Brian Dabol's Offense

[Gugny]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, it must be the game plan.

 

It certainly couldn't be because when a team is losing by a lot they have to pass a whole lot to catch up, could it? And we've - you know - been behind by a lot ... a lot. Couldn't be that, could it? Or that on plays like 3rd and 11 a pass is more likely to get a first down then a run and that we've seen a lot of situations like 3rd and 11 this year? Or that teams are laughing at our pass game and loading the box making it very diff

 

Oh, wait, it could. So it is indeed not a coincidence that the ratio is different between wins and losses. But you're confusing cause and effect. Teams that suffer big losses pretty much always are slanted towards far more passing than running.

 

You need far more evidence to make this point.

 

 

 

I've discussed run vs. pass balance after every game this season, so I've done my homework.  In fact, when discussing, I've kept the numbers exclusively to the first half just to avoid the rebuttal you just made.  The evidence is there.  We pass early and we pass often; and there's not one QB on our roster whose abilities and/or experience match that game plan.

[billsfan1959]

11 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

Don't think I've ever seen Daboll call a run play from a 5 WR shotgun spread. Fitz and Anderson are both backups and the latter only had 3 weeks to prepare and still threw for 290 yards. 

 

 

While the game was close into the fourth quarter, Anderson was 12-22 for 136 yards (and 40 of those came on one pass). The rest of his yards came in garbage time after NE was up 25-6. 

[Thurman#1]

43 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

I've discussed run vs. pass balance after every game this season, so I've done my homework.  In fact, when discussing, I've kept the numbers exclusively to the first half just to avoid the rebuttal you just made.  The evidence is there.  We pass early and we pass often; and there's not one QB on our roster whose abilities and/or experience match that game plan.

 

 

Fair enough, you've done your homework, and I didn't understand that before.

 

But I would argue that first, we were well behind in a fair amount of first halfs. And that we're spending a lot of time in long-yardage situations which will move things towards the pass. And that teams are tending to load up against the run and that has allowed teams to throttle our run game to the point where we're only managing 3.7 YPC. We have to have some success passing to loosen up things for the run.

 

When they're stuffing the box, you have to make them pay for that a bit, even if it's only completing short little passes.

 

And we finally did have a bit of success passing, getting a bit better with Anderson and being downright OK against the Pats.

 

But the Pats game is a solid example. 19 runs (for 46 yards) and 26 passes (for 313 yards). But if you look at situations, our hand was forced a lot.

 

1st drive: 3 runs, 3 passes. But the last two passes came on 2nd and nine (flea flicker) and then 3rd and nine.

 

2nd drive: 2 runs, 3 passes. But the last two passes came on 2nd and 13 and 3rd and 13.

 

3rd drive: 1 run, 2 passes. But the 3rd down pass came on 3rd and nine.

 

4th drive:  4 runs, 5 passes. The first pass for a 1st down came on 3rd and six after two runs gained a total of four. And on the final 3rd and eight they ran it to Shady. For a gain of two.

 

That was the first half for the Bills. 10 runs and 13 passes, but several of those passes situationally almost had to be passes. And yet they did cross things up with Shady on the 3rd and eight to go against tendencies.

Edited November 2, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Gugny]

Just now, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Fair enough, you've done your homework, and I didn't understand that before.

 

But I would argue that first, we were well behind in a fair amount of first halfs. And that we're spending a lot of time in long-yardage situations which will move things towards the pass. And that teams are tending to load up against the run and that has allowed teams to throttle our run game to the point where we're only managing 3.7 YPC. We have to have some success passing to loosen up things for the run.

 

When they're stuffing the box, you have to make them pay for that a bit, even if it's only completing short little passes.

 

And we finally did have a bit of success passing, getting a bit better with Anderson and being downright OK against the Pats.

 

But the Pats game is a solid example. 19 runs (for 46 yards) and 26 passes (for 313 yards). But if you look at situations, our hand was forced a lot.

 

1st drive: 3 runs, 3 passes. But the last two passes came on 2nd and nine (flea flicker) and then 3rd and nine.

