(hypothetical) Alabama vs. Bills spread

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, mannc said:

Wanna bet?

You giving me Georgia +13.5?

 

[mannc]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think you are disagreeing much because my main point of disagreement has been with the tired cliché that "NFL is the best of the best and college teams are full of guys who would never play in the pros as well as some stars that will." That argument simply doesn't wash when you talk about defenders from Nick Saban's University of Alabama teams. His whole 2016 starting defense is now playing in the NFL 10/11 of them drafted in the 4th round or earlier where the bust rate for 'Bama defenders is even being generous a maximum 15%. By this time next year the 2017 defense will all be in the NFL and at a best guess 9/11 will have been 4th round or earlier picks - again where the bust rate is extremely low. But I don't think you personally are arguing that Thurm - so we are probably in broad agreement there.

 

I think your main point is that while 'Bama defenders generally end up excellent NFL players they probably aren't there in their sophomore or junior year in college when sometimes they are playing significant snaps on the 'Bama defense and therefore the NFL players on whichever bottom feeder offense you put them against (and this is not a Bills question for me it is more a question about the principle of the thing) would take advantage. I do think there is something in that - maybe someone like a Charles Clay (just used for illustrative reasons) might not have a speed or talent advantage over the Alabama defense but he would have an experience advantage and an ability to outsmart them. I can see that argument and I think it is the strongest argument that has been put forward as to why bottom feeder NFL offenses would put big points up on Alabama's more talented defense - smarts and experience.

 

My only reservation is that some of these NFL bottom feeder offenses are ill prepared week to week, make mistakes that hurt themselves and are often starting people themselves who are early in their NFL careers and trying to find their way - whether that be say a Wyatt Teller or a Robert Foster type. I know that if you gave the Alabama squad the same ability to focus on their practice for a week and not have to go to classes Saban would produce a team that would be super prepared on defense. If a bottom feeder NFL offense was ill prepared and made mistakes to beat themselves then I do think it is possible that the talent on the Alabama defense - whether it was the 2016 D, the 2017 D or the 2018 D would be capable of keeping it closer than you and others who share your view believe.

 

PS. Marlon Humphrey is good. He is playing really well this year on a good defense - that 2017 corner class is going to go down as historically good. Ryan Anderson isn't a starter in Washington - that is true - he has two outstanding edge rushers ahead of him but he has become more and more of a fixture in the rotation as this season has gone on and has beaten out Pernell McPhee who is not that many years removed from signing a big FA contract with the Bears to be the primary rotation and backup to Smith and Kerrigan.

 

 

The idea that the Bills’ offensive line would punish this Alabama defense, with 3 or 4 front seven guys who will be first-round picks in April, is just laughable.  The Bills’ starting offensive line consists of three journeymen, a guy who was starting for Temple two years ago, and a fifth round rookie.  The point is that NFL rosters are not necessarily stocked with superstar studs.

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

You giving me Georgia +13.5?

 

That wasn’t the poster’s premise.  But yes, I think Bama will cover.  Think about that:  on a neutral field, Alabama is a 13.5 point favorite vs the number 4 team in the country.  How many NFL games this year has there been a 13.5 point spread?  Four or five?

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, mannc said:

That wasn’t the poster’s premise.  But yes, I think Bama will cover.  Think about that:  on a neutral field, Alabama is a 13.5 point favorite vs the number 4 team in the country.  How many NFL games this year has there been a 13.5 point spread?  Four or five?

Not many. It speaks to the discrepancy in quality across the NCAA as opposed to the pros...you don't get to play Mercer and Citadel in the NFL. I'll take Georgia. 

[row_33]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

It’s certainly an interesting conversation. There is a ton of evidence on all sides of the conversation. It’s infinitely more interesting than “Peterman sucks” and “Tre White is great.” 

 

I’m grateful when I have time and energy to read them, good history here

 

 

[GoBills808]

22 minutes ago, mannc said:

The idea that the Bills’ offensive line would punish this Alabama defense, with 3 or 4 front seven guys who will be first-round picks in April, is just laughable.  The Bills’ starting offensive line consists of three journeymen, a guy who was starting for Temple two years ago, and a fifth round rookie.  The point is that NFL rosters are not necessarily stocked with superstar studs.

