Bills Have Easiest Schedule Left in the NFL (Predict Record)

[BigDingus]

Quick Edit: Just trying to gauge what people believe our W/L record will be for the next 6 games only (poll added)

 

So to start the year off we had the most difficult strength of schedule, but now with only 6 games remaining we have the easiest one. 

We've got:

Home vs the Jaguars (3-7)

Away vs the Dolphins (5-5)

Home vs the Jets (3-7)

Home vs the Lions (4-7)

Away vs the Patriots (7-3)

Home vs the Dolphins (5-5)

 

So 4 home games, and only 1 game against a team with a winning record. Would've been nice to start the season this way to build some momentum, or to avoid all these late home games where fans don't want to sit out in the cold to watch a team that's not competing for anything... 

Anyway, how do you guys see us closing out the season? Obviously their most important goal is to develop Josh Allen into a capable starter at the very least, so getting him reps will be the priority. I know some people don't want us to win any more games, but what do you actually predict the Bills' record will be through just these 6 games?

I see them going 2-4, possibly 3-3. It would be very Bills-like to win a couple more games when it doesn't matter, and none of these teams are very good outside the Pats. Then again, Allen can't play like he was before getting injured, as that offense was miserable to watch. Here's hoping whatever happens it'll at least be entertaining.

Edited November 24, 2018 by BigDingus

[BillsFan130]

It really depends IMO.

 

I don’t need to see them win 13-10 against lousy teams.

 

But if Allen progresses and the offence looks promising, then that would be very encouraging going into next season

[transplantbillsfan]

7-9.

 

I really wish I could be the optimist.

 

But we don't beat the Patriots and we drop another... probably the Dolphins in Miami.

 

Too bad McBeane screwed up the QB position so bad to start the season.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

9-7 !!!

 

 

[billsfan1959]

6 hours ago, BigDingus said:

I see them going 2-4, possibly 3-3. It would be very Bills-like to win a couple more games when it doesn't matter, and none of these teams are very good outside the Pats. Then again, Allen can't play like he was before getting injured, as that offense was miserable to watch. Here's hoping whatever happens it'll at least be entertaining.

It wasn't just Allen who contributed to that miserable offense; however, he definitely needs to show improvement in understanding what he is seeing pre and post snap, trusting his protection when it is there, being more decisive in his throws, and sustaining drives. He played in six games at the beginning of the year: 4 against defenses ranked in the top 11 (DVOA), 1 ranked 15th, and 1 ranked 20th. It has been five weeks since the last time he played. I think we will see that improvement; although, he is facing a very good Jacksonville defense (6th in DVOA), so, he may struggle initially getting back on the field.

 

If (1) they can spread that Jacksonville defense by utilizing some of this speed they have begun inserting with Allen hitting several intermediate to long  throws early, (2) the line can open some holes for the running game and create some opportunities for play action (which is actually one of Allen's strengths), and (3) the pass protection is adequate, then I think we will see some of that improvement from Allen in this week - but, Jacksonville is capable of playing very good defense and I expect it will be a tough, first game back.

 

Regardless, I do believe we will see improvement from him over these next six games. I see them finishing the year strong and going 4-2, with much better play, offensively from Allen and others.

Edited November 24, 2018 by billsfan1959

[billsfan1959]

To the OP: one might agree with the win total, but not the sentiment you attached to it. For example, they could go 3-3 and actually look impressive in their play. Or, one might think they will finish 1-5, but not feel that wins hurt more than they help.

Edited November 24, 2018 by billsfan1959

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

As long as the offense comes alive and shows hope for next year then I'm ok. I'm thinking a Billsy 3-3 finish puts us at 6-10 just enough to draft 8-11and miss out on some elite talent.  But if Allen is the franchise QB I can live with that.  A sad part of me wants to see what Barkley can do if Allen sucks it up. We need to keep him around for the next few years as QB#2 or better.

