Josh Allen's progress

[thebandit27]

12 minutes ago, WhyteDwarf said:

 

iirc the stat was not for the game, but for the season...

 

Maybe I'm missing your point here...

 

Why bring Stafford into the discussion at all?  What does his 2018 completion percentage show in terms of benchmarking?

 

Not trying to be a jerk; I really don't understand what you're getting at with that statement.

 

Whereas when I look at a guy like Cam Newton, who won an MVP completing 59% of his passes, went 15-1, and took his team to the Super Bowl, and I can understand that comparison because he's a pretty strong comparable for Allen in terms of arm strength, athleticism, and accuracy.

 

It's also worth noting that rookies often have low completion percentages.  Look who's in the bottom-5 this year for qualified passers: Rosen, Darnold, Jackson, and Allen.  No surprise.  Andrew Luck was a 54% passer as a rookie.

Edited December 17, 2018 by thebandit27

[WhyteDwarf]

Just now, thebandit27 said:

Whereas when I look at a guy like Cam Newton, who won an MVP completing 59% of his passes, went 15-1, and took his team to the Super Bowl, and I can understand that comparison because he's a pretty strong comparable for Allen in terms of arm strength, athleticism, and accuracy.

 

I'm not sure the Lions ever had a D like the Panthers did.  But not sure, can't say I ever follow the Lions... 

[thebandit27]

4 minutes ago, WhyteDwarf said:

 

I'm not sure the Lions ever had a D like the Panthers did.  But not sure, can't say I ever follow the Lions... 

 

Well, they did have the #3 scoring defense and #2 yardage defense in 2014, but again, I'm not sure I'm understanding your point with regard to Stafford.

 

But hey, sometimes I miss things, especially on Mondays.

[WhyteDwarf]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Well, they did have the #3 scoring defense and #2 yardage defense in 2014, but again, I'm not sure I'm understanding your point with regard to Stafford.

 

But hey, sometimes I miss things, especially on Mondays.

 

I guess the moral of the story is 50% completion isn't going to get it done long term (I don't believe it ever has in the NFL season after season, could be wrong though).  What combination of completion% plus Allen's running plus D will?  No idea, but 60%+ ideally is where you want your QB to be IMO.

[BillnutinHouston]

Just now, WhyteDwarf said:

No idea, but 60%+ ideally is where you want your QB to be IMO.

 

With all the drops these WRs have, better receivers alone would bump his completion % by 5%.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[WhyteDwarf]

6 minutes ago, BillnutinHouston said:

 

With all the drops these WRs have, better receivers alone would bump his completion % by 5%.

 

Still a ways to go to get to reliability.  Sure hope he's better than 50% next season!

Edited December 17, 2018 by WhyteDwarf

[racketmaster]

13 minutes ago, WhyteDwarf said:

 

I guess the moral of the story is 50% completion isn't going to get it done long term (I don't believe it ever has in the NFL season after season, could be wrong though).  What combination of completion% plus Allen's running plus D will?  No idea, but 60%+ ideally is where you want your QB to be IMO.

Cam Newton has spent the majority of his career as a sub 60% passer until this year. He now throws a ton of dump off passes to McCaffery and bubble screens to Moore and Samuels to elevate his completion percentage. But Newton was still effective prior to this year as he has a strong arm and could make big plays down the field in the passing game. He is also a running threat. No two players are exactly alike, but there are some significant similarities to Allen and Newton. Allen getting more comfortable as a passer and additional weapons that catch better will up the percentage some. But he is a big play passer and that's just what he is. If the Bills felt completion percentage was necessary for his success, they could have him throw a bunch of dink and dunk passes like so many other qbs around the league do on a week to week basis. But when those same qbs need to make a play on 3rd and 15, they check it down and punt.

Edited December 17, 2018 by racketmaster

[Ramza86]

13 minutes ago, WhyteDwarf said:

 

I guess the moral of the story is 50% completion isn't going to get it done long term (I don't believe it ever has in the NFL season after season, could be wrong though).  What combination of completion% plus Allen's running plus D will?  No idea, but 60%+ ideally is where you want your QB to be IMO.

 

You really cant put a % on whats good or not good for a QB.

 

Its the effectiveness/importance of the throws that matter.

Edited December 17, 2018 by Ramza86

[WhyteDwarf]

Just now, racketmaster said:

Cam Newton has spent the majority of his career as a sub 60% passer until this year. He now throws a ton of dump off passes to McCaffery and bubble screens to Moore and Samuels to elevate his completion percentage. But Newton was still effective prior to this year as he has a strong arm and could make big plays down the field in the passing game. He is also a running threat. No two players are exactly alike, but there are some significant similarities to Allen and Newton. Allen getting more comfortable as a passer and additional weapons that catch better will up the percentage some. But he is a big play passer and that's just what he is. If the Bills felt completion percentage was necessary for his success, they could have him thro a bunch of dink and dunk passes like so many other qbs around the league do on a week to week basis. But when those same qbs need to make a play on 3rd and 15, they check it down and punt.

 

I can't say I follow the Panthers very much, but it seems to me they have had many more failed seasons with Newton as QB vs. successful seasons.

[racketmaster]

Just now, WhyteDwarf said:

 

I can't say I follow the Panthers very much, but it seems to me they have had many more failed seasons with Newton as QB vs. successful seasons.

They have been very competitive most years and even made the SB a few years back. They play in an extremely competitive division as well with Atlanta and New Orleans being good teams most years. Although they have similarities, I think Allen will become a better pure passer than Newton and will never be the same type of running threat. But most fans and analysts believe Newton is a franchise guy, so if Allen tops out at his level that is still a player you can win with in this league.