The Bills just rushed for over 150 against Malik Jackson, Calais Campbell, and Ngakoue last week. Went for 130 against Danielle Hunter, Lindval Joseph, and Sheldon Richardson. They would absolutely punish Alabama. 

[Kirby Jackson]

7 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

I’m grateful when I have time and energy to read them, good history here

 

 

Yeah, a lot of the best threads end up when the opinions are so vastly different. That holds especially true when there are valid arguments on both sides. As much as we are all over Tyrod discussions that’s part of the reason that there were so many. You could easily make a case that he was really good or really bad. There is evidence to support both sides. It depends on perspective. 

[mannc]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

The Bills just rushed for over 150 against Malik Jackson, Calais Campbell, and Ngakoue last week. 

Please...100 of those yards were on QB scrambles.  They couldn’t run for sh1t on the Jags.

[GoBills808]

Just now, mannc said:

Please...100 of those yards were on QB scrambles.  They couldn’t run for sh1t on the Jags.

Are the Bills playing this hypothetical game without a QB? Because then that spread might make sense.

[mannc]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

Are the Bills playing this hypothetical game without a QB? Because then that spread might make sense.

I’m a big Josh Allen fan, but I don’t think the Bills would have much of an edge at QB.

[row_33]

27 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Yeah, a lot of the best threads end up when the opinions are so vastly different. That holds especially true when there are valid arguments on both sides. As much as we are all over Tyrod discussions that’s part of the reason that there were so many. You could easily make a case that he was really good or really bad. There is evidence to support both sides. It depends on perspective. 

 

The views and knowledge of driven fans is often more valuable than that of experts, the board often gives us examples.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

48 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Not many. It speaks to the discrepancy in quality across the NCAA as opposed to the pros...you don't get to play Mercer and Citadel in the NFL. I'll take Georgia. 

 

You think Georgia will cover in the conference championship game? 

 

I severely doubt it. 

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You think Georgia will cover in the conference championship game? 

 

I severely doubt it. 

Sounds like a wager is in order then!

[78thealltimegreat]

5 hours ago, mannc said:

Wanna bet?

I doubt a 15 year old kid has anything that interests me..but I sure as heck know the Bills would cover 28.5 they are a little tougher to beat then the Citadel 

[Thurman#1]

18 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think you are disagreeing much because my main point of disagreement has been with the tired cliché that "NFL is the best of the best and college teams are full of guys who would never play in the pros as well as some stars that will." That argument simply doesn't wash when you talk about defenders from Nick Saban's University of Alabama teams. His whole 2016 starting defense is now playing in the NFL 10/11 of them drafted in the 4th round or earlier where the bust rate for 'Bama defenders is even being generous a maximum 15%. By this time next year the 2017 defense will all be in the NFL and at a best guess 9/11 will have been 4th round or earlier picks - again where the bust rate is extremely low. But I don't think you personally are arguing that Thurm - so we are probably in broad agreement there.

 

I think your main point is that while 'Bama defenders generally end up excellent NFL players they probably aren't there in their sophomore or junior year in college when sometimes they are playing significant snaps on the 'Bama defense and therefore the NFL players on whichever bottom feeder offense you put them against (and this is not a Bills question for me it is more a question about the principle of the thing) would take advantage. I do think there is something in that - maybe someone like a Charles Clay (just used for illustrative reasons) might not have a speed or talent advantage over the Alabama defense but he would have an experience advantage and an ability to outsmart them. I can see that argument and I think it is the strongest argument that has been put forward as to why bottom feeder NFL offenses would put big points up on Alabama's more talented defense - smarts and experience.

 

My only reservation is that some of these NFL bottom feeder offenses are ill prepared week to week, make mistakes that hurt themselves and are often starting people themselves who are early in their NFL careers and trying to find their way - whether that be say a Wyatt Teller or a Robert Foster type. I know that if you gave the Alabama squad the same ability to focus on their practice for a week and not have to go to classes Saban would produce a team that would be super prepared on defense. If a bottom feeder NFL offense was ill prepared and made mistakes to beat themselves then I do think it is possible that the talent on the Alabama defense - whether it was the 2016 D, the 2017 D or the 2018 D would be capable of keeping it closer than you and others who share your view believe.