[BigDingus]

20 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

It wasn't just Allen who contributed to that miserable offense; however, he definitely needs to show improvement in understanding what he is seeing pre and post snap, trusting his protection when it is there, being more decisive in his throws, and sustaining drives. He played in six games at the beginning of the year: 4 against defenses ranked in the top 11 (DVOA), 1 ranked 15th, and 1 ranked 20th. It has been five weeks since the last time he played. I think we will see that improvement; although, he is facing a very good Jacksonville defense (6th in DVOA), so, he may struggle initially getting back on the field.

 

If (1) they can spread that Jacksonville defense by utilizing some of this speed they have started begun inserting with Allen hitting several intermediate to long  throws early, (2) the line can open some holes for the running game and create some opportunities for play action (which is actually one of Allen's strengths), and (3) the pass protection is adequate, then I think we will see some of that improvement from Allen in this week - but, Jacksonville is capable of playing very good defense and I expect it will be a tough, first game back.

 

Regardless, I do believe we will see improvement from him over these next six games. I see them finishing the year strong and going 4-2, with much better play, offensively from Allen and others.

 

All-22, PFF & many other analytics actually showed Allen was actually holding back our already weak WR corps. Even though they lack talent, Allen would've needed to get up to their level first before he could be held back by them.

We've seen the offense look better under anyone not named Peterman than it did with Allen. Aside from turnovers, even our weak skill position groups were far more effective without Allen on the field. Even our O-line (a unit I despised & ranted on MANY times before this season began) weren't the cause of most of his sacks or hits, as that was detailed game after game.

Allen was failing at pre-snap reads, failing to recognize blitzes, and failing to recognize coverage schemes. Allen leads the league in time to throw the ball, and hangs on far too long which results in getting sacked - https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#average-time-to-throw

Even with all that time, he still only has a 54.0 completion percentage, something that he's carried over from JUCO & College to the NFL (ranked dead last out of all qualified QB's) -https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#completion-percentage   

Even though he only averages just under 6 yards per attempt, he still can't get the ball to WR's. I'm not saying he'll never be good, but statistically he's been awful. And if it weren't for the fluke Vikings game, it'd be an abysmal rookie season. We had an awful passing game with TT the past several years, often ranked 31st or 32nd in the league. Now imagine our dead last ranked passing offense from 2017, and subtract 25% more production. THAT is where we're at now when Allen plays.

It wouldn't be a big deal if we were competitive in games, or if he showed he was improving week to week. It wouldn't matter as much if he turned the ball over had he also been chunking up TD after TD. It would be encouraging, even in losses, to see Allen hang 300 yards on an opponent once in a blue moon (as opposed to less than 100 yards in back to back games). 

These aren't traditionally slow-start rookie QB numbers, and this isn't 1980 either. The game is tailor made for QB's and the passing game, and having thrown for only 45 yards or 69 yards going into the 4th quarter shows you're nowhere close to being an even semi-competent starter yet. I'm sorry, not trying to be mean, I seriously want him to be a badass, but he's been exactly what he's always been, and he's proved every pre-draft knock on him correct thus far. I hope that'll change, I really do.
 

[billsfan1959]

3 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

 

All-22, PFF & many other analytics actually showed Allen was actually holding back our already weak WR corps. Even though they lack talent, Allen would've needed to get up to their level first before he could be held back by them.

We've seen the offense look better under anyone not named Peterman than it did with Allen. Aside from turnovers, even our weak skill position groups were far more effective without Allen on the field. Even our O-line (a unit I despised & ranted on MANY times before this season began) weren't the cause of most of his sacks or hits, as that was detailed game after game.

