Is No. 1 Ranking Legit or a Mirage?

[Domdab99]

47, 41, 37, 31

 

Any team that has given up that many points in 4 games can't have the best defense. 

[RememberTheRockpile]

40 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

The Chicago game is an example of how they really aren't that good of a defense.  They were hardly on the field (26 min), yet they surrendered 27 points.

 

The first TD drive the Bears started at the Bills 37 yard line. The second was off a fumble by Croom returned for a TD. The 3rd TD was a Peterman pick 6 special. The fourth TD was also on a short field starting at the Bills 23 yard line. Half the points happened while the defense sat on the sideline watching. 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

On 11/13/2018 at 1:17 PM, John from Riverside said:

Im trying to figure out how it is so good when the offense has been so bad

 

They have been on the field for a looooooong time

 

Makes it even more impressive to be number1. 3 and outs. QB play. Peterman Picks, short fields all off that

1 hour ago, Domdab99 said:

47, 41, 37, 31

 

Any team that has given up that many points in 4 games can't have the best defense. 

Peterman among other QB play huge play in that.

[formerlyofCtown]

On 11/13/2018 at 12:45 PM, jr1 said:

a lot of short fields from Peterman picks

we are top 3 in defensive snaps which would siggest this isnt the really the case.  That is actually a good explonation of scoring against us.

Edited November 15, 2018 by formerlyofCtown

[formerlyofCtown]

13 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'm pretty sure we will end up a top 10 unit this year. When you look at what is left schedule wise..... Bortles, the Jets again, the Dolphins twice and Detroit. Unless the Patriots absolutely whack us there is a fair chance this will end up a top 5 defense, wasted on a 5 win team.

When I consider what our D has been through because of the offense there is no doubt that they are #1.  There is an article that points out a few important details  Where teams with similar circumstances as far as plays against and the fact we have played one more game than certain teams.  You should read if you havent.  Those other teams are all toward the bottom in D btw.

[Nihilarian]

On ‎11‎/‎13‎/‎2018 at 1:20 PM, ShadyBillsFan said:

where are people getting their stats?

 

I said this int he other We Have the Best Defense thread.

 

TOTAL defense Net Total Yards Leaders the Bills are #7.  

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/position/defense

 

Yards per game yes #1. 

 

Total passing 4th and Per Pass  Yds Per game  2nd 

Rushing 14 and 12 

 

Yep, #1 in yards allowed, #19 in points allowed. 

 

Just think, imagine how good this years defense would look if they had a run game/offense in those 7 loses...and they didn't at all.  Five of those Bills loses were blowouts is the big reason why the points allowed is so crazy bad. 

 

With 6 games to go will the Bills finally find an offense in each of those games?

[RememberTheRockpile]

13 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

Yep, #1 in yards allowed, #19 in points allowed. 

The #19 in points allowed includes the 28 points the offense gave away (3 pick 6's and a fumble). Removing all the TD's and safeties given up by the offense and special teams for all the teams moves the Bills defensive unit rank to #12 on points allowed.  

[BigDingus]

On 11/13/2018 at 11:42 AM, st pete gogolak said:

So our D is No. 1 in total defense, No. 2 in YPP, top ten in number of plays against (which makes the first two stats all that more impressive), middle of the pack in third down conversion, sacks and interceptions.  Another poster opined that the high ranking was a result of teams "taking their foot off the gas" in second half of games.  Anyone have any stats to back that up or argue against it?  I look at the defense as good to very good, not great.  Certainly playoff caliber with a half way decent offense.  I'm hoping we don't totally ignore the defense in the off-season.  Make an upgrade at CB opposite White, look for upgrade at OLB, sign J. Phillips, entice K. Williams to come back for another year.  If they finished with #1 pick (which won't come close to happening), I wouldn't mind picking Bosa to upgrade from good to great.  Of course, it shows the state of the league when a #1 D gets you  3 -7.  No matter what moves are made next year, to a large extent it all depends on Allen. 

