Is Adrian Peterson an anomaly or could Shady play at a high level in his 30s?

[BigDingus]

 

6 hours ago, T master said:

Top backs in history that ran for 1000 yds after they turned 30 

 

Warrick Dunn - 05 & 06 - 30 & 31 yrs 

Franco Harris - 1983 - 32 yrs 

Ricky Waters - 1999 & 2000 - 30 & 31 yrs 

Fred Taylor - 06 & 07 - 30 & 31 yrs 

Curtis Martin - 03 & 04 - 30 & 31 yrs 

Tiki Barber - 05 & 06 - 30 & 31 yrs 

John Riggins - 1980-83-84 at 30-34&35 yrs

Emit Smith - 1999- 01 - at 30-31&32 yrs

Walter Payton - 1984-86 at 30-31&32 yrs

 

So i would think that shady could do some more damage al though this year might be a push seeing as they haven't been able to get him going to this point of the year but it is possible because Shady could be lumped into this group of backs as far as talent goes !! 

 

But you have to look at their years in the league as well.

*Warrick Dunn - 2005 was his 9th season, 2006 was his 10th season. Played 2 more years after that & had a large drop-off (1,140 yards in 2006 to 720 yards in 2007 & 786 in 2008)

 

*Franco Harris - 1983 was his 12th season, prior to that he hadn't had a 1,000 yard year since 1979. And in '83 he BARELY hit the mark, with 1,007 yards on a 3.6 YPC average....the lowest of his career until the his next (and final) season. Played 1 more year & had a MASSIVE drop-off (rushing for 170 yards).

 

*Ricky Watters - 1999 was his 9th season, and 2000 was his 10th season. Played 1 more year after that & again, HUGE drop-off (rushing for 318 yards).

 

*Fred Taylor - 2006 was his 9th season, and 2007 was his 10th season. Played 3 more years with big drop-off (556 yards, 269 yards, and 155 yards).

 

*Curtis Martin - 2003 was his 9th season, and 2004 was his 10th season. Played 1 more year (though he didn't retire until a year later), with huge drop-off (1,697 yards in 2004 to 735 yards in 2005).

 

*Tiki Barber - 2005 was his 9th season, and 2006 was his 10th season. Retired after his 10th season after following his 2 best career years having rushed for 1,860 yards & 1662 yards respectively.

 

*John Riggins - In 1980, Riggins didn't play, but in 1979 was in his 9th season, 1983 his 12th season, and 1984 his 13th season. In 1981 & 1982 he ran for only 714 & 553 yards, but had a resurgence in the following 2 years with 1,347 & 1239 rushing yards, but only averaging 3.6 & 3.8 YPC. Played 1 more year after that with a large drop-off again (677 yards). 

 

*Emmitt Smith - 1999-2001 was in his 10th, 11th and 12th seasons. Emmitt didn't have a massive drop-off until 2003 (his first of 2 years with the Cardinals), as injuries took their toll as they often do with these RB's. But he rebounded in 2004 for his final season to post a solid 937 yards in his 15th season, though it was on 3.5 YPC.

 

*Walter Payton - 1984-1986 was his 10th season, 11th & 12th seasons (same as Emmitt's). Played 1 more year & had a massive drop-off (went from 1,333 yards in '86 to 533 yards in '87). Also averaged went from averaging 4.2 YPC to 3.7 in his final year.



So in summary, most of these RB's hit their final high notes in their 9th and 10th seasons, with huge drop-offs in production after that. Some like Ricky Watters, Fred Taylor, Curtis Martin, and even Emmitt Smith suffered injuries after those seasons, ending their great run (with Emmitt however recovering & putting in 1 final strong season).

 

Others like  Riggins & Harris became volume rushers, simply eclipsing 1,000 yards due to the sheer amount of carries. Example: prior to Riggins 1983 & 1984 seasons when he rushed for 1,347 yards & 1,239 yards, he carried the ball 195 times in 1981 and 177 times in 1982. But in 1983 & 1984, he carried the ball 375 times & 327 times. That's a HUGE workload increase. Comparatively, Shady has only carried the ball 300 times twice in his career, in back to back years with Eagles in 2013 & 2014. Since being with the Bills, he's averaged 241 carries over 3 seasons, with only 111 carries so far this year. 

