3rdnlng Posted July 17, 2019 Posted July 17, 2019 5 hours ago, BeginnersMind said: Pelosi deserves the same treatment as Trump (for a different reason) for her "Make America white again" insult. Totally inappropriate. The "squad" deserves even more criticism. But a racist trope, from the president, is too far and he got the right rebuke he earned. See the pox on both their houses. 2
Chef Jim Posted July 17, 2019 Posted July 17, 2019 36 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said: Over/Under on when he'll be fired? 3 days. How long before Rosen gets Rosened? 1
3rdnlng Posted July 17, 2019 Posted July 17, 2019 2 hours ago, DC Tom said: Have you been asleep the past 10 years? Everything is racist. That's what "systemic racism" means. How long until Ocasio-Cortez tells her to go back where she came from? You know it's coming. She's just that clueless. What if she actually came from Jamaica, NY, mon? 2 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said: Not taking that bet. The twitter trolls were out in full force "defending" AOC in that Tweet. I wish the Republican party hadn't given up on NYS. I doubt this lady can win (Nancy was right when she said a glass of water with a D could win in AOC's district... AOC is pretty close to just that), but to at least help Republican candidates with a bit of seed money; would it really hurt the GOP that much? AOC has created a big opening what with her part in the loss of all of the Amazon jobs. If I were running against her I'd pound that thought over and over. 1
B-Man Posted July 17, 2019 Posted July 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said: AOC has created a big opening what with her part in the loss of all of the Amazon jobs. If I were running against her I'd pound that thought over and over. . 3
Deranged Rhino Posted July 17, 2019 Posted July 17, 2019 This is about the pressure for AOC to fire her CoS which she won't do (because he's her brain). 1 2
jrober38 Posted July 17, 2019 Posted July 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Deranged Rhino said: The people in the middle will have an easy choice in 2020. One side has literally gone insane and in the process ceded control of their party to the fringe left (which is fascist, not progressive). The country is still, largely, a centrist nation. Trump's policies by and large have been center to center right -- all the other BS aside. No one running right now on the left has a chance to beat Trump by winning over those middle voters. We've got 5.5 more years left of this. And if the left doesn't slow their roll and take back their party from the fringe, they won't have a party come 2025. I think it's way too early to say it's a sure thing, although I agree that all the Democrat Candidates are extremely weak. Most of the leading Dems are ahead of Trump in National Polls and his approval rating hasn't been able to stay above 42% nationally, while his disapproval rating has been over 50% for the last two years. You'll tell me the polls were wrong two years ago, and I guess they were. However Hillary did win the popular vote by 3,000,000 votes, which suggests the polls were actually right, they just couldn't account for the Electoral College and how it actually selects a President. Nancy Pelosi is the de facto head of the Democrat Party right now, and she's nowhere near as far left as "The Squad". She knows that they cannot defeat Trump with those type of policies, and that they will lose considerable trust by trying to impeach him. There's a reason she and people like AOC are feuding. Pelosi is very smart. She's a career politician who knows exactly what they need to do to beat him next year. They'll nominate someone left of centre who will run on raising taxes on the rich, and improving Obama Care, and it'll be interesting to see how it plays out. My guess is it will be an incredibly close election, with the Dems winning the popular vote again, but possibly losing the Electoral College by a small margin (they'll flip a couple swing states like Pennsylvania or Michigan where candidates like Biden and Bernie are currently 10 pts ahead of Trump). 1
Deranged Rhino Posted July 17, 2019 Posted July 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, jrober38 said: Most of the leading Dems are ahead of Trump in National Polls and his approval rating hasn't been able to stay above 42% nationally, while his disapproval rating has been over 50% for the last two years. What's interesting (to me) is his disapproval hasn't moved -- it's virtually the same as when he won -- while his approval has gone up. But I agree fully it's WAY too early to take anything from national polling on head to head races.
