Julio Jones and the 2019 Bills

[transient]

4 hours ago, LittleJoeCartwright said:

 

The Reggie McKenzie that led The Electric Company and the Raiders GM are two different people 

 

Jim Kelly the HOF QB of the Buffalo Bills and Jim Kelly the deceased martial artist/actor are two different people.  What does any of this have to do with the Bills WR MacKenzie Phillips?

Edited December 4, 2018 by transient

[Jobot]

All depends what other free agents we try and go for.  If we lose out on some other guys, it wouldn't surprise me to send Julio a front-loaded contract.  Gotta spend the money somewhere.

But IMO i think there will be better options to set fire to all this free cap space!

[Augie]

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Seems like a majority of the board is more concerned with the salary cap than actually winning football games. 

 

Ther cap is only part of the issue, what would it cost in terms of draft picks. We have cap space and I’m all for using it (wisely - it’s not MY money!), but what do we have to give up in terms of picks? Do we know Julio will extend with us? He’s not an OBJ (who I would not want under these circumstances), but would he be down with the deal and re-up? Does he have 2 years left on this deal?  I LOVE the concept, I’m concerned about the details. I don’t know how you can be “for it” without knowing the full cost. 

 

Regardless, I’d say it would probably look like Atlanta played this very well. Not that you can’t have a win/win, but they filled that role with the inexpensive Ridley, then get back the pick they chose him with....so he’s basically free. THAT sounds smart to me. Yes, Julio is great and still playing at a high level for now. I’d LOVE to have him, but at what overall cost and is it the smartest way to proceed.  The way we used our picks last year, I guess I value them more than I used to. For a 3rd I’m all in. For a 1st and 3rd? Not so much. What would it cost means more than cap space. 

 

While I’m not totally against it, I want to know more than a concept.  I guess I see this differently than a lot of people here. Oh well, it’s just a dream......and what I want doesn’t amount to a hill of beans. 

[HomeskillitMoorman]

I like Julio as a player, but WR's have a sharp decline when it happens and he's probably approaching that kind of wear and tear soon. I think this would most likely turn into maybe a really good year or two from him and then we end up having a deteriorating version of him or eat some dead money on the backend of the deal. 

[The Bills Blog]

11 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

you want to spend two thirds of our cap space on Julio Jones?? 

 

Lol... The whole contract doesn't count toward the first year's cap, bro.

[Augie]

14 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Your not going to get him for a third. That's ridiculous. He's arguably the best WR in the game.

 

You are probably looking at a 1st round pick at the least. Maybe a 2nd and another early round pick. 

 

Considering WR is the Bills biggest need and they have a ***** ton of cap space to take on his contract I'd absolutely do it.

 

In all likelihood you are not getting a WR of Julios status with that first or second round pick you are trading away.

 

THIS is where it gets tricky. I look at and and say yeah, he’s great, but you probably only get 3 years of a top level player. By the 4th year you are probably regretting the contract. I’m just looking at it with a longer view. I get it, he would change our offense (HEY! He might even TRY!, unlike KB) and it’s extremely unlikely you get a player of that caliber in the draft, but how long will he still be that player? If it’s a 25 year old Julio I see things VERY differently. 

 

Again, due to his age I’m more worried about the cost in terms of picks than the cap. If you can do it without giving up too much in the draft, then sure. 

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Seems like a majority of the board is more concerned with the salary cap than actually winning football games. 

 

 

They are afraid of winning.

 

I mean that..........every time this team gets close to winning people start worrying about whether they are close *enough* to take a shot...........as if with just a little more hovering and drafting a 10 year run of owning the division is coming.

 

It was never going to end in NFL domination...........you just get back in contention and take your shots when the shooting is good.........like for instance, when Brady is in his 40's and the Jets are changing coaches and the Fish are in QB purgatory and your own coach is still getting his message listened to.

 

Since McD got here we've circled year 3 for a reason........it needs to happen. 

 

But it is INEVITABLE that the same people who have been pointing to the $80M cap room as an excuse for two years will now start backing off and making excuses............they ain't got the will to be bold!?

 

 

[MILFHUNTER#518]

12 hours ago, Estelle Getty said:

A match made in heaven.  He wants a new contract. The Falcons just took Ridley in the 1st round and will probably be rebuilding with a new coach. He will be 30 next year and has shown no signs of slowing down.  