Shady's 8th season was 2016, rushing for 1,267 yards (5.4 YPC), and 9th season was 2017, where he rushed for 1,138 yards (4.0 YPC). Through 9 games he has 380 yards on 3.4 YPC in 2018, and is looking to hit a similar career path as the other RBs you listed. Year 10 is usually the next best season, but with our offense being what it is, it's understandable his numbers are so poor. He very well could have one last hoorah & rebound in 2019 if our O-line, QB and WR corps significantly improve, but that'll also be his 11th season, about the time injuries start really kicking in. 

And we know Shady isn't a bruising style back who will consistently hit 3-4 yards pounding the ball up the middle every play, so he won't pull a Riggins & just be fed 300+ carries. He could still be a productive back on controlled reps as one piece of a RB tandem, but next year will probably be his last shot at hitting 1,000 yards & being the featured back.

[JerseyBills]

8 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

AP is rather quietly having a great year at age 33 with the Redskins. And their OL is a mess. Shady just turned 30... I know most of us are casting him aside after this year or next, but does he have a couple more years in him given what we are seeing from AP or is he just a freak?

 

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/11/08/adrian-peterson-comeback-washington

Last week proved to the world Shady is still elite as they come. It almost looked like he gained a step! First game all year where he had a legit pass game the defense had to respect and he looked phenomenal.

 

Anyway, I've been saying since last year , the way he runs , ability to avoid big hits will prolong his career way further than the typical RB . Also , Reid,Kelly,Rex and M D have all praised his work ethic , so he's going to put in the work for sure. I think he has 2-3  years as a legit #1 and a cpl years as a very nice compliment. You rarely see him take the big shots that 95% of NFL RB take. Very smart out there , for example, he'll go out of bounds after a 1st down , versus taking on a S or LB for an extra yard or 2.  He's a rare talent.

[YoloinOhio]

1 hour ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

Really?

 

Why didn’t they trade him then?

 

I expect that he is in the plans for next year and might be running behind an upgraded line by then..

 

Anyway.. let’s see how he plays these last 6 games this season ..

Beane actually announced he was in the plans for next year. I realize that anything can change, but as of now it seems they want him back through his contract, at least. 

[JerseyBills]

1 hour ago, DallasBillsFan1 said:

Personally I'm done with Shady.  I would like to see him gone for 2019.  He's good, not great.  Can't hit the hole, dances a lot to the sidelines and often gets tackled behind the LOS.  I want a younger, downhill bruiser of a RB next year.  And all this after he had a good game against Jets against a good defense.  Let's move on already.  I suspect 1BD feels the same way.

Not ONE RB in this league would put up good numbers with the Pass game Shady played with. 8-9 in the box on a regular basis , with zero respect for the pass game. Last week , with a solid pass game , Shady looked electric. His cutting ability is still the best . That spin move was straight outta Madden. The TD run , he showed great speed to beat the S to the end zone. 

He's a leader, captain, loves this team and an ultimate gamer that hasn't lost 1/10th of a step. I feel the complete opposite. I want him on this team for at least 2 more years, he's a rare playmaker and deadly in the pass game too.

[Aussie Joe]

Unless he is really bad the rest of the season, I think he is brought back and given another year to show what he can do with a hopefully better Offense around him in 2019..

 

Yes, he will be overpaid next year, but with the amount of cap space available I think they will have plenty of dollars spare to overpay him a million or two.

 

Jury will be out for 2020 but I’m hoping that he shows enough next year to come back on a team friendly deal when we are all hoping that Allen has developed and they might be contending... Lots of water to pass under the bridge before that happens though..

 

[Formerly Allan in MD]

3 hours ago, DallasBillsFan1 said:

Personally I'm done with Shady.  I would like to see him gone for 2019.  He's good, not great.  Can't hit the hole, dances a lot to the sidelines and often gets tackled behind the LOS.  I want a younger, downhill bruiser of a RB next year.  And all this after he had a good game against Jets against a good defense.  Let's move on already.  I suspect 1BD feels the same way.

Hopefully, the OL will be much better next year and we'll have some flexibility about the types of runners we need.  If the line does not improve, which would be criminal, we won't need a runner like Shady.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

YO - great news. An add in a ‘spam’ email said there are insoles you can buy that will make you 9.3% more explosive of an athlete- 

 

1) it must be true 

 

2) if shady declines a bit he can buy a pair.....

