The Senator Posted November 23, 2018 Posted November 23, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 6:43 AM, Ridgewaycynic2013 said: I might start some heirloom tomatoes from seed this year. ? That will require s lot of gardening...
LTF Posted November 23, 2018 Posted November 23, 2018 (edited) I like the Bills to finish 8-8 and think they will get the tie-breakers and make the playoffs. That is how my simulator worked out. Week 16 Redskins vs Titans and Week 17 Titans vs Colts are the key games in my simulator. If the offense comes together over the next 6 weeks and the defense continues to play well, I think the Bills will likely be headed back to Gillette stadium for round 3 with the Patriots. Third times a charm. Edited November 23, 2018 by LTF
billspro Posted November 23, 2018 Posted November 23, 2018 There is a good chance the Colts win the AFC South, we are not getting in at 8-8. Small chance if we go 9-7. 32 minutes ago, LTF said: I like the Bills to finish 8-8 and think they will get the tie-breakers and make the playoffs. That is how my simulator worked out. Week 16 Redskins vs Titans and Week 17 Titans vs Colts are the key games in my simulator. If the offense comes together over the next 6 weeks and the defense continues to play well, I think the Bills will likely be headed back to Gillette stadium for round 3 with the Patriots. Third times a charm. The Colts were the best team we played from the AFC South. I think they will find a way to win the division. If you find a scenario where we get in at 8-8 with the Colts and Chargers at 10 wins I will listen.
LTF Posted November 23, 2018 Posted November 23, 2018 (edited) 45 minutes ago, billspro said: There is a good chance the Colts win the AFC South, we are not getting in at 8-8. Small chance if we go 9-7. The Colts were the best team we played from the AFC South. I think they will find a way to win the division. If you find a scenario where we get in at 8-8 with the Colts and Chargers at 10 wins I will listen. Here was my scenario with all games played through week 17. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#bal-oak-12=win&buf-jax-12=win&car-sea-12=loss&cin-cle-12=loss&nyj-ne-12=loss&phi-nyg-12=win&tb-sf-12=win&lac-ari-12=win&den-pit-12=loss&ind-mia-12=win&min-gb-12=win&hou-ten-12=win&dal-no-13=loss&atl-bal-13=win&cin-den-13=win&det-lar-13=loss&gb-ari-13=win&hou-cle-13=win&jax-ind-13=win&mia-buf-13=loss&nyg-chi-13=loss&tb-car-13=loss&oak-kc-13=loss&ten-nyj-13=win&ne-min-13=win&sea-sf-13=win&pit-lac-13=win&phi-was-13=win&sea-min-14=win&ten-jax-14=win&buf-nyj-14=win&cle-car-14=loss&gb-atl-14=win&hou-ind-14=win&kc-bal-14=win&mia-ne-14=loss&tb-no-14=loss&was-nyg-14=win&lac-cin-14=win&sf-den-14=win&ari-det-14=loss&dal-phi-14=win&oak-pit-14=loss&chi-lar-14=loss&kc-lac-15=win&nyj-hou-15=loss&den-cle-15=win&atl-ari-15=win&bal-tb-15=win&buf-det-15=win&chi-gb-15=win&cin-oak-15=win&ind-dal-15=win&jax-was-15=win&min-mia-15=win&nyg-ten-15=win&sf-sea-15=loss&pit-ne-15=win&lar-phi-15=win&car-no-15=loss&ten-was-16=loss&lac-bal-16=win&car-atl-16=loss&cle-cin-16=win&dal-tb-16=win&det-min-16=loss&ind-nyg-16=win&mia-jax-16=win&ne-buf-16=win&nyj-gb-16=loss&phi-hou-16=win&ari-lar-16=loss&sf-chi-16=loss&no-pit-16=win&sea-kc-16=loss&oak-den-16=win&bal-cle-17=loss&buf-mia-17=win&gb-det-17=win&hou-jax-17=win&kc-oak-17=win&min-chi-17=win&ne-nyj-17=win&no-car-17=win&nyg-dal-17=win&pit-cin-17=win&tb-atl-17=win&ten-ind-17=win&was-phi-17=win&den-lac-17=loss&lar-sf-17=win&sea-ari-17=win Chargers are in at the 5 seed. I have Bills at 8-8. 1 loss to Patriots. I have the Colts at 8-8. 3 losses on the road to Jacksonville, Houston, and Tennessee. I have the Titans 8-8. 3 losses to Texans, Redskins, and at Giants. Bills win 3 team tie-breaker. Rule 1 Division Tie-breaker goes to Titans over Colts via better Division record. Rule 2 Head to Head Bills beat Titans. Bills win 3 way tie-breaker. I have the Ravens at 7-9. I have the Bengals at 7-9. Edited November 23, 2018 by LTF
CodeMonkey Posted November 23, 2018 Posted November 23, 2018 (edited) On 11/22/2018 at 6:43 AM, Ridgewaycynic2013 said: I might start some heirloom tomatoes from seed this year. ? 2 hours ago, The Senator said: That will require s lot of gardening... Which requires a lot of fertilizer ... which is readily available here. Edited November 23, 2018 by CodeMonkey 1
row_33 Posted November 23, 2018 Posted November 23, 2018 38 minutes ago, frostbitmic said: playoff machine ... HAHAHAHAHA If the Bills win the next three I will look into this 1
