John Wawrow: Struggles Aside, Bills GM Not Veering from Rebuilding Plan

[Thurman#1]

15 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The Eagles and Rams when Pederson and McVay were hired were in much worse states as a roster than the Bills were when McD arrived.

 

I mean the Bills played the Rams in 2016..........and routed them.........they were utterly punchless on offense under Jeff Fisher despite a serviceable veteran QB in Case Keenum.........their once high pick loaded defense was not panning out..........they totally flipped that script in one offseason(without owning a first round pick!).

 

The Eagles had been torn down by Chip Kelly..........the Bills were much more talented than that roster in 2016 when Pederson took over........a season later he raises the Lombardi.

 

And the Chiefs.........for years the Bills and Chiefs have been talent equals.........just better coached.    They swindled the Bills into giving them Mahomes and now they are atop the AFC and seemingly light years ahead of the Bills(who beat them in KC last season).

 

It is what it is..........the Bills did it their way and it was clearly not the most efficient way.    They sit at 3-7 in year 2 and tons of question marks.

 

 

 

 

Again, no. The Eagles and Rams had had the same GM for years. They weren't in a rebuild, dude, they just weren't. They were building. The Eagles team that won the SB had the the two tackles and the center from the 2015 team you're talking about, Agholor was there, Celek, Ertz, and a lot of the best players on that defense ... Fletcher Cox, Graham, Kendricks, Jenkins. And they were lucky enough to get the Browns to trade back and get Wentz.

 

And they were both in pretty decent cap shape, whereas the Bills were in a horrible situation. And the cap shape makes all the difference. The Bills had to get rid of a lot of players they'd rather have kept and a ton who were decent players but overpaid besides. The Eagles and Rams were not screwed by the cap in the same way. Epstein was able to spend a ton on extensions the past few years because they weren't in cap hell. They're under cap pressure now but winning a Super Bowl makes that look OK. Whereas Whaley's brilliant strategy of spending as if we were in a Super Bowl window when we weren't good enough to get eight wins screwed us but good. Same with the Rams ... they were in good cap shape but now, in a window, have gone all in. Whereas we were already all in on that awful team.

 

And the Rams didn't flip the script in a year. They built. They simply continued to build. In 2016 they already had a lot of this year's team on their roster. Including Aaron Donald, who they say is pretty decent. I hear Gurley's OK too, isn't he? Barron, Brockers, Littleton, Longacre, Hill, Joyner. That's most of the defence. Gurley, Saffold, Havenstein. And they were far luckier than the Bills at acquiring a QB with there being a team willing to trade out of the #1 spot. Happily for them, Goff got better, a whole ton better in his second year. More power to them for picking the right QB and developing him. But that is a team that has been building under the same GM for a while and a team that also got lucky with a 4-12 record in the outgoing coach's last year when he lost the locker room getting them good high picks in that next draft.

 

And you can pretend the Bills were talented, but that's what it is. Wishing and hoping. That Bills team managed seven wins for a reason. We weren't far more talented than the Eagles at all. The Eagles had won 10 games the year before, with Bradford at QB. When had we last won 10 games?

 

I'm not interested in arguing the Mahomes trade. It now looks great for the Chiefs but it could easily turn out to be just as good for the Bills when they get out of the early part of this rebuild ... assuming Allen works out. I'm not convinced he will but he's clearly got a chance.  Would Mahomes be as good in Buffalo? At best an open question. And Beane wasn't here to make that call. McDermott isn't a personnel guy and certainly isn't an offensive personnel guy. His GM and scouting staff were the guys who wanted EJ Manuel. Why would McBeane trust them ... even if they did want Mahomes, and there's no evidence they did ... remember how Whaley was the one on the phone to Andy Reid for that trade? Did we hear anything indicating Dougie had a problem with it?

 

And um, we "routed the Rams" that year? That's pretty strong language for 30-19, for a game that was tied well into the 3rd quarter.  What we did, we beat them. And we also beat the Vikes and Titans this year. Does that prove we're a more talented team than them? Ridiculous.

 

The Bills weren't talent equals to the Chiefs, but just better coached. That's nonsense. The Chiefs had an NFL-standard QB in Alex Smith. But here's what consistently better talent there than here looks like:

 

Pro Bowlers ...

