Bills Most Likely Playoff Chances Include AFC East Title And Home Playoff Game

[Gettysburg]

3 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

I'd imagine the odds are much lower, less than 1%.  2 of the games, Jax and Fish in Miami, the Bills will be underdog. so lets just say it's 1.25:1 against. So multiply that, now add i na factor for every other game you mention and that number drops real fast.

 

Actually just saw on one site not certain am interpreting correctly but lists them at .1% chance.  Another site give the m1/250 to win division which is even less.

 

The Bills are not losing to a Jacksonville team on a 6 game losing streak coming up to Orchard Park, especially a rested Bills team. That team will not even show up if it is under 32 degrees.  The Bills Defense will eat the Dolphins for lunch.  The Dolphins can't score, and I am confident if the Bills stick with the veteran they will. If they go with Allen, anything is possible, including a 9-3 loss.

 

Edited November 18, 2018 by Gettysburg

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

generally when you get a "new" member who just joined 2 hours ago that starts a thread such as this, is trolling the board big time looking for reactions.

 

I'll bite, troll.

 

thought I would do a little research on the bills chances to make the post season and found some interesting stuff. but I have to add that sitting at 3-7 they would have to literally win out .

 

winning out would give them the division and a certain playoff position?

 

funny thing is, in most of the sites the bills are not even listed as a possibility but understandable with what up to this point, aside from last week, has been a real ***** show.

 

------

 

 

Which NFL team with a losing record would you pick to make a run to the playoffs?

 

Spoiler: No one picked the Bills.

NFL PLAYOFFS   NFL   NFL PLAYOFF PICTURE

 

There could be more turnover in store for 2018. Buffalo has gone from surprise Wild Card to return to their post-Jim Kelly destiny as an AFC East doormat. Jacksonville’s epic defense has deflated as the Texans returned to the top of the AFC South. Even the defending champion Eagles have struggled, sitting at 4-5 and firmly outside the playoff picture through 10 weeks.

 

2018 NFL Playoff Picture: Here are the projected postseason chances for all 32 teams heading into Week 11

 

Here are the 12 teams we are projecting to make the playoffs, plus every team's chances of getting in

AFC Playoff Projection

 

Here's a list of all the other AFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Dolphins (11.6 percent), Jaguars (3.0 percent), Browns (1.6 pecent), Broncos (1.5 percent), Jets (0.2 percent), Raiders (0.1 percent), Bills (0.0 percent). 

 

I'll be honest, I don't know why the Raiders have slightly better playoff chances than the Bills, but I've learned not to question the computer anymore, so we're just going to roll with it. 

 

 

NFL playoff predictor: Every team's playoff chances entering Week 11

 

ALL BUT ELIMINATED: Cardinals, Giants, 49ers, Raiders, Jets, Bills, Browns
Playoff percentage: <1%

 

even the playoff predictor couldn't muster up a 1% chance?

 

my take, nothing is in stone, expert opinions, board opinions, nothing in stone but, those with even the slightest football knowledge and understanding of how to make the postseason knows the bills chances were pretty much squandered before the season even started. you don't go in to a season with the QB situation they had and believe they make the post season.

 

no, I don't see it. as much as they played like contenders last week, I believe a lot of that was driven by the panchos pep talk the night before the game and unless they can continue to use that motivation and win out, I still don't believe the cards will fall in their favor.

 

when was the last this team went on a 7 game winning streak?

 

answer: 1990 - Buffalo was unstoppable from Weeks 3 through 11, defeating the Patriots and Jets twice, as well as the Raiders and Broncos en route to the franchise's first Super Bowl appearance. 8 game win streak.

 

The NFL's Best Single-Season Win Streak by Team

 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/1990.htm

 

 

 

Edited November 18, 2018 by no name

[/dev/null]

 

[Gettysburg]

8 minutes ago, no name said:

generally when you get a "new" member who just joined 2 hours ago that starts a thread such as this, is trolling the board big time looking for reactions for such a far out there in left field type of thread.

 

I'll bite, troll.

 

 

 

 

Troll? I laid out a plausible scenario. I included a playoff calculator to verify the outcomes of my statements.  I firmly believe the Bills will win their next four games and the Pats will drop 3 of their next 4 games. This will set up the Bills at the Patriots in week 16 and that game will determine the winner of the division. 

 

What is so crazy about expecting the Bills to beat a bunch of bad football teams, with 3 of those games at home?

What is so crazy about expecting the Patriots to lose to the Vikings, Dolphins on the road, and Steelers on the Road?

