BIlls want Shelton & a pick or swap 2nds

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Hmmmm, interesting.  After film review, the Bills don't think that a Henry for Shelton swap is an equal trade.  What they're basically asking for with the swap of 2nd's is Henry for Shelton plus a pick equal to the first/second pick of the 4th round.  Doesn't sound like the Bills think all that highly of Shelton after all.

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I don't thnk that trade valuehas a one-to-one correlation with a player's quality as a player at all. Its a business deal and obviously how good a player is judged is at the base of any deal, but supply and demand override this basio assessment. Thus, evem though a worse player may be traded for a better player by most reasonable objective judgments, the market is subjective with other factors involving selling the product which go beyond on field play influencing supply and demand. Further, the situation of supply in the marketplace and demand on a team impacts the ultimate trade in a way which makes assessment of player skill not a straightforward thing to do.

 

What this odd statement means in Travis/Shelton case as best as I can tell:

 

1. The biggest drag on this trade value is that the market is pretty full of quality RBs right now as several good/great FAs are in play (even though Seattle tagged Alexander they will happily trade him) and at least 3 1st round RBs.

 

2. However, this drag is balanced by Henry having proved he can be productive in the NFL at RB (he gained the yards 2 years in a row, he made the Pro Bowl, he caught over 40 passes when well used as a receiver in 1 season. he had a fumble problem his second year but his fumble stats went way down his thrid year, TSW rants about blitz pick-up are simply overblown opinion rather than substanstiated with consistent objective data) and most of all bu him being under contract for next year at a cap hit well below the $85 million/51 players level. As king as he passes the new teams (if any) physical he is good to go.

 

 

3. The 4 to 5 teams that have expressed interest in Henry have multiple needs on their team which may make them look elsewhere than an RB in the first, leaving acquisition of TH as a good thing to do. By acquiring TH the trade partner can market the heck out of him to their customer putting the best and a great face in acquiring a former pro Bowl RB with a reasonable cap hit. Particularly in the case of Miami, they not only need an RB in the worst way since the departure of Wickey and the general failure of his back-ups, but they more than most other teams would love a former Pro Bowl RB as the marketing tonic to help them wash the bad Wickey experience off the team.

 

4. Demand for LTs is actually pretty low. it was my hope that the Bills could actually potentially afford to get JJ back at a cheap price because there are really only 4 or so teams with both the cap room and the LT need to even bid forJJ. The plush LT contracts of the past like ones to Petitgout and Clifton have actually dried up the demand for LTs, but it turned out that the 9ers were willing to overpay for JJ. This removes yet another team from the Shelton market so it does not surprise me that the Bills are the only potential trade partner for his services.

 

The fact that the deal was dubbed dead and now it appears from Travis quoes and Clayton's reporting that the deal died because TD left the showroom, but said he might comeback, was a great sign and we will see what happens.

 

By my count the Bills have 9 or 10 other options than Shelton at LT (most bad options but a couple workable) and armed with this ability to walk away, i think that the fact this deal has taken awhilesays more about the marketplace than it does about the Bills assessment of Shelton as a player.

[Rubes]

Hmmmm, interesting.  After film review, the Bills don't think that a Henry for Shelton swap is an equal trade.  What they're basically asking for with the swap of 2nd's is Henry for Shelton plus a pick equal to the first/second pick of the 4th round.  Doesn't sound like the Bills think all that highly of Shelton after all.

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I don't know that this means the Bills don't think highly of Shelton, just that they don't think as highly of Shelton as they do Henry.

 

Henry has proven his worth, as FFS says above, by rushing for big yardage 2 straight years and making the Pro Bowl. Shelton has proven he can probably be a good OL in this league, but he has not yet proven he is top-shelf, or Pro-Bowl quality.

 

It will be interesting to see if TD holds out for more to the end or just gets the deal done.

[San-O]

CLAYTON

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Amazing, this whole TD being shrewd thing is great. He is trying to milk

a little more for a backup-backup trade, and paying MW $9 + mill./year.

 

Penny wise and pound foolish.

[ch19079]

CLAYTON

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thats henrys fair market value. we SHOULD get eather a 1st day draft pick, or swap 2nd rounders.

 

we should not settle for less than that.

 

but i heard it was henrys demand for a 7 mil signing bonus that was holding it up.

 

i bet we will get a 3rd rounder.

[scribo]

Amazing, this whole TD being shrewd thing is great.  He is trying to milk

a little more for a backup-backup trade, and paying MW $9 + mill./year.

 

Penny wise and pound foolish.

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I don't think moving up 11 spots in the second round is a "a little more." I could very well mean getting Baas.

[San-O]

I don't think moving up 11 spots in the second round is a "a little more." I could very well mean getting Baas.

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IF we made the deal and IF we moved up and IF we get Bass, then it would

be a nice move.

 

The longer this thing goes on, the worse it seems to get. There has been

very little interest in TH to date and this may be hurting his value further.

 

I think TD is taking a gamble.

[OGTEleven]

The part of this article I find the funniest is that Clayton's "scoop" is basically extrapolation on Henry's public comments. He offers nothing in the way of real new information.

 

Should I be surprised?

[John from Riverside]

Mark my words:

Draft day deal-shelton for henry, swapping our 2nd rd picks

We draft Baas in the 2nd

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The real question would be woud the bills even draft Baas at that point with such a deep draft.....

 

They might go Tight End....or even corner

[MartyBall4Buffalo]

The real question would be woud the bills even draft Baas at that point with such a deep draft.....

 

They might go Tight End....or even corner

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If we did swap 2nd's with the cards and say david baas and alex smith from stanford are both on the board. I'd go with alex smith. We can always get a good guard in the 3rd rd. Alex Smith is gonna end up being a damn good te for whatever team is lucky enough to get him.