jrober38 Posted July 17, 2019 Posted July 17, 2019 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said: What's interesting (to me) is his disapproval hasn't moved -- it's virtually the same as when he won -- while his approval has gone up. But I agree fully it's WAY too early to take anything from national polling on head to head races. That's not really true of the beginning but it certainly is of the last 1.5-2 years. When he was elected, a lot of the independents who either elected him or didn't even bother voting are optimistic and want to give the President a chance. At the beginning his disapproval rating was around 42% for the first little while, before ballooning up to a high of 57% in the summer of 2017. His disapproval rating should worry him. If you're dissatisfied with the President, you're probably going to go vote. If half the electorate shows up on Election Day to vote against Trump, he's going to lose in a total landslide. Edited July 17, 2019 by jrober38
Buffalo_Gal Posted July 17, 2019 Posted July 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, jrober38 said: That's not really true of the beginning but it certainly is of the last 1.5-2 years. When he was elected, a lot of the independents who either elected him or didn't even bother voting are optimistic and want to give the President a chance. At the beginning his disapproval rating was around 42% for the first little while, before ballooning up to a high of 57% in the summer of 2017. His disapproval rating should worry him. If you're dissatisfied with the President, you're probably going to go vote. If half the electorate shows up on Election Day to vote against Trump, he's going to lose in a total landslide. To vote against him for.... one of the beauties on that wonderful slate the Ds are running? The democrats have a "hold your nose" vote coming up in 2020. That is never a sign of enthusiasm, and having independents break for that "hold your nose" candidate would really be something. 2
Buffalo_Gal Posted July 17, 2019 Posted July 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said: (short thread) The overnight internal snap-polls must have been horrendous. 4
jrober38 Posted July 17, 2019 Posted July 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said: To vote against him for.... one of the beauties on that wonderful slate the Ds are running? The democrats have a "hold your nose" vote coming up in 2020. That is never a sign of enthusiasm, and having independents break for that "hold your nose" candidate would really be something. Independents view Donald Trump as a hold your nose situation as well. Like in 2016, neither candidate is going to be popular. Many people will choose who they believe to be the less worse option. Also, the Dems are all over the map on policy. There are 20+ candidates and few of them share policies. When it's all said and done their candidate will probably be someone just left of centre running for President against Trump.
GG Posted July 17, 2019 Posted July 17, 2019 48 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said: This is about the pressure for AOC to fire her CoS which she won't do (because he's her brain). I'm sure that Nancy is sharing the prelim findings of the FEC investigations. 1
Buffalo_Gal Posted July 17, 2019 Posted July 17, 2019 (edited) 7 minutes ago, jrober38 said: Independents view Donald Trump as a hold your nose situation as well. Like in 2016, neither candidate is going to be popular. Many people will choose who they believe to be the less worse option. Also, the Dems are all over the map on policy. There are 20+ candidates and few of them share policies. When it's all said and done their candidate will probably be someone just left of centre running for President against Trump. I disagree. Not to say the democrats are not doing everything they can to paint President Trump as being icky, but when people are employed and can pay their bills, most people don't care if the President is brash and loud as long as he can deliver a good economy. Edited July 17, 2019 by Buffalo_Gal 2 1
leh-nerd skin-erd Posted July 17, 2019 Posted July 17, 2019 (edited) 59 minutes ago, jrober38 said: I think it's way too early to say it's a sure thing, although I agree that all the Democrat Candidates are extremely weak. Most of the leading Dems are ahead of Trump in National Polls and his approval rating hasn't been able to stay above 42% nationally, while his disapproval rating has been over 50% for the last two years. You'll tell me the polls were wrong two years ago, and I guess they were. However Hillary did win the popular vote by 3,000,000 votes, which suggests the polls were actually right, they just couldn't account for the Electoral College and how it actually selects a President. Nancy Pelosi is the de facto head of the Democrat Party right now, and she's nowhere near as far left as "The Squad". She knows that they cannot defeat Trump with those type of policies, and that they will lose considerable trust by trying to impeach him. There's a reason she and people like AOC are feuding. Pelosi is very smart. She's a career politician who knows exactly what they need to do to beat him next year. They'll nominate someone left of centre who will run on raising taxes on the rich, and improving Obama Care, and it'll be interesting to see how it plays out. My guess is it will be an incredibly close election, with the Dems winning the popular vote again, but possibly losing the Electoral College by a small margin (they'll flip a couple swing states like Pennsylvania or Michigan where candidates like Biden and Bernie are currently 10 pts ahead of Trump). Anything can happen between now and then. Personally I believe nothing until it's done. The polls, to my recollection, reflected a Hillary sweep into office, projecting both the prom queen vote and EC outcome. Certainly the analysis by the experts reflected that. I can't recall any analysis that suggested anything close to HC popular vote +3m but Trump takes the EC by 10pm on election night. Still, the dem front runner has yet to be determined and most of the fur flying has come from other dems. That changes at some point, and like trump, every candidate has warts. In other words, the current status quo is akin to all of the dems standing together at the edge of an ice cold pool on a hot summer day, each teasing the other to jump in first. When it goes national, well, the parallel is there are only two people left, and someone tosses a chainsaw into shark-filled water and one or the other has to get to it first to start the cutting. We shall see. Oh, and the wild card STILL remains that Trump has unrestricted access to all the secrets in the world, with the power to release/leak selectively. Edited July 17, 2019 by leh-nerd skin-erd
jrober38 Posted July 17, 2019 Posted July 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said: I disagree. Not to say the democrats are not doing everything they can to paint President Trump as being icky, but when people are employed and can pay their bills, most people don't care if the President is brash and loud as long as he can deliver a good economy. I think this applies for any President other than Trump. If this were true and applied to Trump his approval ratings would be significantly higher.
