(hypothetical) Alabama vs. Bills spread

[Alphadawg7]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I think that this is fair. I don’t think all 11 starters on the Bills offense will be long-term starters either. Many guys are there out of necessity not raw skill. They are starting a guy this year that couldn’t start at Alabama last year. There are multiple guys on Alabama’s offense that could start on ours tomorrow (Williams, Pierschbacher and Jeudy) without question. That doesn’t even get into their RBs or QB who are all considered ELITE prospects. I think that their offense could score once against us. 

 

The point about them not being near their ceiling is fair. As good as their defense is, I still have the Bills scoring 30 and winning by 20. I just don’t see the places where the Bills are dominating them. The most natural spot is between the tackles and Alabama is starting 2 1st rounders against Miller, Teller and Bodine. The interior of the Bills defense is the biggest mismatch but Tua sets up quicker than any QB I can remember. The Bills would give them a very hard time but they would still make some plays based on their elite talent. Harris, Jeudy, Tua, Ruggs and the other Harris is an incredible skill group. It is reminiscent of when the U had Andre Johnson, Portis, Gore, Winslow and Willis. 

 

All good...And you're not wrong about Bama, I agree with the amount of talent they have that look to have bright NFL futures.  I just dont see them coming into a NFL game right now and beating an NFL team.  

 

And while I also agree about the fact that not all Bills guys are "starters", the reality of it though is that they are.  They were still good enough to make an NFL roster as a starter.  Are they good starters, certainly not all of them as we know, especially on our offense.  But they are still doing better than most guys who find a way to enter the NFL each year.

 

And per your Foster example, look at how bad Foster was in preseason and regular season.  Gunner even proclaimed he won't even make the roster because he was so bad, yet he did.  He then got cut and went to PS, but worked his tail off to get back up and now is contributing.  So this is a prime example of how it takes time for players to grow, mature, and start catching up with the NFL game.  

 

I know some guys can just walk onto an NFL field and contribute, but those are rare and there are not 11 of them on Bamas defense that can start this Sunday and play well for an NFL defense with no OTA's, No camp, No Preseason, No NFL practices, and no NFL game experience.  

 

If I had to predict a score, I think Bama scores less than 10, and maybe not even at all, and that the Bills would score 42 or more.  I mean we are one of the top ranked defenses in the NFL this year.  Tua may have an NFL future as a starter, but odds are his first appearance against a top ranked NFL defense will not be a good one as it rarely is for even a rookie who went though a whole NFL offseason.

[Kirby Jackson]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

And can I juat add.... I can't stand Alabama. They are dull to watch and Saban irritates the hell out of me. 

I too hate Alabama but respect the hell out of them.  What Saban has been able to do, with such a small margin of error, is absolutely incredible. I’m hoping that they get knocked off again this year but I just don’t see it.

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

He's not that good. He wouldn't even try to tackle Golladay last year and then jogged toward the end zone.

 

Wouldn't even try to tackle Elliott on the Cowboys first TD, then got absolutely torched by Cooper. Dunno what you see in him.

 

He is a modern NFL safety. He is versatile and can come up and play close to the line but he equally has the range to play centre field. He can also cover in man and that is critical in the modern NFL - it is why the Bills signed two safeties (another of those Green Bay made a bad decision to let go) who have experience of playing corner. His numbers for INTs and pass break ups are consistently pretty good and he was actually having one of his best years in Green Bay before they made the trade. 

 

He is not an all pro or an elite player but he is a good starter. A guy you plug in and are pretty happy with for a number of years. 

 

It isn't just me who sees it either. His fellow pros have had him in their top 100 two years in a row. 

[GoBills808]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He is a modern NFL safety. He is versatile and can come up and play close to the line but he equally has the range to play centre field. He can also cover in man and that is critical in the modern NFL - it is why the Bills signed two safeties (another of those Green Bay made a bad decision to let go) who have experience of playing corner. His numbers for INTs and pass break ups are consistently pretty good and he was actually having one of his best years in Green Bay before they made the trade. 