Allen was failing at pre-snap reads, failing to recognize blitzes, and failing to recognize coverage schemes. Allen leads the league in time to throw the ball, and hangs on far too long which results in getting sacked - https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#average-time-to-throw

Even with all that time, he still only has a 54.0 completion percentage, something that he's carried over from JUCO & College to the NFL (ranked dead last out of all qualified QB's) -https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#completion-percentage   

Even though he only averages just under 6 yards per attempt, he still can't get the ball to WR's. I'm not saying he'll never be good, but statistically he's been awful. And if it weren't for the fluke Vikings game, it'd be an abysmal rookie season. We had an awful passing game with TT the past several years, often ranked 31st or 32nd in the league. Now imagine our dead last ranked passing offense from 2017, and subtract 25% more production. THAT is where we're at now when Allen plays.

It wouldn't be a big deal if we were competitive in games, or if he showed he was improving week to week. It wouldn't matter as much if he turned the ball over had he also been chunking up TD after TD. It would be encouraging, even in losses, to see Allen hang 300 yards on an opponent once in a blue moon (as opposed to less than 100 yards in back to back games). 

These aren't traditionally slow-start rookie QB numbers, and this isn't 1980 either. The game is tailor made for QB's and the passing game, and having thrown for only 45 yards or 69 yards going into the 4th quarter shows you're nowhere close to being an even semi-competent starter yet. I'm sorry, not trying to be mean, I seriously want him to be a badass, but he's been exactly what he's always been, and he's proved every pre-draft knock on him correct thus far. I hope that'll change, I really do.
 

Apparently Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold didn't get the memo of the game being tailor made for them, as their stats and play have been similar to Allen. If you haven't seen that, then you haven't been watching them. Allen has played like most rookies on bad offensive teams (hello Jared Goff and others). He struggled a great deal; however, it wasn't just him. The offense has had two good games this season against the Vikings and Jets. I love how Allen's performance was a fluke (even without the 100+ yards and 2 TDs dropped by receivers in that game), yet Barkley's performance was not, even though his entire NFL history says otherwise.

 

I have no idea how good or bad Josh Allen will be; however, this idea that he has somehow been drastically worse than what we typically see with rookie QBs on bad offensive teams is, IMO, ridiculous. 

 

I guess we will see.

 

[frostbitmic]

Certain wins - J-E-T-S JESTS JESTS JESTS

Likely wins - Home vs Lions and home vs Dolphish

Toss up - Jaguars

Likely loss - in Miami

Certain loss - patriots

 

6-10 is my guess

[LABILLBACKER]

4 hours ago, BillsRdue said:

As long as the offense comes alive and shows hope for next year then I'm ok. I'm thinking a Billsy 3-3 finish puts us at 6-10 just enough to draft 8-11and miss out on some elite talent.  But if Allen is the franchise QB I can live with that.  A sad part of me wants to see what Barkley can do if Allen sucks it up. We need to keep him around for the next few years as QB#2 or better.

Agree with everything.  I find Barkley's future with Buffalo very intriguing. I see us going 4-2 and showing some mild improvements on offense. I love Allen's enthusiasm and leadership qualities but still doubt his accuracy above 56%. If he can ever get to 60+ this team will take off....

[LTF]

1 minute ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Agree with everything.  I find Barkley's future with Buffalo very intriguing. I see us going 4-2 and showing some mild improvements on offense. I love Allen's enthusiasm and leadership qualities but still doubt his accuracy above 56%. If he can ever get to 60+ this team will take off....

 

You need receivers to have a high completion percentage. It is not easy to complete a ton of passes with receivers that can't get real separation. Hopefully they just sit Benjamin the rest of the year.  He can't get separation and he drops passes.

[GoBills808]

4 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

Apparently Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold didn't get the memo of the game being tailor made for them, as their stats and play have been similar to Allen. If you haven't seen that, then you haven't been watching them. Allen has played like most rookies on bad offensive teams (hello Jared Goff and others). He struggled a great deal; however, it wasn't just him. The offense has had two good games this season against the Vikings and Jets. I love how Allen's performance was a fluke (even without the 100+ yards and 2 TDs dropped by receivers in that game), yet Barkley's performance was not, even though his entire NFL history says otherwise.