 

What does "total defense," even mean? Because according to ESPN, "Total Defense" is yards allowed, and Baltimore is ranked #1 with Buffalo at #7.

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/position/defense

 

And if I go to any other category, Buffalo still isn't number 1. I guess they use another metric.

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

 

What does "total defense," even mean? Because according to ESPN, "Total Defense" is yards allowed, and Baltimore is ranked #1 with Buffalo at #7.

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/position/defense

 

And if I go to any other category, Buffalo still isn't number 1. I guess they use another metric.

 

We are only not #1 because the 6 teams above us have had their bye. We are #1 in yards allowed per game (the second column on that table). After this weekend we will, almost certainly be #1 in total yards allowed, unless Baltimore allow less than 300 yards of total offense.

 

Edited November 15, 2018 by GunnerBill

[mjt328]

I don't like to rely purely on statistics, because they can be very misleading.

 

Saying opposing offenses may have "laid off the gas" with big leads against us is a legitimate point.  Just like defenses with big leads often allow garbage-time points and yards.  At the same time, a stat like Points Per Game doesn't account for the multiple turnovers returned for scores and short-fields.

 

From my eyes (and I do watch other teams around the league), I think it's safe to say the Bills are currently Top 5 in the NFL.

It's important to look at what the team is NOW and not just what it was back in the first quarter of Week 1.  They started the season playing very poorly (Baltimore and San Diego).  But adjustments were made around halftime on Week 2, and things really started clicking at that point.  We've also seen massive improvements from Tremaine Edmunds and from our #2 corner spot.  Both were getting picked on early, and have since held their own.

 

In my opinion, the only real hiccup since halftime of the Chargers game was against the Colts. 

I'm not holding the blowout by the Bears against them.  They had a shutout in the 1st Quarter.  The first TD they allowed was on a short field (37 Yard Line).  Then the Bears got a Fumble Return TD, an Interception Return TD and another short field (23 Yard Line).  The Defense had no reason to play hard, knowing we had no chance of coming back.

 

 

[Mr. WEO]

10 hours ago, RememberTheRockpile said:

The first TD drive the Bears started at the Bills 37 yard line. The second was off a fumble by Croom returned for a TD. The 3rd TD was a Peterman pick 6 special. The fourth TD was also on a short field starting at the Bills 23 yard line. Half the points happened while the defense sat on the sideline watching. 

 

Yes.  The 27 points excluded the turnover TDs.  37 yard line for a rested D early in the game?  Make them punt.  At worst a FG.

 

The point is that for a top 3 or top 5 D, it shouldn't be inevitable that a team is going to score a TD if they have a "short field".

 

 

[thebandit27]

It's worth noting, since the subject of defensive ppg allowed keeps coming up, that I had Buffalo at 14th in the league when normalizing the data to account for defensive and ST scores allowed per team.

 

I haven't updated it in a week, so that may no longer be the case, but I do know that Buffalo has allowed a league-high 4 defensive TDs.  Indy has allowed 3, and nobody else has allowed more than 2.

 

UPDATE: I re-ran the data set, and here's what it looks like...

