Is No. 1 Ranking Legit or a Mirage?

[Stank_Nasty]

3 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

It's worth noting, since the subject of defensive ppg allowed keeps coming up, that I had Buffalo at 14th in the league when normalizing the data to account for defensive and ST scores allowed per team.

 

I haven't updated it in a week, so that may no longer be the case, but I do know that Buffalo has allowed a league-high 4 defensive TDs.  Indy has allowed 3, and nobody else has allowed more than 2.

 

UPDATE: I re-ran the data set, and here's what it looks like...

1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	9	32.3	290.7		2	30.7	32
2	Cincinnati Bengals	9	32	288	1	1	30.4	31
3	Oakland Raiders	9	30.2	271.8		1	29.4	30
4	Atlanta Falcons	9	28.2	253.8		1	27.4	29
5	Detroit Lions	9	27.1	243.9	1	2	24.8	23
6	San Francisco 49ers	10	26.6	266		2	25.2	26
7	Indianapolis Colts	9	26.6	239.4		3	24.3	22
8	Cleveland Browns	10	26.3	263		1	25.6	28
9	Carolina Panthers	9	25.8	232.2		1	25.0	25
9	New Orleans Saints	9	25.8	232.2		1	25.0	25
11	Miami Dolphins	10	25.6	256	1	2	23.5	17
12	New York Jets	10	25.4	254			25.4	27
13	New York Giants	9	25.3	227.7		2	23.7	20
14	Buffalo Bills	10	25.1	251		4	22.3	12
15	Arizona Cardinals	9	25	225		2	23.4	16
16	Green Bay Packers	9	24	216		1	23.2	15
16	Kansas City Chiefs	10	24	240			24.0	21
18	Denver Broncos	9	23.7	213.3			23.7	19
19	New England Patriots	10	23.6	236			23.6	18
20	Pittsburgh Steelers	9	23.2	208.8			23.2	14
21	Los Angeles Rams	10	23.1	231			23.1	13
22	Minnesota Vikings	9	22.7	204.3	1	2	20.4	9
23	Jacksonville Jaguars	9	22.1	198.9		1	21.3	11
24	Seattle Seahawks	9	21.3	191.7		2	19.7	8
25	Los Angeles Chargers	9	20.7	186.3	2	1	18.4	5
26	Houston Texans	9	20.4	183.6			20.4	10
27	Philadelphia Eagles	9	20.3	182.7		1	19.5	7
28	Chicago Bears	9	19.4	174.6	2		17.8	3
28	Washington Redskins	9	19.4	174.6			19.4	6
30	Dallas Cowboys	9	19	171		1	18.2	4
31	Baltimore Ravens	9	17.8	160.2			17.8	2
32	Tennessee Titans	9	16.8	151.2	1		16.0	1

 

First number column is games played, followed by total PPG against, then total points against, then ST TDs against, then defensive TDs against.  The final two columns are defensive PPG against (assuming that each TD is worth 7 points) and ranking in defensive PPG against, respectively.

 

Buffalo ranks 12th in the league in defensive PPG allowed...do with that what you will.

i'm gonna go right ahead and quote this post, then bold the last line so the "characters" that cant seem to grasp that our offense has given up more td's than any other team can maybe start to see how silly they are being....

 

you team that number up with the fact that they are 1st in yards allowed per game, will still be top 5 in sacks after their bye week, will still most likely be top 10 in TO's after their bye week and 13th in 3rd down% and you EASILY have a top ten defense. add to the fact that they are doing this while dealing with an offense that is 2nd in the nfl in giveaways and it can easily be argued that they are a top 5 unit right now. 

 

10 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

The defensive TDs scored by the other team aren't counted (above you said it was 4 TDs, not exactly a "ridiculous amount over 10 games). 

 

The time of possession is not lopsided The Defense is on the field just under 30 min per game.

 

The 1st 2 games were bad, but against NE and Indy, in the end, they gave up 376 and 387 yards total and over 100 yards rushing in both and produced zero turnovers.  In the Indy game, the D game up TD drives of 75, 74, and 82 yards---in a row, before half time.  Against the pats, they gave up scoring drives of 73, 58 and 85 yards. 

