berg1029 Posted November 5, 2018 Posted November 5, 2018 1 minute ago, jrober38 said: Bottoming out is an NBA strategy. It's not something that has much of a track record in the NFL. The reality is that the higher your draft position, the better your chance is of hitting on the prospects, no matter what the sport. Sure, there are teams that annually screw up the draft no matter where they pick (Browns), but that doesn't really change the fact that the draft is the great equalizer. It's how bad teams become good teams
jrober38 Posted November 5, 2018 Posted November 5, 2018 1 minute ago, berg1029 said: The reality is that the higher your draft position, the better your chance is of hitting on the prospects, no matter what the sport. Sure, there are teams that annually screw up the draft no matter where they pick (Browns), but that doesn't really change the fact that the draft is the great equalizer. It's how bad teams become good teams Sure, but it's exponentially higher in the NBA where there are only two rounds of the draft. Lottery picks, particularly in the top 5, work out significantly more often than guys picked in the 20-30 range who you're pretty much just hoping become bench players. In the NFL, top 10 picks are more likely to work, but it's not a big difference between those guys and the guys picked at the end of round 1. There is hardly any evidence that tanking is a tried and tested strategy in the NFL. Usually the teams picking in the top 10 are the same teams picking there every year. 1
oldmanfan Posted November 5, 2018 Posted November 5, 2018 Beane and McD did not expect this. They did know they needed to clear some guys out and get cap space for guys they felt would be better, but they could not have imagined this mess. A couple things contribute to it: 1. When you get two QBs injured in one season, it is going to stink regardless of anything else. I don't think Peterman was terrible yesterday, but he was what one could reasonably expect: a second or third string guy that tried to keep his team in it. They could have, and Beane said should have, gotten a vet in here earlier, but I don't think that changes the equation much. One can only hope Allen gets back soon. 2. The O line fell apart after Wood retired and Richie went crazy. It is difficult enough to find O linemen that can play today, and that situation was made worse by these two losses. They tried to fill in with Bodine when Groy wet the bed, but yesterday's performance was beyond the pale. I must have screamed ten time: BLOCK SOMEBODY! This has to be the main emphasis in the off season. Has to be. And that may start with a new O line coach. 3. WRs that forgot how to catch and/or compete. I understand trying to bring Benjamin in last year since they had their playoff shot. But his inability to catch and seeming disinterest in competing must be a shock to the two leaders of the organization. They tried to bring guys in like Brown as FAs, but they didn't get them. as with the O line, another main emphasis in the off-season. 4. Shady aging suddenly: He is not the same Shady we've seen before. A lot of that is O line, but Ivory can be productive as a guy that is a one cut hit the hole type. Shady may need to be used more as a change of pace, split him outside kind of guy now. 5. Coaching: The hot thing is getting a fairly young O coordinator willing to bring in some college stuff. I think Daboll fits that bill, but he is hamstrung by the above motioned talent gaps. I think they need to lean on him heavily this coming off-season to target guys he believes can help him in the offense he wants to run. Castillo can go; let Daboll bring a line coach in that coaches what he wants. A new special teams guy might be OK. And McD may have to call the defensive plays
iinii Posted November 5, 2018 Posted November 5, 2018 16 hours ago, John from Riverside said: The bills are doing exactly what they are trying to do get a top 5 pick in this next draft i don’t like how bad they look on offense either but the fact is they are trying to avoid overpaying for free agents in the offseason to fix this mess you do that by drafting high because less of a chance to screw it up This season is LOST it was always going to be LOST if you can get your mind wrapped around that it will help with your sanity It does not matter if you lose by 1 or 100 a loss is a loss This team is tanking so it can acquire blue chip talent and not have to pay for it they are going to target specific free agents and draft at the big money positions be patient I really believe everyone understands the concept of tanking. The two basic problems I and others have are this wasn’t necessary ( before you go on about how it was) remember we have different opinions and neither of us are inherently right or wrong. Two if OBD was indeed tanking, which they are, then drop the charade and tell the truth. We may be “trying” to win but we would prefer not to. AND if you are only going to field half a team only charge half price on the ducats, beer and swag. 21 minutes ago, berg1029 said: It's funny because people have been saying we need to bottom out for years. All of a sudden, we are actually bottoming out and now people act like the sky is falling. It's almost like people want to us to be 7-9 every year. The Bills already have half of the equation- the defense. With a ton of money to spend, some high draft picks, and Allen having a year under his belt...the offensive turnaround should be pretty sharp when it comes A year under his belt rehabbing an elbow?
