A Few Thoughts About the Jets Game, in no particular order

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

If he can get above 60% and still complete passes in big chunks then he will last a long time in the NFL. So far this season he is at almost exactly 12 yards per completion. That would put our offense at 5th in the league in that stat, behind the Chiefs, Rams, Buccaneers, and Chargers

He is never going to be a precise passer, but his other elite traits can make up for it. Like any other QB the offense needs to be built around his skill set so we need receivers with a big catch radius. He can throw the ball to any level on the field but the receivers might need to adjust to the ball a little. That's the trade off you're accepting with him.

 

We should also keep in mind he was expected to be raw and he was drafted for what he'll be a year or two from now. If he can learn to read a defense consistently I think he will be great even with inconsistent ball placement because of his other skills.

 

I think there's a reason why no one uses yards per completion when looking at QBs because you're discarding all of the incompletions. 

 

YPA is a better barometer for how efficient a QB can be. I get that Allen is capable of big plays, as most of his best throws are when he can drive the football and try to throw it through a brick wall, but his completion percentage holds everything back.

 

6.4 YPA is 33rd best in the NFL this year, and the result of a low YPA combined with a high YPC is a feast or famine offense.

 

The first half we have 230 yards and 17 points. 

 

The second half we have 130 and score 6 points, with 3 of them coming off a fumbled kick off. 

 

This game was the opposite of the game against Miami when we were inept in the 1st half and really good in the 2nd half. 

 

The issue I have, and have always had with guys like Allen is that they struggle to put together a full 4 quarters of good football. They run hot and cold and if they get cold at the wrong time you usually wind up losing the game. 

[oldmanfan]

58 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

In all seriousness I don't remembering him making any. Most of his better passes were bullets off play action. 

Screen to Murphy to help them get a TD in the first drive.  But of course you don't remember that.

 

I also just went back and looked at the play to Clay.  He is coming across the field.  You don't throw over the shoulder on that pattern, you put it in front of him so he can catch in stride.  Which is where the pass was.  At waist level, not anywhere near below.  And he dropped it.  Then Clay held his hands to his head as if to say how could I have dropped that ball?  

 

You continue to express yourself as some some expert on QB play when the reality is, let's just say, not.

[HappyDays]

3 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

2) He has a lot of half field reads where he rolls out to one side and is expected to throw it away if nothing is open. At least 4 or 5 throws a game are throwaways...most other QBs have 1 or 2...

 

There's a reason Rosen, Darnold, and Allen are at the bottom of the pack in completion percentage and Mayfield is just 22nd. Rookies are given simpler offenses where like you said throwaways are more common. They are also learning what they can get away with against NFL defenses. In Allen's case he is running for 10+ yards at a time instead of taking easy check downs. Same or better result but it doesn't show up in his stats. Three straight weeks of 250+ total yards and 300+ total yards the past 2 weeks. That isn't an accident. And he's doing it with a cast of nobodies. He is missing some throws that the best QBs would never miss but he is also making plays with his arm and his legs that only a couple QBs in the league can make, and he's making them every single week. I have to think once we get a more reliable offense around him that production will start turning into points.

[NoHuddleKelly12]

Thanks for posting some great post-game thoughts Virgil, can’t really find much to disagree with this week. I remain very positive as to JA’s development and know he will learn from his mistakes today and build off what he did well. Go Bills!!!!!

[jrober38]

4 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Screen to Murphy to help them get a TD in the first drive.  But of course you don't remember that.

 

I also just went back and looked at the play to Clay.  He is coming across the field.  You don't throw over the shoulder on that pattern, you put it in front of him so he can catch in stride.  Which is where the pass was.  At waist level, not anywhere near below.  And he dropped it.  Then Clay held his hands to his head as if to say how could I have dropped that ball?  

 

You continue to express yourself as some some expert on QB play when the reality is, let's just say, not.

 

Actually he's running a post. 

 

Note that he touches the ball at the 39 yard line and falls down around the 44 yard line, ie he's going up the field. 

 

The throw needs to be dropped in the bucket for a big gain. It's easy pitch and catch. 

[oldmanfan]

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

Actually he's running a post. 

 

Note that he touches the ball at the 39 yard line and falls down around the 44 yard line, ie he's going up the field. 

 

The throw needs to be dropped in the bucket for a big gain. It's easy pitch and catch. 

Actually he's angling across the field, the ball is thrown right in front of him in stride and he dropped it.  You don't know what you're looking at.  He was not going straight downfield.

[Big Turk]

3 hours ago, PearlHowardman said:

 

Get used to it!  This will be Josh Allen his entire NFL career.

 

 

How many of these were there? 2? Not like any other QB ever overthrow his receiver...

5 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Actually he's running a post. 

 

Note that he touches the ball at the 39 yard line and falls down around the 44 yard line, ie he's going up the field. 

