 13, 2018 10 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: Sure . But when you make purposely inflammatory statements like calling someone an utter failure expect to be challenged. And when you don't really understand stats take advantage of posts from others with a bit more insight and try and learn something. It's difficult to garner insight from someone who believes a terrible pass completion percentage isn't terrible and that throwing many more picks than TDs isn't terrible. The only valid argument is guilty with the excuse of inexperience which could at least turn put to be valid. If these were the stats of a QB who wasn't a rookie, wouldn't you think the QB was doing terribly? Without that proviso, the view that his throwing hasn't been terrible, to me, makes no sense. Aside from insulting me, can you disagree with what I just wrote?
oldmanfan Posted December 13, 2018 Posted December 13, 2018 31 minutes ago, Kemp said: It's difficult to garner insight from someone who believes a terrible pass completion percentage isn't terrible and that throwing many more picks than TDs isn't terrible. The only valid argument is guilty with the excuse of inexperience which could at least turn put to be valid. If these were the stats of a QB who wasn't a rookie, wouldn't you think the QB was doing terribly? Without that proviso, the view that his throwing hasn't been terrible, to me, makes no sense. Aside from insulting me, can you disagree with what I just wrote? If they were Rogers stats sure because he has more experience, and because his offense is designed differently. But that's assuming he didn't have as many drops or throwaways. You refuse to understand the complexity of statistics so this becomes pointless. And that is not an insult, that is just reality.
dave mcbride Posted December 13, 2018 Posted December 13, 2018 (edited) 19 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: If they were Rogers stats sure because he has more experience, and because his offense is designed differently. But that's assuming he didn't have as many drops or throwaways. You refuse to understand the complexity of statistics so this becomes pointless. And that is not an insult, that is just reality. One way to square the circle on this is to view his play in full: He basically had 48 "touches" - 36 throws, 9 runs, 3 sacks - and generated 293 yards (6.1 yards per play). He had a couple of bad picks plus a bad ball-security fumble, but when anyone handles it that much, you should expect two turnovers (three is probably one too many). He only generated one TD, and I think the baseline with that many touches should be 2. Anyway, not great, but certainly not horrible. It's average-level NFL play (OK, but not good enough). Edited December 13, 2018 by dave mcbride
ctk232 Posted December 13, 2018 Posted December 13, 2018 (edited) On 12/9/2018 at 2:47 PM, Virgil said: 2 - Offensive Line - This was probably one of the worst weeks for the offensive line in a while. There was absolutely zero room for the running backs. Allen was under pressure a lot, even though it was from the spy blitz not allowing Allen to execute a full play-action pass. But overall, it's tough for any quarterback to look downfield when under almost constant pressure. I thought the line was doing a lot better recently and I know we had some injuries, but we were getting schooled well before that. Mills in particular whiffed on defenders quite a bit. 3 - Frazier - When up against a rookie qb who's prone to throwing interceptions, how do you not constantly pressure him in to making poor throws? While holding them to 13 points through 3 quarters was a strong effort, and would have been less if not for special teams, the exotic blitzes we've seen the past few weeks went away. Also, how many short yardages runs did we give up on obvious rushing situations? Didn't we spend a ton of money on guys to prevent that from happening? I'm sure there was a gameplan for the Jets and you can argue it's success, minus some last minute heroics, but the lack of pressure today was a problem. 7 - Daboll - For the most part, I'm liking Daboll more and more each week; and I was big on the "fire Daboll" train. He called some good plays to create some form of respect for our rushing attack. He got guys open past the sticks and gave Allen some targets. Overall, execution was the real killer in today's game as well as lack of offensive line support. The biggest difference between this Jets game and the previous was the lack of deep threat. It's hard when watching on TV to know what's available downfield, but the lack of downfield attack coupled with lack of rushing attack made it a lot easier for the Jets defense to focus on the middle of the field. Also, not sure if the trick play with Zay and Allen on 3rd and 3 was the right time for that call. Go Bills! Appreciate the write up as always! Re: 2 and 7 - I really want to know how much input and impact Castillo has on the run game, as he supposedly is the run game coordinator. Something he completely flopped as in both Philly and Baltimore. If you want to see immediate results in all aspects of our offense, the OL and coaching staff behind it need an overhaul. Beyond his work in the run game, I can't seem to understand the blocking techniques we use for certain passing downs in congruence with the play call. I've been beyond done with seeing our OL flop on cut blocks, but to see a cut block on a PAP? I have a hard time understanding that one. I really do think that a good amount of our struggles in the run game have been due to Castillo, as have our issues at Center, and the right side of the line. I was skeptical on Daboll and I'm still sticking to reserving judgment on him until next year. My initial concerns were only held back by the sheer uncertainty surrounding what was actually going on with our offense. While the bungled QB situation likely hurt our ability to fully judge Daboll's offense, the overall talent of the roster left very little efficacious data to fully evaluate Daboll. In the games where he's had Allen as his QB, I've enjoyed the schemes he's created to maximize the strengths of Allen - you're seeing vertical routes to combine with his threat of scrambling, which is a complete nightmare to counter. He's developed concepts within the PAP and jet sweep packages to both help Allen with his pre-snap reads, and provide a familiar foundation for him to develop and build upon. The playbook he is running seems to be limited by the current talent of the roster, though I do think he is prone to overthink his concepts in certain plays. However, I do believe that when we start to see our offense get filled out, especially along the OL, we'll start to see the modern playbook we've been dying to see. Re: 3 and Frazier - the Jets kept an extra blocker in on most passing downs to help protect sammy. I would have liked to have seen more blitzes in response, as Sammy has shown he has equal issue with pressured throws considering his league leading INTs, even while being out for three weeks...the game plan was to generate pressure with our pass rush, but we couldn't generate any pressure to affect sammy's throws. Officiating and ST woes aside, we should have been able to generate more pressure on passing downs. Edited December 13, 2018 by ctk232
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted December 14, 2018 Posted December 14, 2018 Does anyone recall the distance on the 3rd and short QB sneak conversion early in the game? The one that Allen picked up like five yards on and nearly broke for 30+ yards. I remember thinking it was 3rd and 1.5 yards or so and thinking it was unbelievable that a team could so easily convert a QB sneak from that distance let alone even attempt it from more than a yard out. It's just another sign of how gifted this kid is. I feel like Allen is 4/4 or 5/5 on QB sneak plays so far in his early career. And not all of them have been inches to go situations. It is nice to have a weapon like that. Brady has been converting those at a high percentage for years.
Recommended Posts