 

He is not an all pro or an elite player but he is a good starter. A guy you plug in and are pretty happy with for a number of years. 

 

It isn't just me who sees it either. His fellow pros have had him in their top 100 two years in a row. 

Fair. I have him a lot lower and I admit to not watching a lot (read: just games) of film of his play. He just always struck me as a guy people said was good without ever really playing at a high level. 

[GunnerBill]

17 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Fair. I have him a lot lower and I admit to not watching a lot (read: just games) of film of his play. He just always struck me as a guy people said was good without ever really playing at a high level. 

 

Also in fairness, because I did talk about guys who are among the top 2 or 3 players on their defences - I don't think he is in Washington where he has joined a pretty talented defensive group - their defensive front is excellent (the two 'Bama boys) they have three excellent edge rushers they rotate well (including another 'Bama boy) and Zach Brown is having a hell of a year at linebacker.

 

I think he was one of the top 3 or 4 players on the Green Bay defense this year though. He, Jaire Alexander and Kenny Clark are the three that immediately spring to mind.

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Also in fairness, because I did talk about guys who are among the top 2 or 3 players on their defences - I don't think he is in Washington where he has joined a pretty talented defensive group - their defensive front is excellent (the two 'Bama boys) they have three excellent edge rushers they rotate well (including another 'Bama boy) and Zach Brown is having a hell of a year at linebacker.

 

I think he was one of the top 3 or 4 players on the Green Bay defense this year though. He, Jaire Alexander and Kenny Clark are the three that immediately spring to mind.

Don't forget Mike Daniels, and Wilkerson before he got hurt. Their d line is pretty underrated imo.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Don't forget Mike Daniels, and Wilkerson before he got hurt. Their d line is pretty underrated imo.

 

I don't think Daniels has been quite his usual dominant self this year. He is still playing okay in disrupting the pocket in the pass game but is having some real struggles in the run game. I'm not sure the Pettine scheme is a great fit for him, but people are having much more joy running at him than in previous years. Very different positions, obviously, but I'd say Clinton Dix pre-trade was definitely out performing him. 

[Thurman#1]

On ‎11‎/‎27‎/‎2018 at 9:27 PM, Kirby Jackson said:

...and the guy on the other side was a 5-star recruit that isn’t draft eligible this year. 2 years from now, he will be starting in the NFL. Again, I’m not saying that the Bills defense wouldn’t give Alabama a hard time. I just don’t see sack records being shattered against an OL and QB as TALENTED (not experienced) as some that we will play. 

 

Just for clarity sake, does everyone here understand that you need to be 3 years removed from high school to enter the NFL Draft? It feels like a lot of people get hung up on the number of people Alabama sends to the NFL every year. There are (conservatively) 30+ people on this roster that will be playing in the NFL. I’d venture to say 10+ (minimum) that are picked in round 1. That’s a ton of talent. 

 

Secondly, in terms of the whole size and strength thing there is virtually no difference in the ‘Bama guys and NFL guys. The Bills OL is actually smaller than Alabama’s. The ‘Bama strength coach makes about double what the Bills strength coach does. The biggest difference between the teams is knowledge and experience. The Bills will be able to identify things on both sides of the ball that will allow for plays to be made. Now, Alabama has Nick Saban to try to negate some of that but he can only do so much. The biggest mismatch is mental, not physical.

 

I have game at 30–10. 

You are kind of making my point here. If they have 12 this year as many project that’s 34 over a 3 year span. That doesn’t even account for current NFL starters in Foster and Wallace that we’re undrafted. It isn’t AT ALL unrealistic to say that there are 30+ NFL players on the best team that Alabama has had. 

 

 

No, I'm very much NOT making your point. 

