Allen is More Accurate Than I Thought He Would Be

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

I do not look at accuracy as a duality--you either are or you are not accurate.  I see it as a spectrum.  Allen is by no means the most accurate quarterback.  But coming into the year, based on the scouting reports and every thing I had heard, I had expected him to be grossly inaccurate.  I do not think that has been the case.  He misses alot of throws; Zay in the endzone, Clay in the endzone, the interception.  But aside from those, he made numerous intermediate throws that were deadly accurate.  That throw to Zay at the end of the game that Zay dropped was a dime.  

 

The big thing is that I think his completion percentage is a bit misleading.  For whatever reason, probably because he has not developed his reads, Allen doesn't take the check down often.  Those check down throws really inflate completion percentages, especially for rookies.  Almost all of Allen's throws are over ten yards in the air.  Those lower percentage intermediate throws will always drive a completion percentage down.  

 

Point is this, I am happy with Allen's accuracy.  It is better than I expected, and I am hoping he will improve.  I am much more excited about Allen now than I was when we first drafted him.  

[clearwater cadet]

agreed

[Hebert19]

He throws 20 yard rockets better than most in league already.  It's the shorter dump offs with touch he struggles with.  

[teef]

it's not great, but they way i heard people talking about it before and after the draft, it's now not nearly as much of a concern for me.  i think his problem right now is the speed of the game.  he needs to process a bit better, but i'm fairly positive that will come with time.

[Royale with Cheese]

When it comes to Allen's inaccuracy....I think it's overblown because when he's off, he's way off.  It just looks worse.

He puts the ball on the numbers or the spot it needs to be a lot too....but it's just those head scratching throws every once in a while that make people comment on it more.

 

It's like a 3 point shooter who does sink them at a decent rate but every once in awhile....he air balls it.  So fans will jump over that and say "See!  He can't shoot...good shooters don't air ball it like that".  

[CincyBillsFan]

20 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

The big thing is that I think his completion percentage is a bit misleading.  For whatever reason, probably because he has not developed his reads, Allen doesn't take the check down often.  Those check down throws really inflate completion percentages, especially for rookies.  Almost all of Allen's throws are over ten yards in the air.  Those lower percentage intermediate throws will always drive a completion percentage down.  

 

 

 

To build on your point, I think it's a good thing that Allen doesn't go to his check down receiver that much.  I once heard a coach say that you know a rookie QB is rattled and may be on his way to being a bust when he throws the check down pass to often.  IMO the Bills don't have the talent to fully exploit the check down yet:

 

*  Shady could be that guy but even he's lost a step and doesn't give us the check down threat that say an Alvin Kamara/Todd Gurly/Christian McCaffrey does.  And unlike most NFL teams we don't have anyone at TE that could remotely be considered a check down threat. 

 

*  For the check down pass to work properly you need to have a viable deep ball threat.  It's only been in the last few weeks that the Bills offense put enough speed on the field at receiver to provide that threat.  It also takes a QB willing AND able to throw the ball 60 yards downfield.  Allen has both of these attributes and while he just missed the 70 yard bomb to Forster don't think for a minute the Jet's safety's won't be studying that play in the film room this week. 

 

*  But if fans want to see 70% completion percentages they should hope Allen takes a page out of Anderson's play book.  I mean the guy was hitting his check down passes at 90%!  Think about all those 3rd and 12 plays where he threw the perfect 8 yard completion! 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

1 minute ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

To build on your point, I think it's a good thing that Allen doesn't go to his check down receiver that much.  I once heard a coach say that you know a rookie QB is rattled and may be on his way to being a bust when he throws the check down pass to often.  IMO the Bills don't have the talent to fully exploit the check down yet:

 

*  Shady could be that guy but even he's lost a step and doesn't give us the check down threat that say an Alvin Kamara/Todd Gurly/Christian McCaffrey does.  And unlike most NFL teams we don't have anyone at TE that could remotely be considered a check down threat. 