 

2nd drive: 2 runs, 3 passes. But the last two passes came on 2nd and 13 and 3rd and 13.

 

3rd drive: 1 run, 2 passes. But the 3rd down pass came on 3rd and nine.

 

4th drive:  4 runs, 5 passes. The first pass for a 1st down came on 3rd and six after two runs gained a total of four. And on the final 3rd and eight they ran it to Shady. For a gain of two.

 

That was the first half for the Bills. 10 runs and 13 passes, but several of those passes situationally almost had to be passes.

 

I should also have mentioned that my frustration is mostly with up until Josh Allen got hurt.  The disparity was ridiculous and to do that with a rookie QB on this team was just stupid.

 

The NE game plan is a whole 'nother animal.  Those high school trick plays were horrible.  McCoy ended up with 13 yards on 12 carries.  Yeah, Daboll, the direct snaps were cute, but ineffective.

 

I get that this team doesn't have a lot of talent.  But I refuse to agree that they are THAT bad.  I'm a Benjamin critic as much as the next guy, but he is a decent WR.  A #1?  No.  But decent.  So is Zay Jones.  McCoy.  Ivory.  The line has given ALL of the starting QBs time (at times) to pass the ball.  The run game HAS been successful when they committed to it.

 

This is why I place the blame squarely on Daboll.

[Thurman#1]

The trick plays weren't the reason McCoy ended up with 13 yards on 12 carries.

 

In fact, 12 of his 13 yards came on the first play from scrimmage, the first Wildcat play. The second Wildcat play made 4 yards for Chris Ivory. The third was McCoy for 1. The fourth was McCoy for -3.

 

On a super-quick look-through, I can't find anymore. So McCoy went 3 for 11 on the Wildcat plays and 8 carries for 1 yard on the non-Wildcat plays.

 

I agree that Zay and Benjamin have really come around and are playing well the last three games or so. And I don't think that it's three games, the Anderson games, is entirely coincidence.

 

I just don't completely buy that the run game has been that successful when they committed to it. Looked to me more like we planned a lot of runs against teams we thought we could run against and kept it up when we had some success. I don't know that, obviously. But that's what it looked like to me.

 

If they fire Daboll after the season, I'm fine with it. If they don't, I think it'd show they don't put the blame on him.

Edited November 2, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Boca BIlls]

Anyone who thinks Daboll is the problem is just plain stupid.

[GunnerBill]

40 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

I get that this team doesn't have a lot of talent.  But I refuse to agree that they are THAT bad.  I'm a Benjamin critic as much as the next guy, but he is a decent WR.  A #1?  No.  But decent.  So is Zay Jones.  McCoy.  Ivory.  The line has given ALL of the starting QBs time (at times) to pass the ball.  The run game HAS been successful when they committed to it.

 

I disagree on that. I think Benjamin has been sufficiently bad that he might find himself out of the league, because if he wants to stay in the NFL he is going to have to be comfortable being Justin Hunter. A redzone specialist who is paid as such. He is not going to get a big contract and be a starter. Zay has played okay this season but he is a backend of the roster NFL player. He isn't a starter (top 3) receiver for any team in the league other than the Bills. McCoy and Ivory have struggled to run the ball consistently because our run blocking has been borderline atrocious. The line has pass blocked well at times and badly at times - it has been inconsistent. The run blocking however, has been consistent - consistently bad.

 

If the Bills released their whole offensive roster tomorrow McCoy and Dawkins are the only guys on this offense that would go and win a starting job for another team in the league this season. Benjamin, Zay, Clay, Ivory, Jordan Mills and possibly Bodine would likely get backup jobs somewhere. The rest would not make another roster. That is my honest opinion of were we are. It's a s***fest.

 

EDIT: And I reiterate I am not saying Daboll is good. I just think our offensive coordinators both Dennison and Daboll are getting too much blame for what is fundamentally a talent deficiency problem. I don't know if Daboll is good. I can't tell. Because when I put the all22 on what I see on 75% of the offensive plays is whiffed blocks, dropped balls, fumbled snaps and badly run routes.

