Allen is More Accurate Than I Thought He Would Be

[elroy16]

I swear, reading this thread you'd think other QB's in the league are completing 90% of their passes.

 

I agree wholeheartedly with the OP, Allen is much more accurate than I thought he'd be. His misses aren't that far off. The Foster bomb, the Foster sideline thrown, and Jones towards the sideline were all throws you want him to make but they aren't easy throws. The crossing pattern by Zay where Allen threw high was probably his worst throw (that or the INT) and that one Zay could have had, but it wasn't easy. The throw to Zay where there was a holding penalty and Allen threw it too far, Zay wasn't running when Allen threw it. Like the missed TD, I think that was more of a miscommunication than anything. 

 

He missed one to Benjamin early that it looked like KB may have been able to come back and fight for the ball. For a guy that is supposed to be good at catching contested passes, I've been extremely underwhelmed by Benjamin.

 

Allen also threw it away 4 or 5 times. 

 

In terms of his short area accuracy or throws with touch, he had a short throw to Clay, the 2-point conversion, the touch pass to DiMarco, two quick throws to McKenzie, the comeback to KB, and a few others. I think his short area accuracy has gotten better and he was solid this game. I don't recall any misfires that prevented a catch or YAC by the receiver. 

 

 

 

In terms of scrambling, well you can't really blame him for it. The o-line is not good and this stat proves it. You can't really claim it's because he holds the ball too long as this stat takes that into account. 

 

 

 

 

Another thing that impressed me yesterday was how little he got hit while scrambling. Last game he lowered his should a time or two when he shoulda gone out of bounds or slide while yesterday he didn't really take any shots while scrambling. It was a noticeable improvement in one game.

 

 

Allen is leaps and bounds further along than I expected him to be at this point. If he was playing like this at the beginning of next year, I would have been extremely happy. His line isn't giving him much time and he isn't getting bailed out by his receivers. Unless it's a average difficulty catch or less, it's almost always dropped. Can you guys think of one spectacular catch by someone this year? The Foster bomb last week was probably the best so far. 

 

 

Yes, he's missing some throws (literally every QB does) and I'm sure he's missing some reads, but he is so much better right now that I was expecting. He's making throws down the field we haven't seen in years, buying time in the pocket, and getting better every week. Beane himself said they need to do a better job of adding talent around him. It's going to be fun watching him develop. 

Edited December 3, 2018 by elroy16

[GoBills808]

I think people have a difficult time separating a QB's 'accuracy' from his 'consistency'. And there's a big difference.

 

If a QB is inaccurate, he can't throw the ball where he wants to. Manuel was an example, he just could not hit the target. Sometimes it was caught, other times it wasn't, but the ball was never in the right place it needed to be. That's inaccuracy, and the Manuels and Tebows of the world are unable to overcome it, because it is a fundamental component of their ability to play quarterback, inherent to their game from the way they release the ball to the way they read the defense and decide to target a particular spot on the field. It IS a fatal quarterbacking flaw.

 

But inconsistency is different. Allen suffers from inconsistency, which is the inability to put the ball where you want it EVERY SINGLE TIME, and often at a rate less consistent than his peers. Allen can and has thrown perfectly placed balls, on the move and from the pocket and going backwards and forwards and short and long etc..., he just hasn't been doing it regularly enough. Inconsistency is primarily a function of QB 'mechanics', which are essentially correctable physical traits/habits/behaviors that make consistent delivery of the football very difficult. When everything works and he trusts his read and remembers his coaching, he delivers a good accurate throw. When he isn't able to overcome his poor habits, he's inconsistent in his delivery.

[PolishPrince]

3 hours ago, Hebert19 said:

He throws 20 yard rockets better than most in league already.  It's the shorter dump offs with touch he struggles with.  

Even this is overblown... how about the throw to DiMarco? The 5 yard out route to Zay in the fourth? The screen to McCoy in the 4th? His short throws are fine, just randomly like 1-2 a game yes he rushes his feet and misses one. But all those throws I mentioned above were short under neath throws and they were put on the money with YAC

3 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

I do not look at accuracy as a duality--you either are or you are not accurate.  I see it as a spectrum.  Allen is by no means the most accurate quarterback.  But coming into the year, based on the scouting reports and every thing I had heard, I had expected him to be grossly inaccurate.  I do not think that has been the case.  He misses alot of throws; Zay in the endzone, Clay in the endzone , the interception.  But aside from those, he made numerous intermediate throws that were deadly accurate.  That throw to Zay at the end of the game that Zay dropped was a dime.  