jrober38 Posted November 5, 2018 Posted November 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: Beane and McD did not expect this. They did know they needed to clear some guys out and get cap space for guys they felt would be better, but they could not have imagined this mess. A couple things contribute to it: 1. When you get two QBs injured in one season, it is going to stink regardless of anything else. I don't think Peterman was terrible yesterday, but he was what one could reasonably expect: a second or third string guy that tried to keep his team in it. They could have, and Beane said should have, gotten a vet in here earlier, but I don't think that changes the equation much. One can only hope Allen gets back soon. 2. The O line fell apart after Wood retired and Richie went crazy. It is difficult enough to find O linemen that can play today, and that situation was made worse by these two losses. They tried to fill in with Bodine when Groy wet the bed, but yesterday's performance was beyond the pale. I must have screamed ten time: BLOCK SOMEBODY! This has to be the main emphasis in the off season. Has to be. And that may start with a new O line coach. 3. WRs that forgot how to catch and/or compete. I understand trying to bring Benjamin in last year since they had their playoff shot. But his inability to catch and seeming disinterest in competing must be a shock to the two leaders of the organization. They tried to bring guys in like Brown as FAs, but they didn't get them. as with the O line, another main emphasis in the off-season. 4. Shady aging suddenly: He is not the same Shady we've seen before. A lot of that is O line, but Ivory can be productive as a guy that is a one cut hit the hole type. Shady may need to be used more as a change of pace, split him outside kind of guy now. 5. Coaching: The hot thing is getting a fairly young O coordinator willing to bring in some college stuff. I think Daboll fits that bill, but he is hamstrung by the above motioned talent gaps. I think they need to lean on him heavily this coming off-season to target guys he believes can help him in the offense he wants to run. Castillo can go; let Daboll bring a line coach in that coaches what he wants. A new special teams guy might be OK. And McD may have to call the defensive plays Oh god. 1. The guy who played yesterday was the QB who "won" their QB competition in the summer. This was the guy who they felt so comfortable with going into the season that they traded AJ McCarron. This was their choice. 2. These guys were never in their plans this year. Wood retired last January. They had plenty of time to replace those guys, but opted not to. 3. This group of WRs was hand picked by this regime. They traded a 3rd round pick to get Kelvin Benjamin, and they traded up because they had to have Zay Jones in the 2nd round last year. These are the guys they wanted to build around. 4. Shocking. A 30 year old running back is showing signs of age. Like that's never happened before. 5. McDermott has hired two offensive coordinators, and they've both been horrible. Their systems are dated and lack creativity. We don't do any of the things you see from top offenses around the NFL. The offense we're watching set records due to ineptitude is the offense Sean McDermott intentionally put on the field this year. These are his QBs, his offensive line, his group of running backs, and his hand picked group of wide receivers. But some how it's not his fault. 2
berg1029 Posted November 5, 2018 Posted November 5, 2018 (edited) 20 minutes ago, jrober38 said: Sure, but it's exponentially higher in the NBA where there are only two rounds of the draft. Lottery picks, particularly in the top 5, work out significantly more often than guys picked in the 20-30 range who you're pretty much just hoping become bench players. In the NFL, top 10 picks are more likely to work, but it's not a big difference between those guys and the guys picked at the end of round 1. There is hardly any evidence that tanking is a tried and tested strategy in the NFL. Usually the teams picking in the top 10 are the same teams picking there every year. Yeah, I agree, aside from selecting QBs (one QB pick can turn a franchise around very quickly-but this is unlikely to be what Buffalo is picking). Bottoming out in the NFL isn't necessarily a single year thing a majority of the time-usually a team will be down there for a few years, until they acquire enough talent to leave the bottom. Non-QBs can't influence the outcome of a game as much as players in other sports. I think the Bills have a chance to have a nice turnaround though because they have a young QB already and they have a decent defense. These sorts of team compositions are usually what fuels a quick turnaround. Look at the Bears this year. Look at the Eagles after they got Carson Wentz. Look at the Rams. They all already had a decent defense and a young QB, but bringing in a new offensive strategy changed their entire outlook. I think the Bills are a few offensive players short of being able to have a turnaround like that, but having a high pick and buckets of cash when combined with a change of OC could certainly go a long way towards fueling a pretty quick turnaround. edit: the other side of this coin is obviously mcdermott. he needs to be willing to change his offensive philosophy. he hasn't really shown the willingness to change Edited November 5, 2018 by berg1029
jrober38 Posted November 5, 2018 Posted November 5, 2018 1 minute ago, berg1029 said: Yeah, I agree, aside from selecting QBs (one QB pick can turn a franchise around very quickly-but this is unlikely to be what Buffalo is picking). Bottoming out in the NFL isn't necessarily a single year thing a majority of the time-usually a team will be down there for a few years, until they acquire enough talent to leave the bottom. Non-QBs can't influence the outcome of a game as much as players in other sports. I think the Bills have a chance to have a nice turnaround though because they have a young QB already and they have a decent defense. These sorts of team compositions are usually what fuels a quick turnaround. Look at the Bears this year. Look at the Eagles after they got Carson Wentz. Look at the Rams. They all already had a decent defense and a young QB, but bringing in a new offensive strategy changed their entire outlook. I think the Bills are a few offensive players short of being able to have a turnaround like that, but having a high pick and buckets of cash when combined with a change of OC could certainly go a long way towards fueling a pretty quick turnaround. Almost all of the teams your telling me to "look at" got better after they fired their defensive minded head coach and hired a forward thinking guy to fix the offense. Sean McDermott isn't going to be the guy to improve the offense. 1
berg1029 Posted November 5, 2018 Posted November 5, 2018 Just now, jrober38 said: Almost all of the teams your telling me to "look at" got better after they fired their defensive minded head coach and hired a forward thinking guy to fix the offense. Sean McDermott isn't going to be the guy to improve the offense. Was literally editing this as you replied lol. We'll see what happens.