 

*  For the check down pass to work properly you need to have a viable deep ball threat.  It's only been in the last few weeks that the Bills offense put enough speed on the field at receiver to provide that threat.  It also takes a QB willing AND able to throw the ball 60 yards downfield.  Allen has both of these attributes and while he just missed the 70 yard bomb to Forster don't think for a minute the Jet's safety's won't be studying that play in the film room this week. 

 

*  But if fans want to see 70% completion percentages they should hope Allen takes a page out of Anderson's play book.  I mean the guy was hitting his check down passes at 90%!  Think about all those 3rd and 12 plays where he threw the perfect 8 yard completion! 

 

Its such a central point to the "Allen fails the analytics" test that I think goes completely unmentioned.  It is a ton of fun watching our guy not relying exclusively on the check down.  Its a much more fun offense to watch.  Plus, eventually, if it all comes together, the check down will become a much more effective play. 

[RobH063]

Allen's completion percentage is 52.9 %. If Benjamin and Clay caught even half of the balls they dropped it would be 66.5% Allen's accuracy is fine.

[billsfan1959]

The single most exaggerated criticism of Allen. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

10 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

To build on your point, I think it's a good thing that Allen doesn't go to his check down receiver that much.  I once heard a coach say that you know a rookie QB is rattled and may be on his way to being a bust when he throws the check down pass to often.  IMO the Bills don't have the talent to fully exploit the check down yet:

 

*  Shady could be that guy but even he's lost a step and doesn't give us the check down threat that say an Alvin Kamara/Todd Gurly/Christian McCaffrey does.  And unlike most NFL teams we don't have anyone at TE that could remotely be considered a check down threat. 

 

*  For the check down pass to work properly you need to have a viable deep ball threat.  It's only been in the last few weeks that the Bills offense put enough speed on the field at receiver to provide that threat.  It also takes a QB willing AND able to throw the ball 60 yards downfield.  Allen has both of these attributes and while he just missed the 70 yard bomb to Forster don't think for a minute the Jet's safety's won't be studying that play in the film room this week. 

 

*  But if fans want to see 70% completion percentages they should hope Allen takes a page out of Anderson's play book.  I mean the guy was hitting his check down passes at 90%!  Think about all those 3rd and 12 plays where he threw the perfect 8 yard completion! 

 

Shady has to chip or block most of the game because our line is so bad.  I think he'll still be a useful 3rd down back in 2019 but thats just me.  I do think we need to address the position a bit though.

[oldmanfan]

I agree overall with the OP, although I would take exception to saying the throw to Clay wasn't accurate.  He hit him in both hands.  Might have been a foot or two short from 60 some yards; that's accurate to me.

 

I think if you watch the kid, he seems more accurate when he has a solid pocket to throw from, as might be expected.  He seems to miss more throws when moving around.

 

The central premise of the OP that completion percentage is overblown is so spot on.  if you do the math from his college days, and if you're one of those people fixated on the 60% completion thing as a magical yardstick, it came down to about one completion a game.  One.  Per game.  In a game where there are so many variables such as offensive style, quality of competition, quality of players on your side of the ball, and it is just meaningless.

 

You watch the last couple games, and you see a kid that is getting the game to slow down.  And that's the key for young QBs.  Get the game to slow down so you make quicker decisions, get the ball out more precisely.  Is he perfect?  No.  Does he have a ways to go?  Sure.  But you can't watch that game yesterday, particularly the last series, without being excited about the future for the kid.  And without thinking that the accuracy thing is way overblown.

[mjt328]

53 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

I do not look at accuracy as a duality--you either are or you are not accurate.  I see it as a spectrum.  Allen is by no means the most accurate quarterback.  But coming into the year, based on the scouting reports and every thing I had heard, I had expected him to be grossly inaccurate.  I do not think that has been the case.  He misses alot of throws; Zay in the endzone, Clay in the endzone, the interception.  But aside from those, he made numerous intermediate throws that were deadly accurate.  That throw to Zay at the end of the game that Zay dropped was a dime.  