 

The big thing is that I think his completion percentage is a bit misleading.  For whatever reason, probably because he has not developed his reads, Allen doesn't take the check down often.  Those check down throws really inflate completion percentages, especially for rookies.  Almost all of Allen's throws are over ten yards in the air.  Those lower percentage intermediate throws will always drive a completion percentage down.  

 

Point is this, I am happy with Allen's accuracy.  It is better than I expected, and I am hoping he will improve.  I am much more excited about Allen now than I was when we first drafted him.  

Fixed your mistake above.

But I agree, I of course didnt watch him in college and I didnt want another project waiting 3 years to see if they were worth a damn. I wanted the NFL ready QB for once. I am glad I was wrong, I am in love with Josh.

To touch on the "develop reads for why he doesnt check down" portion of your post. I dont think its his inability to see the check down. I dont remember where I heard it, hell maybe it was just a dream. But I believe he was interviewed after a college game where he made a crazy TD throw where a guy was open for a first down underneath. I think the interviewer said something like "Why did you even try to make that throw?" Allen responds "Well like Brett Favre always said: 'Touchdowns first.' " So I think this is going to be the one love/hate thing with Josh people will have as long as he has legs to make plays, and routes downfield.... I think the check down option to him is like an absolute emergency play. He is the kind of guy who would rather try a difficult 15 yard throw than a 2 yard gimme. Hell we have had a lot of "Captain Checkdowns" here in the past, so we should be happy with this - right?

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

30 minutes ago, PolishPrince said:

Even this is overblown... how about the throw to DiMarco? The 5 yard out route to Zay in the fourth? The screen to McCoy in the 4th? His short throws are fine, just randomly like 1-2 a game yes he rushes his feet and misses one. But all those throws I mentioned above were short under neath throws and they were put on the money with YAC

Fixed your mistake above.

But I agree, I of course didnt watch him in college and I didnt want another project waiting 3 years to see if they were worth a damn. I wanted the NFL ready QB for once. I am glad I was wrong, I am in love with Josh.

To touch on the "develop reads for why he doesnt check down" portion of your post. I dont think its his inability to see the check down. I dont remember where I heard it, hell maybe it was just a dream. But I believe he was interviewed after a college game where he made a crazy TD throw where a guy was open for a first down underneath. I think the interviewer said something like "Why did you even try to make that throw?" Allen responds "Well like Brett Favre always said: 'Touchdowns first.' " So I think this is going to be the one love/hate thing with Josh people will have as long as he has legs to make plays, and routes downfield.... I think the check down option to him is like an absolute emergency play. He is the kind of guy who would rather try a difficult 15 yard throw than a 2 yard gimme. Hell we have had a lot of "Captain Checkdowns" here in the past, so we should be happy with this - right?

 

I agree on the Clay thing, but I didn't want this thread to dissolve into an Allen v. Clay debate.  

[thebandit27]

Some of these opinions are quite interesting to read...especially thinking back to conversations on this board in February and March.

[ctk232]

5 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

I do not look at accuracy as a duality--you either are or you are not accurate.  I see it as a spectrum.  Allen is by no means the most accurate quarterback.  But coming into the year, based on the scouting reports and every thing I had heard, I had expected him to be grossly inaccurate.  I do not think that has been the case.  He misses alot of throws; Zay in the endzone, Clay in the endzone, the interception.  But aside from those, he made numerous intermediate throws that were deadly accurate.  That throw to Zay at the end of the game that Zay dropped was a dime.  

 

The big thing is that I think his completion percentage is a bit misleading.  For whatever reason, probably because he has not developed his reads, Allen doesn't take the check down often.  Those check down throws really inflate completion percentages, especially for rookies.  Almost all of Allen's throws are over ten yards in the air.  Those lower percentage intermediate throws will always drive a completion percentage down.  

 

Point is this, I am happy with Allen's accuracy.  It is better than I expected, and I am hoping he will improve.  I am much more excited about Allen now than I was when we first drafted him.  

