12/11 Update with 2 Mock Drafts: Who the Bills have been scouting

[DCOrange]

41 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

 

The thesis of the article is that you can infer "top priorities" based on this data and that appears to be incorrect.

You actually made my point for me. Just looking at who we (overtly) scouted out of the top 10 available players doesn't give any indication of how we value the middle and late round players. It also tries to correlate number of scouting visits to interest in a player. This would be a great article if they left the thesis out that there's some correlation between who we looked at in the top 10 and what our "top priorities" are.

 

Obviously some of the limitations is that for example, they've technically scouted Shea Patterson (Michigan's QB) twice now, but do we really think he is what drew them there? I doubt it; it was most likely their defense or possibly Karan Higdon.

 

But I think what I've compiled here is different from saying "We've gone to three Oklahoma State games, so we must be locked in on Mason Rudolph". For example, the only team that we've gone to see three times so far is Alabama. I think that makes a lot of sense because they have so many NFL prospects; I would guess going to multiple games has allowed them to focus on guys in game #2 or 3 that they weren't able to focus on in game #1 for example. So I'm not really reading into the fact that they scouted this team multiple times and therefore must be locked in on this one player that plays for that team.

 

I think the fact that, for example, they've scouted every single team that the top 10 DTs play on is probably an indicator that they will further address the DT position this offseason. The likelihood of it just being coincidence that they've just so happened to scout literally all 10 of the top 10, including three of them multiple times, is pretty unlikely IMO. Likewise with the CB position. This is especially true when you further factor in the fact that these guys are easily the main draws for NFL teams. Like Buffalo isn't going to Houston to watch whoever their WR is. Maybe they notice another player that stands out while watching Ed Oliver, but Ed Oliver is without a doubt what drew Buffalo to that game. I think seeing Greedy Williams against Auburn and Alabama's WRs was most likely one of the main draws for them to go see those games (along with just wanting to see all of Alabama's guys).

 

Point being, I'm not trying to use this analysis to single out specific players that I think Buffalo will take; I'm just using it to paint the picture of which positions they appear to be taking a lot of looks at, and in the case of DT and CB particularly, I think the conclusion is pretty concrete; Buffalo wants to upgrade those positions. I don't think there was any reason to believe that Buffalo was locked in on Mason Rudolph last year, but the fact that they were in attendance for games featuring literally every QB that was worth a damn strongly indicated that they'd be prioritizing a QB and that obviously proved to be the case.

[billsfan_34]

2 hours ago, billspro said:

Well it looks like DT and CB will be BPA in round 1. There is not much offensive talent right now. I would be happy if the first three picks were CB, RB, TE

You would want another corner? Im not saying thats a bad thing as you always need a nice staple of them, im just thinking later on in the draft. We need WR/RB in a big way.

[billspro]

12 minutes ago, billsfan_34 said:

You would want another corner? Im not saying thats a bad thing as you always need a nice staple of them, im just thinking later on in the draft. We need WR/RB in a big way.

 

We do need a WR in the worst way. I don’t see any top 10 WRs right now. Maybe we can get the kid from UB in round 2? I think the Bills will try to add some veterans to offence in free agency. 

 

My my first choice would be offensive line in round 1. If that doesn’t work I would love to have Greedy Williams opposite Trey White. 

 

Again my first choice in round 2 would be center, but a WR, TE, or RB would help as well. 

 

It will become much clearer after they add 3 or 4 starters in free agency.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

This is a worthy thread. 

 

Rather than another Let-me-share-my-opinion-again-why-I-think- Terry/Kim/Beane/McD/Peterman-sucks thread, I want to thank DCO for sharing new and interesting insights.  

 

Good work!

 

Agreed.

 

[Soda Popinski]

If we draft a RB in the top 10 I will lose my ****

[GG]

2 hours ago, mannc said:

Yes, but they aren’t positions that should necessarily be addressed with premium picks, and last I checked, CB is not an offensive position.  WR has to be the number 1 draft priority, for obvious reasons, and because it will be a tough position to fix in free agency.

 

I'd argue that a premier TE is far more important for the Bills to get next year.

