Why rebuilding isn't an excuse for what's happening this year

[dickleyjones]

1 hour ago, HomeskillitMoorman said:

I'm not talking about the record, I've never cared about that for this season. But I think that's what some people think rebuilding is, and that's all it is. There's a development process within rebuilding that the regime should be judged on as they go, they're not successfully rebuilding because we stink. What I wanted to see was organizational progress, and the #1 priority there is the development of the guy they used a lot of assets and draft capital to get...yet we're basically going to lose an entire year of legitimate development for him.

 

How it can be excused that after 2 offseasons with this regime, knowing the franchise QB they picked would be the difference between it being a success or a failure, that we have absolutely no protection or weapons for him? I don't know that he's going to be good even with that, I don't know if he has the accuracy to be a top level QB, but we have to find out as soon as possible.

 

And what faith, not in the McDermott/Peterman way, are we supposed to have that this regime can identify talent on the o-line when after 2 offseasons we have one passable starter? Are we supposed to be confident that they can find 4 before next season? Let alone skill players at almost every single offensive position. 

 

The progression during the rebuild is what needs to be looked at, and I think it's alarming how many holes we have after 2 offseasons. A successful rebuild in today's NFL should really happen in 3 years and we're not even close to that. The organizational planning is also very concerning, most notably with obviously how the QB situation was so badly handled this year. When you watch these games from Peterman and Anderson...this is the brainpower and evaluation abilities of Beane and McDermott at work. 

 

I don't care about being 2-6 or whatever we end up with. But to basically lose an entire precious year of development on the offensive side of the ball doesn't instill much faith in Beane and McDermott's ability to rebuild. 

fanbase faith won't determine whether the rebuild is a success or not. results will. we will know when the results are in. they are not in yet.

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, dneveu said:

 

I'm in on another QB.  I am not in on another 1st round QB.

There is no chance.....like none that the bills take a 1st round QB in next year's draft.   Depending on where we my imo it will be

 

Top 2 - one of the top pass rushers

Top 3 - trade down for more picks

Top 5 - best available LT

 

It trips me out how ppl undervalue the offensive line position and dont think taking a LT that can start form day 1 would not immediately improve this team.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 minute ago, HomeskillitMoorman said:

 

 

I don't care at all about 2-6. I'd be happier if we were 0-8 but had some level of decent protection for our rookie QB and at least a couple of weapons and see the development of a real offense. That's where this league is if you want a perennial contender. No team in this league sustains a great defense for a long period of time anymore. It's going to fluctuate. Having a top level QB is the way to become a contender year after year. 

 

Nothing being said here is subjective, unless you're arguing that more talent around a rookie QB would somehow be a deterrent. And if you're arguing that, I don't really know what to say. 

 

They will improve the offensive line in the offseason.  They will add WRs in the offseason.  I think Shady is set here for 1 more year because why mess with it.  He can still be a weapon in the 200 touch range, we'll still have murphy and ivory.  The offense needs to be overhauled around that.  The only oline guys who look like theyre likely to stick would be Bodine, Ducasse, Dawkins, maybe Teller/Mcdermott - and thats because they're under contract.  I think they need to bring in 3 new guys though.  WR they need at least 2 new starters, and i think the depth can improve too. 

[HomeskillitMoorman]

2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I agree that we are in year 2 of the rebiuld.......the problem i am having with your idea is that you think rebiulds should take 2 years max.

 

That is not the way Beane and McD did it......I totally respect the opinions of ppl that didnt like the approach that Beane and McD took.....but....THIS IS THE WAY THEY CHOSE TO DO IT

 

The dead cap situation (which yes they created) made it impossible to be competative this year.   My personal opinion now is that they expected to be bad on offense....but not THIS bad.

 

You dont get a top 5 pick in the draft by being good.   It shocks me a little bit that we were not sellers at the trade deadline to accumulate even more picks.

 

I never said 2 years max, in fact multiple times I've said 3 is usually the standard. But even then, it's more about progression. With the way Beane and McDermott accumulated assets to trade up for a franchise QB...they seemed to have some level of understanding of how important that is. And that was the plan for 2 offseasons. But along the way, they decided not to protect that QB or give him anyone to throw to. This is basically going to be a complete year wasted of offensive development because even if Allen does come back, they're just going to continue to run this bland, conservative offense that is not the modern offense that you have to be building towards anyway. THAT'S my problem.

 

This is far and away an offense-first league if you want to be good for an extended period of time...and somehow this regime has put it completely on the backburner. 