 

I think the Bills Defense is the best unit in the AFC East. I think the Bills with Matt Barkely and added speed at the receiver position finally makes it a legitimate offense. I don't believe the Jets games was a fluke.

 

Edited November 18, 2018 by Gettysburg

[fansince88]

I like where the Bills win out and the Pats loose out better.

Edited November 18, 2018 by fansince88

[billsredneck1]

47 minutes ago, Gettysburg said:

 

Not true. What I am saying is the Bills chance of making the playoffs is highly improbably, but not as impossible as one would think. Therefore the Bills should still be trying to win games until they are officially eliminated. Benching a quarterback off a 41 point performance for a rookie just to get him experience is something you do only once you are eliminated from the playoffs. With how anemic the offense has been all year long, benching a quarterback off a 41 point performance is arguably the dumbest thing this team has done at quarterback. And they have done a lot of dumb things at quarterback.

not starting barkley against the jags would take the cake imo.  if i just judge my gut feelings, it's like...

 

barkley starting  = good feeling excited to get a win at home and schedule looks good. fingers crossed.

 

allen starting =  sick feeling/loss of hope...could very well go bad...no offense...season officially over.  will force myself to keep a sliver of hope, but those are my feelings.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

10 minutes ago, Gettysburg said:

 

Troll? I laid out a plausible scenario. I included a playoff calculator to verify the outcomes of my statements.  I firmly believe the Bills will win their next four games and the Pats will drop 3 of their next 4 games. This will set up the Bills at the Patriots in week 16 and that game will determine the winner of the division. 

 

did you read my post or only the  part  you quoted?

 

yes, it's trolling, but not a terrible troll job because no one, you, or I or anyone can say with absolute certainty they make it or don't.

 

but, had you read my full post you would of seen the scenarios would all have to fall in the bills favor and that's asking a lot of the football gods who have not been good to the buffalo bills.

 

 

Edited November 18, 2018 by no name

[Albwan]

Good thing I wasn't drinking milk when I read this.

[Gettysburg]

8 minutes ago, no name said:

 

did you you read my post or only the  part  you quoted?

 

yes, it's trolling, but not a terrible troll job because no one, you, or I or anyone can say with absolute certainty they make it or don't.

 

but, had you read my full post you would of seen the scenarios would all have to fall in the bills favor and that's asking the football gods who have not been good to the buffalo bills.

 

 

 

I wasn't taking objection to your post. I was annoyed by being called a troll.  I really believe the Bills vs Pats in week 16 will determine the AFC East winner. I think the Bills are the best team in the AFC East if they keep Barkley in at Quarterback. I think this division can be won with our defense and a competent offense. Teams with the number 1 defense in football should and usually are in the playoffs.

 

Edited November 18, 2018 by Gettysburg

[billsredneck1]

26 minutes ago, Gettysburg said:

 

I don't think the Patriots are that good. That is where we differ. I think they are headed towards a collapse. I really believe they will get beaten at home by the Vikings, lose on the road to the Dolphins (just like they got blown out by the Titans last week) and the wheels will completely come off in Pittsburgh. I think they are done.

 

 

The Bills have the number 1 defense in football. They finally have two NFL caliber quarterbacks.  They get Jacksonville who will likely have lost 6 in a row next week. They get a soft Dolphins team the next week.  They then get an atrocious Lions and atrocious Jets team at home. Is it really insane to predict they win the next 4?

 

The Pats just got blown out by the Titans. The Pats get the Jets, then they get a hot Vikings team that could get even hotter, a road game against a team similar to the Titans in the Dolphins, and then the red hot Steelers. Is it insane to think they lose three of those four games?

 

That happens and the Bills head to New England with the AFC East Championship on the line.

it is not insane at all....but it would really suck if that happened after we lost to the jags so josh could get all games for "development". 

 

having a staff that does not base decisions  with the goal of winning each game is a staff i will have absolutely no respect for.

 

 

 

 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

14 minutes ago, Gettysburg said:

 

The Bills are not losing to a Jacksonville team on a 6 game losing streak coming up to Orchard Park, especially a rested Bills team. That team will not even show up if it is under 32 degrees.  The Bills Defense will eat the Dolphins for lunch.  The Dolphins can't score, and I am confident if the Bills stick with the veteran they will. If they go with Allen, anything is possible, including a 9-3 loss.