 

2017: Chiefs 7, Bills 6

2016: Chiefs 6, Bills 4,

2015: Chiefs 4, Bills 3, 

2014: Chiefs 10, Bills 4

2013: Chiefs 6, Bills 3

2012: Chiefs 2, Bills 0

2011: Chiefs 6, Bills 1

 

 

Yes, the Bills did it their way. And yeah, it is very likely the most efficient way to go from sub-mediocre talent, no QB and a horrible cap situation to being an excellent team. Neither of those other teams was bringing in a new GM. Both of them were in much better cap shape. Both got teams to trade them the top two picks in the draft, whereas there appears to be zero indication the Bills could have managed getting into the top three this year, at least after the Jets traded up to three in a very nice move, unfortunately. We couldn't have taken the same route. We weren't getting either of the top three spots, particularly not from pick #22. The Rams and Eagles were simply in much better condition, quite a bit farther along in their schedule.

 

 

I'm not arguing that McDermott and Beane have shown themselves to be great. Far from it. The jury is still out. They still have a ton to prove. But blaming them for rebuilding makes no sense. They were in awful shape for any other course of action and not that great a shape for a rebuild either, with the crappy cap situation and coming off a seven win season rather than an awful year that would have given them a high draft pick to start with. They weren't in good shape for any course of action with that cap situation. But their best option considering their desperation for a QB was a rebuild.

 

And rebuilds (near-complete ones like this one had to be, anyway) suck. They involve at least a couple of years of losing and awfulness. It's what they are.

 

Edited November 17, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Mr. WEO]

15 hours ago, ctk232 said:

Well good to know re: Cuomo.

 

As for Amazon, how much time do you have? It's NYC and it's not Seattle; it's the second time around so it'll likely be a different approach; and yes, it is a massive financial injection that will provide some economic influx, that can't be argued. What is the cause of the debate is cost/benefit analysis - and the fact that Amazon has actually vastly increased costs more than benefits comparably. They made those same promises to Seattle as well when Amazon finally started to grow big, as a result of the local entrepreneurial economy already established here by multiple other tech and non-tech based companies. Promises never happened. Those 25,000 jobs making $125k will more than likely be filled by people from out of state and are already within the company. No money will flow locally until Amazon literally puts Queens under construction for the next 25 years and increases population density in one of the most densely populated areas in the country. And the cost of living in an already over-inflated area will only go up forcing people out. 

 

But the real fleecing doesn't come with the tax break as much as it does anyone believing their promises. Amazon has had a very poor track record of actually economically revitalizing an area - most of what you saw happen in Seattle since Amazon arrived was primarily due to Microsoft and the tech industry coming in beforehand (of which Amazon was a bandwagoner moving to the area in '94), UW tech-focused programs creating domestic human capital to fit the industry, and those other companies called Boeing, Nordstrom, Eddie Bauer, REI, and fricking Starbucks. So those "millions" getting pumped into the local economy and tax base in general? They won't be coming from Amazon. If you want what happened here you want Seattle, you don't want Amazon. 

 

Decent piece explaining exactly this, and sourcing some of my own opinions: https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/10/19/amazon-headquarters-seattle-215725 - more of the economic conversation occurs at the end of the article, leading in with more of the social and cultural impacts

 

The 25,000 jobs will most likely be from people coming to NYC to work---I think that's what the state and city are hoping anyway.

 

As for LIC--it had already begun undergoing a large scale residential construction boom several years ago anyway--in fact, other then the west side of Manhattan, it is the biggest site of growth in the past 10 years in NYC.  It was not a population dense area to begin with due to all low-rise (or individual houses)  housing and most of the area is light industry and tons of warehouses.  Now, it actually has a skyline--which to anyone who has been familiar with the area is stunning, as this was a neighborhood the cabs cut through on their way to JFK from the 59th St Bridge.   Those developers who invested in all of these new towers are about to get a huge, unexpected windfall as requests for showings are blowing up since last week.

 

Seattle, as you point out, was already a tech hub without Amazon. NYC, as the financial and media capital of the country (and the center of existing, vast personal wealth, didn't really need Amazon to revitalize NYC (it will do that to the tiny part that is LIC and surrounding areas.  It's more of a prestige thing.  The city didn't need Amazon, but they wanted them.  Like nearly every business, large or small, in NY and in probably every state, the company coming to town was offered a pass on taxes and some infrastructure freebies.  If this wasn't Amazon, no one would comment on a big company getting tax breaks to move in.  It's really the way Amazon went about it with that bogus competition the had 200+ cities participate in.  From the beginning, there were only 4 or 5 cities that could provide what Amazon required to move there.....and then it just became a question of which of their favorites could give them the best deal financially.