3 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Are you saying that more talent around Allen would NOT have made a difference?   Really?

 

No. The exact opposite. 

[John from Riverside]

Just now, HomeskillitMoorman said:

 

I never said 2 years max, in fact multiple times I've said 3 is usually the standard. But even then, it's more about progression. With the way Beane and McDermott accumulated assets to trade up for a franchise QB...they seemed to have some level of understanding of how important that is. And that was the plan for 2 offseasons. But along the way, they decided not to protect that QB or give him anyone to throw to. This is basically going to be a complete year wasted of offensive development because even if Allen does come back, they're just going to continue to run this bland, conservative offense that is not the modern offense that you have to be building towards anyway. THAT'S my problem.

 

This is far and away an offense-first league if you want to be good for an extended period of time...and somehow this regime has put it completely on the backburner. 

Progression is almost never always trending up.......for us it is has been and is going to be all over the place

 

year 1 - make the playoffs......who does that in a rebiuld

year 2 - this year.....more in line with what a rebiuld looks like

year 3 - who knows?

 

There simply is not enough data to even know yet.   I know this.  If we are not aggressively improving this offense in the offseason I will be off this current bills management train.

[billsfan_34]

5 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

I'm in on another QB.  I am not in on another 1st round QB.

Me too- rd 2-4 ! 

[Dablitzkrieg]

15 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

This offensive line is in fact playing bad.....they cannot block for the run to save their lives....they cannot get out in front of screens......they are inconsistant in their pass protection

 

They are playing bad

K

[HomeskillitMoorman]

2 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

They will improve the offensive line in the offseason.  They will add WRs in the offseason.  I think Shady is set here for 1 more year because why mess with it.  He can still be a weapon in the 200 touch range, we'll still have murphy and ivory.  The offense needs to be overhauled around that.  The only oline guys who look like theyre likely to stick would be Bodine, Ducasse, Dawkins, maybe Teller/Mcdermott - and thats because they're under contract.  I think they need to bring in 3 new guys though.  WR they need at least 2 new starters, and i think the depth can improve too. 

 

They've been able to find 1 passable starter on the o-line in 2 offseasons...but they're going to find 4 this upcoming one? And they need a whole new set of WR's and TE's. The RB's are OK but Shady and Ivory are probably close to the end and Murphy's OK but not really a starting RB of the future. 

2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Progression is almost never always trending up.......for us it is has been and is going to be all over the place

 

year 1 - make the playoffs......who does that in a rebiuld

year 2 - this year.....more in line with what a rebiuld looks like

year 3 - who knows?

 

There simply is not enough data to even know yet.   I know this.  If we are not aggressively improving this offense in the offseason I will be off this current bills management train.

 

That's because you're only looking at this from a record standpoint. I don't think that's what a rebuild is all about. To me, it's about development. 2 years in we have absolute zero development on the most important part of a football team in today's league. 

[billsfan_34]

36 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

Allen is a high ceiling guy in the future but he was not polished coming in, to make a determination now is the definition of shortsighted. The vast majority of players take more than 4 games to get good-some take years so maybe slow the firing squad.

Nowhere in there have I said ive given up on Allen. Many have seen the same accuracy issues that worried people when he was at Wyoming. If he can fix them the sky is the limit, but I have reservations and it is smart to grab another QB. Everything behind him right now is a trash heap anyways.

[JohninMinn.]

The Bills will be fine. Josh's skills are adequate, but more importantly his leadership is what will lead us to the promised land. Marginal fans are panicking and consequently looking foolish right now.

[John from Riverside]

3 minutes ago, HomeskillitMoorman said:

 

They've been able to find 1 passable starter on the o-line in 2 offseasons...but they're going to find 4 this upcoming one? And they need a whole new set of WR's and TE's. The RB's are OK but Shady and Ivory are probably close to the end and Murphy's OK but not really a starting RB of the future. 

 

That's because you're only looking at this from a record standpoint. I don't think that's what a rebuild is all about. To me, it's about development. 2 years in we have absolute zero development on the most important part of a football team in today's league. 

I am actually not looking at it from a records standpoint at all

 

This offense was ALWAYS going to look worse at first after Tyrod left because he was a bandaid (not the answer) but now you miss what he actually does well.......you have to get worse in order to get better because your going with a rookie qb

 

meanhile...the D makes steady improviment but that is because it actually has talent

[mjt328]

1 hour ago, HomeskillitMoorman said:

I'm not talking about the record, I've never cared about that for this season. But I think that's what some people think rebuilding is, and that's all it is. There's a development process within rebuilding that the regime should be judged on as they go, they're not successfully rebuilding because we stink. What I wanted to see was organizational progress, and the #1 priority there is the development of the guy they used a lot of assets and draft capital to get...yet we're basically going to lose an entire year of legitimate development for him.

