JPP Posted November 18, 2018 Posted November 18, 2018 So lets see the only likely probability to get into the playoffs is to win the afce as 9-7 will most certainly not earn us a wildcard spot in the afc this season......so therefore we must run the table and new england pretty much has to lose on out from this point forward.......alrighty than......
Central PA Bills Fan Posted November 18, 2018 Posted November 18, 2018 So you are saying that there is a chance! That's all we can still ask for at this point. There are currently 10 other teams with the same amount of wins as us or less. Receiving one of the top draft picks seems about as probable as making the playoffs. So let's try to stay positive and hopefully we get on a role and our QB starts to show us what we want to see. 1
Gettysburg Posted November 18, 2018 Author Posted November 18, 2018 (edited) 10 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said: i've pointed this out a few times in other threads. this is why it would be derelict not to start barkley. if they start allen against the jags, they will stop shady and get after josh nonstop. we will most likely just go back to where we were 2 weeks ago. the season will officially be over and other than watching josh finish it out, it would be a huge kick in the nuts to the team and the fan base. barkley gives them the best chance for a win and it ain't even debatable. sending josh out there to take a beating and have the season lost at home is not the recipe for his.... "development". it could end up being quite the opposite. You are absolutely correct. The rule in the NFL is you start the quarterback who gives you the best chance to win until you are out of playoff contention. Matt Barkley right now gives the Bills a much better shot of winning than a rookie coming off an injury who has not played in a game in a month. Once the Bills are eliminated from the playoffs do whatever you want. They should have learned last year that you play to win until you are eliminated. Strange this can happen in the NFL. 7 minutes ago, JPP said: So lets see the only likely probability to get into the playoffs is to win the afce as 9-7 will most certainly not earn us a wildcard spot in the afc this season......so therefore we must run the table and new england pretty much has to lose on out from this point forward.......alrighty than...... New England doesn't have to lose out. They just need to lose to the Steelers, Vikings, Dolphins on the road, and that sets up the AFC East Title game in week 16 against the Bills. Nobody is saying they are going to lose to the Jets. Edited November 18, 2018 by Gettysburg
GottaRun Posted November 18, 2018 Posted November 18, 2018 Your Bills playoff analysis requires the pats to lose 3 in a row? I don't think that's happened since 2002. 1
uticaclub Posted November 18, 2018 Posted November 18, 2018 I've thought about this too. You have got to start Allen regardless. If Allen is the QB to win those games, that would be the best thing for his confidence and development. If Allen shows that the NFL is just too fast for him and that he can't complete average NFL throws, then finding another QB becomes a higher priority in the off season.
billsredneck1 Posted November 18, 2018 Posted November 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, driddles said: Your Bills playoff analysis requires the pats to lose 3 in a row? I don't think that's happened since 2002. but what if?... what if we send allen out there against the jags and it's a miserable offensive output...josh gets the snot knocked out of him...the season is over.... and the pats actually lose 3 in a row? 1
bobobonators Posted November 18, 2018 Posted November 18, 2018 9 minutes ago, Gettysburg said: You are absolutely correct. The rule in the NFL is you start the quarterback who gives you the best chance to win until you are out of playoff contention. Matt Barkley right now gives the Bills a much better shot of winning than a rookie coming off an injury who has not played in a game in a month. Once the Bills are eliminated from the playoffs do whatever you want. They should have learned last year that you play to win until you are eliminated. Strange this can happen in the NFL. New England doesn't have to lose out. They just need to lose to the Steelers, Vikings, Dolphins on the road, and that sets up the AFC East Title game in week 16 against the Bills. Nobody is saying they are going to lose to the Jets. Lol. I love the enthusiasm, but you have the pats losing 4 of their final 6 games. It’s hard even for bad teams - really bad teams - to lose 4 of 6 games. And you expect the Pats to do it? At the same time you have the Bills winning out. If what you propose was a parlay bet it would probably pay out $1,000,000 just by placing a $10 bet.