 

I have no idea how good or bad Josh Allen will be; however, this idea that he has somehow been drastically worse than what we typically see with rookie QBs on bad offensive teams is, IMO, ridiculous. 

 

I guess we will see.

 

Good post.

[The Frankish Reich]

2 hours ago, frostbitmic said:

Certain wins - J-E-T-S JESTS JESTS JESTS

Likely wins - Home vs Lions and home vs Dolphish

Toss up - Jaguars

Likely loss - in Miami

Certain loss - patriots

 

6-10 is my guess

This makes sense, and it would be my best guess. Miami: a lot depends on whether Tannehill is reasonably healthy and plays. He's not that good, but ... Adam Gase's offense depends as heavily on his presence as any any other offense in the NFL depends on its starting QB. In the Gase Era the Phins are 11-7 with Tannehill starting; 10-14 without him.

[billsredneck1]

12 hours ago, BigDingus said:

Obviously their most important goal is to develop Josh Allen

i still don't get it.  throw him back in there against the most punishing defense in the league?....with the season on the line and 5 more games for which to get him reps.

 

i just hope he doesn't get killed.  those corners and safeties are gonna blitz like crazy. i hope he doesn't get killed. i will however say, i was wrong going into the jets game

and was happy with the outcome so maybe i'm wrong again. i sure hope so.

 

daboll better have a plan. 

 

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

3 hours ago, frostbitmic said:

Certain wins - J-E-T-S JESTS JESTS JESTS

Likely wins - Home vs Lions and home vs Dolphish

Toss up - Jaguars

Likely loss - in Miami

Certain loss - patriots

 

6-10 is my guess

 

...reasonable assessment and fair enough bud.....stretch to 7-9 as a bonus and look to 2019 with ten picks and FA $$$.......this gang better hit a 450 ft HR with that booty........same position next year at this time won't work IMO...........

[NewEra]

4-2 or 3-3 the rest of the way.  We’ll definitely win the game in Miami now that I’ve cancelled my trip.  

[HomeskillitMoorman]

I would say maybe 3-3. Allen's going to have his ups and downs, and the bare cupboard that Beane and McDermott have provided on that side of the ball doesn't help that. 

[RochesterRob]

13 hours ago, BigDingus said:

Quick Edit: Just trying to gauge what people believe our W/L record will be for the next 6 games only (poll added)

 

So to start the year off we had the most difficult strength of schedule, but now with only 6 games remaining we have the easiest one. 

We've got:

Home vs the Jaguars (3-7)

Away vs the Dolphins (5-5)

Home vs the Jets (3-7)

Home vs the Lions (4-7)

Away vs the Patriots (7-3)

Home vs the Dolphins (5-5)

 

So 4 home games, and only 1 game against a team with a winning record. Would've been nice to start the season this way to build some momentum, or to avoid all these late home games where fans don't want to sit out in the cold to watch a team that's not competing for anything... 

Anyway, how do you guys see us closing out the season? Obviously their most important goal is to develop Josh Allen into a capable starter at the very least, so getting him reps will be the priority. I know some people don't want us to win any more games, but what do you actually predict the Bills' record will be through just these 6 games?

I see them going 2-4, possibly 3-3. It would be very Bills-like to win a couple more games when it doesn't matter, and none of these teams are very good outside the Pats. Then again, Allen can't play like he was before getting injured, as that offense was miserable to watch. Here's hoping whatever happens it'll at least be entertaining.

  I want wins.  Good teams seem to find useful if not impactful players outside of the top 10 in the draft.  

[buffalobloodfloridahome]

I thinks it is rather humorous that Barkley has one of the best statistical games we have seen out of a QB in a while and now has to sit on the bench and watch a rookie flounder and improvise and throw the occasional bomb that wows the crowd. I hope I am wrong and Allen sitting and watching while injured somehow sparks him to be better.