 

They have 12 there, an all-time high and very possibly an outlier. And of those 12 more than half have not been able to get regular NFL snaps yet. And while more may become that good next year and more yet the year after ... very few guys who are younger than the guys coming out would be ready to play against NFL players right now. Those guys right now are 19 and 20 years old. They're not ready.

 

Size? Yeah, Bama guys are NFL-standard mostly. Strength? Nah. The NFL guys have nutrition coaching and a year in an NFL strength coaching program and they're not 19 and 20 years old. Expensive strength coaches are nice, but Bama guys are mostly on meal programs and studying for classes while Bills guys eat at the facility and don't worry about anything but football, and that's all beyond the college guys simply having had years less of a lifting history.  They don't have to spend time taking classes and preparing for tests. NFL guys have several major advantages over college guys in terms of strength even if the college guys have the genetics to catch up when given the same time and advantages given the NFL guys.

 

Your number (30+) isn't conservative. But let's say it's right on. Being on an NFL roster doesn't mean you're good enough to start or even be any good. Take the 2014 draft. Eight Bama guys drafted. CJ Mosley and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix are fine players. Do you want the other six to be your starters? Cyrus Kouandjio, WR Kevin Norwood, DE Ed Stinson, QB AJ McCarron, S Vinnie Sunseri and JE Jeoffrey Pagan?

 

Or 2013: Dee Milliner, Chance Warmack, DJ Fluker and Eddie Lacy are all solid guys, though not outstanding by any means, though there were three guys there in the top eleven picks. Do you want the other five guys starting? LB Nico Johnson, G Barrett Jones, DT Jesse Williams, DE Quinton Dial and TE Michael Williams?

 

Or 2012: Trent Richardson, Mark Barron, Dre Kirkpatrick and certainly Dont'a Hightower are solid players. LB Courtney Upshaw? DT Josh Chapman? CB Dequan Menzie? TE Brad Smelley?

 

Now if that 2014 team is playing an NFL team, you have Mosley and Clinton-Dix as seniors .... Milliner, Warmack, Fluker and Eddie Lacey a year early and Richardson, Barron, Kirkpatrick and Hightower two years early.

 

And the others. I may have missed a player or two there but most of them didn't pan out and certainly wouldn't have even done that well a year or two early.

 

Sorry, man, but it's not even close. They would be lucky to score a single TD or force more than maybe a single punt.

Edited November 29, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

On ‎11‎/‎28‎/‎2018 at 7:44 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

You were the one trying to quote Peterman at me! I agree he is no qualifier for anyone but then don't hold him up as some evidence of anything. He is literally the worst Quarterback to start multiple NFL games in a quarter of a decade if not more. 

 

As for the Alabama defense.... that 2017 starting defense has 5 guys already playing at a good level in the NFL. This is the point. The odds are not the same when you are talking about defensive players who have come out of the University of Alabama over the last 4 or 5 years. It isn't 2/3 that fail. 

 

By the time the 2019 draft is done I think it is safe to assume that of those 11 2017 starters 8 will have been drafted in the first 4 rounds. Possibly 9 Miller I am not sure quite where he ends up going late day 2 is probably the ceiling day 3 more likely. 

 

Let's assume it is 8. Over the last FIVE drafts 20 Alabama defenders have been drafted in the first 4 rounds of the draft. Here they are:

 

CJ Mosely

Ha-Ha Clinton Dix

Landon Collins

Reggie Ragland

A'Shawn Robinson

Jarran Reed

Cyrus Jones

Marlon Humphrey

Jonathan Allen

Reuben Foster

Ryan Anderson

Dalvin Tomlinson

Tim Williams

Eddie Jackson

Minkah Fitzpatrick

Da'ron Payne

Rashaard Evans

Ronnie Harrison

Da'Shawn Hand

Anthony Averett

 

That is a mighty impressive list. The first 3 on it were all pro-bowlers within 3 years and when you read down after that these are not just guys, they are not just starters, they are in the vast majority of cases among the best 2 or 3 players on their defenses. These are high, high calibre guys. 