 

PS. Marlon Humphrey is good. He is playing really well this year on a good defense - that 2017 corner class is going to go down as historically good. Ryan Anderson isn't a starter in Washington - that is true - he has two outstanding edge rushers ahead of him but he has become more and more of a fixture in the rotation as this season has gone on and has beaten out Pernell McPhee who is not that many years removed from signing a big FA contract with the Bears to be the primary rotation and backup to Smith and Kerrigan.

 

 

 

 

You're right, Gunner, I'm not making the argument you refer to in your first paragraph.

 

But what I am arguing goes beyond your summation. Yeah, smarts and experience are a huge advantage. But so is the simple maturation of human bodies, not to mention pure strength being a result of consistent effort over time ... and time is something these college guys have had an absolute ton less of than NFL guys. More, the NFL is able to put far more complex systems into use, particularly on offense, but on defense too.

 

What's the average age of NFL players? I'm sure I could find different numbers, because it doubtless goes up and down a fraction each year, but in this story it's reported as 26.6 and that's probably pretty close to what you'd find in nearly any year.

 

http://www.espn.com/esports/story/_/id/20733853/the-average-age-esports-versus-nfl-nba-mlb-nhl

 

Now look at the average year of a college roster and don't count the guys who never play. Obviously I can't come up with an exact number on this but it's probably somewhere around 19, maybe a lowish 20. Take the starters and that would probably trend a bit higher. There are a few guys who take a red-shirt year and stay on a team for five years but that's just not a common enough move to sway the average much, I think.

 

So, an average college team's starters would average 20, maybe? Am I wrong? Now put 26.6 year olds against 20 year olds, both on a consist weight program. Who's going to be stronger? And will it be a little bit stronger or very significantly stronger?

 

Look at the ages of Olympic champions. It differs from sport to sport and between genders as well, but there are very few champions who are college age. That relates to strength, though it also relates to time under coaching and many factors, but the point stands.

 

One of many studies here:  https://rua.ua.es/dspace/bitstream/10045/61889/1/jhse_Vol_11_N_1_31-41.pdf

 

Throw in the fact that as you say the pros'll have a ton more experience and will be operating in much more complex systems due to the inexperience of college guys and the much more limited amount of time available for coaching and learning and NFL coaches simply have an awful lot more they can put into their playbooks and systems in terms of complexity and detail.

 

Fair enough that this doesn't have to be Buffalo. A game between Alabama and any bottom-level pro team would not be even slightly close.

 

[Thurman#1]

17 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

You are making my point. They’ve had 34 drafted over the last 3 years and this is the most talented team yet. Again, there are nfl starters now that weren’t drafted (and didn’t start at Alabama).

 

If you think that ‘Bama guys are on meal programs like college kids you really don’t know big time college football. Here’s a look at their $14M nutrition facility: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sportingnews.com/us/amp/ncaa-football/news/alabama-football-crimson-tide-video-photos-twitter-nutrition-facility-college-football-ncaa/1smhonxn9x1cf1mxh1so8mc0b0. They employe 5 performance chefs and 4 dietitians. 

 

With all due respect, at Alabama and some other major programs football is their life. It is the minor leagues. That is their responsibility. Lifting programs start younger and younger. The high school football programs around here employe full time strength coaches just for the football teams. If you were to look at the strength numbers of the Alabama players and stack it next to the Bills it would be virtually identical. 

 

Again, the entire conversation is about THIS Alabama team. I’d bet any amount of money that you wanted that 30+ guys on this roster go to the NFL. They are not similar to “insert solid program here.” This is an evolving machine. It is the top recruits with the top coach. It is at an all-time high. They’ve won every game by over 20 points. This is the outlier. I still say 30-10.

 

 

I'm really NOT making your point, dude. You're picking the best possible example, the last three years. It's just as legit to pick, say the 2012 championship team that had 25 Alabama guys drafted the next three years. You just don't know this. You don't, and you're kidding yourself if you think you do. Picking the highest of all possible past outcomes, and then saying the future will be higher ... simply isn't a conservative way to make a prediction. You said you made a conservative prediction. You didn't. 30+ is certainly possible but if you'd bet your house on that ("any amount of money") you're very clearly not being conservative.