Gettysburg Posted November 18, 2018 Author Posted November 18, 2018 7 minutes ago, driddles said: Your Bills playoff analysis requires the pats to lose 3 in a row? I don't think that's happened since 2002. The Pats are not very good. I don't see them beating the Vikings. If they fall to the Dolphins on the road, I can easily see them getting blown out at Pittsburgh. The Dolphin game is only game I am worried about but they looked so bad on the road last week anything is possible. The Dolphins also aren't going to fold. They are in the hunt for now.
fridge Posted November 18, 2018 Posted November 18, 2018 1 hour ago, Gettysburg said: These odds are probably about the same as the Bengals with minutes to go pulling out the win against the Ravens in week 17 last year. They are not as crazy as one would think. I would say 10 percent chance of this scenario playing out. Beating the Patriots is the most difficult thing, but they would be on a 3 game losing streak and the Bills would be riding a 5 game winning streak. Not impossible. It's funny that you would say that there's a 10 percent chance because there's actually a 0.1% chance. See for yourself. 1
snafu Posted November 18, 2018 Posted November 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, fridge said: It's funny that you would say that there's a 10 percent chance because there's actually a 0.1% chance. See for yourself. The playoff SIMulator says 0.1% The OP's playoff STIMulator says 10%.
NoSaint Posted November 18, 2018 Posted November 18, 2018 38 minutes ago, Gettysburg said: What is so looney? You can't see the Bills winning against the Jaguars, Dolphins, Jets and Lions? You can't see the Patriots who were blown out last week losing to the Steelers, Vikings, and Dolphins on the road? You can't see the Bills going to New England on a 5 game winning streak and beating a reeling Patriots? Improbable. Yes. But certainly not "looney" as you say. To get to your math, you have to think each game has over 80% odds of happening how you predicted
JerseyBills Posted November 18, 2018 Posted November 18, 2018 1 hour ago, Gettysburg said: Before you blast this thread. The following is all that needs to happen. It is not as difficult as one would think. The Patriots beat the Jets, lose to the Vikings at Home, then the Steelers on the Road, and then the Dolphins on the Road. None of these are impossible. The Bills need to beat Jacksonville at home, the Dolphins on the Road, the Jets at Home, the Lions at Home. None of these are impossible. If those scenarios play out then.... The Bills (7-7) at Patriots (8-7) on December 26 would decide the winner of the AFC East as long as the Bills take care of business at home in week 17 against the Dolphins. Yes the Bills would win the tie-breaker with the Patriots based on division record. The 9-7 Bills would be 5-1 in the Division. The 9-7 Patriots would be 4-2. The Bills would be the AFC East Champions. Winning the AFC East would mean host a home playoff game. The Bills might want to ride Matt Barkley until they lose a game. Right now he gives the team the best chance to win. Is this likely. No. But it isn't as impossible as one would think. Check it out for yourself on the playoff simulator. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#buf-jax-12=win&nyj-ne-12=loss&mia-buf-13=loss&ne-min-13=loss&buf-nyj-14=win&mia-ne-14=win&buf-det-15=win&pit-ne-15=win&ne-buf-16=loss&buf-mia-17=win&ne-nyj-17=win Highly unlikely but like you said , not that unrealistic. I think the defense closes out the year ferociously if we can get a consistent offense going and stranger things have happened in this league. Good post! Stay optimistic my friend and let's gooooooooo Buffffffalllooooooo 1
Bakin Posted November 18, 2018 Posted November 18, 2018 1 hour ago, TroutDog said: How did you come up with the 10% number? If I were to hazard a guess at the possibility of this happening, I would say less than 1%. Sorry, the Bills are not going to the playoffs this year. You are probably right but you also probably said the same thing last year. Right up until week 17.
NoSaint Posted November 18, 2018 Posted November 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bakin said: You are probably right but you also probably said the same thing last year. Right up until week 17. Oh, because something unlikely happened last year it means there’s probably a good chance of repeating this year
Nick the Greek Posted November 18, 2018 Posted November 18, 2018 (edited) Winning 4 in a row would be difficult. But I love the positive attitude. Go Bills! Edited November 18, 2018 by Idandria
Gettysburg Posted November 18, 2018 Author Posted November 18, 2018 22 minutes ago, fridge said: It's funny that you would say that there's a 10 percent chance because there's actually a 0.1% chance. See for yourself. The computer right now says the Bills have a 1% chance of winning the division. I am saying it is 10%. Their algorithm is using past games where Derek Anderson and Nathan Peterman were quarterbacks to predict future outcomes. I am not. That is the difference.
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted November 18, 2018 Posted November 18, 2018 Somebody notify Greenspan. There's another case of 'irrational exuberance' going around. 1
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