Good points - the one thing I realized I noticed more yesterday than in his previous games was the number of "waffle" throws he had that weren't forced by pressure. It's only an eye test, but I noticed there were throws where he would waffle and either short the pass or miss inaccurately. Some of these came on the run, but a good number were either from a set position following a scramble, or even just moving about the pocket and throwing from a set position (some times with pressure looming or within reach).

 

The reason I mention it is I recall Daboll and the coaches saying that one of the things they were working on with Allen was his finesse as his full cannon isn't needed all the time. What I wonder is if this is Allen attempting to over-correct or attempt a more finessed throw, resulting in a more waffled pass. In all honesty, I can't tell if what I saw yesterday was just me, a result of him attempting to correct what the coaches identified. Either way the inconsistencies with sprial throws when not pressured seemed odd to me, and certainly contributory to his accuracy. Especially on certain throws like with Zay in the back of the endzone throwing behind him - took potential points off the board there.

 

I don't think this deserves a thread, but did anyone else notice this as well and have similar/different takes?

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

The blueprint is there. For whatever reason teams just aren't utilizing it.

 

Eventually people are going to figure out to stop a player like Allen, you need to rush 3 with a Spy, and drop the other 7 guys into zone coverage so they can keep their eyes on him in case he tries to run. 

 

Same as Tyrod. Make him be a quarterback, and eliminate his ability to escape the pocket, roll to his right and make big plays down the field. 

 

He's such an amazing runner that might now happen, but that's what I'd be doing if I was an opposing DC. Forget trying to sack him, just keep him in the pocket and make him beat you with his arm. 

 

He's the same size as Cam Newton, and after a while even he started getting banged up from the hits. Broken ribs, concussions, etc. 

 

You can't run as a QB as much as Newton did early in his career and Allen is now and expect to stay healthy. 

 

Except they are already doing this against Allen and it’s not working.  Dolphins had a spy all game on Allen, and it was mostly Kiko who has speed himself and Allen still made them pay dearly.  What you dont understand is that ever since the Vikings game, teams have been using spies frequently on Allen and are all trying to contain him as a runner.

 

Dolphin coaches and players all spoke about how dangerous he is as a runner before and after the game.  

[kota]

It's pretty obvious that he has gotten better with touch passes.  Go watch him in preseason where all he did was gun it.

[Alphadawg7]

7 minutes ago, kota said:

It's pretty obvious that he has gotten better with touch passes.  Go watch him in preseason where all he did was gun it.

 

Agreed.  Here is what so many people miss...the quick and significant improvements this kid makes.  When the off season began, I had him last in the top 5 of the QBs and didn’t want him.  But what blew me away and won me over was how much this kid really improved in a short window working on the fundamentals during the draft process.  He went right to #2 behind Baker for me on draft night.

 

Then to see the strides he made quickly early season from preseason and now how much better he got since being injured and it’s stunning how fast this kid takes leaps forward.  

 

I for one am stoked to see what he can do with an entire offseason being undisputed starter and getting all the reps to go along with more talent around him.  

Edited December 3, 2018 by Alphadawg7

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

Some of these opinions are quite interesting to read...especially thinking back to conversations on this board in February and March.

 

Credit to you for being the first scout (amateur or otherwise) on this board to say he could be something. He's certainly changed my mind. He could still fall off but I'm feeling way more confident than I would have ever thought possible. I mean I always thought the completion percentage thing was overblown but I did have concerns about his accuracy.

[Bangarang]

5 hours ago, BillsFan2313 said:

 

Que the "different era" folks

 

Ryan Tannehill has a higher career completion percentage and QB rating than Jimbo. 

 

Comparing stats of modern day QBs to those of 20-30 years ago is silly.

[mjt328]

6 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

The blueprint is there. For whatever reason teams just aren't utilizing it.

 

Eventually people are going to figure out to stop a player like Allen, you need to rush 3 with a Spy, and drop the other 7 guys into zone coverage so they can keep their eyes on him in case he tries to run. 

 

Same as Tyrod. Make him be a quarterback, and eliminate his ability to escape the pocket, roll to his right and make big plays down the field. 

 

He's such an amazing runner that might now happen, but that's what I'd be doing if I was an opposing DC. Forget trying to sack him, just keep him in the pocket and make him beat you with his arm. 