 

What part of that is "locked down"?

when that's double the amount of any other team, but one, in just over a half a season.... then yes, its a large amount. 

 

but by all means. ignore it. do your thing.

Edited November 15, 2018 by Stank_Nasty

[Stank_Nasty]

3 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Titans, Ravens, Bears, Jags, Skins, Texans....

 

That wasn't very hard.  Look at 1st downs allowed, 3rd down conversion rate.  They are fairly closely clustered, even with the Bills.  Yet the Bills are the outlier with PPG allowed.  They are only 14th in red zone attempts against them, yet they are the 10th worst in RZ % scores prevented.

 

You could argue that the Bills and the Jets have similar Defenses (4.9 v 5.4 ypp, 18.7 v 19.8 1st downs allowed per game, 38 v 33% 3rd down conversion rate, 25.1 vs 25.4 ppg, 67 v 50% RZ success).  No one would say that the Jets D is in the top 5--unless the only stat you are looking at is yards per game. 

 all other than the jags have offenses in the top half of the league in least giveaways...titans have 12 less giveaways than the bills. bears, ravens and Texans have 11 less. skins have 15 less! jags are the only team even close at 3 less

 

this is only in a half a season. those are HUGE advantages to said defenses. but don't let silly facts like that get in the way or your narrative. 

Edited November 15, 2018 by Stank_Nasty

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Titans, Ravens, Bears, Jags, Skins, Texans....

 

That wasn't very hard.  Look at 1st downs allowed, 3rd down conversion rate.  They are fairly closely clustered, even with the Bills.  Yet the Bills are the outlier with PPG allowed.  They are only 14th in red zone attempts against them, yet they are the 10th worst in RZ % scores prevented.

 

You could argue that the Bills and the Jets have similar Defenses (4.9 v 5.4 ypp, 18.7 v 19.8 1st downs allowed per game, 38 v 33% 3rd down conversion rate, 25.1 vs 25.4 ppg, 67 v 50% RZ success).  No one would say that the Jets D is in the top 5--unless the only stat you are looking at is yards per game. 

 

The Bears are the best defense in the league to my mind at the moment, the Texans are pretty close (but had their struggles the first couple of game as we did). The Ravens like Buffalo have been a bit inconsistent but very good when on. The Skins, Jags, Titans I'd have pretty much on a par. So I think we are right there in that 4th-8th sort of area.

[LSHMEAB]

One tidbit for the folks who claim our defense is hamstrung by offensive ineptitude.

 

While it's true the offense is awful, they're actually 10th in the league in time of possession being on the plus side of 30:00 a game.

 

The defense is good, but not nearly as good as some suggest.

[Stank_Nasty]

14 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

One tidbit for the folks who claim our defense is hamstrung by offensive ineptitude.

 

While it's true the offense is awful, they're actually 10th in the league in time of possession being on the plus side of 30:00 a game.

 

The defense is good, but not nearly as good as some suggest.

22 giveaways in 10 games. Good for 2nd worst in the league. 

 

We’ll see how that changes after the bye. If at all. Might get a little better I suppose 

Edited November 15, 2018 by Stank_Nasty

[Mr. WEO]

59 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

i'm gonna go right ahead and quote this post, then bold the last line so the "characters" that cant seem to grasp that our offense has given up more td's than any other team can maybe start to see how silly they are being....

 

you team that number up with the fact that they are 1st in yards allowed per game, will still be top 5 in sacks after their bye week, will still most likely be top 10 in TO's after their bye week and 13th in 3rd down% and you EASILY have a top ten defense. add to the fact that they are doing this while dealing with an offense that is 2nd in the nfl in giveaways and it can easily be argued that they are a top 5 unit right now. 

 

when that's double the amount of any other team, but one, in just over a half a season.... then yes, its a large amount. 

 

but by all means. ignore it. do your thing.

 

It's 28 of the 359 points teams have scored against the Bills so far.