[Albany,n.y.]

9 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

More proof that QB ratings, whether they are the traditional ones or QBRs are trash.  You can't take QB play and reduce it to a number.  There are so many factors that can only be accounted for by watching the game.  Josh Allen's play translates a lot better on film than any QB rating system number. 

[PaattMaann]

Man I don't know how anyone can watch Josh Allen now vs his first couple starts and not see LOADS OF PROGRESS. 

 

I am beyond impressed with this young man. I thought I might see some things he is doing now, next year, when he is supposed to be getting really better (with a real offensive line/receivers/running game, a year of experience, a full offseason to learn and understand and improve). What he has been able to accomplish in just 9 starts is damn impressive. Cutting down on mistakes, taking what the D is giving him (this means more than just dumping off to a check down) and taking shots. I know this can be said for almost every QB in every game, but on the long PI call (50 yards) and the Deonte Thompson drop (50 yards plus) and the boy threw for over 300 yards yesterday. 

 

Improving accuracy every week. The stats likely won't always reflect that because, as mentioned in this thread already, he isnt the type of QB and we don't run the type of offense that will generate 70% completion, but he has become a much more accurate QB in just a few starts. You see it with his body positioning on short throws. A couple nice touch passes yesterday, and some obvious darts through tight windows. 

 

Here's hoping this continues in his last two starts this year.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

The Buffalo Bills topped the Detroit Lions in Week 15 of the 2018 season, 14-13. The scoreline should be the most irrelevant thing remembered from this one.

 

The game marked a trademark win for the Bills and their rookie quarterback, Josh Allen. It won’t go down in any history books, but it was noteworthy.

[elroy16]

3 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

 

I don’t think he was told to throw first and keep the running down - I believe that is what the Lions defense dictated.

 

The Lions were running their version of the NE/NYJ defense used against Tyrod - slow rush from the edges - pressure the middle - keep a LB/safety near the middle to spy.  It was designed to try and minimize escape lanes and prevent him from running and make him beat you from the pocket.

 

The difference is Allen did just that - he made the plays with his arm from the pocket to win.  A little help from his own receivers or a PI call for Zay when he tried coming back for the ball and his numbers look better and they force the defense to react - maybe opening those lanes back up.

 

 

That no-call pissed me off. Definitely should have been holding with the way they're calling games these days. Tre got called for holding on less than that earlier in the game.

 

The Lions did a good job of containing Allen's running, but that was a big part of why he had so much time in the pocket for once. He did a good job going through his reads and making solid decisions for most of the game. He bailed a time or two that I remember and wasn't perfect on some throws, but overall I was happy. A few tough catches by WR's and his numbers look a lot better.

 

I love watching him develop. Someone mentioned that with Allen, they actual feel like they can pick up 3rd and longs. It's so true and it's so refreshing. They're actually picking up chunk plays, something we haven't seen consistently (or hardly at all) for a long time. 

 

 

Foster and McKenzie could make an interesting combo next year. Zay could fit well enough as a short/intermediate receiver if they can find one more solid WR that can help stretch the field. Croom looks like a keeper, otherwise the TE position needs an overhaul. 

 

 

Damn is this going to be a long offseason. 

[CincyBillsFan]

25 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

Man I don't know how anyone can watch Josh Allen now vs his first couple starts and not see LOADS OF PROGRESS. 

 

I am beyond impressed with this young man. I thought I might see some things he is doing now, next year, when he is supposed to be getting really better (with a real offensive line/receivers/running game, a year of experience, a full offseason to learn and understand and improve). What he has been able to accomplish in just 9 starts is damn impressive. Cutting down on mistakes, taking what the D is giving him (this means more than just dumping off to a check down) and taking shots. I know this can be said for almost every QB in every game, but on the long PI call (50 yards) and the Deonte Thompson drop (50 yards plus) and the boy threw for over 300 yards yesterday. 

 

Improving accuracy every week. The stats likely won't always reflect that because, as mentioned in this thread already, he isnt the type of QB and we don't run the type of offense that will generate 70% completion, but he has become a much more accurate QB in just a few starts. You see it with his body positioning on short throws. A couple nice touch passes yesterday, and some obvious darts through tight windows. 

 

Here's hoping this continues in his last two starts this year.

 

And lets not forget that he didn't take a whole lot of snaps with the first team offense during training camp and in the preseason games.  I get that the "plan" was for him to sit and probably not make an appearance until after the bye but circumstances didn't allow that.  Still, his performance in the absence of a full preseason with the first team O has been all the more impressive. 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[transplantbillsfan]

 

[26CornerBlitz]

Josh Allen Week 15 Chart

 

 

 

[dakrider]

oh well Stafford was almost 76% and no interceptions!  Lions must have just had their way with the Bills here and Allen only 50% must have had a terrible day!  
 

M. Stafford PASSING    
CP/ATT    YDS    TD    INT
22/29       208    1       0

J. Allen PASSING    
CP/ATT    YDS    TD    INT
13/26       204     1      0    1 Rush TD
 

But lets look here, I show about 11 of his passes were for 5 yards or less, of which at least 3 of them were on 3rd and long that they didn't get the first down.  

For this game, Stafford was either getting big pass plays from Golladay or throwing little dink passes.  If your offense is geared to simply hit the 5 yard pass you can do that but it requires great execution on about every play and it doesn't lend itself well to missed plays or penalties.  If the Bills tried to simply play this offense they would have lost this game but Allen would have had better stats!