 

Try finding a bust on there. I can find one - Cyrus Jones who the Patriots drafted in the 2nd round in 2016 and released after 2 seasons with the team. He is now playing a special teamer in Baltimore. The second closest is Reggie Ragland where we all know the story pretty well but he is now a week in week out starter for the Chiefs (though a very average one). The third you might claim is Reuben Foster who has been a darn good footballer when he has been on the field but has had problems off it. Washington have just signed him but he is living in the last chance saloon we all agree. 

 

So say I give you 3. That is 3/20. That isn't close to two thirds, it isn't close to 50% it isn't even a 25% bust rate. This is the point. 

 

Even if people still think the Bills or the Cardinals or the 49ers... whoever.... cover their spread against Alabama - they have to stop parroting out this "College teams have great players and players who will never play in the pros." Picking a defensive starter from Nick Saban's Alabama Crimson Tide is just about the safest pick in the NFL draft. Overwhelmingly they are high level NFL contributors. 

 

This is not like any other college team. These guys are churning out pro-ready, high level NFL defenders year after year. 

 

 

They are certainly the best program in college for producing NFL guys. No question. And more so on defense.

 

But we're talking offense also, not just defense. But just looking at your list and how those guys were earlier in college:

 

Mosley was terrific in 2013 and 2012. 2011 ... really not so much.

 

Clinton-Dix had 5 INTs in his last year, and 0 in his other college year of play.

 

Landon Collins had 99 tackles in his final year, and 3 INTs, 68 tackles and 2 INTs in his 2nd last year nad 17 tackles and 0 INTs in his first

 

Ragland had 102 tackles and 2.5 sacks as a senior, 93 tackles and 1.5 sacks as a junior and 17 tackles and 0 sacks as a soph.

 

A'Shawn Robinson seems to have been almost as good a player as a soph as he was later.

 

Jarran Reed started for two years and was very good in both.

 

Cyrus Jones didn't play defense in 2012, had a limited impact in 2013 and played quite well in 2014.

 

Allen played all four years at Alabama and was an awful lot better the last two.

 

 

 

 

 

"The first 3 on it [Mosley, Clinton-Dix and Collins] were all pro-bowlers within 3 years," you say. Yeah, within three years, but that's within four years of their last year in college. Only Mosley was a first year Pro Bowl guy. Clinton-Dix played in all 16 games but started 10, picking up a bunch of tackles but few impact plays as a rookie, 1 INT, 0 forced fumbles, 1 sack, 1 tackle for loss and 2 QB hits. 6 passes defensed. And the Clinton-Dix in this theoretical Bills game was a year younger and less prepared than the rookie Clinton-Dix. Same with SS Landon Collins as a rook. A bunch of tackles but few impact plays. How would he have performed in this theoretical game as a college soph or junior?

 

A'Shawn Robinson started five games as an NFL rookie. Jarran Reed looks very good this year in Seattle but as a rookie he was mostly promising.

 

Is Marlon Humphrey any good? He's started 11 games in his two NFL years. I honestly don't know. You folks tell me. Jonathan Allen had the Lisfranc injury in Week 6 of his rookie year so it's hard to say what he could have done. Decent this year, but also seems a bunch improved over last year.

 

Reuben Foster? Ryan Anderson hasn't started one game in his two years. 

 

That's the first half of your list, in order. How do they do as rookies? Now how would they have done a year before that? Or two or three years before that?

 

 

So you wouldn't argue that Alabama doesn't produce fine players. They do. But plenty of them take a while to get started and many started a year or two or three at Alabama and weren't the same early in their careers.

 

I may not be disagreeing with your main point much, but I thought your list was a good starting point to discuss the time it takes to improve, both in college and in the NFL.

