(hypothetical) Alabama vs. Bills spread

[Alphadawg7]

10 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I think that you missed the point. Those guys weren’t cherry picked at all. That is every Alabama defensive player, over the last 5 years, to go in the 1st 4 rounds. There will be a bunch more this year. There will be a bunch more next year.

 

You need to be 3 years out of high school to enter the NFL draft. Not every guy will play in the NFL next year. Not every guy will be there by the year after. Patrick Surtain Jr. is a true freshman, the number 1 CB recruit in the country, and a key player. Is he bad because he can’t be in the NFL until 2021? He’s on this team and ABSOLUTELY will be an NFL player, just not next year. That’s why you need a multi-year sample size.

 

Wrong.  We are talking about a single season defensive unit.  He picked ONLY the GOOD players over a 4 year period and left off all the guys who started for Bama and didn't make the NFL to validate 100% of THIS Bama team both making the NFL and mostly becoming GOOD players in the NFL.  

 

Name one Bama player that was a Pro Bowl player after 1 game in the NFL.  Silly question, because you cant.  This Bama defense has ZERO NFL experience, not one guy will be playing at an NFL Pro Bowl level first day in the NFL.

 

Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills have handling REAL Pro Bowl players and better defenses in the NFL.  Some of those have ELITE NFL players on them, even future HOF players.  

 

Meanwhile over 4 years of Bama football, he showed 3 TOTAL Pro Bowlers, some quality starters, and a few meh guys and a couple of busts while also ignoring all the guys who started for Bama and weren't good enough for the NFL.  But in the case of this make believe game, there is no ability to choose the best guys over 4 years...its this unit vs the Bills period.  And they are all NON NFL players who the day they step on an NFL field for the first time will NOT be playing at a season NFL player Pro Bowl level.  

Edited November 27, 2018 by Alphadawg7

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Wrong.  We are talking about a single season defensive unit.  He picked ONLY the GOOD players over a 4 year period and left off all the guys who started for Bama and didn't make the NFL to validate 100% of THIS Bama team both making the NFL and mostly becoming GOOD players in the NFL.  

 

No that list was to make a different point.

 

My primary point is the 2017 Bama starting defense will contrary to what you are saying all be in the NFL this time next year. 

 

Your response was to say "yea but being in the NFL means nothing Nathan Peterman was in the NFL 66% of players in the NFL bust" so what I was attempting to do was demonstrate with that list is that 66% of Bama players don't bust. 15% of those drafted in the first 4 rounds do. 

 

That means of that 2017 defense that all make the NFL 8 or 9 of whom make it as picked in the first 4 rounds apply the bust rate you have 1. So the chances are that of that 2017 defense that will all be in the NFL this time next year there are not going to be 4 or 5 or 6 busts. Actually it is much more likely that there are 1 or at most 2. 

 

The Bama defenders on previous teams who didnt get drafted in the first 4 rounds or didnt make the NFL at all are not relevant to that argument because we are talking about the 2017 defense where a minimum 8 and likely 9 are round 1-4 picks. 

Edited November 28, 2018 by GunnerBill

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Wrong.  We are talking about a single season defensive unit.  He picked ONLY the GOOD players over a 4 year period and left off all the guys who started for Bama and didn't make the NFL to validate 100% of THIS Bama team both making the NFL and mostly becoming GOOD players in the NFL.  

I just gave you the reason that you have to take a multi-year sample. Their careers overlap. Quinnen Williams, Raekwon Davis and Deionte Thompson will go in the 1st round this year. Patrick Surtain cannot go into the draft. He’s a future NFL player on this defense, this year. You can look at the 2018 Alabama defense as a unit but you can’t only count the guys in the NFL, in 2019, as all of the NFL players.

 

That is kind of Gunner’s point. This isn’t Syracuse, UB, or Boston College where the top guys make the NFL. The backups on Alabama were WAY more highly recruited than the top guys at a program like BC (or literally anywhere else). They are a roster of future NFL players. It’s just a matter of when their time to go to the league is. Over the most recent 5 year cycle (a full college career) they had 20 defensive players taken in rounds 1-4. That doesn’t count guys like Levi Wallace that didn’t get drafted or Shaun Dion Hamilton drafted after round 4. If anything, Gunner was very conservative when giving that list. There are plenty more guys that can be added to draw the line on “NFL player.”