 

BOOM, playin til 36

Edited November 17, 2018 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[NoSaint]

12 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

AP is rather quietly having a great year at age 33 with the Redskins. And their OL is a mess. Shady just turned 30... I know most of us are casting him aside after this year or next, but does he have a couple more years in him given what we are seeing from AP or is he just a freak?

 

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/11/08/adrian-peterson-comeback-washington

 

Im pretty sure that dude tore his ACL and recovered over a bye week and came back to rush for 1000 yards in the back half of the season with a fan from section 103 row 7 seat 12 at qb

 

hes a freak show even among the games all time elite. 

4 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

On this team, his career will be shortened.  Shady has a good amount left (2-3 prime years) but Buffalo doesn't have the personnel to showcase it.

 

3 prime years is a bold claim 

[Flip Johnson]

12 hours ago, HeHateMe said:

Shady looks a step slower this season, and his tendency to lose yardage even in his prime will only get worse as he continues to age.  

 

I love that type of TV analysis ... "he looks like he lost a step." 

 

The first game of the year where we throw the ball semi-effectively he runs for 110. Come on.

[DRA3196]

I think the reason shady looks a step slow is because he doesn't have confidence in the o-line. He, Ritchie, Wood, and Glenn had played a lot of games together and worked well together over a period of time. Throw in the fact that Glenn, Ritchie and Eric are gone along with  a new offense. a young QB and no threat at WR and it appears to me, shady  is trying to do to much. He still has a lot of tread on his tires and I think he can produce at a high level for maybe 2 additional seasons beyond this year. He has an amazing knack for making guys miss and for avoiding the big hit. I think he and ivory can be a great 1-2 punch for a couple more seasons. If we improve the o-line going forward

 

Edited November 17, 2018 by DRA3196

[Watching since 1964]

Going back a little further, the late HOF’er John Henry Johnson is another member of the over-30 club with 1000 yard seasons at age 33 and 35. Also, when he went head to head vs. Jim Brown in 1964, he had a 200 yard game at age 35 as well. Took pride in his rep as a fierce blocker.

[Dadonkadonk]

13 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I highly doubt he has longevity with the Bills. He could play through next season but that would be it for me. He's starting to dance to much at the LOS. I can also see us drafting a RB to compliment Murphy. We all love Shady but his clock is ticking. 

I will take a loss of a yard followed by an 11 yard run over Ivory getting 3 yards a carry any day.

Shady is still playing well. He has not lost a step. He is still an elite RB.  The OL was terrible at the beginning of the season and is still bottom third in the NFL.  Two new players on the OL will get Shady 1000K yards again next year. No to mention Allen playing at a high level will help.

5 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

Not ONE RB in this league would put up good numbers with the Pass game Shady played with. 8-9 in the box on a regular basis , with zero respect for the pass game. Last week , with a solid pass game , Shady looked electric. His cutting ability is still the best . That spin move was straight outta Madden. The TD run , he showed great speed to beat the S to the end zone. 

He's a leader, captain, loves this team and an ultimate gamer that hasn't lost 1/10th of a step. I feel the complete opposite. I want him on this team for at least 2 more years, he's a rare playmaker and deadly in the pass game too.

Completely agree as long as he didn't have a role in his former GF getting beat up.  If he did then cut him immediately.  

[Nelius]

AP is an anomaly. He's cyborg Earl Campbell. He will be top-5 of all time when it's all said and done. He's old and missed time for good reason so it seems like people kind of forgot how incredible he was when he was at the top of his game. Were it not for bad knees and bad decisions he would possibly be in the discussion for best of all time.

 

That said, McCoy is up there. He's definitely still showing flashes but I don't think a rebuilding team like this needs to bank on an aging superstar. Let him get his ring and reach 12,000 yards with a contender. We can't overlook RB though. Marcus Murphy ain't gonna cut it. We should only move on from McCoy because of his age and salary, but we need to replace him with somebody young and legitimately good - not a stopgap journeyman who may have a good year. 

 

10 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

It's the same thing in baseball. Never rely on a speed/quickness based player post 30 years old. See Carl Crawford.