Edited November 2, 2018 by GunnerBill

[Nihilarian]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

1. It was late in the 4th and we were down by more than a touchdown. After James White scored we ran 22 legal offensive plays. 21 pass plays and one run. Before that 19 pass v 18 rush. I'd call that pretty balanced.

 

2. Ah the hot hand. Cos change of pace backs never end up with better ypc than feature backs? Maybe every OC should go hot hand?

 

3. There really have not been many of these since the Green Bay game. Two that he did dial up vs New England worked.... except for Clay can't separate and on the second one Anderson fumbled the snap. Players. Not coaching.

 

4. Actually against New England they were trying to get Shady to the edge not run him behind the left guard. He kept getting swallowed in the backfield because.... NEWSFLASH our offensive line sucks. 

 

I am not trying to argue Daboll is good, his resume as an OC is not encouraging. But it is so hard to judge him when the talent is historically bad and the execution is brutal. Week after week after week. Eventually when patterns repeat you have say "maybe these guys just can't play". And they can't. That is the point. 

All good points, save #3 in which you have an OC laying the entire offense on a rookie QB and then calling for mid to deep passes when he doesn't know how to set protections or read a defense much less have the time to throw those mid to deep passes. He did it to Peterman too. This is simply the wrong way to do things.

 

Daboll isn't setting up an offense to help a rookie evolve, develop, learn. He ran his offense like he had an experienced veteran back behind center and the only time his game planning worked is when the team had the lead. Funny how the Bills could pound the ball so effectively against two pretty good defenses in the Titans, Vikings when they had a lead.

 

Plus, all the penalties over the season 60 for 479 yards and most are on the offense, holding, false start, players not lining up correctly. This is simply a poorly coached offense. 

 

 

I watched the raiders at SF game last night and saw a kid by the name of Nick Mullens who had been on the Niners practice squad last year, and this year.  He was pulled off that practice squad with only one week to prepare...he looked like Joe Montana ripping the Raiders a new one over and over. That's coaching! Both the Raiders and 49ers were 1-7 teams and this looked like what the 1-5 Colts did to the Bills, only they had Andrew Luck. 

 

You keep saying that the Buffalo Bills offensive players are historically bad and while I agree they are not all that good. Historically bad, no!

 

I think it's the current Buffalo Bills coaching offensive coaching staff that's historically bad. 

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

All good points, save #3 in which you have an OC laying the entire offense on a rookie QB and then calling for mid to deep passes when he doesn't know how to set protections or read a defense much less have the time to throw those mid to deep passes. He did it to Peterman too. This is simply the wrong way to do things.

 

Daboll isn't setting up an offense to help a rookie evolve, develop, learn. He ran his offense like he had an experienced veteran back behind center and the only time his game planning worked is when the team had the lead. Funny how the Bills could pound the ball so effectively against two pretty good defenses in the Titans, Vikings when they had a lead.

 

Plus, all the penalties over the season 60 for 479 yards and most are on the offense, holding, false start, players not lining up correctly. This is simply a poorly coached offense. 

 

 

I watched the raiders at SF game last night and saw a kid by the name of Nick Mullens who had been on the Niners practice squad last year, and this year.  He was pulled off that practice squad with only one week to prepare...he looked like Joe Montana ripping the Raiders a new one over and over. That's coaching! Both the Raiders and 49ers were 1-7 teams and this looked like what the 1-5 Colts did to the Bills, only they had Andrew Luck. 

 

You keep saying that the Buffalo Bills offensive players are historically bad and while I agree they are not all that good. Historically bad, no!

 

I think it's the current Buffalo Bills coaching offensive coaching staff that's historically bad. 

 

 

So I think you have more of a point on how the offense is being COACHED. I have been at pains to distinguish coaching from scheme. The two are separate. I put scheme on the coordinator. To a certain extent I think you can put QB play on the OC as well.... but the majority of the coaching - I put that on the position coaches, not the coordinators. A lot of those pre-snap penalties they are poor coaching not poor scheme. I was anti-Castillo before he got here, I knew he was bad. I never understood the appointment of a career WR coach to coach our Quarterbacks either - that seemed like a strange decision from the off. I am not sure about Rob Boras the tight ends coach either but when you are coaching a man with one knee and two scrubs in Croom and Thomas that is probably a tough gig.