oldmanfan Posted November 5, 2018 Posted November 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, jrober38 said: Oh god. 1. The guy who played yesterday was the QB who "won" their QB competition in the summer. This was the guy who they felt so comfortable with going into the season that they traded AJ McCarron. This was their choice. 2. These guys were never in their plans this year. Wood retired last January. They had plenty of time to replace those guys, but opted not to. 3. This group of WRs was hand picked by this regime. They traded a 3rd round pick to get Kelvin Benjamin, and they traded up because they had to have Zay Jones in the 2nd round last year. These are the guys they wanted to build around. 4. Shocking. A 30 year old running back is showing signs of age. Like that's never happened before. 5. McDermott has hired two offensive coordinators, and they've both been horrible. Their systems are dated and lack creativity. We don't do any of the things you see from top offenses around the NFL. The offense we're watching set records due to ineptitude is the offense Sean McDermott intentionally put on the field this year. These are his QBs, his offensive line, his group of running backs, and his hand picked group of wide receivers. But some how it's not his fault. Did I say it was not his fault? No. They did try to replace Wood with Groy and then Bodine. They tried to bring other guys like Brown in at WR but he signed elsewhere. And Daboll's offense will be fine once he gets guys that can play. Yes it's on them. They have to fix the offense this offseason. It's on them to do that. Meanwhile, you pontificate as if you are a genius at NFL football, and as I say all the time you are the guy back on the BBMB who said he'd trade his entire draft to get - wait for it - Jameis Winston!!! You have no credibility, so quit trying to pass yourself off as some guru. Your opinion is no more valid that anyone else around here. 1
jrober38 Posted November 5, 2018 Posted November 5, 2018 1 minute ago, oldmanfan said: Did I say it was not his fault? No. They did try to replace Wood with Groy and then Bodine. They tried to bring other guys like Brown in at WR but he signed elsewhere. And Daboll's offense will be fine once he gets guys that can play. Yes it's on them. They have to fix the offense this offseason. It's on them to do that. Meanwhile, you pontificate as if you are a genius at NFL football, and as I say all the time you are the guy back on the BBMB who said he'd trade his entire draft to get - wait for it - Jameis Winston!!! You have no credibility, so quit trying to pass yourself off as some guru. Your opinion is no more valid that anyone else around here. My track record for QBs going back 10 years has been very good. Thanks for focusing on one guy as if that's the only QB I liked or disliked as a prospect. The offense we're watching right now is the offense McDermott and Beane assembled. These are all their guys, and the result is the worst offense the league has seen in 20 years. And people want to give them more time to fix this dumpster fire. Hilarious. 1
John from Riverside Posted November 5, 2018 Author Posted November 5, 2018 1 minute ago, jrober38 said: My track record for QBs going back 10 years has been very good. Thanks for focusing on one guy as if that's the only QB I liked or disliked as a prospect. The offense we're watching right now is the offense McDermott and Beane assembled. These are all their guys, and the result is the worst offense the league has seen in 20 years. And people want to give them more time to fix this dumpster fire. Hilarious. When you constantly take the negative side....your percentage is going to be overall good.....so this does not really mean much. 1
Real McClappy Posted November 5, 2018 Posted November 5, 2018 Can some explain to me how 90mill during FA and 10 draft picks cannot result in 7-8 new Offensive starters next year? The only thing I ever see is no one will sign in Buffalo which is non-sense.
jrober38 Posted November 5, 2018 Posted November 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said: When you constantly take the negative side....your percentage is going to be overall good.....so this does not really mean much. Being right most of the time doesn't mean much because I'm capable of following basic probabilities? OK. 2 minutes ago, Real McCoy said: Can some explain to me how 90mill during FA and 10 draft picks cannot result in 7-8 new Offensive starters next year? The only thing I ever see is no one will sign in Buffalo which is non-sense. The upcoming offensive free agent class is terrible. Also there are 10 teams in the NFL with more than $60 mil in cap space. The Bills got into this mess by overpaying mediocre free agents. To find 7-8 new starters we'll likely have to repeat that same mistake by overpaying guys who aren't very good.