 

The big thing is that I think his completion percentage is a bit misleading.  For whatever reason, probably because he has not developed his reads, Allen doesn't take the check down often.  Those check down throws really inflate completion percentages, especially for rookies.  Almost all of Allen's throws are over ten yards in the air.  Those lower percentage intermediate throws will always drive a completion percentage down.  

 

Point is this, I am happy with Allen's accuracy.  It is better than I expected, and I am hoping he will improve.  I am much more excited about Allen now than I was when we first drafted him.  

 

I watched almost every game from Josh Allen's senior year, and his poor mechanics constantly forced him into making inaccurate throws. 

That is the main reason I was concerned about the Bills drafting him, and greatly preferred taking the safer pick in Josh Rosen.

 

However in the 7-8 games Allen has appeared in as a rookie, I've noticed a pretty significant improvement in this area.  Not just from his senior year in college, but also a big improvement between the first month of the season and what we have seen over the last two games.  He's still missing a few more throws than what I would like.  But the bad throws are coming with less frequency and the good throws are happening more often.

 

I agree that completion percentage is not the best way of determining a player's accuracy.  You have to consider the distance of the pass, how much of a window the QB is throwing into, what kind of route the receiver is running, pressure coming from the defense, etc., etc.  Many "horrible misses" are a actually product of miscommunication or bad timing (basically expecting the receiver to be in a different place) than a sign of poor accuracy.

 

It's also important to consider the reason behind an inaccurate pass.

Most players miss throws because of poor mechanics (footwork and body positioning).  A guy like Ryan Fitzpatrick always struggled with accuracy downfield, because he always had to sacrifice his mechanics to make-up for his mediocre arm strength.  He could rifle a nice 5-10 yard slant.  But he could never get consistent on 25-30 yards throws.  In contrast, EJ Manuel had the arm strength.  But by the time he reached the NFL, his bad habits/horrible mechanics were already set in stone. 

 

We know Allen has the physical ability to complete every pass.  So it's encouraging to see that he CAN be molded and improve his mechanics.  Hopefully he just keeps getting better and better, and doesn't hit a wall.

 

 

Edited December 3, 2018 by mjt328

[CincyBillsFan]

10 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

Shady has to chip or block most of the game because our line is so bad.  I think he'll still be a useful 3rd down back in 2019 but thats just me.  I do think we need to address the position a bit though.

I agree and I suspect that Shady could play this role well once we've set in place the other conditions that allow an offense to use the check down guy effectively. 

[CuddyDark]

Cam turned into 70% this year and they are losing. Let the running QB run and 55-57% is better than if he hits 60% and doesn't run.

[jrober38]

I'll agree. His overall accuracy isn't as bad as I expected, although he still has the random throw that he throws right into the turf which is weird.

 

Allen is very good at throwing the ball on a rope. If he's given the opportunity to let it rip, and he's throwing right at his target with no defender in the way, he's quite good.

 

On the flip side, any time he has to throw with touch he struggles. He can't naturally put air under the ball and drop it in a spot where his receiver can catch it. His deep balls are often inaccurate and he misses some easy throws where he can't just let it rip. Hopefully he works on those this offseason. 

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, CuddyDark said:

Cam turned into 70% this year and they are losing. Let the running QB run and 55-57% is better than if he hits 60% and doesn't run.

 

Now this is something I can agree with you about.

As long as Allen doesn't take big shots when he's running...let him run.

 

If he can develop and get more consistency in the pocket, he's a true dual threat.  I never saw Taylor or Mike Vick (outside of a year or two) as true dual threats because they really struggled in the pocket.  

Allen makes big throws right now from the pocket this early on....let the growth continue and we might have an elite QB.

[jrober38]

6 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Now this is something I can agree with you about.

As long as Allen doesn't take big shots when he's running...let him run.

 

If he can develop and get more consistency in the pocket, he's a true dual threat.  I never saw Taylor or Mike Vick (outside of a year or two) as true dual threats because they really struggled in the pocket.  

Allen makes big throws right now from the pocket this early on....let the growth continue and we might have an elite QB.

 

This isn't really true. Pretty much all of Allen's big plays are from outside the pocket. 