 

Having said that I could rip the Oakland Raiders defense...... their defensive roster feels a lot like our offensive one.

 

And I still disagree on the talent.  It is historically bad - certainly in my 16 years watching this league. I can't remember watching a team where I looked at the offense and thought they have one passable lineman and a 30+ running back and basically nothing else. That is what I think when I watch the Bills.

 

 

[Nihilarian]

1 hour ago, billsfan1959 said:

While the game was close into the fourth quarter, Anderson was 12-22 for 136 yards (and 40 of those came on one pass). The rest of his yards came in garbage time after NE was up 25-6. 

The more important point was that an experienced veteran QB is finding the supposed bad receivers who are actually catching the ball and the line is blocking well enough to allow those throws. It's not like it's a constant jailbreak with Bills QBs running for their lives or getting sacked every play and this coming from a QB 4 weeks off the street. 

 

The debate here is it the players? the coaching? I say it's both. The current OC who has never had an offense above the 23rd worst in 5 seasons with 4 different teams...and is about right on par with coaching the worst offense in the league for the 2018 Buffalo Bills.

 

I think McD will very soon (bye week) have an important decision to make because I don't see these owners tolerating a 2-14 season as they didn't tolerate Rex Ryan's 7-8 season.

[Gugny]

1 hour ago, Boca BIlls said:

Anyone who thinks Daboll is the problem is just plain stupid.

 

Excellent post.  I wish more people would back up their statements with facts, data, examples, stats, etc., like you did.  Kudos.

[Nihilarian]

14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

So I think you have more of a point on how the offense is being COACHED. I have been at pains to distinguish coaching from scheme. The two are separate. I put scheme on the coordinator. To a certain extent I think you can put QB play on the OC as well.... but the majority of the coaching - I put that on the position coaches, not the coordinators. A lot of those pre-snap penalties they are poor coaching not poor scheme. I was anti-Castillo before he got here, I knew he was bad. I never understood the appointment of a career WR coach to coach our Quarterbacks either - that seemed like a strange decision from the off. I am not sure about Rob Boras the tight ends coach either but when you are coaching a man with one knee and two scrubs in Croom and Thomas that is probably a tough gig.

 

Having said that I could rip the Oakland Raiders defense...... their defensive roster feels a lot like our offensive one.

 

And I still disagree on the talent.  It is historically bad - certainly in my 16 years watching this league. I can't remember watching a team where I looked at the offense and thought they have one passable lineman and a 30+ running back and basically nothing else. That is what I think when I watch the Bills.

 

 

I see your points and it looks like we will have to agree to disagree. While you think the talent is historically bad. I think it's the historically bad coaching making the bad talent look even worse then it actually is. 

 

I really do agree with you on Castillo as he really stinks! Also, why on earth hire a man who was a WR coach and has never coached QBs to be a coach for a rookie QB you spent a #7 overall pick on? 

 

I look at it this way. Changes could be made soon, or not. And if not, perhaps everyone goes at the end of the year. 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Nihilarian said:

 

I look at it this way. Changes could be made soon, or not. And if not, perhaps everyone goes at the end of the year. 

 

Personally I'd be surprised if Daboll was fired (but then other than his advocating for Peterman I didn't think Rick Dennison's performance was fireable either). I just think the players on this offense suck. At least Dennison had half a good offensive line and an NFL calibre QB. We don't even have that now. I suspect Daboll remains and is given more say over the rest of the offensive staff and they make a number of position coach changes (though sadly I fear Castillo is safe - he was McDermott's very first hire).

[BuffaloHokie13]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Personally I'd be surprised if Daboll was fired (but then other than his advocating for Peterman I didn't think Rick Dennison's performance was fireable either). I just think the players on this offense suck. At least Dennison had half a good offensive line and an NFL calibre QB. We don't even have that now. I suspect Daboll remains and is given more say over the rest of the offensive staff and they make a number of position coach changes (though sadly I fear Castillo is safe - he was McDermott's very first hire).