 

The Defense is there to prevent the other team from scoring.  They do that by getting off the field before the other teams scores.  You can't add the ppg allowed, plus the 13th ranked 3rd down conversion percentage, plus the 10th worst RZ conversion %....and "easily" get the 5th best Defense in the league.

 

48 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

 all other than the jags have offenses in the top half of the league in least giveaways...titans have 12 less giveaways than the bills. bears, ravens and Texans have 11 less. skins have 15 less! jags are the only team even close at 3 less

 

this is only in a half a season. those are HUGE advantages to said defenses. but don't let silly facts like that get in the way or your narrative. 

 

They are advantages for sure.  But the job of the D is the same--even on  a short field.  The Jags Offense has a higher TO per play % than the Bills.

 

45 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The Bears are the best defense in the league to my mind at the moment, the Texans are pretty close (but had their struggles the first couple of game as we did). The Ravens like Buffalo have been a bit inconsistent but very good when on. The Skins, Jags, Titans I'd have pretty much on a par. So I think we are right there in that 4th-8th sort of area.

 

More like 8 than 4.

Edited November 15, 2018 by Mr. WEO

[technobot]

I agree with the sentiment if they were a truly "best in the NFL" defense, they wouldn't have given up so many points, bottom-line.  Historically bad offense or not, a true #1 defense doesn't get run over against Baltimore or San Diego like the Bills D.  Whether it was one half or not doesn't matter.  Throw Indy into the mix, Derek Anderson notwithstanding.

 

For a defense predicated on bend but don't break, they've broken plenty this year.  Once again, I'm not exonerating the offense or special teams; the inability to play "complementary football" has put the D in tough spots.  But as Chan Gailey once said, sometimes in football it comes down to "whipping the man in front of you".  The Bears game gave the Bills D a statistical boost because the massive penalty yards aren't counted in yards allowed.  The D still could have stepped up and held the Bears to field goals.  They could have stopped Houston marching right down field to kick the go-ahead field goal.  Shutting teams when the chips are down, no matter how tired you are, in spite of your offense... that's what elite defenses do.  

 

None of this is to say the Bills D is trash.  There's plenty of talent, and with a couple of pieces, they will look very "complete".  The first few games were kind of skewed by the fact that they weren't getting many/any turnovers, and certainly weren't converting them into defensive touchdowns.  The 2017 iteration of Buffalo's defense had shades of the 2018 Bears defense:  they capitalized on their big defensive plays; we're not seeing that much this year.  For the first half of the season especially, it would be turnover on defense, then Bills offense goes three and out again (or gives the ball right back).

 

Now whether you can have a shutdown defense like the 2000 Ravens Defense or the 85 Bears... that's another discussion.  I'm guessing in the current NFL it's folly to think you can hold teams down every week and squeak by in 13-10 defensive struggles.  I'm afraid the head coach thinks this is still feasible.

 

 

[Stank_Nasty]

26 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

It's 28 of the 359 points teams have scored against the Bills so far.

 

The Defense is there to prevent the other team from scoring.  They do that by getting off the field before the other teams scores.  You can't add the ppg allowed, plus the 13th ranked 3rd down conversion percentage, plus the 10th worst RZ conversion %....and "easily" get the 5th best Defense in the league.

 

 

They are advantages for sure.  But the job of the D is the same--even on  a short field.  The Jags Offense has a higher TO per play % than the Bills.

 

 

More like 8 than 4.

a job made much easier when your teams have only 7, 10, 11, 11, and 11 giveaways as opposed to 22 in just over half a season.  I have absolutely no clue how you gloss over that so easily. its absurd.

8 minutes ago, technobot said:

I agree with the sentiment if they were a truly "best in the NFL" defense, they wouldn't have given up so many points, bottom-line.  Historically bad offense or not, a true #1 defense doesn't get run over against Baltimore or San Diego like the Bills D.  Whether it was one half or not doesn't matter.  Throw Indy into the mix, Derek Anderson notwithstanding.

