Bills tied for 2nd most "deep" throws in the NFL...

[Big Turk]

Somehow the Bills are tied for 2nd most deep throws in the league? Deep throw defined as passes that travel 20+ yards in the air. Kind of stunned by this.

 

 

 

[Juice_32]

When healthy Allen was throwing to a few deep middle crossing routes per game. I'd guess many of them were right at the 20 yard level. Most people probably associate "deep" (me included) with sideline go routes.

[Soda Popinski]

That 45% by the Chiefs is impressive.  

[nucci]

we throw them....just don't complete them...the throwing part is easy......

[row_33]

52 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Somehow the Bills are tied for 2nd most deep throws in the league? Deep throw defined as passes that travel 20+ yards in the air. Kind of stunned by this.

 

 

 

 

75% of their game time has been garbagetime

 

[Marv's Neighbor]

Desperate times call for desperate throws.

[BurpleBull]

Who knew?

[Ronin]

This is interesting and as long as it’s been posted it’s a good time to consider the implications. 

 

Here’s the takeaway from that data tidbit …

 

This is data from just over half a season.  Let’s take a team with a good QB from that lot, say Rodgers & GB. 

 

Rodgers has still only completed 38% of those deep throws, which clearly means the obvious, that while the NFL average completion rate is in the 60’s for percentage, the deep-throw completion percentage is just over half of that.   And yes, these numbers are on par with league averages for a season.  

 

In fact, Rodgers has completed 18 of those 48 throws assuming that the data is accurage.  That’s 2 deep-throw completions per game, and let’s not forget that “deep” means simply throws of 20+ yards whereas I don’t particularly consider throws of under 40 requiring Marino (or Allen) arm-strength.  I can’t imagine who would since there are many NFL QBs not noted for arm-strength that can and who have traditionally made such throws with comparable frequency. 

 

Either way, that’s on a good team with good receivers, no particular running game to balance off of rendering their passing game all the more critical to effective functioning, which it clearly is with Rodgers at the helm. 

 

So in this child-like kid-in-a-candy-shop tendency to overrate arm-strength, which has failed so often in the recent past (Russell, Leaf, Locker, et al.), why would anyone opt to build a team around deep-throws as McBeane have done? 

 

According to that data, with the average number of plays-from-scrimmage being run in the mid-high 60s, and with an average of approx. 5 deep-throw attempts, again, “deep” being defined by a mere 20 yards, hardly requiring iconic arm-strength, this is easily fewer than 10% of plays, the vast majority of which fail. 

 

It is around 3% that succeed, again, 20+, not 40 or 50+, but even so. 

 

Wouldn’t it make far more sense to look for a QB that is far more capable of managing the other 90-some% of the game well. 

 

Just sayin’ as if, and since, it isn’t obvious to many, including so-called “experts” that make a more than handsome living in this business. 

 

As a sidenote, also not going unnoticed is that only 3 of those 10 teams have winning records. 

[26CornerBlitz]

It's been a season long trend since Allen became the starting QB that was continued by Anderson and Barkley. 

[Ronin]

25 minutes ago, nucci said:

we throw them....just don't complete them...the throwing part is easy......

 

And even if we complete them, how many go for TDs?  

 

The long & short of it is that it's foolish to design an offense around the deep ball when such a small number of plays involve deep throws and when even fewer actually are completed.  

 

I get the whole cliche'd "stretch the D" nonsense, but the reality is that if you have a QB incapable of managing the other 90-some % of the game, good luck, you'll need it.  Luck that is.  

[Scott7975]

4 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

This is interesting and as long as it’s been posted it’s a good time to consider the implications. 

 

Here’s the takeaway from that data tidbit …

 

This is data from just over half a season.  Let’s take a team with a good QB from that lot, say Rodgers & GB. 

 

Rodgers has still only completed 38% of those deep throws, which clearly means the obvious, that while the NFL average completion rate is in the 60’s for percentage, the deep-throw completion percentage is just over half of that.   And yes, these numbers are on par with league averages for a season.  

 

In fact, Rodgers has completed 18 of those 48 throws assuming that the data is accurage.  That’s 2 deep-throw completions per game, and let’s not forget that “deep” means simply throws of 20+ yards whereas I don’t particularly consider throws of under 40 requiring Marino (or Allen) arm-strength.  I can’t imagine who would since there are many NFL QBs not noted for arm-strength that can and who have traditionally made such throws with comparable frequency. 

 

Either way, that’s on a good team with good receivers, no particular running game to balance off of rendering their passing game all the more critical to effective functioning, which it clearly is with Rodgers at the helm. 

 

So in this child-like kid-in-a-candy-shop tendency to overrate arm-strength, which has failed so often in the recent past (Russell, Leaf, Locker, et al.), why would anyone opt to build a team around deep-throws as McBeane have done? 

 

According to that data, with the average number of plays-from-scrimmage being run in the mid-high 60s, and with an average of approx. 5 deep-throw attempts, again, “deep” being defined by a mere 20 yards, hardly requiring iconic arm-strength, this is easily fewer than 10% of plays, the vast majority of which fail. 

 

It is around 3% that succeed, again, 20+, not 40 or 50+, but even so. 

 

Wouldn’t it make far more sense to look for a QB that is far more capable of managing the other 90-some% of the game well. 

 

Just sayin’ as if, and since, it isn’t obvious to many, including so-called “experts” that make a more than handsome living in this business. 

 

As a sidenote, also not going unnoticed is that only 3 of those 10 teams have winning records. 

Arm strength doesn’t just mean you can throw the ball far. 

[jr1]

"I'll just throw it to McCaffrey"-Cam

[msw2112]

Arm strength is never a negative quality.  Perhaps they drafted Allen because he has mobility, leadership qualities, a good work ethic AND arm strength.  I agree that drafting a guy who ONLY has arm strength is not a good idea.  That said, I'm not sure whether the question from the initial post was "Why did we draft a guy with great arm strength?" or "Why do we attempt so many long throws down the field?"

Edited November 15, 2018 by msw2112

[Mrbojanglezs]

Almost every game this year was over by halftime, so that explains the long pass attempts.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

too bad KB couldn't catch 2/3 of them 

[Miracle Bills]

When you are trailing by 3 touchdowns so often, you throw deep.

[mrags]

I don’t consider 20 to 30 yards a deep throw. If they do, that’s fine. But it really isn’t. A deep throw is definitely over 30 yards in the air. Probably more like 40. 

[hondo in seattle]

The Saints have attempted about half as many "deep" passes as the Bills but completed 4 more.  

 

Quality trumps quantity.  

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

15 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

The Saints have attempted about half as many "deep" passes as the Bills but completed 4 more.  

 

Quality trumps quantity.  

again....  I blame KB    

 

19 minutes ago, mrags said:

I don’t consider 20 to 30 yards a deep throw. If they do, that’s fine. But it really isn’t. A deep throw is definitely over 30 yards in the air. Probably more like 40. 

has to be 25 to 30 + deep throw for me as well.  

Edited November 15, 2018 by ShadyBillsFan

[LSHMEAB]

I would venture a guess that of all those teams, the Bills have the highest pctg. of basic fly routes on 20+ yard attempts. Very few well designed/executed throws in the 20-30 yard range.