(hypothetical) Alabama vs. Bills spread

[Thurman#1]

2 minutes ago, mannc said:

So are you saying Davis and Williams would not have been drafted in 2018 if they had been eligible?  Tua won’t be eligible this year either, but if he was, is there any doubt he’d be drafted?   

 

As to the idea that guys from a program like Alabama get significantly coached up when they get to the pros, well, we’ll just have to disagree about that.  

 

 

No, I'm not saying that. I'm saying you don't get to switch guys all into one year and then take that figure and pretend it's a per year figure. It's not.

 

Seriously? That second paragraph? That's a joke.

Edited November 27, 2018 by Thurman#1

[mannc]

2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

No, I'm not saying that. I'm saying you don't get to switch guys all into one year and then take that figure and pretend it's a per year figure. It's not.

 

Seriously? That second paragraph? That's a joke.

That’s not what I’m doing.  I’m saying, if every guy on Alabama’s current team was draft-eligible this coming April, then it would not be unreasonable to think that 18 of them would be drafted. 

 

What is your response to the current NFL guys who played for the Tide, and uniformly say that Alabama would beat plenty of NFL teams?  I know there is some bias because they are alums, but to me, they are uniquely qualified to answer the question.

[longtimebillsfan]

This is silly at this point.  The Bills have beaten three playoff teams from last year.

 

Most likely any NFL team could handle Alabama.  However, back I. The 60's and before, the NFL champions would play a game vs a team of college Allstars.   The college kids would win every once in a while. 

Edited November 27, 2018 by longtimebillsfan

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

11 S Minkah Fitzpatrick (528 snaps)

13 DT Daron Payne (484 snaps)

22 LB Rashaan Evans (298 snaps)

26 WR Calvin Ridley (396 snaps)

93 S Ronnie Harrison (186 snaps, 29.1%)

114 DE Da'Shawn Hand (381 snaps)

118 CB Anthony Averett (22 snaps)

172 P JK Scott (punter, 91 STs snaps)

197 LB Shaun Dion Hamilton (0 snaps)

215 C Bradley Bozeman (103 snaps)

236 RB Bo Scarbrough (0 snaps) on his second team's practice squad

246 DT Joshua Frazier (0 snaps) free agent

 

 

 

So from last year's Alabama starting defense....

 

DL - Payne (drafted 1st round in 2018 - starter playing at high level)

DL - Hand (drafted 4th round in 2018 - starter playing at high level)

DL - Raekwon Davis (likely 1st or 2nd round pick in 2019)

OLB - Anfernee Jennings (likely day 2 pick in 2019)

ILB - Raashan Evans (drafted 1st round in 2018 - starter playing at decent level)

ILB - Dion Hamilton (drafted 6th round in 2018 - only playing special teams at the moment)

OLB - Christian Miller (likely mid to round pick in 2019)

CB - Levi Wallace (UDFA in 2018 - now starting and playing a decent level)

S - Minkah Fitpatrick (drafted 1st round in 2018 - starter playing at a high level)

S - Ronnie Harrison (drafted 3rd round in 2018 - rotational player playing at a decent level - will be a future starter)

CB - Anthony Averett (drafted 4th round in 2018 - backup player playing at a decent level - will be a future starter)

 

That is not a "normal" college defense. That is a defense of supremely talented guys who are going to play and succeed in the National Football League and would compete with the bottom feeder offenses in my opinion.

[Kirby Jackson]

8 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

You never heard of stunts and switching sides to create favorable matchups? This is NFL caliber coaching not playing LSU or Old Miss coaching here 

...and the guy on the other side was a 5-star recruit that isn’t draft eligible this year. 2 years from now, he will be starting in the NFL. Again, I’m not saying that the Bills defense wouldn’t give Alabama a hard time. I just don’t see sack records being shattered against an OL and QB as TALENTED (not experienced) as some that we will play. 

 

Just for clarity sake, does everyone here understand that you need to be 3 years removed from high school to enter the NFL Draft? It feels like a lot of people get hung up on the number of people Alabama sends to the NFL every year. There are (conservatively) 30+ people on this roster that will be playing in the NFL. I’d venture to say 10+ (minimum) that are picked in round 1. That’s a ton of talent. 

 

Secondly, in terms of the whole size and strength thing there is virtually no difference in the ‘Bama guys and NFL guys. The Bills OL is actually smaller than Alabama’s. The ‘Bama strength coach makes about double what the Bills strength coach does. The biggest difference between the teams is knowledge and experience. The Bills will be able to identify things on both sides of the ball that will allow for plays to be made. Now, Alabama has Nick Saban to try to negate some of that but he can only do so much. The biggest mismatch is mental, not physical.

 

I have game at 30–10. 

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

 

It isn't like Alabama gets 12, or even 10 guys drafted every year. Here are the Saban years with the number of guys drafted. Obviously the first few classes were graduating guys not recruited by Saban. But what this shows is that 12 and 10 are outliers.