1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	9	32.3	290.7		2	30.7	32
2	Cincinnati Bengals	9	32	288	1	1	30.4	31
3	Oakland Raiders	9	30.2	271.8		1	29.4	30
4	Atlanta Falcons	9	28.2	253.8		1	27.4	29
5	Detroit Lions	9	27.1	243.9	1	2	24.8	23
6	San Francisco 49ers	10	26.6	266		2	25.2	26
7	Indianapolis Colts	9	26.6	239.4		3	24.3	22
8	Cleveland Browns	10	26.3	263		1	25.6	28
9	Carolina Panthers	9	25.8	232.2		1	25.0	25
9	New Orleans Saints	9	25.8	232.2		1	25.0	25
11	Miami Dolphins	10	25.6	256	1	2	23.5	17
12	New York Jets	10	25.4	254			25.4	27
13	New York Giants	9	25.3	227.7		2	23.7	20
14	Buffalo Bills	10	25.1	251		4	22.3	12
15	Arizona Cardinals	9	25	225		2	23.4	16
16	Green Bay Packers	9	24	216		1	23.2	15
16	Kansas City Chiefs	10	24	240			24.0	21
18	Denver Broncos	9	23.7	213.3			23.7	19
19	New England Patriots	10	23.6	236			23.6	18
20	Pittsburgh Steelers	9	23.2	208.8			23.2	14
21	Los Angeles Rams	10	23.1	231			23.1	13
22	Minnesota Vikings	9	22.7	204.3	1	2	20.4	9
23	Jacksonville Jaguars	9	22.1	198.9		1	21.3	11
24	Seattle Seahawks	9	21.3	191.7		2	19.7	8
25	Los Angeles Chargers	9	20.7	186.3	2	1	18.4	5
26	Houston Texans	9	20.4	183.6			20.4	10
27	Philadelphia Eagles	9	20.3	182.7		1	19.5	7
28	Chicago Bears	9	19.4	174.6	2		17.8	3
28	Washington Redskins	9	19.4	174.6			19.4	6
30	Dallas Cowboys	9	19	171		1	18.2	4
31	Baltimore Ravens	9	17.8	160.2			17.8	2
32	Tennessee Titans	9	16.8	151.2	1		16.0	1

 

First number column is games played, followed by total PPG against, then total points against, then ST TDs against, then defensive TDs against.  The final two columns are defensive PPG against (assuming that each TD is worth 7 points) and ranking in defensive PPG against, respectively.

 

Buffalo ranks 12th in the league in defensive PPG allowed...do with that what you will.

Edited November 15, 2018 by thebandit27

[mjt328]

47 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Yes.  The 27 points excluded the turnover TDs.  37 yard line for a rested D early in the game?  Make them punt.  At worst a FG.

 

The point is that for a top 3 or top 5 D, it shouldn't be inevitable that a team is going to score a TD if they have a "short field".

 

 

It's not inevitable.  But it does happen.  Even the best defenses let up touchdowns.

 

Take a look at the other top defenses in the NFL right now.  Everyone has bad drives and even bad games.

 

All things considered, I would have a very hard time coming up with 5 defenses currently better than Buffalo.

 

 

[colin]

what gets me excited about the D is that we really do not have that much talent on D.

 

we obviously have some key bits who make a big impact (houghs, Tre, less consistently but Edmunds and Milano), but this is a compliment of players playing in a well coached scheme. 

 

the wheels have fallen off a couple times (first 6 quarters were on pace to be as bad as our O is), but if you throw all the data together, we are still the best D in the nfl wrt YPG.  top 12 or so in points, and that's likely to be top 8 or so by the end of the season.

[Mr. WEO]

16 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

It's not inevitable.  But it does happen.  Even the best defenses let up touchdowns.

 

Take a look at the other top defenses in the NFL right now.  Everyone has bad drives and even bad games.

 

All things considered, I would have a very hard time coming up with 5 defenses currently better than Buffalo.

 

 

 

Titans, Ravens, Bears, Jags, Skins, Texans....

 

That wasn't very hard.  Look at 1st downs allowed, 3rd down conversion rate.  They are fairly closely clustered, even with the Bills.  Yet the Bills are the outlier with PPG allowed.  They are only 14th in red zone attempts against them, yet they are the 10th worst in RZ % scores prevented.

 

You could argue that the Bills and the Jets have similar Defenses (4.9 v 5.4 ypp, 18.7 v 19.8 1st downs allowed per game, 38 v 33% 3rd down conversion rate, 25.1 vs 25.4 ppg, 67 v 50% RZ success).  No one would say that the Jets D is in the top 5--unless the only stat you are looking at is yards per game. 

[Bill from NYC]

On ‎11‎/‎13‎/‎2018 at 4:56 PM, joesixpack said:

It's so nice seeing the negative people around doing their best to poo-poo the one bright spot on the team.

Kudos to you all. Kudos indeed!