 

The throw needs to be dropped in the bucket for a big gain. It's easy pitch and catch. 

 

Dude let me tell you something. I played many years of pick up football and street football.

 

If that throw was made in one of those games and you dropped it dudes were gonna be looking at you and rolling their eyes and shaking their heads LET ALONE at the NFL level...

 

There really is no excuse for him to be dropping that ball. Just like there was really no excuse for it last week at the end of the game.

[HappyDays]

7 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I think there's a reason why no one uses yards per completion when looking at QBs because you're discarding all of the incompletions. 

 

YPA is a better barometer for how efficient a QB can be. I get that Allen is capable of big plays, as most of his best throws are when he can drive the football and try to throw it through a brick wall, but his completion percentage holds everything back.

 

I don't disagree with that. If his completion percentage stays around 53% he won't last for long. If he can get above 60% and keep the same pace of yards per completion we will have a very good offense. The 20th best completion percentage with the 4th best yards per completion would naturally have a high YPA. My point is the completion percentage isn't exclusively based around accuracy. His accuracy might be the difference between 62% and 65%, and I can live with that. But a bunch of other factors are bringing it down a lot more. 4 more completions today would have put him above 60% and I counted at least 5 drops that hit the receiver in the hands. That's where someone might say every QB deals with drops but I don't see any other offense in the league dealing it with on the same level. Maybe the Cardinals. Did any Jets drop a pass today? I think I remember one drop from them.

[oldmanfan]

8 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Actually he's running a post. 

 

Note that he touches the ball at the 39 yard line and falls down around the 44 yard line, ie he's going up the field. 

 

The throw needs to be dropped in the bucket for a big gain. It's easy pitch and catch. 

Just looked at it again.  Ball hit him inside the right hash on the 41.  He dropped it on the 42 and tripped just outside the left hash on the 43.

 

When a play takes you from the right hash to the left hash within two yards that is what geometryteachers refer to as horizontal vs. vertical as in a post pattern.  And the bucket would be the hands of the receiver.  Which, to reiterate, were hit.  And to reiterate further he dropped.

[jrober38]

8 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Just looked at it again.  Ball hit him inside the right hash on the 41.  He dropped it on the 42 and tripped just outside the left hash on the 43.

 

When a play takes you from the right hash to the left hash within two yards that is what geometryteachers refer to as horizontal vs. vertical as in a post pattern.  And the bucket would be the hands of the receiver.  Which, to reiterate, were hit.  And to reiterate further he dropped.

 

I've never suggested his hands weren't hit or that it was a drop.

 

I'm just pointing out it was a really poorly thrown pass that needed more air under it so his receiver could run after the catch. 

 

Allen has struggled with these type of passes all year. There was one against the Texans that could very well have been the same play and Allen threw it into Clay's feet. 

 

Unless Allen is throwing it as hard as he can, his accuracy has been inconsistent all year. 

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

I've never suggested his hands weren't hit or that it was a drop.

 

I'm just pointing out it was a really poorly thrown pass that needed more air under it so his receiver could run after the catch. 

 

Allen has struggled with these type of passes all year. There was one against the Texans that could very well have been the same play and Allen threw it into Clay's feet. 

 

Unless Allen is throwing it as hard as he can, his accuracy has been inconsistent all year. 

Again, you can have your opinion but the video shows otherwise and several folks who have looked at it tell you the same thing.  You refuse to accept it because you have this self aggrandizing image of yourself as a QB expert, and because you don't like Allen and would rather see him fail so you can talk about how you were right.  It is clear to all.  As clear as the fact that he hit Clay in stride on this pass and Clay would still be running if he could catch a football.

 

oh, and the throw against the Texans was a bad throw.  Not anything like the one today.

[Peace Frog]

The game, in a nutshell:  our O-line, a turnstile.  Their O-line, a wall.  There's your game.

[jrober38]

 

11 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

The game, in a nutshell:  our O-line, a turnstile.  Their O-line, a wall.  There's your game.

 

 

Don't forget our special teams.

Edited December 10, 2018 by jrober38

[fansince88]

One thing I noticed at the game today is Dabol didnt run the deep threat deep pass all day. Yes there were some come back throws but no over the shoulder routes run. That had me scratching my head.

[CSBill]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

I think there's a reason why no one uses yards per completion when looking at QBs because you're discarding all of the incompletions. 

 

YPA is a better barometer for how efficient a QB can be. I get that Allen is capable of big plays, as most of his best throws are when he can drive the football and try to throw it through a brick wall, but his completion percentage holds everything back.

 

6.4 YPA is 33rd best in the NFL this year, and the result of a low YPA combined with a high YPC is a feast or famine offense.

 

The first half we have 230 yards and 17 points. 

 

The second half we have 130 and score 6 points, with 3 of them coming off a fumbled kick off. 

 

This game was the opposite of the game against Miami when we were inept in the 1st half and really good in the 2nd half. 