oldmanfan Posted November 5, 2018 Posted November 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, jrober38 said: My track record for QBs going back 10 years has been very good. Thanks for focusing on one guy as if that's the only QB I liked or disliked as a prospect. The offense we're watching right now is the offense McDermott and Beane assembled. These are all their guys, and the result is the worst offense the league has seen in 20 years. And people want to give them more time to fix this dumpster fire. Hilarious. Yes, you would have traded an entire draft for a guy that is horrible. Own it. And then quit lecturing folks around here about what passes for quality decision making in the NFL. Because you don't have any better idea than the next guy. They drafted the guy they want to lead the franchise this year, they now need to build around him. It is amazing around here how many people yelled about how the y will never be a winner until they get their QB, then when they get who they hope is their QB all of a sudden everything flips and it's that they haven't put pieces around the QB, and that's it's not the QB that's the most important thing. They know they have a ton to do on the offense. Their jobs will depend on that. As it should be. And before you start with your crap about Allen, I have one word for you: Winston. 2
Real McClappy Posted November 5, 2018 Posted November 5, 2018 (edited) 5 minutes ago, jrober38 said: Being right most of the time doesn't mean much because I'm capable of following basic probabilities? OK. The upcoming offensive free agent class is terrible. Also there are 10 teams in the NFL with more than $60 mil in cap space. The Bills got into this mess by overpaying mediocre free agents. To find 7-8 new starters we'll likely have to repeat that same mistake by overpaying guys who aren't very good. The O-line FA's are solid and ample. We can rebuild our entire O-line alone in FA, with proper long term contracts. WR's in FA are weak and we will need to address in the draft and possible trades. Everything else is there. Edited November 5, 2018 by Real McCoy
jrober38 Posted November 5, 2018 Posted November 5, 2018 Just now, oldmanfan said: Yes, you would have traded an entire draft for a guy that is horrible. Own it. And then quit lecturing folks around here about what passes for quality decision making in the NFL. Because you don't have any better idea than the next guy. They drafted the guy they want to lead the franchise this year, they now need to build around him. It is amazing around here how many people yelled about how the y will never be a winner until they get their QB, then when they get who they hope is their QB all of a sudden everything flips and it's that they haven't put pieces around the QB, and that's it's not the QB that's the most important thing. They know they have a ton to do on the offense. Their jobs will depend on that. As it should be. And before you start with your crap about Allen, I have one word for you: Winston. My guess is that in 3 years Allen will have been permanently benched long before Winston was.
oldmanfan Posted November 5, 2018 Posted November 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Real McCoy said: The O-line FA's are solid and ample. We can rebuild our entire O-line alone in FA, with proper long term contracts. WR's in FA are weak and we will need to address in the draft and possible trades. Everything else is there. How dare you point out fact to the guru of the NFL.
jrober38 Posted November 5, 2018 Posted November 5, 2018 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Real McCoy said: The O-line FA's are solid and ample. We can rebuild our entire O-line alone in FA, with proper long term contracts. WR's in FA are weak and we will need to address in the draft and possible trades. Everything else is there. You act like no one else in the NFL is going to try and upgrade their offensive line. Every team ranking in the top 5 of cap space needs offensive line help. There's no magic wand that's going to upgrade this offense in one offseason, especially when you consider how inept this regime has been at evaluating that side of the ball. The state of the Bills will make it very hard to sign quality FAs unless we drastically overpay this spring. Edited November 5, 2018 by jrober38 1
oldmanfan Posted November 5, 2018 Posted November 5, 2018 Just now, jrober38 said: My guess is that in 3 years Allen will have been permanently benched long before Winston was. Guess. Thankfully you realize maybe that all your pontificating is guesswork. Maybe we should pick up your boy Winston. Just now, jrober38 said: You act like no one else in the NFL is going to try and upgrade their offensive line. Every team ranking in the top 5 of cap space needs offensive line help. There's no magic wand that's going to upgrade this offense in one offseason, especially when you consider how inept this regime has been at evaluating that side of the ball. Duh. They have to compete in the free agent market. Water is also wet. Target guys you really think will make a difference and go get them. I suspect they have guys they're looking at like Hyde and Poyer, somewhat under the radar but solid contributors.
jrober38 Posted November 5, 2018 Posted November 5, 2018 Just now, oldmanfan said: Guess. Thankfully you realize maybe that all your pontificating is guesswork. Maybe we should pick up your boy Winston. Sure. Winston would be a massive upgrade over the garbage we've fielded at QB this year.
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