 

I actually EXPECT Beane to make a run for him this off season.  We have seen he likes to wheel and deal and next year he will have the $ and picks at his disposal.  It fills probably our biggest need besides O-line, which is a true #1 reciever. Give him a 3 year 60 million dollar extension and everybody is happy. I don’t know what it would take to get him, maybe a 1st and a 4th or so.  

 

Then our 2019 Wr would look something like:

 

1.Julio Jones

2. Zay Jones

3. Isiah Mckenzie

4. Robert Foster

5. Fill in the blank

 

Get Allen a “waterbug” type running back, a # 1 tight end, 3 more offensive linemen and you have a division winner next year IMO. Oh yeh and a new special teams coach for good measure.  

 

 

 

 

Actually, as crazy as it sounds, I could see McBeane taking a flyer. They have been known to favor NFC south players in the past... They have seen up close and personal what this guy can do twice a year for many years. Just saying...

[PatsFanNH]

12 hours ago, Estelle Getty said:

A match made in heaven.  He wants a new contract. The Falcons just took Ridley in the 1st round and will probably be rebuilding with a new coach. He will be 30 next year and has shown no signs of slowing down.  

 

I actually EXPECT Beane to make a run for him this off season.  We have seen he likes to wheel and deal and next year he will have the $ and picks at his disposal.  It fills probably our biggest need besides O-line, which is a true #1 reciever. Give him a 3 year 60 million dollar extension and everybody is happy. I don’t know what it would take to get him, maybe a 1st and a 4th or so.  

 

Then our 2019 Wr would look something like:

 

1.Julio Jones

2. Zay Jones

3. Isiah Mckenzie

4. Robert Foster

5. Fill in the blank

 

Get Allen a “waterbug” type running back, a # 1 tight end, 3 more offensive linemen and you have a division winner next year IMO. Oh yeh and a new special teams coach for good measure.  

 

 

 

 

I think it’s more likely the Packers, Texans, Patriots go after him.  I mean you imagine adding him into the offensive mix in Houston. They be a 4 headed monster like the Steelers were BUT with a top shelf D. (Shudder)

[Solomon Grundy]

So, you wanna sign a 30 yr old WR to a BIG contract, but get rid of a 30 yr old RB because he's "losing a step"?

[KD in CA]

5 hours ago, mabden said:

 

 

James Lofton

 

Hence my use of the word ‘most’.  Thanks for making my point by needing to go back 30 years for an exception.

 

Also, it’s a poor comparison.  I don’t recall the Bills paying Loften top dollar, as Julio will command.

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

What you are incorrectly calling “conservative” is actually what prudence forces teams do when they are paying an elite QB big money.  Teams like the Bills who have a QB on a rookie deal can afford to be more aggressive elsewhere.

 

And in any event I don’t think you’re right about their mentality.  They went after Mack.  They must know that adding a top tier receiver will help Josh’s development -  they need to protect the investment they’ve made in him - beefing up the interior line, adding a young versatile running back, maybe a tight end, and yes, a real actual live-bodied pro receiver - these are just things need to be done and I expect Beane to do them.

 

As for your list of expiring contracts - that is one motley bunch - they had better not use up a sizeable portion of their cap room on that group.

 

 

 

Nonsense. Those teams were just as conservative before they were playing good QBs big money. It's their extremely long-term strategy. The Steelers were doing it back as far as Slash and Neil O'Donnell, Bubby Brister and Mark Malone. The Pats were doing it during Brady's early years when he was unbelievably cheap as a 6th rounder. And the Packers only had Rodgers on a rookie contract for a year or two after he started playing they didn't do anything of that type to help him out in that window. Calling those teams conservative is right smack on the money. Baltimore was conservative far before Flacco was a glint in their eye.

 

The Bills went after Mack? Khalil Mack? Where's the evidence that was anything but due diligence?

 

And yeah, a top tier receiver would help Josh's development. And bringing in another top-tier receiver would've helped Cam Newton early too. But they didn't do that.  They brought in receivers by drafting them. It's what they do, as they're conservative.

 

And that bunch of Bills FAs aren't "motley" at all. There are a bunch of lower-priced guys on there but anyone calling a list with Kyle Williams, Jordan Phillips, Lorax, Eddie Yarbrough, and Levi Wallace on it "motley" has some kind of agenda. Yeah, there are some guys on it that will be cheap and some that maybe won't be re-signed but they could easily spend a very decent chunk of change on re-signing the ones they want.

Edited December 4, 2018 by Thurman#1

[dave mcbride]

12 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

They gave a part time player in Star Lotulelei $10M per year..............if you  don't think the FO is ready and willing to spend to fix holes I don't know what to tell ya'!