[Magox]

The fact that we are discussing whether or not Alabama's defense is almost as good as any NFL defense is insane.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Magox said:

The fact that we are discussing whether or not Alabama's defense is almost as good as any NFL defense is insane.

 

Yea it is. I watched Cincy's game from the weekend this morning. I reckon 11 drunk blokes from my local pub who have never watched an NFL game let alone played in one could probably muster a better effort.

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You were the one trying to quote Peterman at me! I agree he is no qualifier for anyone but then don't hold him up as some evidence of anything. He is literally the worst Quarterback to start multiple NFL games in a quarter of a decade if not more. 

 

As for the Alabama defense.... that 2017 starting defense has 5 guys already playing at a good level in the NFL. This is the point. The odds are not the same when you are talking about defensive players who have come out of the University of Alabama over the last 4 or 5 years. It isn't 2/3 that fail. 

 

By the time the 2019 draft is done I think it is safe to assume that of those 11 2017 starters 8 will have been drafted in the first 4 rounds. Possibly 9 Miller I am not sure quite where he ends up going late day 2 is probably the ceiling day 3 more likely. 

 

Let's assume it is 8. Over the last FIVE drafts 20 Alabama defenders have been drafted in the first 4 rounds of the draft. Here they are:

 

CJ Mosely

Ha-Ha Clinton Dix

Landon Collins

Reggie Ragland

A'Shawn Robinson

Jarran Reed

Cyrus Jones

Marlon Humphrey

Jonathan Allen

Reuben Foster

Ryan Anderson

Dalvin Tomlinson

Tim Williams

Eddie Jackson

Minkah Fitzpatrick

Da'ron Payne

Rashaard Evans

Ronnie Harrison

Da'Shawn Hand

Anthony Averett

 

That is a mighty impressive list. The first 3 on it were all pro-bowlers within 3 years and when you read down after that these are not just guys, they are not just starters, they are in the vast majority of cases among the best 2 or 3 players on their defenses. These are high, high calibre guys. 

 

Try finding a bust on there. I can find one - Cyrus Jones who the Patriots drafted in the 2nd round in 2016 and released after 2 seasons with the team. He is now playing a special teamer in Baltimore. The second closest is Reggie Ragland where we all know the story pretty well but he is now a week in week out starter for the Chiefs (though a very average one). The third you might claim is Reuben Foster who has been a darn good footballer when he has been on the field but has had problems off it. Washington have just signed him but he is living in the last chance saloon we all agree. 

 

So say I give you 3. That is 3/20. That isn't close to two thirds, it isn't close to 50% it isn't even a 25% bust rate. This is the point. 

 

Even if people still think the Bills or the Cardinals or the 49ers... whoever.... cover their spread against Alabama - they have to stop parroting out this "College teams have great players and players who will never play in the pros." Picking a defensive starter from Nick Saban's Alabama Crimson Tide is just about the safest pick in the NFL draft. Overwhelmingly they are high level NFL contributors. 

 

This is not like any other college team. These guys are churning out pro-ready, high level NFL defenders year after year. 

I give you Collins, Tomlinson, Robinson, and Mosely. They're studs no doubt. But Clinton-Dix isn't that good, his Pro Bowl year was mostly due to a bunch of INTs imo, he got traded for a 4th, got torched by Prescott last week...he's not a high caliber guy. Humphrey is good, but he isn't even the best corner on his own team. Anderson, Williams, JAGS imo. Not high, high caliber. Rest are a bunch of rookies mostly...I don't think you can say the 'vast majority' of them are best 2 or 3 players on their defenses. Overselling these guys.

7 minutes ago, Magox said:

The fact that we are discussing whether or not Alabama's defense is almost as good as any NFL defense is insane.

I think they may be trolling.

[GunnerBill]

Just for good measure I have checked the Alabama day 1 defensive starters in 2016. 