 

Edited November 29, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Prickly Pete]

This isn't worthy of serious discussion. It's also insulting to the current Bills roster. 

 

"The Body Bag Bowl"

[Dr.Sack]

Alabama would get shredded on both fronts. The Citadel just ran for 250 yards on them. I could only imagine what we could do to them out of a jumbo set.

[mannc]

6 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said:

Alabama would get shredded on both fronts. The Citadel just ran for 250 yards on them. I could only imagine what we could do to them out of a jumbo set.

How’d LSU do against them at home?

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

I may not be disagreeing with your main point much, but I thought your list was a good starting point to discuss the time it takes to improve, both in college and in the NFL.

 

 

I don't think you are disagreeing much because my main point of disagreement has been with the tired cliché that "NFL is the best of the best and college teams are full of guys who would never play in the pros as well as some stars that will." That argument simply doesn't wash when you talk about defenders from Nick Saban's University of Alabama teams. His whole 2016 starting defense is now playing in the NFL 10/11 of them drafted in the 4th round or earlier where the bust rate for 'Bama defenders is even being generous a maximum 15%. By this time next year the 2017 defense will all be in the NFL and at a best guess 9/11 will have been 4th round or earlier picks - again where the bust rate is extremely low. But I don't think you personally are arguing that Thurm - so we are probably in broad agreement there.

 

I think your main point is that while 'Bama defenders generally end up excellent NFL players they probably aren't there in their sophomore or junior year in college when sometimes they are playing significant snaps on the 'Bama defense and therefore the NFL players on whichever bottom feeder offense you put them against (and this is not a Bills question for me it is more a question about the principle of the thing) would take advantage. I do think there is something in that - maybe someone like a Charles Clay (just used for illustrative reasons) might not have a speed or talent advantage over the Alabama defense but he would have an experience advantage and an ability to outsmart them. I can see that argument and I think it is the strongest argument that has been put forward as to why bottom feeder NFL offenses would put big points up on Alabama's more talented defense - smarts and experience.

 

My only reservation is that some of these NFL bottom feeder offenses are ill prepared week to week, make mistakes that hurt themselves and are often starting people themselves who are early in their NFL careers and trying to find their way - whether that be say a Wyatt Teller or a Robert Foster type. I know that if you gave the Alabama squad the same ability to focus on their practice for a week and not have to go to classes Saban would produce a team that would be super prepared on defense. If a bottom feeder NFL offense was ill prepared and made mistakes to beat themselves then I do think it is possible that the talent on the Alabama defense - whether it was the 2016 D, the 2017 D or the 2018 D would be capable of keeping it closer than you and others who share your view believe.

 

PS. Marlon Humphrey is good. He is playing really well this year on a good defense - that 2017 corner class is going to go down as historically good. Ryan Anderson isn't a starter in Washington - that is true - he has two outstanding edge rushers ahead of him but he has become more and more of a fixture in the rotation as this season has gone on and has beaten out Pernell McPhee who is not that many years removed from signing a big FA contract with the Bears to be the primary rotation and backup to Smith and Kerrigan.

 

 

[Dopey]

1 hour ago, mannc said:

How’d LSU do against them at home?

LSU couldn't hang with the Bills either. They gave up 74 points to Texas A&M. 74 points.

[Kirby Jackson]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

No, I'm very much NOT making your point. 

 

They have 12 there, an all-time high and very possibly an outlier. And of those 12 more than half have not been able to get regular NFL snaps yet. And while more may become that good next year and more yet the year after ... very few guys who are younger than the guys coming out would be ready to play against NFL players right now. Those guys right now are 19 and 20 years old. They're not ready.