Agree with this, though I don't think Castillo is safe, per se. If Daboll wants a different OL coach I think McD finds another position for Castillo. Offensive QC coach or something, maybe.

[26TrapDraw]

I read that article about Daboll's offense and watched some stuff that's out there. I am coming around on the things he is trying to do and understand that the personnel just flat out sux and can't execute it. I've seen him simplify for Josh and finally get shady going and to an extent Zay. The cupboard really is bare in terms of the other " skill positions and I use that term lightly. KB and his rounded lazy routes . Not sure he knows what a 90 degree angle is. Lately Clay has disappeared as well. I'd like to see them bang up inside with Ivory more and feature both Shady and Ivory in the backfield as well as Croom who I believe can be a reliable threat on a seam route or drag from PA. Whatever he does has to be quick hitting because it seems like at least 1 lineman is a turnstyle almost every play. Zay Jones on quick slants from the slot works as that seems to be where Jones can create the most separation  and is most effective. I don't claim to be a football expert but that's what these eyeballs see and overall with the cards he has been dealt Daboll is not doing a bad job. They have to execute.

Edited November 2, 2018 by BeefCurtns

[BillsFan130]

4 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

I should also have mentioned that my frustration is mostly with up until Josh Allen got hurt.  The disparity was ridiculous and to do that with a rookie QB on this team was just stupid.

 

The NE game plan is a whole 'nother animal.  Those high school trick plays were horrible.  McCoy ended up with 13 yards on 12 carries.  Yeah, Daboll, the direct snaps were cute, but ineffective.

 

I get that this team doesn't have a lot of talent.  But I refuse to agree that they are THAT bad.  I'm a Benjamin critic as much as the next guy, but he is a decent WR.  A #1?  No.  But decent.  So is Zay Jones.  McCoy.  Ivory.  The line has given ALL of the starting QBs time (at times) to pass the ball.  The run game HAS been successful when they committed to it.

 

This is why I place the blame squarely on Daboll.

Good post.

 

Also for the people who say it is all about talent and nothing to do with scheming?

 

They should have watched the SF game last night. Shanahan kept Oakland on its toes all evening with a 3RD string QB!

 

I don't think anyone is saying Daboll's offence should score 24 plus points a game with this team, but for gods sake.. To average 10 points per game in 2018 and to not score a TD in over 2 games is absolutely ridiculous. 

[Jrb1979]

Following the 49ers getting significant offensive production out of CJ Beathard, and now Nick Mullens, in a season where their receiving corp is mediocre at best and they lost their stating RB at the beginning of the year, without a dominant Oline, can we stop pretending it is so hard to have a capable offense in the NFL? The 49ers aren't even doing anything special on offense this year. They're just competent. 

Edited November 2, 2018 by Jrb1979

[Nihilarian]

11 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

But that's not what Daboll has done. If he really had sucked, he wouldn't have been hired at Alabama. Or New England. He just wouldn't have.

 

Offensive success is based on many many different factors. One of them is the OC and the play-calling. Another is the quality of the offensive roster and the QB in particular. Bad rosters can hamstring good OCs. And vice-versa.

 

But Belichick and Saban are two of the canniest strategists in football. And both hired Daboll. Open your mind to the possibility that a lot of the offensive failure of those teams may have been due to the fact that he was working with truly awful QBs and rosters. Including the one here. If Wood and Incognito had been here, maybe we could have seen a bit better offense. But they're gone and the line is having problems, as is the QBs and the WRs. It isn't hard for teams to figure out where they should place their resources to stop the Bills when the one good position group on the offense is the RBs.

 

If Daboll isn't here next season, we'll know McDermott agrees with you. That could happen, easily. But it might not. We'll have to see.

Saban worked for Belichick when he was the HC in Cleveland and they are very close friends. Stating that, Belichick looks to be very loyal to the coaches he knows so it wouldn't surprise me to find out that old Bill put in a good word for his assistant coach (Def, WR, TE in NE) to give him another chance at being an OC. Perhaps because he knows that Josh McDaniel's might not stay in NE forever.  