[ocemur]

Correct me if I'm wrong here, but if you don't scout everybody at all positions, how do you know who the BPA is? Particularly in the middle and late rounds? Further, what can we tell about specific types of players at a given position? Are they scouting big possession type receivers or speed guys to take the top off of defenses? Are they scouting certain programs because they have a culture similar to McD's philosophy and he knows they are more likely to be "process" guys?

 

There's a ton variables at play here besides just position or within each position itself. Don't get me wrong, more information is better and I appreciate the thread, I'm just not so sure about drawing any conclusions from it yet.

[BuffaloHokie13]

39 minutes ago, Soda Popinski said:

If we draft a RB in the top 10 I will lose my ****

I don't have a RB in my top 32, let alone the top 10. Not seeing a Zeke or Barkley situation this year.

[wppete]

In this order:

 

1. OL

2. WR

3. CB

4. DE

5. DT

6. LB

7. TE

8. RB

[formerlyofCtown]

3 hours ago, mannc said:

Yes, but they aren’t positions that should necessarily be addressed with premium picks, and last I checked, CB is not an offensive position.  WR has to be the number 1 draft priority, for obvious reasons, and because it will be a tough position to fix in free agency.

The draft is insanely deep at WR.  Although maybe we should trade up giving 2 first to take a WR in a deep draft.  Who knows they may even turn out to be injury prone.

Edited November 16, 2018 by formerlyofCtown

[mannc]

1 hour ago, GG said:

 

I'd argue that a premier TE is far more important for the Bills to get next year.

It’s important, for sure, and we definitely should draft one.  But history suggests that really good TEs, like RBs, can be found throughout the draft, not just at the top.

[TigerJ]

34 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I don't have a RB in my top 32, let alone the top 10. Not seeing a Zeke or Barkley situation this year.

Agreed.  A year ago draftniks were touting Bryce Love as a first round worthy RB in the 2019 draft, but he's had injuries and has struggled this year.  He still may be a great prospect, but now he's a 2nd or 3rd rounder.

[ghostwriter]

Nobody likes Marquise Brown?

[HuSeYiN_NYC]

To those who think we have a need at RB just simply can't analyze the talent we already have. Shady is still elusive. Murphy runs hard and fast (just needs to study more on blocking) and Ivory runs hard...

 

To spend a 1st round draft pick on a RB will be a waste imo. We need to address offensive line, WR and TE in the 1st. I understand CB may be a need just as much, but our #1 overall defense would have something to say about that.

 

No matter who we draft at the end of the day, none of it matters unless Allen develops and shows progress which is why I'm excited to watch our 3-7 Bills go against the Jaguars to see if Allen sitting and "learning" from the sidelines helped at all.

 

I'm not opposed to drafting QB in the 1st if Allen doesn't show progress. I can withstand another losing season next year long as we are comfortable in THAT position. 

[MJS]

I thought scouts have certain areas that they cover and try to get to know each team in their area really well.

 

So scouts would be focusing on a bunch of different players at these games, right?

[YoloinOhio]

18 minutes ago, NewDayBills said:

Nobody likes Marquise Brown?

I do, I do!!

[Buffalo Barbarian]

5 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Smokescreen!

 

(too soon?)

 

Your just mad that you didn't post it first

 

 

[4thandGoal]

4 hours ago, billspro said:

Well it looks like DT and CB will be BPA in round 1. There is not much offensive talent right now. I would be happy if the first three picks were CB, RB, TE

really--- maybe the CB in first rd but dont you think O-Line should be a priority

[rodneykm]

You can grab a decent RB in the 3rd and 4th rounds - absolutely no reason to spend a high round pick on one. Hell, sign a FA back if you must. 

 

Enough of the defensive players, it is time to build that monster offensive line and grab a speed WR to stretch things out a bit. TE might not be a bad idea either, but I have a feeling Croom is going to be awesome. 

[CaptnCoke11]

4 hours ago, mannc said:

Yes, but they aren’t positions that should necessarily be addressed with premium picks, and last I checked, CB is not an offensive position.  WR has to be the number 1 draft priority, for obvious reasons, and because it will be a tough position to fix in free agency.

And if none of the WRs are worth the high selection Buffalo has they should just take one anyway?  That’s a sound strategy