 

For a defense predicated on bend but don't break, they've broken plenty this year.  Once again, I'm not exonerating the offense or special teams; the inability to play "complementary football" has put the D in tough spots.  But as Chan Gailey once said, sometimes in football it comes down to "whipping the man in front of you".  The Bears game gave the Bills D a statistical boost because the massive penalty yards aren't counted in yards allowed.  The D still could have stepped up and held the Bears to field goals.  They could have stopped Houston marching right down field to kick the go-ahead field goal.  Shutting teams when the chips are down, no matter how tired you are, in spite of your offense... that's what elite defenses do.  

 

None of this is to say the Bills D is trash.  There's plenty of talent, and with a couple of pieces, they will look very "complete".  The first few games were kind of skewed by the fact that they weren't getting many/any turnovers, and certainly weren't converting them into defensive touchdowns.  The 2017 iteration of Buffalo's defense had shades of the 2018 Bears defense:  they capitalized on their big defensive plays; we're not seeing that much this year.  For the first half of the season especially, it would be turnover on defense, then Bills offense goes three and out again (or gives the ball right back).

 

Now whether you can have a shutdown defense like the 2000 Ravens Defense or the 85 Bears... that's another discussion.  I'm guessing in the current NFL it's folly to think you can hold teams down every week and squeak by in 13-10 defensive struggles.  I'm afraid the head coach thinks this is still feasible.

 

 

going into the 4th quarter the bills d had given up 17 points. I don't know how much more you can ask for in those circumstances.

 

it would take a generational type defense to overcome the obstacles put in play by the bills offense. people apparently forget it was HISTORICALLY bad before the jets game.

Edited November 15, 2018 by Stank_Nasty

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Stank_Nasty said:

a job made much easier when your teams have only 7, 10, 11, 11, and 11 giveaways as opposed to 22 in just over half a season.  I have absolutely no clue how you gloss over that so easily. its absurd.

going into the 4th quarter the bills d had given up 17 points. I don't know how much more you can ask for in those circumstances.

 

it would take a generational type defense to overcome the obstacles put in play by the bills offense. people apparently forget it was HISTORICALLY bad before the jets game.

 

The Jags have more offensive TOs per snap than the Bills.  They have lost 10 fumbles and had 9 ints.......that equals 19 TO's by my math--only 3 more than the Bills.

 

In the 4th Q of the Bears game, the Bears quickly scored another FG then the Bills O had a 75 yard, nearly 8 min TD drive.  The Bills D came out and gave up another quick TD letting the Bears go 50 yards (on an idiotic PI by Gaines) in a minute.

 

Also, the Buffalo D is 3rd in the league in yardage given up in penalties. 4th in overall number of penalties.

Edited November 15, 2018 by Mr. WEO

[Stank_Nasty]

16 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

The Jags have more offensive TOs per snap than the Bills.  They have lost 10 fumbles and had 9 ints.......that equals 19 TO's by my math--only 3 more than the Bills.

right and they are only allowing 1 defensive point less per game than the bills. 

 

I don't think anyone would debate that the jags have a very good defense. they are suffering from an inept turnover prone offense, just as the bills defense is. the jags were universally regarded as a top 3 defense coming into this year. probably still should be... and that team is a perfect example of how a bad offense can skew a great defenses stats.

 

you kinda proved my point for me actually.

.

Edited November 15, 2018 by Stank_Nasty

[Mr. WEO]

4 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

right and they are only allowing 1 defensive point less per game than the bills. 

 

I don't think anyone would debate that the jags have a very good defense. they are suffering from an inept turnover prone offense, just as the bills defense is. the jags were universally regarded as a top 3 defense coming into this year. probably still should be... and that team is a perfect example of how a bad offense can skew a great defenses stats.

 

you kinda proved my point for me actually.

 

3 points.

 

 

[Stank_Nasty]

Just now, Mr. WEO said:

 

3 points.

 

 

huh? taking all scores given up by just the defenses the bills are only allowing one more point per game. did you not look at the chart that was posted on the prior page? are you choosing not to just for the sake of being difficult?