 

2018: 12

2017: 10

2016: 7

2015: 7

2014: 8

2013: 9

2012: 9

2011: 5

2010: 7

2009: 4

2008: 0

2007: 3

 

While certainly possible that they get 12 or so drafted the next couple of years, it's absolutely not conservative.

 

 

Looking at the 12 guys they had drafted this year. Here is each guy, with how many snaps he has played so far in his rookie year, with STs snaps not included.

 

11 S Minkah Fitzpatrick (528 snaps)

13 DT Daron Payne (484 snaps)

22 LB Rashaan Evans (298 snaps)

26 WR Calvin Ridley (396 snaps)

93 S Ronnie Harrison (186 snaps, 29.1%)

114 DE Da'Shawn Hand (381 snaps)

118 CB Anthony Averett (22 snaps)

172 P JK Scott (punter, 91 STs snaps)

197 LB Shaun Dion Hamilton (0 snaps)

215 C Bradley Bozeman (103 snaps)

236 RB Bo Scarbrough (0 snaps) on his second team's practice squad

246 DT Joshua Frazier (0 snaps) free agent

 

So, that's five guys with significant snaps, unless you want to count Harrison wtih 29.1% of his possible defensive snaps. I guess you could count the punter, too, if you wanted.

 

And each lower class that would also be playing against the Bills would be composed of younger guys with less experience.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You are kind of making my point here. If they have 12 this year as many project that’s 34 over a 3 year span. That doesn’t even account for current NFL starters in Foster and Wallace that we’re undrafted. It isn’t AT ALL unrealistic to say that there are 30+ NFL players on the best team that Alabama has had. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

47 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

...and the guy on the other side was a 5-star recruit that isn’t draft eligible this year. 2 years from now, he will be starting in the NFL. Again, I’m not saying that the Bills defense wouldn’t give Alabama a hard time. I just don’t see sack records being shattered against an OL and QB as TALENTED (not experienced) as some that we will play. 

 

Just for clarity sake, does everyone here understand that you need to be 3 years removed from high school to enter the NFL Draft? It feels like a lot of people get hung up on the number of people Alabama sends to the NFL every year. There are (conservatively) 30+ people on this roster that will be playing in the NFL. I’d venture to say 10+ (minimum) that are picked in round 1. That’s a ton of talent. 

 

Secondly, in terms of the whole size and strength thing there is virtually no difference in the ‘Bama guys and NFL guys. The Bills OL is actually smaller than Alabama’s. The ‘Bama strength coach makes about double what the Bills strength coach does. The biggest difference between the teams is knowledge and experience. The Bills will be able to identify things on both sides of the ball that will allow for plays to be made. Now, Alabama has Nick Saban to try to negate some of that but he can only do so much. The biggest mismatch is mental, not physical.

 

I have game at 30–10. 

You are kind of making my point here. If they have 12 this year as many project that’s 34 over a 3 year span. That doesn’t even account for current NFL starters in Foster and Wallace that we’re undrafted. It isn’t AT ALL unrealistic to say that there are 30+ NFL players on the best team that Alabama has had. 

 

I think the tricky part will be just generally the speed of the game.  It's going to be really hard for Bama to pass the ball, between playing a d-line that is probably better than anyone they'll play all year - a secondary with multiple NFL pro bowlers covering their receivers - and a ton of speed at linebacker.  Turnovers would spin the game to a blowout, so Bama would want to try and get grindy, and i think that honestly favors buffalo.  28.5 is quite the spread, but i don't think Bama is likely to win the game.

[Kirby Jackson]

6 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

I think the tricky part will be just generally the speed of the game.  It's going to be really hard for Bama to pass the ball, between playing a d-line that is probably better than anyone they'll play all year - a secondary with multiple NFL pro bowlers covering their receivers - and a ton of speed at linebacker.  Turnovers would spin the game to a blowout, so Bama would want to try and get grindy, and i think that honestly favors buffalo.  28.5 is quite the spread, but i don't think Bama is likely to win the game.

This is fair. The speed in a one game sample would be a huge adjustment. It’s smaller for them though than any other college team between practice, the SEC and Clemson every year. 

 

I don’t think ANY reasonable person thinks that they can win. I have a 20 point game mostly because I think that their defense would hold their own against the Bills. They have so much offensive talent that I have them scoring once. I have them kicking a FG as well off of a turnover. 

[row_33]

29 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

This is fair. The speed in a one game sample would be a huge adjustment. It’s smaller for them though than any other college team between practice, the SEC and Clemson every year. 

 

I don’t think ANY reasonable person thinks that they can win. I have a 20 point game mostly because I think that their defense would hold their own against the Bills. They have so much offensive talent that I have them scoring once. I have them kicking a FG as well off of a turnover. 

 

what's the motivation for the NFL team to continue caring if they come out and run right over them for 2 series?

 

 

 

[Chuck Wagon]

This should be locked.  Bills weren't the worst team in the league when this hypothetical came out and now clearly are not the worst team in the league.  We would house Alabama.