 

How it can be excused that after 2 offseasons with this regime, knowing the franchise QB they picked would be the difference between it being a success or a failure, that we have absolutely no protection or weapons for him? I don't know that he's going to be good even with that, I don't know if he has the accuracy to be a top level QB, but we have to find out as soon as possible.

 

And what faith, not in the McDermott/Peterman way, are we supposed to have that this regime can identify talent on the o-line when after 2 offseasons we have one passable starter? Are we supposed to be confident that they can find 4 before next season? Let alone skill players at almost every single offensive position. 

 

The progression during the rebuild is what needs to be looked at, and I think it's alarming how many holes we have after 2 offseasons. A successful rebuild in today's NFL should really happen in 3 years and we're not even close to that. The organizational planning is also very concerning, most notably with obviously how the QB situation was so badly handled this year. When you watch these games from Peterman and Anderson...this is the brainpower and evaluation abilities of Beane and McDermott at work. 

 

I don't care about being 2-6 or whatever we end up with. But to basically lose an entire precious year of development on the offensive side of the ball doesn't instill much faith in Beane and McDermott's ability to rebuild. 

 

Bottom line.  You cannot judge whether this rebuild is successful, UNTIL it has been completed.

 

The argument I keep seeing is that a poor O-Line and lack of WR talent is going to damage Josh Allen's long-term development.  But I don't necessarily think that is true.  The top drafted QBs in 2016 and 2017 - Jared Goff and Mitch Trubisky - both had terrible offensive players around them as rookies.  And both struggled horribly in their initial seasons.  But it didn't stunt their long-term development.  Both guys took massive steps forward in their sophomore seasons.

 

Despite what some people may believe, I think the Bills are very much on track to be competitive within the 3rd Year of the rebuild.

 

If you were to look around the league, you would find that a GM can address approximately 25% percent of the roster per year.  In the two Beane/McDermott offseasons, they have addressed QB (Allen), WR1 (Benjamin), WR2 (Jones), LT (Dawkins), DE (Murphy), DT1 (Lotulelei), DT2 (Phillips), WLB (Milano), MLB (Edmunds), CB (White), SS (Hyde) and FS (Poyer) with Day 1-2 Picks or significant Free Agent contracts.  That's 12 of the 22 starting spots (4 on offense, 8 on defense).  Even if you consider the WR selections busts, we are right on track.

 

The focus on the defense has clearly worked, and that side of the ball looks very good.  The offense has barely been touched, and it's hard to judge whether Benjamin or Jones were good additions, because they are getting dragged down by a rookie QB.  Which should ABSOLUTELY be expected.  But next offseason, Beane will have plenty of picks and cap space to add another 3-4 linemen, 1-2 receivers, a tight end and maybe even a future replacement for Shady.  If we do that and Allen takes a step forward, you will be surprised how many games the Bills can win.

 

 

Edited November 2, 2018 by mjt328

[billsfan_34]

46 minutes ago, Watkins90 said:

I like how we give up on a rookie QB four games into his NFL career. My god guys. We would be picking QBs in the first round in every draft if we had it your way and dumped someone after one year because they weren't an all-pro. 

Many, including me, havent given up on Allen. Take a qb rd 2-4 and hope he develops. Maybe he develops into a 2, maybe he pushes to start, maybe he stinks! This is a QB league so you must invest in them and be able to identify which ones have a chance.

[Virgil]

54 minutes ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

A couple things here:

 

#1.  The o-line is actually not playing bad

 

#2.  All QB's on the roster are horrible, including Allen.  He is not an accurate passer and I fear the Bills missed on him.

 

#3.  See #2

 

2 - whose fault is that.  Going into our second season, how do we have arguable the worst QB roster in the league?

[H2o]

This thread has opened my eyes. I need to be on board the "Fire everyone, bring back everyone we let go somehow, and draft a QB #1 overall" train. 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

Lolz at this board.  

 

Its really all code for "we are losing so the rebuild isn't working" 

 

You can really hide it in whatever justification you like, the fact is you don't like the pains of a rebuild.  

 

Step one was always get the QB.  Now they got him.  Now they build around him.  Its hard to judge the progress of Allen because he hasn't really played and has been denied the chance to develop.  

 

 

[HomeskillitMoorman]

9 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Bottom line.  You cannot judge whether this rebuild is successful, UNTIL it has been completed.