 

And to repeat for like the third time ... the most mature of the group will be pros ... a year from now and after six to seven months of training and learning virtually full time in the pro system. The next oldest group will be pros two years from now and the rest will be three or more years from now. They're not pros now. As of now they've been identified - many or most of them - as having future pro potential. Many of them will be busts or guys that don't make a team in the long term, history shows.

 

You make a good point about the nutrition, that's interesting, but it's a small factor in all of the mass of advantages that NFL players have.

 

And no, football isn't their life, these college players. They still have to take and pass classes. Yeah, football's the most important part of their life, for many or most of them anyway, but they still have to do far more off-point stuff than pros do and have far more limitations on what football activities they can do.

 

NCAA rules allow athletes to spend no more than 20 hours a week on required athletic activities, "Countable Athletically Related Activity". Yes, some activities are not counted, so that's not a strict cap on all football activities, of course. But NFL limitations are not nearly as restrictive.

 

Here's the offense and ages/years:

 

Jerry Jeudy 19 true soph

Henry Ruggs true soph

Devonta Smith 165 pounds , 20 true soph

Jonah Williams Jr. 21 this week true junior

Deonte Brown red-shirt soph

Ross Pierschbacher red-shirt senior

Alex Leatherwood true sophomore

Jedrick Wills true soph

(TE  - Hback) Irvin Smith Jr true junior

(TE)  Hale Hentges true senior

Tua Tagovailoa 20, true soph

Damien Harris 21 true senior

 

That's the offense. It was interesting to me to find that it's not easy to find ages for some of these guys. But you can still get a sense by their year where they are. Plenty of these guys aren't even eligible by age and college experience for the NFL. They're young.

 

EDIT: found a much quicker way to find this, so I thought I'd do the defense too.

Buggs soph transfer

Williams red-shirt soph

Davis true junior

Jennings red-shirt junior

Miller red-shirt senior

Wilson true junior

Moses true soph

Smith junior transfer

Thompson red-shirt junior

McKinney true sophomore

Surtain true freshman

Carter true junior

 

Again, young.

 

 

Their QB is very young and an NFL team would doubtless throw extremely complex defenses at him and pressure him with a ton of stunts blitzes and complex and shifting coverages. When he's been in the NFL a couple of years he may well begin to be able to handle that. Not now, though.

 

 

I'd say 50 - 6.

 

 

Edited November 30, 2018 by Thurman#1

[#34fan]

Bills By 28.... Coaching would be a huge factor in this contest, and sorry, but Bama would have an advantage there... I'd expect Bama's defense to shock the skeptics with their ability to disrupt Allen's process, and keep him off-base... -Bama loses, but covers by half a point.

[Kirby Jackson]

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I'm really NOT making your point, dude. You're picking the best possible example, the last three years. It's just as legit to pick, say the 2012 championship team that had 25 Alabama guys drafted the next three years. You just don't know this. You don't, and you're kidding yourself if you think you do. Picking the highest of all possible past outcomes, and then saying the future will be higher ... simply isn't a conservative way to make a prediction. You said you made a conservative prediction. You didn't. 30+ is certainly possible but if you'd bet your house on that ("any amount of money") you're very clearly not being conservative.

 

And to repeat for like the third time ... the most mature of the group will be pros ... a year from now and after six to seven months of training and learning virtually full time in the pro system. The next oldest group will be pros two years from now and the rest will be three or more years from now. They're not pros now. As of now they've been identified - many or most of them - as having future pro potential. Many of them will be busts or guys that don't make a team in the long term, history shows.

 

You make a good point about the nutrition, that's interesting, but it's a small factor in all of the mass of advantages that NFL players have.

 

And no, football isn't their life, these college players. They still have to take and pass classes. Yeah, football's the most important part of their life, for many or most of them anyway, but they still have to do far more off-point stuff than pros do and have far more limitations on what football activities they can do.

 

NCAA rules allow athletes to spend no more than 20 hours a week on required athletic activities, "Countable Athletically Related Activity". Yes, some activities are not counted, so that's not a strict cap on all football activities, of course. But NFL limitations are not nearly as restrictive.