 

listen, I don't think the bills are the tops defense overall in the NFL. but the numbers, given some context, suggest they have an argument for top 5 and at the very least are much better the pretenders you have been claiming they are for weeks now.

[billsfan89]

I think it is legit or at least not too far off. The defense is a top 5 unit in the league in my opinion. The defense boasts a top 5 safety tandem in the league, a top 5 corner in the league, a rookie anchoring the slot corner position, a pro-bowl caliber linebacker (Milano), a high end rookie linebacker (Edumonds), a pair of  good pass rushers in Hughes and Lorax, Star is a good interior run defender and the front 7 rolls deep with guys like Kyle, Phillips, Shaq, Murphy (when healthy) and Cam. Outside of CB 2 I don't see much of a weakness on the defense. Can anyone name 5 defenses better than the Bills right now?

[Stank_Nasty]

1 minute ago, billsfan89 said:

I think it is legit or at least not too far off. The defense is a top 5 unit in the league in my opinion. The defense boasts a top 5 safety tandem in the league, a top 5 corner in the league, a rookie anchoring the slot corner position, a pro-bowl caliber linebacker (Milano), a high end rookie linebacker (Edumonds), a pair of  good pass rushers in Hughes and Lorax, Star is a good interior run defender and the front 7 rolls deep with guys like Kyle, Phillips, Shaq, Murphy (when healthy) and Cam. Outside of CB 2 I don't see much of a weakness on the defense. Can anyone name 5 defenses better than the Bills right now?

I know somebody who can probably name 10...….. 

[nedboy7]

3-7 

legit. 

 

[Mr. WEO]

4 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

I think it is legit or at least not too far off. The defense is a top 5 unit in the league in my opinion. The defense boasts a top 5 safety tandem in the league, a top 5 corner in the league, a rookie anchoring the slot corner position, a pro-bowl caliber linebacker (Milano), a high end rookie linebacker (Edumonds), a pair of  good pass rushers in Hughes and Lorax, Star is a good interior run defender and the front 7 rolls deep with guys like Kyle, Phillips, Shaq, Murphy (when healthy) and Cam. Outside of CB 2 I don't see much of a weakness on the defense. Can anyone name 5 defenses better than the Bills right now?

 

 

I would agree with a lot of this, except the safeties.  The weakest link on the D.

[RememberTheRockpile]

13 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Yes.  The 27 points excluded the turnover TDs. 

Well it was 28 but don't you mean it included the turnover TD's?

[RememberTheRockpile]

Went through all the games and made a list of where the special teams or offense put the defense in a not so advantageous position. Drive start is where the Bills gave up the ball to the other team.

 

Opponent	Drive Start	Yards Gained	Result
Baltimore	Bills 20	-3	FG
Baltimore	Bills 29	8	FG
Baltimore	Bills 14	24	TD
Baltimore	Bills 1	1	TD
Chargers	Bills 38	38	TD
Chargers	Bills 16	11	FG
Titans	Bills 25	18	FG
Texans	Bills 29	39	TD
Texans	Bills 21	7	FG
Colts	Bills 32	14	FG
Colts	Bills 2	2	TD
Colts	Bills 20	20	TD
Patriots	Bills 29	22	FG
Bears	Bills 37	42	TD
Bears	Bills 23	23	TD
Bears	Bills 28	1	FG

 

There are 8 FG all of which it can be reasonably argued were already in FG range when the defense went back on the field. Of the 8 TD's four of those drives started in the red zone. Two of the TD's were with a starting field position of the 1 and 2 yard line. These drives account for 80 of the 251 points scored against the Bills. Add in the pick 6's (3) and the fumble returned for a TD for a total of 28 points given up by the offense brings it to 108 points. I find it hard to put a lot of blame on the defense for this seasons less than spectacular performance.  

[LSHMEAB]

3 minutes ago, RememberTheRockpile said:

Went through all the games and made a list of where the special teams or offense put the defense in a not so advantageous position. Drive start is where the Bills gave up the ball to the other team.