jrober38 Posted July 17, 2019 Posted July 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said: Anything can happen between now and then. Personally I believe nothing until it's done. The polls, to my recollection, reflected a Hillary sweep into office, projecting both the prom queen vote and EC outcome. Certainly the analysis by the experts reflected that. I can't recall any analysis that suggested anything close to HC popular vote +3m but Trump takes the EC by 10pm on election night. Still, the dem front runner has yet to be determined and most of the fur flying has come from other dems. That changes at some point, and like trump, every candidate has warts. In other words, the current status quo is akin to all of the dems standing together at the edge of an ice cold pool on a hot summer day, each teasing the other to jump in first. When it goes national, well, the parallel is there are only two people left, and someone tosses a chainsaw into shark-filled water and one or the other has to get to it first to start the cutting. We shall see. Oh, and the wild card STILL remains that Trump has unrestricted access to all the secrets in the world, with the power to release/leak selectively. I think the Dem candidates match up much better against Trump than they do against each other. The question becomes how much damage will they inflict upon each other to win the nomination? One on one, if any of the front runners can get up on a stage, and spar with Trump about policy, and "look Presidential" they've got a great shot. 2016 was hilarious in the sense that Hilary had no policies. She was a historically bad candidate with major baggage, and no policies. She tried to ride into office just because she was a woman, and the majority of independent voters couldn't stomach her and her past. Trump got by yielding a couple buzz words that fired up his base ("Build the wall", "Lock her up", etc) and the base ate it up. This time will be different. Whichever Democrat emerges from the pile will have real policies that will have got them to the top of the pile because they're popular policies among Democrats. This time, unless he figures out how to control the narrative, Trump is going to have to talk about detailed policy on the debate stage, which I don't think is his strength at all.
Buffalo_Gal Posted July 17, 2019 Posted July 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, jrober38 said: I think this applies for any President other than Trump. If this were true and applied to Trump his approval ratings would be significantly higher. Forget the polls. Most polls are either push or pull polls designed for a specific outcome, or cooked with select demographics. 1000 people in NYC and California who regularly vote democrat (regardless of voting affiliation) are not going to yield accurate results. The other issue is lack of landlines, and that people lie to pollsters. Heck, before the 2018 election I was at my MILs house (in Las Vegas) and hubby finally "let" me answer one of the bazillion political calls. I swear I was dancing with glee! (I wrote about it somewhere... probably the 2018 midterm thread.) Was what I said accurate for voting in Nevada? Nope. Do you think I was alone in messing with the poll calls? Unlikely. The pollsters probably need better methodology, and better subjects (LOL) as well as better questions, to get more accurate results. Could the polls be accurate? Sure. And, I could be a former Miss Universe. But, take the results with a grain of salt. Now, if you could get a hold of the internal polls, questions, and methodology... those polls might be worth something. 1
jrober38 Posted July 17, 2019 Posted July 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said: Forget the polls. Most polls are either push or pull polls designed for a specific outcome, or cooked with select demographics. 1000 people in NYC and California who regularly vote democrat (regardless of voting affiliation) are not going to yield accurate results. The other issue is lack of landlines, and that people lie to pollsters. Heck, before the 2018 election I was at my MILs house (in Las Vegas) and hubby finally "let" me answer one of the bazillion political calls. I swear I was dancing with glee! (I wrote about it somewhere... probably the 2018 midterm thread.) Was what I said accurate for voting in Nevada? Nope. Do you think I was alone in messing with the poll calls? Unlikely. The pollsters probably need better methodology, and better subjects (LOL) as well as better questions, to get more accurate results. Could the polls be accurate? Sure. And, I could be a former Miss Universe. But, take the results with a grain of salt. Now, if you could get a hold of the internal polls, questions, and methodology... those polls might be worth something. Sure. But as Rhino said, Trumps approval rating has been stuck at about 42% for two years now. We're talking about hundreds of polls, calling different people and the favourable vs unfavourable ratings have more or less remained constant for two full years. They can't all be wrong.
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