 

Here's the offense and ages/years:

 

Jerry Jeudy 19 true soph

Henry Ruggs true soph

Devonta Smith 165 pounds , 20 true soph

Jonah Williams Jr. 21 this week true junior

Deonte Brown red-shirt soph

Ross Pierschbacher red-shirt senior

Alex Leatherwood true sophomore

Jedrick Wills true soph

(TE  - Hback) Irvin Smith Jr true junior

(TE)  Hale Hentges true senior

Tua Tagovailoa 20, true soph

Damien Harris 21 true senior

 

That's the offense. It was interesting to me to find that it's not easy to find ages for some of these guys. But you can still get a sense by their year where they are. Plenty of these guys aren't even eligible by age and college experience for the NFL. They're young.

 

EDIT: found a much quicker way to find this, so I thought I'd do the defense too.

Buggs soph transfer

Williams red-shirt soph

Davis true junior

Jennings red-shirt junior

Miller red-shirt senior

Wilson true junior

Moses true soph

Smith junior transfer

Thompson red-shirt junior

McKinney true sophomore

Surtain true freshman

Carter true junior

 

Again, young.

 

 

Their QB is very young and an NFL team would doubtless throw extremely complex defenses at him and pressure him with a ton of stunts blitzes and complex and shifting coverages. When he's been in the NFL a couple of years he may well begin to be able to handle that. Not now, though.

 

 

I'd say 50 - 6.

 

 

The 2012 team has nothing to do with this group. The conversation and spread from Vegas was about THIS Alabama team. I’m not sure why anyone inserts any other program into the conversation? We are all aware that this Alabama team is an outlier. This is a culmination of a lot of hits AND an elite QB. They are different from their predecessors. 

 

It’s also a conservative estimate based on the most recent recruiting cycles. You are looking at ages and not pedigree. Jerry Jeudy is a true sophomore and arguably the best receiver in the country. 

 

I was just responding to your point on nutrition, “Bama guys are mostly on meal plans and studying while NFL players are eating at the facility Andy focusing on nothing but football.” I guess the point here is if you think an Alabama Football player has ANYTHING to worry about but Alabama Football, we disagree. It is certainly different at other programs. Yes, Alabama has a respectable graduation rate but 100% of their football needs come before anything else. If there were ever an academic issue that jeopardized the football program, someone would step in and make it go away. When you couple that with the lack of family, media and marketing commitments that pros have the “free time” isn’t that different.

 

Football is all that matters in that state AND to the donors. That’s an underrated part of this. The donors hold the school hostage if they don’t like the direction of the football team. As a quick anecdotal side story I have a good friend that works in the athletic department at Auburn. The largest donor at Auburn has a $172M (think is the number) gift to Auburn. It is contingent on $38M of it being used to buy out Gus Malzahn. If Malzahn isn’t bought out this year, Auburn won’t get any of it.

 

We are certainly in agreement about the age. It sounds like we are also reaching an agreement that the biggest challenge for Alabama will be the complexities. The mental side is the largest gap between pros and even Alabama. We just differ on how much the physical skills would offset it. It’s no problem though. This conversation has been interesting because 2 people can see the same things differently. It’s been an interesting conversation.

 

Edited November 30, 2018 by Kirby Jackson

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

 

We are certainly in agreement about the age. It sounds like we are also reaching an agreement that the ingest challenge for Alabama will be the complexities. The mental side is the largest gap between pros and even Alabama. We just differ on how much the physical skills would offset it. It’s no problem though. This conversation has been interesting because 2 people can see the same things differently. It’s been an interesting conversation.

 

 

Agree - and I agree on the conversation too. I think Thurm has been much more coherent on the "Alabama would get crushed" side of the argument than most of the other views from that angle which largely fail to understand how different this Alabama team (and Alabama teams of certainly the last couple of years too) are. They are producing good to very good NFL starters at an almost unheralded rate.

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree - and I agree on the conversation too. I think Thurm has been much more coherent on the "Alabama would get crushed" side of the argument than most of the other views from that angle which largely fail to understand how different this Alabama team (and Alabama teams of certainly the last couple of years too) are. They are producing good to very good NFL starters at an almost unheralded rate.

Agree on Thurm, he’s brought WAY more substance than most others. 

Edited November 30, 2018 by Kirby Jackson

[row_33]

how is this Bama team any different in this era?

 

they didn't play a decent OOC opponent the entire season?

 

that helps the stats

 

just another year of football