Is No. 1 Ranking Legit or a Mirage?

[vorpma]

34 minutes ago, BillsRdue said:

Overrated for now. Top 10, sure, but there lots of points given up, lots of 3rd down conversions, not a lot of turnovers or sacks. It's a solid but not elite defense. Let's see how things shape up if we field a competent chain moving offense.

Good post, again, 2019 is the make or break year for the current regime!

[LSHMEAB]

They're a good unit, but need to add another edge rusher to be dominant.

 

 

[freddyjj]

3 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

The defense is ok.   If it is the NFL's best defense, that says more about the NFL state of defenses than it does the Bills. 

I suspect the stats are distorted by the fact that every Bills game has been a blow out one way or the other.  In the games where the Bills are getting blown out, teams opposing them don't have a lot of incentive to go for big plays, so that may contribute to the favorable YPP.  

 

My concern with the D has more to with replacing LoRax and Kyle, than their level of performance. Those guys have not been small cogs.  

 

kudos on the insight here.  The defense will need a slippery 3 technique like Kyle next year - Ed Oliver would fit the bill.  Lorax is a unicorn - can play standing up at SAM, as a pass rusing DE or inside at DT in a Cheetah Rush package.  There are dudes coming out of college who are hybrids and have to believe that OBD is IDing them.  I would also list DE as an issue as Murphy is a potential injury settlement and Shaq is entering option year.  

[H2o]

The defensive numbers would be even better if we just had last year's offensive production. The fact they are on the field so much and the amount of turnovers we have had, especially on our side of the 50, hasn't helped them at all. Giving teams a short field makes it a lot easier to put points up of course. See the Colts and Bears games. 

Edited November 13, 2018 by H2o

[Chicken Boo]

The Bills do not have the best defense in football.

[nucci]

We have a very good defense....I expect Edmunds to start to dominate next year...If Milano continues his improvement we will be solid at LB

[LSHMEAB]

23 minutes ago, thurst44 said:

Not really true in gauging whether it's a truly great defense as if we have the worst drive start point (as i believe we do), that impacts ppg. For example, if the opponent picks the ball off at the 20, the D pushes them back to the 27 in a 3 & out, we give up 3 pts, but that's not really the defense's fault. I'm not saying that ypg are more indicative.

That would be a rarity considering the Bills are near the bottom in red zone defense. It's been a problem since McDermott's arrival. The solution could be adding a dynamic egde rusher. Hughes is a solid player and Milano is a beast at what he does, but it's not quite enough. 

[Mr. WEO]

25 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Im trying to figure out how it is so good when the offense has been so bad

 

They have been on the field for a looooooong time

 

 

Not true.  They are 26th in the time they are on the field.  

[HappyDays]

As of last week we had the #2 defense in DVOA, 3rd in pass and 10th in run. DVOA takes into account opponents running out the clock and that sort of thing so no mirage here. We may go up to #1 this week, the new rankings will be posted later today.

[thebandit27]

Purely by the numbers:

 

They rank 14th overall in defensive points per game allowed (which is normalized to remove all defensive TDs allowed).

They rank 2nd overall in yards per play allowed

7th in 1st downs surrendered per game

13th in 3rd down conversion rate against

Tied-8th in total takeaways

 

I would say that the above indicates that they're very good, but not top-5

[jahnyc]

We also have games coming up against the Jets, the Dolphins (2), the Lions and the Jaguars.  This may help our defensive rankings since none of these teams are powerhouses on offense and some of these games may be played in cold weather conditions, which typically helps the defense.

[LeGOATski]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

As of last week we had the #2 defense in DVOA, 3rd in pass and 10th in run. DVOA takes into account opponents running out the clock and that sort of thing so no mirage here. We may go up to #1 this week, the new rankings will be posted later today.

You can tell it's not a mirage just by watching other defenses. People who undersell the defense are probably those who only watch the Bills game.