frostbitmic Posted November 23, 2018 Posted November 23, 2018 The only place that 8-8 will get you in the playoffs this year is the NFC Least
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted November 23, 2018 Posted November 23, 2018 (edited) 3 hours ago, LTF said: Here was my scenario with all games played through week 17.... After wading through all that, I move we change your screen name from 'LTF' to 'WTF'. ? Edited November 24, 2018 by Ridgewaycynic2013 1 1
Thurman#1 Posted November 25, 2018 Posted November 25, 2018 (edited) On 11/24/2018 at 1:40 AM, billsfan11 said: Fair enough sir. The way I see it: If a QB, whether he is in his 1st, 3rd, or even 5th year can't handle adversity, and if he's not mentally tough to get over that adversity, then he isn't cut out for the NFL. I am not a believer in QBs getting ruined. Like would David Carr or Alex Smith be All Pros if they sat for a couple years behind Brett Favre? The guy either has what it takes and is mentally tough, or he isn't. Just the way I see it. All good though! Some people would agree with me, and some would agree with you. It isn't about mental toughness. Or more specifically, that's one component but quite a small part. And again, the NFL pretty much accepts that guys get ruined. Josh Allen himself has been quoted on this. It's not nearly as clear exactly what ruins guys, but it's pretty much accepted at this point that it happens. And it ain't toughness that's the big problem. It's about how difficult it is to very quickly master an immensely complex system. Which is why some guys are considered NFL-ready and others are considered projects. The project guys aren't less tough. They know less. They have a great deal more to learn. They often have mechanical changes which need to be made, and mechanical changes aren't made as easily when you're on the field trying to survive. Guys in that situation who reach the limit of what they know and get in trouble have an overwhelming likelihood to revert to what worked for them in the past in complicated situations of jeopardy. So if their mechanics were cleared up in college they're reverting to good habits. But if the mechanics have bad problems they're reverting to bad mechanics and bad habits. It's got nothing to do with toughness. It's far more about how humans learn and how they cope with adversity. The NFL is a spectacularly complex series of systems. Aaron Rodgers, as pointed out above, was bad for his first three years and then the light came on in his fourth training camp. That wasn't because he'd gotten tougher. It was because McCarthy had made major mechanical changes to his motion, because he's spent years in film rooms figuring out how NFL defences worked and how to counter their various strategies and had had time to work out not just the major outlines of what he had to do but to move on to the subtleties. And that's not even mentioning what McGinn talked about as far as he'd had crappy relations with other players but watching Favre handle the huddle taught him how improve himself. Brady was the fourth stringer for a lot of his first season. But by the beginning of the next season he was 2nd. Again, that wasn't because he'd gotten tougher. He had been able to understand the game better. He had a much better framework as far as understanding defences, offences and the rest of it. Handling adversity isn't the problem. Not having the tools to handle the complexity, that's where problems tend to develop. Some of that can't be developed, but plenty of it can. There's a reason that airlines have pilots spend thousands of hours of flight time, hundreds and hundreds of hours on simulators and as co-pilots before they get to pilot the plane. And flying an airline is far far less exacting and complicated than being an NFL QB. Some guys are ready to be NFL QBs, and others aren't. And some can be developed, ala Brady, Rodgers, Mahomet and Brees, though some will never have what it takes. But getting the correct scaffolding is huge. There's a lot of variety in how much people can learn, how well they learn and how each person learns. But even more there are things people have in common, limitations on learning, ways people learn better. And doing something immensely complex when you're not ready doesn't help you learn it. See you on the boards. Edited November 25, 2018 by Thurman#1
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