 

 

[Big Turk]

Another "Trust the Process" guy from baseball...maybe McBeane should have hired him to preach the same mantra from a different angle?

 

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/orioles-mishandled-search-general-manager-001506012.html

[John from Riverside]

On 11/16/2018 at 10:33 AM, ddaryl said:

 

 

I exect a professional organization to field an Offense an do do what it takes to groom a rookie QB into the NFL which includes a reaql established vet.. And to field an OL that doesn't get our RB and QB destroyed in the process

 

 

I'm sick and tired of it 9-7 -3-13- 8-8 - 4-12s.....

 

but no team in their right mind fields this offense on purpose 

 

 

They do if previous has not been working

 

to be clear I don’t think they expected to be THIS bad on offense but the end result is still the same and the ability to improve the offense on the offseason cannot be denied

 

be patient

[BADOLBILZ]

12 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Again, no. The Eagles and Rams had had the same GM for years. They weren't in a rebuild, dude, they just weren't. They were building.

 

 

 

 

So hiring a new GM and HC AUTOMAGICALLY means it's a rebuild?

 

No.......it absolutely does NOT.

 

The Bills were not in need of a re-build.

 

Rex was fired because........and I f*cking quote Terry Pegula.......... "7-9 isn't good enough".

 

READ:  "We are more talented than that."

 

I can go on but you tankers have been continually proven wrong since last summer............this team is not intentionally trading W's for draft position.........it's just happening this way in the past year and a half because they made some very bad decisions wrt the offensive side of the ball.

 

The positive is that the league is set up to allow teams to recover quickly from bad decisions.............they can bounce back if Allen pans out or they find another stud QB.....but it's going to be a longer wait because of bad decisions like trading the pick instead of taking Mahomes.    

[Success]

It was great to break the drought, but last year’s team was kind of an overachieving illusion.  It gave us unrealistic expectations.

 

I think we’ll look back on this season as being tough, but necessary.

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

So hiring a new GM and HC AUTOMAGICALLY means it's a rebuild?

 

No.......it absolutely does NOT.

 

Yeah, if I'd said or implied that, you'd really have a point. I find it immensely hard to imagine the mental gyrations you must have gone through to imagine or pretend that's what I meant.

 

What I meant is that if it's NOT a new GM, it's NOT a rebuild. A GM who's been somewhere a while saying "Well, clearly I've been so awful at my job that we need to rebuild" doesn't deserve to have a job. Rebuilding is a new GM's prerogative. Philly and the Rams did not have a reasonable choice to rebuild. They were at a different point in their life cycle. They had better rosters and they also were in good cap shape, unlike the Bills. Then they both got lucky with being able to trade up to #1 and #2. They reloaded and got lucky with QBs.

 

The Bills wouldn't have been able to do that from #22 without the draft capital that they were able to put together specifically because they were in a rebuild and traded away guys who wouldn't fit and that they couldn't afford. Reloading wouldn't have worked for the Bills.

 

The Bills were in desperate need of a rebuild.

 

 

 

10 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The Bills were not in need of a re-build.

 

Rex was fired because........and I f*cking quote Terry Pegula.......... "7-9 isn't good enough".

 

READ:  "We are more talented than that."

 

I can go on but you tankers have been continually proven wrong since last summer............this team is not intentionally trading W's for draft position.........it's just happening this way in the past year and a half because they made some very bad decisions wrt the offensive side of the ball.

 

The positive is that the league is set up to allow teams to recover quickly from bad decisions.............they can bounce back if Allen pans out or they find another stud QB.....but it's going to be a longer wait because of bad decisions like trading the pick instead of taking Mahomes.    

 

 

Well, you can see "7-9 isn't good enough" and "READ", "We are more talented than that," but it would show far more about you and what you're desperate to believe than it would about Terry. It could just as easily "READ" anything from "having seen Rex for two years I don't think he'll ever be good enough" to "he's been bringing in talent that hasn't showed itself on the field as good decisions" to "the guy has looked like a clown and then gone 7-9, why would I keep him around." The only mention of "talent" there is in your own head.