[NewEra]

41 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

where are people getting their stats?

 

I said this int he other We Have the Best Defense thread.

 

TOTAL defense Net Total Yards Leaders the Bills are #7.  

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/position/defense

 

Yards per game yes #1. 

 

Total passing 4th and Per Pass  Yds Per game  2nd 

Rushing 14 and 12 

 

There’s this thing called a bye week sir.  We haven’t had ours yet, meaning the teams with less yards have 1 less game

[Rochesterfan]

32 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

where are people getting their stats?

 

I said this int he other We Have the Best Defense thread.

 

TOTAL defense Net Total Yards Leaders the Bills are #7.  

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/position/defense

 

Yards per game yes #1. 

 

Total passing 4th and Per Pass  Yds Per game  2nd 

Rushing 14 and 12 

 

 

 

Net makes no no sense since we have not had our bye yet meaning we have a full game on many teams - that is why YPG is more important- once all the byes are done net and YPG should be equal.

 

I believe the Bills defense is legitimate- I also believe there is some anomaly’s present that impact it.  They have been blown out in several games (mostly due to the offense and TOs) - Points per game is misleading with the pick sixes and fumbles returned for TDs.  The Bills have also been unlucky getting TOs as they at one point had caused the most fumbles with the lowest recovery percentage and it was things like Baltimore with the fumble on the sideline touched by an out of bounds player or a lucky bounce back to the offense with a strip sack.

 

This defense is legitimately nasty as they dominated teams like Chicago, Minnesota, NYJ, Tennessee, Houston, and NE and yet were blown out in a couple of those games because the offense was so bad.

 

They made Watson, Brady, and Marriota look like sub par QBs and all have a good shot at the playoffs.

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

What's most interesting is that the Defense is built around a bend but don't break zone coverage style.  With that philosophy they "shouldn't" be sitting at the top in Yards Per Game.  They 'should' be giving up a ton of yards, but not as many points.  Very strange.  But for those who think it's a statistical mirage, you really don't get those after 10 games.  Those things occur much earlier in the season when you haven't played enough games to bend the average.

[Charles Romes]

Really good move to unload Dareus and his absurd salary.  Look at the decay of the Jags D over time. That kind of paycheck has to effect the locker room.   

[Yav]

#10 in number of plays is a big deal and that should really let you know the D is very good. 

The D played a lot better on Sunday vs the Jets simply because the O didn't have many 3 & outs. If they are allowed to rest this D will be great, but if the O is just gonna go 3 & out and put them back on the field they are going to get tired. 

 

Another thing that stood out vs the Jets was the speed at WR and the WR's ability to catch the damn ball, Kb not included. 

[Virgil]

It’s a mirage.  Opposing teams have an NFL best starting field position against us.  Also, we’ve had numerous games over by halftime, leading to a lot of rushing.  

 

Teams also aren’t as aggressive against us because they know we will just punt the ball right back.  

 

We are basically letting teams play half the field and half a game.  We are good, but we aren’t #1

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, mrags said:

Pretty much this. It’s easy to give only give up small amounts of yards when you have like 10 picks/fumbles in your own end zone. 

I actually looked this up the other day.  Average starting field position for our opponents is the 32 yardline or thereabouts according to the website.  Couple that with having way more time on the field than most and that shoots that theory down.  I had the same one, which is why I looked it up.

 

However, the website I looked at could be wrong.  I have to try and find a better website that I trust, but don't have time right now.

Edited November 13, 2018 by Scott7975

[nedboy7]

Defining stat: 302.2. The Bills are allowing only 302.2 yards per game, the best mark of any team in the NFL and Buffalo's best through 10 games since 2004. However, calling the Bills the league's best defense this season might be ignoring how they rank 19th in points allowed per game. Buffalo ranks 23rd in red zone defense, and opponents are starting with the best average field position seen in the NFL since 2010, which limits how many yards Buffalo's defense can give up.