 

Opponent	Drive Start	Yards Gained	Result
Baltimore	Bills 20	-3	FG
Baltimore	Bills 29	8	FG
Baltimore	Bills 14	24	TD
Baltimore	Bills 1	1	TD
Chargers	Bills 38	38	TD
Chargers	Bills 16	11	FG
Titans	Bills 25	18	FG
Texans	Bills 29	39	TD
Texans	Bills 21	7	FG
Colts	Bills 32	14	FG
Colts	Bills 2	2	TD
Colts	Bills 20	20	TD
Patriots	Bills 29	22	FG
Bears	Bills 37	42	TD
Bears	Bills 23	23	TD
Bears	Bills 28	1	FG

 

There are 8 FG all of which it can be reasonably argued were already in FG range when the defense went back on the field. Of the 8 TD's four of those drives started in the red zone. Two of the TD's were with a starting field position of the 1 and 2 yard line. These drives account for 80 of the 251 points scored against the Bills. Add in the pick 6's (3) and the fumble returned for a TD for a total of 28 points given up by the offense brings it to 108 points. I find it hard to put a lot of blame on the defense for this seasons less than spectacular performance.  

If they're holding opponents to 50% TD's on those possessions, it actually makes the overall 67% rate look even worse.

 

They need to fix that.

[Nihilarian]

9 hours ago, nedboy7 said:

3-7 

legit. 

 

Exactly!

 

Lies, damned lies and statistics.

 

Fans love to roll around in the stats like they mean everything. My eyes tell me a different story.

 

Game one, blowout loss 3-47 and that Bills defense started so slowly that mediocre Ravens offense scored 3 rushing TDs, 3 passing TDs. Bills QBs sacked 6 times.

Game two, 20-31 loss to the Chargers and it really wasn't that close as the Bolts went up 28-6 at the half. Bills QBs sacked 5 times.

Game three, 27-6 reverse blowout win because the Bills got the lead and capitalized on it all game Bills up 27-0 at the half. Vikes QBs sacked 4 times.

Game four, 22-0 blowout by the Pack. They get the lead and the Bills can't run(16 rushes for 58 yards)Can't throw and Bills QBs sacked 7 times.

Game five, 13-12 win over Tenn as the Bills get the lead and hold it all game rushing 43 times for 144 yards, 1 TD. 

Game six, 13-20 loss. The Bills defense started slowly again. Still, If Allen doesn't get injured this might be a win. Peterman 2 picks. Bills sacked Houston QB 7 times! 

Game seven, 37-5 blowout loss to the 2-5 Colts. Bills D stunk against the run allowing 37 rushes for 220 yards, allowed Luck to have his way with 4 TD passes. 0 sacks on Luck

Game eight, 25-6 loss as the Bills defense kept it close for 3 QTRs. Bills went pass happy, only rushing for 19 times, 46 yards. 

Game nine, 41-9 blowout loss to the Bears. Bills D didn't allow a score in the first QTR. Fumble, Then Peterman throwing 3 picks. Bills 4 turnovers/

Game ten, Bills win 41-10 Blowout the Jets. Bills pounding the rock 46 times for 212 yards, 2 TDs. Bills get the lead and capitalized on it.

 

When the Bills lose they get behind in points and go pass happy while forgetting about the run game and more importantly the best player on offense in Shady McCoy. The defense is on the field all game and have been blown out in 5 of 10 games. Sorry, my eyes tell me that good defenses don't allow such disparaging blowouts so many times in a season

 

When the Bills win they sorta look like the 2001-2010 Peyton Manning Colts when they would get an early lead and then let loose their pass rush. This also allows the Bills run game to work because the Bills OC actually starts running the ball more. When it rains it pours and when the Bills get the lead in games so much is different. The defense in the wins look really great and conversely in losses they look really bad at times.

 

This years Bills defense might actually be a top 5 defense if they focused on running the ball even when they get behind in points. It would also help those young inexperienced QBs and the older, still learning the playbook QBs. The Bills OC simplified the offense, ran the ball and dominated a pretty good Jets defense.