 

The Packers used the "always want to be getting younger" approach with their roster under Rodgers and it ultimately got McCarthy fired.

 

You gotta' make moves when you have opportunity to convert them into success.............and next season the AFC East could be wide open for the first time in 2 decades.........it's time to try to make that jump like the Eagles/Rams/Chiefs/Bears have in the past couple seasons.

He calls to mind this guy, who had a very good age-31 season in 2012, slipped a little in 2013 (age 32), and fell off a cliff after that. He got hurt in his age 30 season, but probably would have racked up big numbers if he had stayed healthy. Extremely similar players, stat and size wise. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JohnAn02.htm

 

If Julio can give us similar production in his age 30-32 years (barring injury), than of course you grab him if he's available. You dump  him after the age 32 season, just when you need to unlock the Brinks Truck for Allen's second contract.

Edited December 4, 2018 by dave mcbride

[BADOLBILZ]

9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yup, the eighties were the last time this franchise was in legitimate cap difficulties ...

 

Except of course the ones we just finally squirmed our way out of, with Whaley spending like a team in a Super Bowl window on a team that was mediocre at best. Next year we'll finally be able to stop worrying about that. But don't expect them to change who they are.

 

"Because we have it" is no reason to spend all the money you have. They are a conservative FO. Might as well get used to it. They make a non-conservative move every once in a great while, but this is who they are. It's what they learned in Carolina, and it's what virtually all the teams that are consistent competitors for titles do. And since being a consistent competitor for titles is their express goal, building through the draft and filling in with non-premium FAs is what you ought to expect.

 

Oh, and after three years under contract, teams can work new contracts, so they will be able to start working out newies for McDermott's first draft right after next year. Not to mention guys like Jordan Phillips, Kyle Williams, Lorax, Groy and Mills (as depth, hopefully), Derek Anderson (as QB mentor), Logan Thomas, Sirles, Eddie Yarbrough, McKenzie, Foster and Levi Wallace who are not signed as yet for next year. Or even Benjamin, though they might easily decide any contract is too much for the guy, even though his price will surely have dropped. They absolutely won't sign all of them but are likely to sign a bunch and could sign guys they want for the long term to front-loaded contracts that will be spend a lot of salary next year and not so much down the road to keep the cap in good shape. They could also use that money to extend guys like Hughes

 

 

There was no salary cap in the eighties.

 

They didn't squirm out of any tight space recently...........they had $30M last offseason,  $80M this offseason and like $120M projected the following.

 

They could have signed ANYONE they wanted last offseason.........DESPITE all of the dead money they chose to jam onto the 2018 books.

 

And yes they have a reason to spend...........per the cba every team needs to spend 90% of their cap room over a 3 year period. 

 

Back in the 90's the Bills pushed cap debt forward every year and nobody on TSW thought much of it............much like the Saints have been doing for a decade now..........there really isn't much consequence........you take a year off to reset your cap every decade or so and it's back at it...........just like Donahoe was back signing free agents the offseason after his famous purge that was supposed to result in 5 years of no cap room.?

[BADOLBILZ]

11 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

He calls to mind this guy, who had a very good age-31 season in 2012, slipped a little in 2013 (age 32), and fell off a cliff after that. He got hurt in his age 30 season, but probably would have racked up big numbers if he had stayed healthy. Extremely similar players, stat and size wise. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JohnAn02.htm

 

If Julio can give us similar production in his age 30-32 years (barring injury), than of course you grab him if he's available. You dump  him after the age 32 season, just when you need to unlock the Brinks Truck for Allen's second contract.

 

Yeah it's very similar.    I think Julio is the better player at that age but he also is probably a bit more of an injury concern.

 

Bills fans love clutching their first round picks until they turn into EVERYBODY the Bills picked in the first round for 17 years until Tre White.

 

When we are talking about cap concerns, having to potentially re-sign 3 big money first rounders(White/Allen/Edmunds) in a two year period is a real concern down the road.........but it's LESS of a conundrum if there isn't another one coming right behind them.

 

People have to remember that more first rounders are going to be like Shaq(dubiously worth it) or Gilmore(inconsistent for most of first contract) than they are going to be fresh and hot out the box like Tre White.    

 

If you can get a 1500 yard WR for a few years and you already have your QB/LT/CB positions on cheap rookie contracts it's probably worth a shot.

[Augie]

27 minutes ago, Bandito said:

We haven't serioulsy been competitive for a long ass time.

 

Very true, but I feel like it’s our time. This group isn’t perfect, but it does feel very different. Just one guy’s opinion...