 

What is surprising to me is why McD would hire an assistant coach from the Patriots. As, like I said that loyalty to NE runs deep and the only assistant coach I would hire is one that literally hates the Patriots... Like I do. Chuck Pagano recently stated he wants back in the NFL to beat the hated Patriots!  Now that's my kind of coach and there has to be lots more out there! I personally wouldn't hire Pagano nor Rex Ryan either. Just saying that there are lots of coaches out there that hate the Patriots as much as I do and those are the coaches along with great talent I'd look to hire. 

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/10/27/chuck-pagano-hopes-to-coach-next-year-beat-the-hated-patriots/

 

 

[John from Riverside]

13 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

1. It was late in the 4th and we were down by more than a touchdown. After James White scored we ran 22 legal offensive plays. 21 pass plays and one run. Before that 19 pass v 18 rush. I'd call that pretty balanced.

 

2. Ah the hot hand. Cos change of pace backs never end up with better ypc than feature backs? Maybe every OC should go hot hand?

 

3. There really have not been many of these since the Green Bay game. Two that he did dial up vs New England worked.... except for Clay can't separate and on the second one Anderson fumbled the snap. Players. Not coaching.

 

4. Actually against New England they were trying to get Shady to the edge not run him behind the left guard. He kept getting swallowed in the backfield because.... NEWSFLASH our offensive line sucks. 

 

I am not trying to argue Daboll is good, his resume as an OC is not encouraging. But it is so hard to judge him when the talent is historically bad and the execution is brutal. Week after week after week. Eventually when patterns repeat you have say "maybe these guys just can't play". And they can't. That is the point. 

I actually like the play calling.   I wished Debol had the horses for it to work.

 

I know this....constant turnover does NOT equal success.

[FistingBot]

19 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I'm glad that you want that. I wish it for you if it's your wish.

 

But that's not what Daboll has done. If he really had sucked, he wouldn't have been hired at Alabama. Or New England. He just wouldn't have.

 

Offensive success is based on many many different factors. One of them is the OC and the play-calling. Another is the quality of the offensive roster and the QB in particular. Bad rosters can hamstring good OCs. And vice-versa.

 

But Belichick and Saban are two of the canniest strategists in football. And both hired Daboll. Open your mind to the possibility that a lot of the offensive failure of those teams may have been due to the fact that he was working with truly awful QBs and rosters. Including the one here. If Wood and Incognito had been here, maybe we could have seen a bit better offense. But they're gone and the line is having problems, as is the QBs and the WRs. It isn't hard for teams to figure out where they should place their resources to stop the Bills when the one good position group on the offense is the RBs.

 

If Daboll isn't here next season, we'll know McDermott agrees with you. That could happen, easily. But it might not. We'll have to see.

 

To point out the obvious, Alabama has the best talent in the country and pretty much anyone they plug in as offensive coordinator puts up yards and points. They're on their seventh or eighth offensive coordinator under Saban and keep on rolling (pun intended). Honestly, Daboll likely would have been fired at Alabama given the Iron Bowl debacle last year plus getting shut out in the first half of the championship game had Tua Tagovailoa not bailed out the Tide in the second half against Georgia. IMHO, if Belichick thought Daboll was such a brilliant offensive mind he wouldn't have left him at tight end coach over the years. He could have hired him as his own offensive coordinator when the Pats had vacancies at that spot (e.g., when Josh McDaniels left for Denver).

 

My larger point is rather than saying Daboll should be good because he came from the Pats or Alabama or <insert reason here>, there is 4.5 years of evidence against the guy... not a single shred of actual evidence that Daboll can run a successful offense at the NFL level. Stops in 4 different places with the same terrible results. Everyone defending the guy is just guessing that he might be good. There is no actual data to support that conjecture. If we hired a guy who had run a top-10 offense somewhere else, we could say that we know he can get the job done because we've seen it elsewhere. In this case we have a guy who has failed at every NFL stop and what I'm seeing is evidence that he is a contributor to that failure and not just an innocent victim of circumstances. Yes, our talent, especially at the QB position, is sub-par. But, you don't have an unlimited time to get it right in the NFL. Take what talent you have (e.g., a 10,000 yard running back) and make it happen or be replaced.