 

Size? Yeah, Bama guys are NFL-standard mostly. Strength? Nah. The NFL guys have nutrition coaching and a year in an NFL strength coaching program and they're not 19 and 20 years old. Expensive strength coaches are nice, but Bama guys are mostly on meal programs and studying for classes while Bills guys eat at the facility and don't worry about anything but football, and that's all beyond the college guys simply having had years less of a lifting history.  They don't have to spend time taking classes and preparing for tests. NFL guys have several major advantages over college guys in terms of strength even if the college guys have the genetics to catch up when given the same time and advantages given the NFL guys.

 

Your number (30+) isn't conservative. But let's say it's right on. Being on an NFL roster doesn't mean you're good enough to start or even be any good. Take the 2014 draft. Eight Bama guys drafted. CJ Mosley and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix are fine players. Do you want the other six to be your starters? Cyrus Kouandjio, WR Kevin Norwood, DE Ed Stinson, QB AJ McCarron, S Vinnie Sunseri and JE Jeoffrey Pagan?

 

Or 2013: Dee Milliner, Chance Warmack, DJ Fluker and Eddie Lacy are all solid guys, though not outstanding by any means, though there were three guys there in the top eleven picks. Do you want the other five guys starting? LB Nico Johnson, G Barrett Jones, DT Jesse Williams, DE Quinton Dial and TE Michael Williams?

 

Or 2012: Trent Richardson, Mark Barron, Dre Kirkpatrick and certainly Dont'a Hightower are solid players. LB Courtney Upshaw? DT Josh Chapman? CB Dequan Menzie? TE Brad Smelley?

 

Now if that 2014 team is playing an NFL team, you have Mosley and Clinton-Dix as seniors .... Milliner, Warmack, Fluker and Eddie Lacey a year early and Richardson, Barron, Kirkpatrick and Hightower two years early.

 

And the others. I may have missed a player or two there but most of them didn't pan out and certainly wouldn't have even done that well a year or two early.

 

Sorry, man, but it's not even close. They would be lucky to score a single TD or force more than maybe a single punt.

You are making my point. They’ve had 34 drafted over the last 3 years and this is the most talented team yet. Again, there are nfl starters now that weren’t drafted (and didn’t start at Alabama).

 

If you think that ‘Bama guys are on meal programs like college kids you really don’t know big time college football. Here’s a look at their $14M nutrition facility: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sportingnews.com/us/amp/ncaa-football/news/alabama-football-crimson-tide-video-photos-twitter-nutrition-facility-college-football-ncaa/1smhonxn9x1cf1mxh1so8mc0b0. They employe 5 performance chefs and 4 dietitians. 

 

With all due respect, at Alabama and some other major programs football is their life. It is the minor leagues. That is their responsibility. Lifting programs start younger and younger. The high school football programs around here employe full time strength coaches just for the football teams. If you were to look at the strength numbers of the Alabama players and stack it next to the Bills it would be virtually identical. 

 

Again, the entire conversation is about THIS Alabama team. I’d bet any amount of money that you wanted that 30+ guys on this roster go to the NFL. They are not similar to “insert solid program here.” This is an evolving machine. It is the top recruits with the top coach. It is at an all-time high. They’ve won every game by over 20 points. This is the outlier. I still say 30-10.

Edited November 29, 2018 by Kirby Jackson

[row_33]

6 hours ago, OJ Tom said:

This isn't worthy of serious discussion. It's also insulting to the current Bills roster. 

 

"The Body Bag Bowl"

 

Some people are writing mini-novels about it.

 

[Kirby Jackson]

51 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

Some people are writing mini-novels about it.

 

It’s certainly an interesting conversation. There is a ton of evidence on all sides of the conversation. It’s infinitely more interesting than “Peterman sucks” and “Tre White is great.” 

[78thealltimegreat]

watch them lose to Georgia  on Saturday 

[GoBills808]

I honestly don't think they gain 50 yards the entire game. And maybe they get lucky with an incompletion here and there, but otherwise the Bills are scoring every possession and Alabama is going 3 and out for a score of like 40-0.

[mannc]

15 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

watch them lose to Georgia  on Saturday 

Wanna bet?