 

All 11 are now in the NFL. All 11 were drafted in either 2017 or 2018. 

 

Of those 10 were drafted round 4 or earlier. All of those are on that list above and only Dion Hamilton (6th round went later). 

 

The Crimson Tide are sending full defenses to the NFL folks and guys who come in play right away and play well. There are no grocery baggers here. 

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No that list was to make a different point.

 

My primary point is the 2017 Bama starting defense will contrary to what you are saying all be in the NFL this time next year. 

 

Your response was to say "yea but being in the NFL means nothing Nathan Peterman was in the NFL 66% of players in the NFL bust" so what I was attempting to do was demonstrate with that list is that 66% of Bama players don't bust. 15% of those drafted in the first 4 rounds do. 

 

That means of that 2017 defense that all make the NFL 8 or 9 of whom make it as picked in the first 4 rounds apply the bust rate you have 1. So the chances are that of that 2017 defense that will all be in the NFL this time next year there are not going to be 4 or 5 or 6 busts. Actually it is much more likely that there are 1 or at most 2. 

 

The Bama defenders on previous teams who didnt get drafted in the first 4 rounds or didnt make the NFL at all are not relevant to that argument because we are talking about the 2017 defense where a minimum 8 and likely 9 are round 1-4 picks. 

 

Still dont agree with how you are using the math.

 

But, Alabama is not a magical school where all drafted players become good.  Over 4 years, it produced 3 Pro Bowlers (according to you)...4 years.  And you said it took them 3 years to reach that level.  

 

So even if what you believe is to be true, that all 11 will be in the NFL and most won't bust, that doesn't mean they will all be good.  And given Bama produced 3 Pro Bowlers out of 20 players over 4 years, thats less than 1 per season.  Meaning, 1 Pro Bowler...but lets do even more favorable math...thats about one of out 7 players drafted which would still equate to less than 2 players out of the 11 on this team. 

 

So using your own Math....this Bama defense MAY produce 1 or 2 eventual NFL Pro Bowlers, a few solid starters, a few meh players, and 1 or 2 busts.

 

Guess what an NFL starting roster doesn't have...busts.  So thats already a 2 player advantage to the offense.  Then you look at the fact that not all 11 will even be starters...lets give you a super favorable ratio again and say 7 of the 11 become NFL starters.  That still is a defense with 5 players made up of backups or worse.

 

And what do NFL starting defenses have?  11 starters.  They also have REAL Pro Bowlers, not Maybe guys who won't reach that ability until they get a lot more NFL experience.  

 

So again, you are fixated on this idea of 11 of them will make the NFL yet completely ignore:

1. They will not be playing at peak NFL form.  Those guys who may become Pro Bowlers one day will not be playing at an NFL Pro Bowl caliber in one game with no NFL experience under their belt.  So this Pro Bowl argument is completely invalid in the first place.
2. Most will not even be playing at NFL starter level yet as many of the guys drafted do not just walk into starting jobs, it often takes time, even seasons to work their way up to that level.
3. At least a few will be guys who are career backups.
4. At least a couple statistically are going to be guys who dont last in the NFL.

So what are you left...a Bama defense that has a couple of guys who MIGHT work their way UP to a Pro Bowl level in the NFL but aren't there yet...a handful guys that MIGHT work their way UP over time to a starter in the NFL, but aren't there yet.  And 4 or 5 guys who will have meh or worse NFL careers.  

 

Conclusion:  That Bama defense is NOT even close to the level of the Vikings defense we played, the Jags defense we played, or even the Jets defense we played.  We win 100% and we cover easily.  

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I give you Collins, Tomlinson, Robinson, and Mosely. They're studs no doubt. But Clinton-Dix isn't that good, his Pro Bowl year was mostly due to a bunch of INTs imo, he got traded for a 4th, got torched by Prescott last week...he's not a high caliber guy. Humphrey is good, but he isn't even the best corner on his own team. Anderson, Williams, JAGS imo. Not high, high caliber. Rest are a bunch of rookies mostly...I don't think you can say the 'vast majority' of them are best 2 or 3 players on their defenses. Overselling these guys.