 

 

I agree that if Allen doesn't become a good passer, then teams will be able to stop him with a similar defense as what you said above.  Keep him in the pocket and force him to make plays with his arm.

 

But I think Allen's critics (and there are many on this board) are just looking at his crazy rushing numbers, and are ignoring the improvements we are seeing in his passing.  For anyone paying attention, the growth is pretty obvious to see.  He's making better reads, and doing it quicker than what he was doing back in September/October. 

 

When he was drafted, I considered him WAY behind Mayfield, Darnold and Rosen in terms of throwing mechanics, accuracy and pocket presence.  He was basically a raw lump of clay with tons of athletic potential.  Seven months later, and I think he's already pretty much caught-up to those guys. 

 

Obviously Allen has a long-ways to go.  But we are seeing progression, which isn't something that could ever be said about our last 1st Round QBs.  The EJ Manuel we saw in Week 1-2 of his 2013 rookie season was probably the best he ever played in the NFL.  It took JP Losman until the middle of his third season before he finally showed a glimpse of being adequate, but was all downhill from that point.

 

 

 

[John from Riverside]

WR's need to be able to catch rockets from him .....just like they had to with John Elway

[Max Fischer]

8 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

I do not look at accuracy as a duality--you either are or you are not accurate.  I see it as a spectrum.  Allen is by no means the most accurate quarterback.  But coming into the year, based on the scouting reports and every thing I had heard, I had expected him to be grossly inaccurate.  I do not think that has been the case.  He misses alot of throws; Zay in the endzone, Clay in the endzone, the interception.  But aside from those, he made numerous intermediate throws that were deadly accurate.  That throw to Zay at the end of the game that Zay dropped was a dime.  

 

The big thing is that I think his completion percentage is a bit misleading.  For whatever reason, probably because he has not developed his reads, Allen doesn't take the check down often.  Those check down throws really inflate completion percentages, especially for rookies.  Almost all of Allen's throws are over ten yards in the air.  Those lower percentage intermediate throws will always drive a completion percentage down.  

 

Point is this, I am happy with Allen's accuracy.  It is better than I expected, and I am hoping he will improve.  I am much more excited about Allen now than I was when we first drafted him.  

 

Agree except for the examples.  Missed Zay throw was a miscommunication, not an accuracy issue.  I will fight anyone who says the Clay throw was inaccurate. That was a thing of beauty. Under the same circumstances, maybe Aaron Rodgers in his prime makes that throw but I can't think of anyone else would be capable.  

 

The inception was not a good read/throw but I do wonder about McDermott's comment that alluded to the lack of crispness on KB's route. 

 

Allen has a lot to work out but I'm even encouraged by his touch passes (Zay on the WR screen for 2 points, and the floater to DiMarco)

[BillsFan2313]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

 

Ryan Tannehill has a higher career completion percentage and QB rating than Jimbo. 

 

Comparing stats of modern day QBs to those of 20-30 years ago is silly.

 

 

 

Yesssss

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

10 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

To build on your point, I think it's a good thing that Allen doesn't go to his check down receiver that much.  I once heard a coach say that you know a rookie QB or experienced is rattled and may be on his way to being a bust when he throws the check down pass to often.  IMO the Bills don't have the talent to fully exploit the check down yet:

 

*  Shady could be that guy but even he's lost a step and doesn't give us the check down threat that say an Alvin Kamara/Todd Gurly/Christian McCaffrey does.  And unlike most NFL teams we don't have anyone at TE that could remotely be considered a check down threat. 

 

*  For the check down pass to work properly you need to have a viable deep ball threat.  It's only been in the last few weeks that the Bills offense put enough speed on the field at receiver to provide that threat.  It also takes a QB willing AND able to throw the ball 60 yards downfield.  Allen has both of these attributes and while he just missed the 70 yard bomb to Forster don't think for a minute the Jet's safety's won't be studying that play in the film room this week. 

 

*  But if fans want to see 70% completion percentages they should hope Allen takes a page out of Anderson's play book.  I mean the guy was hitting his check down passes at 90%!  Think about all those 3rd and 12 plays where he threw the perfect 8 yard completion! 

 

Sound like anyone we know around here??