 

He makes some throws inside the pocket, but more often than not he's looking to run and extend plays because he can create big plays running around and using his arm to throw fastballs as hard as he can down the field. 

 

Allen played well yesterday, and his running ability is unbelievable, but at some point he's going to start taking some big hits which will take a toll. Eventually he'll need to spend 80% of his time in the pocket, and right now I'm not sure it's 50-50.

Edited December 3, 2018 by jrober38

[CuddyDark]

2 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Now this is something I can agree with you about.

As long as Allen doesn't take big shots when he's running...let him run.

 

If he can develop and get more consistency in the pocket, he's a true dual threat.  I never saw Taylor or Mike Vick (outside of a year or two) as true dual threats because they really struggled in the pocket.  

Allen makes big throws right now from the pocket this early on....let the growth continue and we might have an elite QB.

If he's around 57% with 700+ rushing yards they'll win a lot of games the next couple of years. They have to change the offense completely though. No big lumbering possession receivers, he needs runners who can go all day, and a couple 6'6 TE and an athletic Center before anything else. You almost don't even need great tackles as much as you need athletes inside. Should be fun until teams get a blueprint on him...

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

This isn't really true. Pretty much all of Allen's big plays are from outside the pocket. 

 

He makes some throws inside the pocket, but more often than not he's looking to run and extend plays because he can create big plays running around and using his arm to throw fastballs as hard as he can down the field. 

 

Allen played well yesterday, and his running ability is unbelievable, but at some point he's going to start taking some big hits which will take a toll. At some point he'll need to spend 80% of his time in the pocket, and right now I'm not sure it's 50-50.

He's a big man. Country strong. I have no problem with his running or the DB and LBers trying to hit him. Unless it's a dirty knee shot they should bounce off him. He's 22. Let him run for his rookie contract.

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, CuddyDark said:

If he's around 57% with 700+ rushing yards they'll win a lot of games the next couple of years. They have to change the offense completely though. No big lumbering possession receivers, he needs runners who can go all day, and a couple 6'6 TE and an athletic Center before anything else. You almost don't even need great tackles as much as you need athletes inside. Should be fun until teams get a blueprint on him...

 

The blueprint is there. For whatever reason teams just aren't utilizing it.

 

Eventually people are going to figure out to stop a player like Allen, you need to rush 3 with a Spy, and drop the other 7 guys into zone coverage so they can keep their eyes on him in case he tries to run. 

 

Same as Tyrod. Make him be a quarterback, and eliminate his ability to escape the pocket, roll to his right and make big plays down the field. 

 

He's such an amazing runner that might now happen, but that's what I'd be doing if I was an opposing DC. Forget trying to sack him, just keep him in the pocket and make him beat you with his arm. 

4 minutes ago, CuddyDark said:

He's a big man. Country strong. I have no problem with his running or the DB and LBers trying to hit him. Unless it's a dirty knee shot they should bounce off him. He's 22. Let him run for his rookie contract.

 

He's the same size as Cam Newton, and after a while even he started getting banged up from the hits. Broken ribs, concussions, etc. 

 

You can't run as a QB as much as Newton did early in his career and Allen is now and expect to stay healthy. 

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

This isn't really true. Pretty much all of Allen's big plays are from outside the pocket. 

 

He makes some throws inside the pocket, but more often than not he's looking to run and extend plays because he can create big plays running around and using his arm to throw fastballs as hard as he can down the field. 

 

Allen played well yesterday, and his running ability is unbelievable, but at some point he's going to start taking some big hits which will take a toll. At some point he'll need to spend 80% of his time in the pocket, and right now I'm not sure it's 50-50.

 

I didn't say he makes all or most or half of his plays from inside the pocket.  I said he makes big throws from the pocket which he has.  He's not even played half a season yet and he's better in the pocket than I thought he was.

I do want him to make more plays in the pocket but he will have to grow into that which I think he's progressing the right way.  
If he doesn't take the big shots, I'm comfortable with him running.  Having a spy on him (in which he has shown he can outrun) just opens up more in the passing game.