I think they may be trolling.

 

Anderson and Williams are both having very good seasons. It is fair to say that they are not among the best players on their defenses that is true... but Hands, Robinson and Reed are. Humphrey IS the best corner on the Ravens. He is a top 20 corner in the league already to my mind. And Clinton-Dix is good. He has been every year he has been in the league. Green Bay traded him because they are against the cap and didn't want to pay him. As someone who watched their safety play without him on SNF that might be a decision they regret. 

[mannc]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Just for good measure I have checked the Alabama day 1 defensive starters in 2016. 

 

All 11 are now in the NFL. All 11 were drafted in either 2017 or 2018. 

 

Of those 10 were drafted round 4 or earlier. All of those are on that list above and only Dion Hamilton (6th round went later). 

 

The Crimson Tide are sending full defenses to the NFL folks and guys who come in play right away and play well. There are no grocery baggers here. 

 

 

So are you saying they wouldn’t be pancaked by Vlad Ducasse or terrorized by Chris Ivory?

[Alphadawg7]

12 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I just gave you the reason that you have to take a multi-year sample. Their careers overlap. Quinnen Williams, Raekwon Davis and Deionte Thompson will go in the 1st round this year. Patrick Surtain cannot go into the draft. He’s a future NFL player on this defense, this year. You can look at the 2018 Alabama defense as a unit but you can’t only count the guys in the NFL, in 2019, as all of the NFL players.

 

That is kind of Gunner’s point. This isn’t Syracuse, UB, or Boston College where the top guys make the NFL. The backups on Alabama were WAY more highly recruited than the top guys at a program like BC (or literally anywhere else). They are a roster of future NFL players. It’s just a matter of when their time to go to the league is. Over the most recent 5 year cycle (a full college career) they had 20 defensive players taken in rounds 1-4. That doesn’t count guys like Levi Wallace that didn’t get drafted or Shaun Dion Hamilton drafted after round 4. If anything, Gunner was very conservative when giving that list. There are plenty more guys that can be added to draw the line on “NFL player.”

 

Ok, so lets say I concede this point.  The reality is simple...they will NOT all be STARTERS in the NFL.  I will wager anything you want that not all 11 of THIS YEARS Bama squad will be long term starters in the NFL.  

 

And again...who cares about this point.  Not one Bama players is going to play anything close to what their true NFL ability is in a single game before ever stepping on an NFL field before.  So even if they magically become the first school in history to have all 11 players become good long term starters or better in the NFL, they WONT be playing at that level TODAY.  

 

We beat teams with future HOF players and Pro Bowlers on those defenses playing along side a FULL roster of starting NFL defenders.  And we beat them convincingly.  

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Still dont agree with how you are using the math.

 

But, Alabama is not a magical school where all drafted players become good.  Over 4 years, it produced 3 Pro Bowlers (according to you)...4 years.  And you said it took them 3 years to reach that level.  

 

So even if what you believe is to be true, that all 11 will be in the NFL and most won't bust, that doesn't mean they will all be good.  And given Bama produced 3 Pro Bowlers out of 20 players over 4 years, thats less than 1 per season.  Meaning, 1 Pro Bowler...but lets do even more favorable math...thats about one of out 7 players drafted which would still equate to less than 2 players out of the 11 on this team. 

 

So using your own Math....this Bama defense MAY produce 1 or 2 eventual NFL Pro Bowlers, a few solid starters, a few meh players, and 1 or 2 busts.

 

Guess what an NFL starting roster doesn't have...busts.  So thats already a 2 player advantage to the offense.  Then you look at the fact that not all 11 will even be starters...lets give you a super favorable ratio again and say 7 of the 11 become NFL starters.  That still is a defense with 5 players made up of backups or worse.

 

And what do NFL starting defenses have?  11 starters.  They also have REAL Pro Bowlers, not Maybe guys who won't reach that ability until they get a lot more NFL experience.  