 

I know, right? The nerve of posters to state their views on a message board if they disagree with you!!!!!

 

This defense is better than the 86 Bears and the old Steel Curtain and there is NO room for any discussion.

 

Thank you.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

21 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

I know, right? The nerve of posters to state their views on a message board if they disagree with you!!!!!

 

This defense is better than the 86 Bears and the old Steel Curtain and there is NO room for any discussion.

 

Thank you.

 

Don't be an ass, Bill. The beef is legitimate, there are THOUSANDS of other threads crapping on the team. It's actually refreshing to see one that gives some positive credit. Well, to me at least.

 

 

[mjt328]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Titans, Ravens, Bears, Jags, Skins, Texans....

 

That wasn't very hard.  Look at 1st downs allowed, 3rd down conversion rate.  They are fairly closely clustered, even with the Bills.  Yet the Bills are the outlier with PPG allowed.  They are only 14th in red zone attempts against them, yet they are the 10th worst in RZ % scores prevented.

 

You could argue that the Bills and the Jets have similar Defenses (4.9 v 5.4 ypp, 18.7 v 19.8 1st downs allowed per game, 38 v 33% 3rd down conversion rate, 25.1 vs 25.4 ppg, 67 v 50% RZ success).  No one would say that the Jets D is in the top 5--unless the only stat you are looking at is yards per game. 

 

Even if you think those teams are better, that still puts the Bills in the Top 6-7.

 

I've already stated why I believe Buffalo's PPG is misleading.  I don't have the time to break down each of these teams and know for sure.  But my personal observation is that Buffalo has a ridiculously high amount of points scored from either turnovers returned as touchdowns or field goals where the opponent already started in scoring position.  They also seem to have a very high number of drives starting on the wrong side of the 50, and I wouldn't be surprised if time of possession were very lopsided.

 

But my biggest point to consider... Buffalo's two worst defensive performances came in Weeks 1 and 2. 

I think it's fair to say that Buffalo's defensive stats are being weighted down heavily by those two games.  And it's fair to say that many of the weak spots people attacked in the first 6 quarters of the season, have been locked down for the most part since halftime against the Chargers.  Compare that to teams like Jacksonville and Baltimore, who have been going the opposite direction over the last month.

 

 

[Mr. WEO]

23 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Even if you think those teams are better, that still puts the Bills in the Top 6-7.

 

I've already stated why I believe Buffalo's PPG is misleading.  I don't have the time to break down each of these teams and know for sure.  But my personal observation is that Buffalo has a ridiculously high amount of points scored from either turnovers returned as touchdowns or field goals where the opponent already started in scoring position.  They also seem to have a very high number of drives starting on the wrong side of the 50, and I wouldn't be surprised if time of possession were very lopsided.

 

But my biggest point to consider... Buffalo's two worst defensive performances came in Weeks 1 and 2. 

I think it's fair to say that Buffalo's defensive stats are being weighted down heavily by those two games.  And it's fair to say that many of the weak spots people attacked in the first 6 quarters of the season, have been locked down for the most part since halftime against the Chargers.  Compare that to teams like Jacksonville and Baltimore, who have been going the opposite direction over the last month.

 

 

 

The defensive TDs scored by the other team aren't counted (above you said it was 4 TDs, not exactly a "ridiculous amount over 10 games). 

 

The time of possession is not lopsided The Defense is on the field just under 30 min per game.

 

The 1st 2 games were bad, but against NE and Indy, in the end, they gave up 376 and 387 yards total and over 100 yards rushing in both and produced zero turnovers.  In the Indy game, the D game up TD drives of 75, 74, and 82 yards---in a row, before half time.  Against the pats, they gave up scoring drives of 73, 58 and 85 yards. 

 

What part of that is "locked down"?

[Chuck Schick]

Good, improving D... but with a grain of salt. 

Opposing teams would be stupid to not be fairly conservative offensively, knowing that they'll only need to score 17-20 points to win.  

You're not getting the other offense's best shot, in other words.