[row_33]

11 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

This should be locked.  Bills weren't the worst team in the league when this hypothetical came out and now clearly are not the worst team in the league.  We would house Alabama.

 

they would have at any stage of the season, even with..... he who cannot be named at QB...

 

 

[TheElectricCompany]

I don't think the gap is as big as people think. 

[row_33]

10 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

I don't think the gap is as big as people think. 

 

if the NFL team tried it's hardest the whole game?

 

 

[TheElectricCompany]

18 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

if the NFL team tried it's hardest the whole game?

 

I believe that against the right team, you could confidently take the under. 

2001 Hurricanes against the 2016 Browns and you're under 2 TDs. 

Edited November 27, 2018 by TheElectricCompany

[colin]

I'd so love to see this happen.  The bills would break every franchise record for passing, scoring, running, TOP, turnovers gained, sacks, and Yards for and against.  Part of it is because of the way the bills play.  We are still goofy on O, but on D the team plays with a ton of emotion, and has a great secondary.  Tom Brady didn't get a TD pass on us when the D was in top form, and that was with a disaster pretending to play QB, Tua may end up being an NFL great one day, but today ain't that day.  He'd be confused by the coverage, and would be shell shocked by getting smashed up on every drop back.

[row_33]

13 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

I believe that against the right team, you could confidently take the under. 

2001 Hurricanes against the 2016 Browns and you're under 2 TDs. 

 

agreed, played in front of a Cane crowd with college hashmarks

 

 

[Success]

14 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

I believe that against the right team, you could confidently take the under. 

2001 Hurricanes against the 2016 Browns and you're under 2 TDs. 

It’s too bad they couldn’t ever do a game like this.  It would be an eye opener for anyone who thinks it wouldn’t be one if the all time blowouts.

 

It doesn’t matter how dominant a team is in college, or how bad the pro team is.  A pro team would win by many, many touchdowns.

[TheElectricCompany]

10 minutes ago, Success said:

It’s too bad they couldn’t ever do a game like this.  It would be an eye opener for anyone who thinks it wouldn’t be one if the all time blowouts.

It doesn’t matter how dominant a team is in college, or how bad the pro team is.  A pro team would win by many, many touchdowns.

 

2001 Hurricanes had Andre Johnson, Willis McGahee, Frank Gore, Clinton Portis, Kellen Winslow and Roscoe Parrish. I think their offense would stand a chance. 

 

We're both guessing here. I think the right NCAA team against a historically bad (I think DL/OL play is the #1 factor) NFL team could keep it interesting. 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 27, 2018 by TheElectricCompany

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

This is fair. The speed in a one game sample would be a huge adjustment. It’s smaller for them though than any other college team between practice, the SEC and Clemson every year. 

 

I don’t think ANY reasonable person thinks that they can win. I have a 20 point game mostly because I think that their defense would hold their own against the Bills. They have so much offensive talent that I have them scoring once. I have them kicking a FG as well off of a turnover. 

 

Like it takes a QB time to adjust - time that is spent in practice/preseason/on the field.  Their QB is just thrown in there.  His body clock won't be fast enough, and the receivers are going to struggle to get open for him to find in that window.  NFL d-lines are used to having to adjust to hard counts, silent counts, and other ways to slow down a pass rush.  All its going to take are a few run stops to get them in 3rd and longs and those are dangerous for a rookie QB who has played preseason/regular NFL time - let alone a green rookie who's never faced an NFL defense.

 

As for buffalo's offense, they've had some stinkers - baltimore and GB come to mind.  But they've also scored points against some really tough defenses in minn/jax - both of whom have a better defense than bama.  

[mannc]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So from last year's Alabama starting defense....

 

DL - Payne (drafted 1st round in 2018 - starter playing at high level)

DL - Hand (drafted 4th round in 2018 - starter playing at high level)

DL - Raekwon Davis (likely 1st or 2nd round pick in 2019)

OLB - Anfernee Jennings (likely day 2 pick in 2019)

ILB - Raashan Evans (drafted 1st round in 2018 - starter playing at decent level)

ILB - Dion Hamilton (drafted 6th round in 2018 - only playing special teams at the moment)

OLB - Christian Miller (likely mid to round pick in 2019)

CB - Levi Wallace (UDFA in 2018 - now starting and playing a decent level)

S - Minkah Fitpatrick (drafted 1st round in 2018 - starter playing at a high level)

S - Ronnie Harrison (drafted 3rd round in 2018 - rotational player playing at a decent level - will be a future starter)

CB - Anthony Averett (drafted 4th round in 2018 - backup player playing at a decent level - will be a future starter)

 

That is not a "normal" college defense. That is a defense of supremely talented guys who are going to play and succeed in the National Football League and would compete with the bottom feeder offenses in my opinion.

And that doesn’t even account for Quinnen Williams, who could be picked as high as 2 overall this year, or a couple of other defenders who will go in round 1 in April.

Edited November 27, 2018 by mannc

[row_33]

That Lions team is the softy of all time, watched a few series that season, they had small fat guys on the O-line that would have been in over their heads in semi-pro ball