 

The argument I keep seeing is that a poor O-Line and lack of WR talent is going to damage Josh Allen's long-term development.  But I don't necessarily think that is true.  The top drafted QBs in 2016 and 2017 - Jared Goff and Mitch Trubisky - both had terrible offensive players around them as rookies.  And both struggled horribly in their initial seasons.  But it didn't stunt their long-term development.  Both guys took massive steps forward in their sophomore seasons.

 

Despite what some people may believe, I think the Bills are very much on track to be competitive within the 3rd Year of the rebuild.

 

If you were to look around the league, you would find that a GM can address approximately 25% percent of the roster per year.  In the two Beane/McDermott offseasons, they have addressed QB (Allen), WR1 (Benjamin), WR2 (Jones), LT (Dawkins), DE (Murphy), DT1 (Lotulelei), DT2 (Phillips), WLB (Milano), MLB (Edmunds), CB (White), SS (Hyde) and FS (Poyer) with Day 1-2 Picks or significant Free Agent contracts.  That's 12 of the 22 starting spots (4 on offense, 8 on defense).  Even if you consider the WR selections busts, we are right on track.

 

The focus on the defense has clearly worked, and that side of the ball looks very good.  The offense has barely been touched, and it's hard to judge whether Benjamin or Jones were good additions, because they are getting dragged down by a rookie QB.  Which should ABSOLUTELY be expected.  But next offseason, Beane will have plenty of picks and cap space to add another 3-4 linemen, 1-2 receivers, a tight end and maybe even a future replacement for Shady.  If we do that and Allen takes a step forward, you will be surprised how many games the Bills can win.

 

 

 

I'm not sure how a position can be counted as "addressed" if those players aren't any good. 

 

With Allen I'd say they've potentially addressed the QB position, but I agree with your other post that you have to keep drafting and bringing in different QB's every year to see if you can either find a diamond in the rough in case that top pick doesn't pan out or to develop a quality backup. 

 

WR I don't agree at all. Benjamin doesn't fight for the ball, I don't see how that would change with better QB play. I don't think he's anywhere close to a WR1, and the way he's played most of this year, not even a WR2. Jones is showing some improvement but not at WR2 level. I think he's a WR3 at best. We need at least one top talent there and another very solid option. TE is a definite need. And we have 1 legit starter on the o-line, we need 4 more. On D we still need a linebacker, an edge rusher, and a corner. And obviously we need depth on both sides of the ball. 

 

I can't agree that this is on track after 2 offseasons. That's a lot of holes, and they haven't showed the ability to fill holes with quality, not just literally filling them, at a fast enough pace to think they can even approach all of that in this one coming offseason. 

[Brian3488]

46 minutes ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

I kind of agree with the OP. I also understand the rebuild thing, however I would like to also see development with the QB and offense as a whole. Even when they lose, that's fine, I still want to see a little progress at least with the offense and maybe we still will.

 

There is still time left to show the progression of the QB, but I agree it will also be difficult considering the WR that are not good also. But if we can just see a few spurts here and there with Allen when he gets back, I think a lot of people will feel a little better about things going forward. I know I will.

I think this is a hard year to gauge on progression of QB. Reason being, Daboll is switching the offensive scheme every game, he's experimenting by trial and error, seeing what works and what doesn't. With constant change its hard to see progressions.

Year 2 will be a different story. Daboll will have a year under his belt and by then should know how to correctly work around his players.

Allen will need to show significant progress then.

[HomeskillitMoorman]

4 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

Lolz at this board.  

 

Its really all code for "we are losing so the rebuild isn't working" 

 

You can really hide it in whatever justification you like, the fact is you don't like the pains of a rebuild.  

 

Step one was always get the QB.  Now they got him.  Now they build around him.  Its hard to judge the progress of Allen because he hasn't really played and has been denied the chance to develop.  

 

 

 

Who has he been denied the chance to develop by? This regime. That's really my point here .

 

Was part of step one to get the QB and provide no protection around him for his first year of development? It was either a failure of talent evaluation or being inept in organizational planning. I personally just don't think either bodes well. 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

Just now, HomeskillitMoorman said:

 

Who has he been denied the chance to develop by? This regime. That's really my point here .

 

Was part of step one to get the QB and provide no protection around him for his first year of development? It was either a failure of talent evaluation or being inept in organizational planning. I personally just don't think either bodes well. 

He got hit. You can have the best line in the league and guys get hit. He was injured because of the number of hits, he got injured because of where he was hit.