 

So again, you are fixated on this idea of 11 of them will make the NFL yet completely ignore:

1. They will not be playing at peak NFL form.  Those guys who may become Pro Bowlers one day will not be playing at an NFL Pro Bowl caliber in one game with no NFL experience under their belt.  So this Pro Bowl argument is completely invalid in the first place.
2. Most will not even be playing at NFL starter level yet as many of the guys drafted do not just walk into starting jobs, it often takes time, even seasons to work their way up to that level.
3. At least a few will be guys who are career backups.
4. At least a couple statistically are going to be guys who dont last in the NFL.

So what are you left...a Bama defense that has a couple of guys who MIGHT work their way UP to a Pro Bowl level in the NFL but aren't there yet...a handful guys that MIGHT work their way UP over time to a starter in the NFL, but aren't there yet.  And 4 or 5 guys who will have meh or worse NFL careers.  

 

Conclusion:  That Bama defense is NOT even close to the level of the Vikings defense we played, the Jags defense we played, or even the Jets defense we played.  We win 100% and we cover easily.  

 

I said within their first 3 years. There are a couple more likely to be going to the pro-bowl this year too. 

 

There are almost no non NFL players playing on defense for Bama these days. The 2016 defense are all in the NFL. Most of them are good or better starters too. The 2017 defense will all be in the NFL by this time next year.

 

It is fine to say yea well despite that I think the Bills will cover. When you try and talk down their defensive talent you are headed for a rabbit hole. Because they are really, really good. 

2 minutes ago, mannc said:

So are you saying they wouldn’t be pancaked by Vlad Ducasse or terrorized by Chris Ivory?

 

There are inanimate objects that would win 1 v 1 against Vlad Ducasse. 

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

And again...who cares about this point.  Not one Bama players is going to play anything close to what their true NFL ability is in a single game before ever stepping on an NFL field before.  So even if they magically become the first school in history to have all 11 players become good long term starters or better in the NFL, they WONT be playing at that level TODAY.  

 

I think there is something to this point. The Alabama defense might be more talented but even a bottom feeder NFL offense will have some wiley vets. Teams rarely win with very young rosters because experience matters (though I don't think it completely dismissed the chances in a one off game). 

 

I think you should give up on the "they won't all be NFL starters" because at the moment your argument is already hanging on Dion Hamilton only. Other than he the 2016 defense are all already NFL starters. So one year's entire Alabama defense all starting in the NFL is absolutely possible. 

 

Maybe 2018 will buck the trend and many fewer of the defensive starters will go on to start in the NFL. But looking at them I doubt it. I think it more likely follows the 2016 and 2017 class. 

 

 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Anderson and Williams are both having very good seasons. It is fair to say that they are not among the best players on their defenses that is true... but Hands, Robinson and Reed are. Humphrey IS the best corner on the Ravens. He is a top 20 corner in the league already to my mind. And Clinton-Dix is good. He has been every year he has been in the league. Green Bay traded him because they are against the cap and didn't want to pay him. As someone who watched their safety play without him on SNF that might be a decision they regret. 

No man, no way. Packers were over Clinton-Dix. He had one outlier of a year and was average before and inconsistent/bad afterwards. Ask a GB fan. At this point he's just a name for me.

[Alphadawg7]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I said within their first 3 years. There are a couple more likely to be going to the pro-bowl this year too. 

 

There are almost no non NFL players playing on defense for Bama these days. The 2016 defense are all in the NFL. Most of them are good or better starters too. The 2017 defense will all be in the NFL by this time next year.

 

It is fine to say yea well despite that I think the Bills will cover. When you try and talk down their defensive talent you are headed for a rabbit hole. Because they are really, really good. 

 

There are inanimate objects that would win 1 v 1 against Vlad Ducasse. 

 

I didn't talk down their defense though, you are talking them up based on what you believe their peak NFL ability to be.  I didn't say the Bama defense is bad, I know how good they are.  But COLLEGE good vs NFL good are VERY different.  The college game isnt remotely the same speed or power as it is in the NFL.  