 

I love Shady, but he's approaching the finish line.

 

This is a fantastic Carl Crawford drop but we've got to give Shady more credit than that. He's more Rickey Henderson than Carl Crawford at this point. Maybe Tim Raines if we're really being specific.

Edited November 17, 2018 by Nelius

[LSHMEAB]

28 minutes ago, Nelius said:

AP is an anomaly. He's cyborg Earl Campbell. He will be top-5 of all time when it's all said and done. He's old and missed time for good reason so it seems like people kind of forgot how incredible he was when he was at the top of his game. Were it not for bad knees and bad decisions he would possibly be in the discussion for best of all time.

 

That said, McCoy is up there. He's definitely still showing flashes but I don't think a rebuilding team like this needs to bank on an aging superstar. Let him get his ring and reach 12,000 yards with a contender. We can't overlook RB though. Marcus Murphy ain't gonna cut it. We should only move on from McCoy because of his age and salary, but we need to replace him with somebody young and legitimately good - not a stopgap journeyman who may have a good year. 

 

 

This is a fantastic Carl Crawford drop but we've got to give Shady more credit than that. He's more Rickey Henderson than Carl Crawford at this point. Maybe Tim Raines if we're really being specific.

Crawford was the name that came to mind because the baseball geeks were citing it as an awful signing for the Red Sox as speed was his main attribute. Fans scoffed and thought he'd be great. I think Shady can still be productive next season if the Bills are able to block and scheme better.

 

Let's just pray McCoy is more Ricky Henderson than Crawford. Ricky hit a HR in 25 straight seasons!!!! Nuts.

 

Tim is a solid reference because like Shady, Rock is an excellent nickname.

 

 

[Troll Toll]

Shady looks a hair slower this year, he probably has two good years left. AP is just physically at another level from all other NFL RBs, which in itself is mind-boggling because these are elite athletes. You could tell leading up to the draft that AP was this kind of special athlete. I remember one guy saying Adrian Peterson was the 2nd running back he ever saw that he thought could have played in the NFL while he was still in High School.

[Chicken Boo]

9 hours ago, NoSaint said:

3 prime years is a bold claim 

 

It is, but on the right team in the right system, I believe he's got it.  It won't happen here.

[HansLanda]

7 hours ago, Nelius said:

AP is an anomaly. He's cyborg Earl Campbell. He will be top-5 of all time when it's all said and done. He's old and missed time for good reason so it seems like people kind of forgot how incredible he was when he was at the top of his game. Were it not for bad knees and bad decisions he would possibly be in the discussion for best of all time.

 

That said, McCoy is up there. He's definitely still showing flashes but I don't think a rebuilding team like this needs to bank on an aging superstar. Let him get his ring and reach 12,000 yards with a contender. We can't overlook RB though. Marcus Murphy ain't gonna cut it. We should only move on from McCoy because of his age and salary, but we need to replace him with somebody young and legitimately good - not a stopgap journeyman who may have a good year. 

 

 

This is a fantastic Carl Crawford drop but we've got to give Shady more credit than that. He's more Rickey Henderson than Carl Crawford at this point. Maybe Tim Raines if we're really being specific.

 

This is correct. AP is literally a "generational" RB. He did his ACL, came back in like 6 or 8 months, and was even faster and more physical. 

[HeHateMe]

On 11/16/2018 at 10:54 PM, Flip Johnson said:

 

I love that type of TV analysis ... "he looks like he lost a step." 

 

The first game of the year where we throw the ball semi-effectively he runs for 110. Come on.

 

Against a Jets team that gave up.. He's been brutal all season... yes without a lot of help but he dances way to much at this stage of his career.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

On 11/17/2018 at 8:46 AM, HansLanda said:

 

This is correct. AP is literally a "generational" RB. He did his ACL, came back in like 6 or 8 months, and was even faster and more physical. 

 

...great call bud...accelerated rehab was nothing short of remarkable....Deadskins got a steal for $1.015 mil vet minimum...............

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

I think Shady has 3 more years left then he is done. AP is a physical freak of nature, I remember when he came back from that knee injury 5 months ahead of schedule. Shady doesn't have a lot of strait line speed and will become your average NFL RB in the next 2 years.