[Thurman#1]

36 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

There was no salary cap in the eighties.

 

They didn't squirm out of any tight space recently...........they had $30M last offseason,  $80M this offseason and like $120M projected the following.

 

They could have signed ANYONE they wanted last offseason.........DESPITE all of the dead money they chose to jam onto the 2018 books.

 

And yes they have a reason to spend...........per the cba every team needs to spend 90% of their cap room over a 3 year period. 

 

Back in the 90's the Bills pushed cap debt forward every year and nobody on TSW thought much of it............much like the Saints have been doing for a decade now..........there really isn't much consequence........you take a year off to reset your cap every decade or so and it's back at it...........just like Donahoe was back signing free agents the offseason after his famous purge that was supposed to result in 5 years of no cap room.?

 

 

You're right about the eighties. My mistake, I meant the era you referred to, the Butler years, which was the second most recent time they were in serious cap difficulties. Unfortunately, Whaley managed it again.

 

But no, they didn't have $30 mill last offseason, at least not till they did some real cutting to start to dig their way out from under.  They went into the offseason with around $16 mill under the cap, which made them 26th or 27th in the league. Only after they cut Tyrod and a few others did they make $30 mill available to themselves, at the cost of a lot of dead money.

 

And no, you don't "need to spend 90% of their cap room over a 3 year period," as you claim. You have to spend 89% over a four year period. And since we have been close to the cap by the end of seasons for years now, this will put very little pressure on us. And even if you did underspend for four years, you don't lose anything except giving back money to the NFLPA. Nobody's forced to spend nutsily to avoid the salary cap floor by these rules. Certainly not from one year of having $40 or $50 mill left over under the cap if that's how they decide to go.

 

And yeah, they could have signed anyone last year ... if they had been willing to dig themselves even further into cap hell. Sure, guys with huge credit card debt can nearly always get a new card or two and dig themselves deeper. It's spectacularly stupid, but possible. Same here. Sure, they could have dove deeper into the crap, but it would've been dumb. Not to mention mistimed. You don't spend a ton on FAs when you're doing a near-complete rebuild. 

 

And yeah, back in the 90s the Bills pushed cap debt forward every year ... which is why they then had one of the NFL's all time worst cap situations and were forced to do a massive roster dump leading into the Whitey years. Oh, and speaking of the Whitey years, 2001 to 2005, where are all these high-priced FAs you're claiming he brought in?

 

Your thing about "five years of no cap room," is just ridiculous and off-point. Nobody said it was supposed to last five years, unless maybe you did. Their roster purge got them back in decent cap shape in a couple of years, which is what tends to happen. But they had a 3-win, and 8-win and a 6-win season as a result of having to dump so many players.  You rebuild. It's immensely painful and gets the whiners moaning and pissing for two or three years and then if the FO is capable things can get better.

Edited December 4, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

14 hours ago, Estelle Getty said:

A match made in heaven.  He wants a new contract. The Falcons just took Ridley in the 1st round and will probably be rebuilding with a new coach. He will be 30 next year and has shown no signs of slowing down.  

 

I actually EXPECT Beane to make a run for him this off season.  We have seen he likes to wheel and deal and next year he will have the $ and picks at his disposal.  It fills probably our biggest need besides O-line, which is a true #1 reciever. Give him a 3 year 60 million dollar extension and everybody is happy. I don’t know what it would take to get him, maybe a 1st and a 4th or so.  

 

Then our 2019 Wr would look something like:

 

1.Julio Jones

2. Zay Jones

3. Isiah Mckenzie

4. Robert Foster

5. Fill in the blank

 

Get Allen a “waterbug” type running back, a # 1 tight end, 3 more offensive linemen and you have a division winner next year IMO. Oh yeh and a new special teams coach for good measure.  

 

 

 

 

 

He's my keeper on my fantasy team and HAS shown many signs of slowing down.  But think that's more to do with Ryan having many other options besides Julio.

 

Believe he has 2 years left on contract.  I wouldn't give up a 1st though, if Atlanta is ready to move on likely he'd be available for much less, maybe a 3rd or 2nd a most.  Teams know you don't give up 1st rounders for a 30 yo think Atlanta realizes that too.

[Foxx]

14 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

you want to spend two thirds of our cap space on Julio Jones?? 

 

it's not 60mm payable next year, dumbas i mean domba.

[Chicken Boo]

9 hours ago, BakersBills said:

We can just draft the next Julio Jones...

 

And his name is D.K. Metcalf!