Preseason Refresher

[quinnearlysghost88]

I think the Vikings game really screwed with fans' expectations. This was going to be a rebuilding year and now fans want Beane and McDermott gone. I think it's healthy to re-visit some prognostication from August. Everyone saw this coming except fans with blinders on. The Ringer had us pegged three months ago. We should be more realistic about what we expect this year and how next year is the time for put up or shut up.

 

32. Buffalo Bills

2017 Record: 9-7
2017 Football Outsiders’ DVOA: 26th on offense; 15th on defense

Best-Case Scenario: Let the Josh Allen era commence. The Bills’ brain trust made painfully clear last season that it didn’t see Tyrod Taylor as the franchise’s future at quarterback. Now, that future comes in the form of Allen, the Wyoming star (?) who completed 56.2 percent of his passes and went 16-11 over the past two seasons in the Mountain West. Buffalo had to give up a healthy sum of draft capital to get him, sending Tampa Bay two second-round picks to move up to no. 7 overall and take the big-armed, baby-faced QB who fans hope can develop into the long-awaited answer in the team’s post–Jim Kelly era.

 

Still, the best conceivable version of Allen won’t be enough to make Buffalo league average on offense. The Bills’ offensive infrastructure has a cracked foundation, crumbling walls, and a snake infestation. That means any chance of this team rising above the dregs of the NFL rests squarely on head coach Sean McDermott’s defense.

 

Worst-Case Scenario: About that snake-ridden shambles of an offense. The Bills may have bet big on Allen, but they’ve done him zero favors with the pieces they’ve placed around him. Buffalo’s receiving corps is devoid of high-end talent. Just a few years after trotting out Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin, and Chris Hogan, new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has Kelvin Benjamin, Zay Jones, and Andre Holmes at his disposal. That is a stunningly unremarkable collection of receivers, incapable of both creating separation and reliably catching footballs—two skills that tend to be fairly important.

If the pass-catching arsenal were the only problem on this offense, the Bills might be fine. We’ve seen teams overcome that with quality offensive line play and a solid running game. This year’s Bills just won’t be one of them. Buffalo still has LeSean McCoy, who has long manufactured offense in difficult circumstances, but he’s on the eve of his age-30 season and is coming off a campaign in which he averaged 4.0 yards per carry. Plus, this offseason, Buffalo swapped out two of its most effective interior linemen (center Eric Wood and guard Richie Incognito) for a guy who spent the past few seasons torpedoing the Bengals offense (new center Russell Bodine) and a lifetime replacement-level guard (Vlad Ducasse). The Bills also traded former starting left tackle Cordy Glenn to Cincinnati as part of its plan to load up for a QB. The result is a line without a single above-average starter.

 

The problems with the offense would be less troubling if the Bills defense had a chance to carry them, but that simply isn’t realistic. Gone are the days when Buffalo’s front four terrorized quarterbacks. The Bills’ two main acquisitions up front were former Carolina defensive tackle Star Lotulelei, who commanded $18.5 million guaranteed, and former Washington second fiddle Trent Murphy. As solid as both players are, neither raises the profile of this group. First-round 2018 draft pick Tremaine Edmunds is an athletic buzzsaw who could give the Bills a new middle-of-the-field dynamic, but the rest of the front seven is uninspiring.

Stat of Note: 44 percent. On first-and-long (where long represents 8 to 10 yards), the Bills’ offense handed the ball to McCoy on 121 of 316 snaps last season. It registered a success rate of 44 percent on those plays. Buffalo’s 2017 attack finished dead last in Warren Sharp’s Early Down Success Rate (EDSR), a stat that measures the percentage of a team’s first downs that come before reaching third down. EDSR is a measure of overall offensive efficiency, and the Bills’ woes in that area mirror their struggles to dictate the tone.

 

Sports Illustrated: 
1. This could be the worst offense in the league. With all due respect to LeSean McCoy’s talents, he’s not going to be able to single-handedly carry this group. Plus, he’s going to hit the downslope of his career at some point, and he turned 30 in July. No matter if it’s AJ McCarron or Josh Allen under center, the Bills will likely have a bottom-third quarterback. There’s also a chance that Nathan Peterman, he of the five-interception debut start, gets some time. Charles Clay, Kelvin Benjamin and Corey Coleman are all fine players, but they’re complementary pieces. Even with McCoy around, there’s no one to stir the drink in Buffalo’s offense, and that will be painfully obvious all year.

Edited October 31, 2018 by quinnearlysghost88