 

The issue I have, and have always had with guys like Allen is that they struggle to put together a full 4 quarters of good football. They run hot and cold and if they get cold at the wrong time you usually wind up losing the game. 

 

You realize you're talking about a rookie here right, what does he have now, 9 games?

[Tyrion]

Wow. this is a very, very bad thread. And I'm not being ironic.

[CincyBillsFan]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

I just rewatched the Clay drop. 

 

He's running a post route which gets on him a bit faster than he expected, and he reaches out his arms trying to pluck the ball below his waist, which while running up the field is a tough catch to make as he's initially looking for the ball over his shoulder and it comes in lower than expected. 

 

Try it. Imagine you're looking for a ball over your shoulder, and then imagine the ball is thrown below your waist. That's not a natural catch position. 

 

Should the ball have been caught? Yup. 

 

Should the ball have been thrown better? Absolutely. 

 

The issue is that even if caught, Clay is going to the ground, negating any run after catch because the ball is too low. It's an over the shoulder throw off play action that Allen needs to drop in bucket, and because there's no air under the ball Clay has to adjust his arm placement and winds up reaching down for the ball and dropping it.

 

It's an easy throw that Allen needs to make. Clay is literally wide open with no defender covering him and the pocket is totally clean. 

 

Okay, we've now gone from the ball being at his ankle to his knees and now just below his waist.  Talk about ball movement! 

 

The pass was very well thrown and should have been caught for a 25 - 30 yard gain. 

[Shaw66]

Virg -

 

Thanks for the write-up.   I didn't see the game, and it's nice to be able to get some in depth commentary.   Nice job. 

 

I don't know if I feel as positive about the team as you do.  Allen, Foster, Zay and Milano?  I'm thrilled about Allen, Zay's a slot/#2, Foster's a role player.  Milano is a mystery.  He might be turning into a stud.   (I haven't looked at any reports, but I understand he got hurt.   I hope he's okay.)   I see too many things that look like they aren't right yet.  Offensive line, receivers, tight ends, clutch play in the fourth quarter.  

 

I'm optimistic, but it's hard to be jumping up and down celebrating the growth in the team.   Not saying you were jumping up and down; just saying I see a lot that doesn't look like a winner yet.  Next season will be the serious test for McDermott.  He'll have some new and better talent, and we will have two full systems to implement his process.  In some ways the Bills look like they're close to being a winner instead of a loser, but it's hard to win in the NFL.  McDermott needs to do it.  

[Virgil]

38 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Virg -

 

Thanks for the write-up.   I didn't see the game, and it's nice to be able to get some in depth commentary.   Nice job. 

 

I don't know if I feel as positive about the team as you do.  Allen, Foster, Zay and Milano?  I'm thrilled about Allen, Zay's a slot/#2, Foster's a role player.  Milano is a mystery.  He might be turning into a stud.   (I haven't looked at any reports, but I understand he got hurt.   I hope he's okay.)   I see too many things that look like they aren't right yet.  Offensive line, receivers, tight ends, clutch play in the fourth quarter.  

 

I'm optimistic, but it's hard to be jumping up and down celebrating the growth in the team.   Not saying you were jumping up and down; just saying I see a lot that doesn't look like a winner yet.  Next season will be the serious test for McDermott.  He'll have some new and better talent, and we will have two full systems to implement his process.  In some ways the Bills look like they're close to being a winner instead of a loser, but it's hard to win in the NFL.  McDermott needs to do it.  

 

I honestly believe Milano will be our OLB for years to come and I’m good with that.  All he does is make plays and always seems to be around the ball. I think he’s made more of an impact than Edmunds at this point. 

 

I agree with Zay in the slot, but Foster is changing minds for me. He broke 100 yards today without a single deep pass. He broke down the defensive zones like a pro, had great awareness of the sticks, and made solid catches. I’m not getting crazy after just three games, but I think he’s earned the right to fight for a top 3 starting job through the end of this season and offseason.  If we got a legit number 1, Foster and Zay would round out a good enough receiving Corp to me as of this very moment.  My only real fear, besides it being a flash in the pan, is his size and how injuries could become a thing. 

 

If Teller pans out, those a solid acquisitions after round 3 that have shored up starting positions, which I think is vital to the success of any rebuilding team.  

 

I also think clutch play by Allen in the 4th has been a strength for him. Today’s final turnover was something he will do at any point in the game because he doesn’t like to throw the ball away, not because he’s trying to be a hero.  He’s already orchestrated two game winning drives this year, and had the defense held up, today would have been 3. I’m actually more concerned about the defense preventing game winning drives than I am about Allen right now.  

 

Sorry to hear you missed the game as I look forward to your write-ups

[Kemp]

10 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Well you’ll be severely wrong about that 

 

We have no choice but to wait and find out who is right.

 

I am rooting for you, because if I am right, forget about the next 3-5 seasons.