 

Not one Bama player is an NFL player, none have been drafted yet.  They are not NFL Pro Bowlers, they are nothing right now.  They are college players only.  They will eventually become NFL players, maybe even all 11 as you proclaim.  And some will probably excel as there are some guys on that D that look like they can be great at the next level.  But none are playing at that NFL Pro Bowl level in this make believe game vs the Bills as they have NO NFL experience.  

 

So what you have is a bunch of kids who are more raw at the NFL level than a rookie playing his first preseason game who at least had OTA's and Practices to kind of get used to the game.  

 

Meanwhile, Bills have easily handled some NFL defenses under Allen like the Vikes, Jets, and Jags who have Pro Bowlers, and some of the best defensive players in the entire NFL on those rosters and a couple future HOF candidates as well.  

 

So again, the Bama defense as it sits today is no match for an NFL team.  We win by 40+ as Bama would barely score, if at all, on our defense.  And we would easily put up 40+ on a college football team.   

Edited November 28, 2018 by Alphadawg7

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

No man, no way. Packers were over Clinton-Dix. He had one outlier of a year and was average before and inconsistent/bad afterwards. Ask a GB fan. At this point he's just a name for me.

 

I think you are 100% wrong. And if a Packers fan thinks that I think he is wrong too. 

 

EDIT: the Packers fans hate Clinton-Dix because he blew that play on the 2 point conversion against the Seahawks in the NFCCG. He has been a really good player for them overall.

 

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Bama would barely score, if at all, on our defense.   

 

I am off to bed but the above is at least a point we can agree on..

Edited November 28, 2018 by GunnerBill

[Alphadawg7]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think you are 100% wrong. And if a Packers fan thinks that I think he is wrong too. 

 

I am off to bed but the above is at least a point we can agree on..

 

Its all good brother, even though we dont agree, I thoroughly enjoy the discussion as usual with you.  

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Its all good brother, even though we dont agree, I thoroughly enjoy the discussion as usual with you.  

 

Likewise Alpha - and I never read your caps as shouting, don't worry. 

[Kirby Jackson]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Ok, so lets say I concede this point.  The reality is simple...they will NOT all be STARTERS in the NFL.  I will wager anything you want that not all 11 of THIS YEARS Bama squad will be long term starters in the NFL.  

 

And again...who cares about this point.  Not one Bama players is going to play anything close to what their true NFL ability is in a single game before ever stepping on an NFL field before.  So even if they magically become the first school in history to have all 11 players become good long term starters or better in the NFL, they WONT be playing at that level TODAY.  

 

We beat teams with future HOF players and Pro Bowlers on those defenses playing along side a FULL roster of starting NFL defenders.  And we beat them convincingly.  

I think that this is fair. I don’t think all 11 starters on the Bills offense will be long-term starters either. Many guys are there out of necessity not raw skill. They are starting a guy this year that couldn’t start at Alabama last year. There are multiple guys on Alabama’s offense that could start on ours tomorrow (Williams, Pierschbacher and Jeudy) without question. That doesn’t even get into their RBs or QB who are all considered ELITE prospects. I think that their offense could score once against us. 

 

The point about them not being near their ceiling is fair. As good as their defense is, I still have the Bills scoring 30 and winning by 20. I just don’t see the places where the Bills are dominating them. The most natural spot is between the tackles and Alabama is starting 2 1st rounders against Miller, Teller and Bodine. The interior of the Bills defense is the biggest mismatch but Tua sets up quicker than any QB I can remember. The Bills would give them a very hard time but they would still make some plays based on their elite talent. Harris, Jeudy, Tua, Ruggs and the other Harris is an incredible skill group. It is reminiscent of when the U had Andre Johnson, Portis, Gore, Winslow and Willis. 

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think you are 100% wrong. And if a Packers fan thinks that I think he is wrong too. 

He's not that good. He wouldn't even try to tackle Golladay last year and then jogged toward the end zone.

 

Wouldn't even try to tackle Elliott on the Cowboys first TD, then got absolutely torched by Cooper. Dunno what you see in him.

[GunnerBill]

And can I juat add.... I can't stand Alabama. They are dull to watch and Saban irritates the hell out of me.