 

 

Explain this to me, based on what you're saying how come Jax is a 7 point favorite?  Translate that to odds is probably close to 2:1

 

That's fine that you think all that's going to happen, but to say there's a 10% chance of this happening there's nothing to back it up.  As was pointed out probability is multiplied so very quickly goes downhill.  Many people here post things that are opinion that can't be verified either way, but when you say 10% chance, that's just not correct mathematically so what you are saying is absolutely beyond the shadow of a doubt WRONG!

[billsredneck1]

8 minutes ago, no name said:

 

did you you read my post or only the  part  you quoted?

 

yes, it's trolling, but not a terrible troll job because no one, you, or I or anyone can say with absolute certainty they make it or don't.

 

but, had you read my full post you would of seen the scenarios would all have to fall in the bills favor and that's asking the football gods who have not been good to the buffalo bills.

 

 

don't remember last year?

[cba fan]

3 hours ago, Gettysburg said:

 

These odds are probably about the same as the Bengals with minutes to go pulling out the win against the Ravens in week 17 last year.  They are not as crazy as one would think. I would say 10 percent chance of this scenario playing out. Beating the Patriots is the most difficult thing, but they would be on a 3 game losing streak and the Bills would be riding a 5 game winning streak. Not impossible.

1 minute ago, billsredneck1 said:

don't remember last year?

 

true, and yes, however, the odds of those long odds hitting two years in a row for a Bills team that wins the odds about every 18(I know the drought was technically 17) years are clearly "against all odds"

Edited November 18, 2018 by cba fan

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

1 minute ago, Gettysburg said:

I wasn't taking objection to your post. I was annoyed by being called a troll.  I really believe the Bills vs Pats in week 16 will determine the AFC East winner. I think the Bills are the best team in the AFC East if they keep Barkley in at Quarterback. I think this division can be won with our defense and a competent offense.

 

I can retract the troll accusation. you have to understand, coming out of no where, well, I guess you come from gettysburg, talking or basically believing they make the post season, is pretty crazy but crazier things have happened?

 

[Gettysburg]

1 minute ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Explain this to me, based on what you're saying how come Jax is a 7 point favorite?  Translate that to odds is probably close to 2:1

 

That's fine that you think all that's going to happen, but to say there's a 10% chance of this happening there's nothing to back it up.  As was pointed out probability is multiplied so very quickly goes downhill.  Many people here post things that are opinion that can't be verified either way, but when you say 10% chance, that's just not correct mathematically so what you are saying is absolutely beyond the shadow of a doubt WRONG!

 

Jacksonville will not be a 7 point favorite if Barkley starts. In fact if Jacksonville gets blown out today, the Bills will be favored if Barkley starts. The line is assuming the Bills are throwing a rookie against that defense. I think you will see the end of Jacksonville today. Six straight losses, out of playoff contention. They will pack it in. Just like the Jets.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

2 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said:

don't remember last year?

 

 

last year? 

 

if I thought like that, they would make the post season every year.

[Steptide]

As unlikely the scenario is that the op made, after last year anything is possible 

[PittsforDave]

As most of the perpetual gray clouds on this board would try to convince you that the season is over and we need to resign to the fact that this is a developmental year. 

 

Are you saying there is a chance to make the playoffs? 

 

We aren’t tanking the season?

 

Barkely must start. 

 

Coach much put us in our best position to play. He must Play our best players. 

 

Barkley must play. 

[billsfan1959]

4 minutes ago, PittsforDave said:

As most of the perpetual gray clouds on this board would try to convince you that the season is over and we need to resign to the fact that this is a developmental year. 

 

Are you saying there is a chance to make the playoffs? 

 

We aren’t tanking the season?

 

Barkely must start. 

 

Coach much put us in our best position to play. He must Play our best players. 

 

Barkley must play. 

This coming from the guy whose every other post is some variation of this organization sucks, this team sucks, Beane sucks, McDermott sucks, or Allen sucks....

 

#potcallskettleblack

Edited November 18, 2018 by billsfan1959

[dollars 2 donuts]

3 hours ago, Gettysburg said:

 

These odds are probably about the same as the Bengals with minutes to go pulling out the win against the Ravens in week 17 last year.  They are not as crazy as one would think. I would say 10 percent chance of this scenario playing out. Beating the Patriots is the most difficult thing, but they would be on a 3 game losing streak and the Bills would be riding a 5 game winning streak. Not impossible.

 

 

How many times has Tom Brady lost 5 out of six games in his career?

 

Since it has never happened before, then what are the odds?

Edited November 18, 2018 by dollars 2 donuts