 

Your "READ"ing it that way is pure confirmation bias, seeing what you believe rather than what's actually there, a symptom of the desperate desire to believe that Terry is saying what you want him to say, when he doesn't even appear to be addressing the same issue. Ryan came in promising a successful reload - he didn't need no stinking rebuild - he'd win with what he had. And then he went 7-9. 

 

And to repeat for the eight millionth time something that should not need to be said even once, there's no such thing as an NFL tank. They don't make sense in the context of football. Tank is a hockey and basketball word. In football, there are rebuilds.

 

And I'm not a rebuilder either. I'm a football fan capable of seeing a rebuild and identifying it - correctly - as what it is, a rebuild.

Edited November 18, 2018 by Thurman#1

[jrober38]

On 11/16/2018 at 4:39 PM, BillsEnthusiast said:

 

Not while we have the hope of Allen to look forward to

 

Have you been on ticket master?

 

There are thousands of unsold tickets to the Jets, Lions and Dolphins games. 

 

There are more unsold tickets than sold tickets in the upper bowl to the Jets games and with tickets going for like $10 on stubhub no one is buying those seats.

 

Guaranteed there are 10k empty seats to the Jets and Lions games, and probably 20k empty seats to the Dolphins game. 

 

https://www1.ticketmaster.com/event/00005467B0618E66?brand=bills&artistid=805905&landing=s&camefrom=CFC_BILLS_BBC_PIP_PSO&f_hybrid_map=true&ab=efeat6505v1

[Roundybout]

7 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Have you been on ticket master?

 

There are thousands of unsold tickets to the Jets, Lions and Dolphins games. 

 

There are more unsold tickets than sold tickets in the upper bowl to the Jets games and with tickets going for like $10 on stubhub no one is buying those seats.

 

Guaranteed there are 10k empty seats to the Jets and Lions games, and probably 20k empty seats to the Dolphins game. 

 

https://www1.ticketmaster.com/event/00005467B0618E66?brand=bills&artistid=805905&landing=s&camefrom=CFC_BILLS_BBC_PIP_PSO&f_hybrid_map=true&ab=efeat6505v1

 

That's good for me since I'll be there, but why do you care? You don't have to pay the bills. What difference does it make?

[jrober38]

2 minutes ago, BillsEnthusiast said:

 

That's good for me since I'll be there, but why do you care? You don't have to pay the bills. What difference does it make?

 

The guy paying the Bills isn't going to like 10-20k empty seats and all the lost income that goes with not selling concessions and $10 beers to those patrons. 

 

Once it starts to hit Pegula in the wallet, he's going to care about the teams terrible performance. 

Edited November 18, 2018 by jrober38

[Roundybout]

4 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

The guy paying the Bills isn't going to like 10-20k empty seats and all the lost income that goes with not selling concessions and $10 beers to those patrons. 

 

Once it starts to hit Pegula in the wallet, he's going to care about the teams terrible performance. 

 

Pegs can go tap another gas well or open another Labatt house to make up the difference. I don't think he is worried about the hit of one rebuilding year. 

[jrober38]

31 minutes ago, BillsEnthusiast said:

 

Pegs can go tap another gas well or open another Labatt house to make up the difference. I don't think he is worried about the hit of one rebuilding year. 

 

My guess is that's not how he's ever approached running a business during his lifetime. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

47 minutes ago, BillsEnthusiast said:

 

Pegs can go tap another gas well or open another Labatt house to make up the difference. I don't think he is worried about the hit of one rebuilding year. 

 

....although when he bought the Bills, he said in inner circle that it was "Kim's baby", which does NOT preclude HIM from owning a loser.........when the Bills got thumped just prior to the London game, TP was in his office watching ESPN Sportscenter........Wrecks and Roman were walking by his office and he called them both in.....pretty sure two or three teams won their games with backup QB's throwing for 300+ yards....his point blank question was, "why can't our players do that?".....they had no answer and walked out....doubt they spent $1.4 bil for Bills and $190 mil for Sabres to be labeled perennial loser owners.....$200 mil for harbor investment....bought the AHL Amerks & Buffalo Bandits......just took over running BCBS Arena where Amerks play and committed $$$ to renovations.......firmly entrenched in WNY and his wife is from Fairport, NY, three miles from St John Fisher camp.....personal pride??......

Edited November 18, 2018 by OldTimeAFLGuy