[FTW_BillsFan]

I don't think moving up 11 spots in the second round is a "a little more." I could very well mean getting Baas.

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Don't forget Nugent!!! TD put up a major smokescreen w/ the Lindell comments earlier this week.

[FTW_BillsFan]

I personally don't see why AZ doesn't just throw in the swapping of 2nd round picks. They still get a 2nd round pick for god sake. It's not like we are swapping our 3rd for their 2nd or anything.

 

It's a 11 pick swap. If they can't do that to get TH, then let him ride the pine next year for us.

[Simon]

Mark my words:

Draft day deal-shelton for henry, swapping our 2nd rd picks

We draft Baas in the 2nd

 

That'd be pretty funny if TD solidly rebuilt the left side of the OLine in a span of about 30 seconds.

[Frez]

Mark my words:

Draft day deal-shelton for henry, swapping our 2nd rd picks

We draft Baas in the 2nd

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How can that not be perfect for both teams?

[Fixxxer]

There is no such thing as a RB controversy. He either plays well when he is handed the rock or he doesn't - same goes for Willis. WIllis thrives on competition. Travis???...not so much.

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All his life Henry was the underdog, in school and mostly in College. He was always told he wasn't good enough and always came up on top. When he finally thought, after a Pro Bowl year and playing hurt, that he found his place in the Football world, TD drafted McGahee. His first offseason as a pro the guy worked very hard and came to his sophomore year in great condition, same thing with his second offseason.

 

You can say the guy isn't smart or he fumbles too much but you can't say the guy doesn't like or thrive on competition. Last year the guy had a bad year, no doubt about it, but the reason is, IMO, he wasn't able to manage the whole situation mentally.

 

I don't like his reactions and how he approached this situation but I understand why he's doing it.

[VABills]

That'd be pretty funny if TD solidly rebuilt the left side of the OLine in a span of about 30 seconds. 

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Baas is a center. Who plays LG?

[Astrobot]

Scenario 1:

 

Bills and Arizona trade TH for Shelton and second round swap.

Bills draft at #44.

Most mocks have very few OL at #44, so TD trades down, picking up a 4th Rounder to pick later in RD#2.

 

RD#2 - Alex Smith, TE, Stanford

RD#3 - 87.Jason Brown, C, North Carolina

RD#4 - Darren Sproles, RB Kansas

RD#4 - Chris Kemoeatu, G, Utah

RD#5 - Antohny Bryant, DT, Alabama

[Tcali]

Am I the only one who believes Shelton will be a Bill soon, after reading everything the last couple of days ? I don't assume facts but reading between the lines, one can surmise :

 

1. The Bills currently are the only bidder for Shelton. Knowing this, TD is playing hardball.

2. Direct face to face talks happened the last couple of days at the NFL Hawaii meetings. The interest is there.

3. Bills don't seem to be in any hurry to sign a Guard, with the limited cap room. Henry counts roughly 1.25 Mil towards the Cap. Shelton would count 3 Mil. Bills are roughly 2 Mil, maybe more, under. Sheltons' salary,once here, would probably leave us with a Mil or less in cap space. 

4. Bills could draft a Guard in Round 2 or 3, a deep position in the 2005 Draft.

 

Let's see if this plays out.

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AND--whats wrong with having a 1-2 punch at running back???TH has to play--he has no choice.he doesnt have a lot of $$$--and would not walk away from 1.2 million.-TD has the upper hand here.

[Albany,n.y.]

I personally don't see why AZ doesn't just throw in the swapping of 2nd round picks.  They still get a 2nd round pick for god sake.  It's not like we are swapping our 3rd for their 2nd or anything.

 

It's a 11 pick swap.  If they can't do that to get TH, then let him ride the pine next year for us.

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Why don't we throw in a 5 or 6 to switch positions in the 2nd. Agree with it or not, SoCalSurf's post does show TD does a lot more with 2nds than 5ths or 6ths, so it's not like we're giving up a lot-maybe the next Sobieski or Sape. If it means we get a G who can start on opening day it's clearly worth it. I'd even give up my Nugent dream for a starting G.

[FTW_BillsFan]

Why don't we throw in a 5 or 6 to switch positions in the 2nd.  Agree with it or not, SoCalSurf's post does show TD does a lot more with 2nds than 5ths or 6ths, so it's not like we're giving up a lot-maybe the next Sobieski or Sape.  If it means we get a G who can start on opening day it's clearly worth it.  I'd even give up my Nugent dream for a starting G.

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I'm not sure about throwing in another pick unless it is a 6th or 7th. TD thinks TH is more valuable than Shelton and I have to agree with him, but I don't know what is the difference in value between the 44th and ?? pick...

 

Does anyone have the value of draft picks breakdown? I know I've seen it on here before.

[The Jokeman]

Scenario 1:

 

Bills and Arizona trade TH for Shelton and second round swap.

Bills draft at #44.

Most mocks have very few OL at #44, so TD trades down, picking up a 4th Rounder to pick later in RD#2.

 

RD#2 - Alex Smith, TE, Stanford

RD#3 - 87.Jason Brown, C, North Carolina

RD#4 - Darren Sproles, RB Kansas

RD#4 - Chris Kemoeatu, G, Utah

RD#5 - Antohny Bryant, DT, Alabama

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I don't see Kemoeatu falling to the 4th Round, he's argueably the 3rd best OG behind Baas and Brown, I suspect he'd be taken in the mid 3rd. Though I'm not a fan because of his attitude problems and his size. As if reports of him playing at 344# are true e could be another Bennie Anderson. Personally if we're waiting until the 4th to take an OG I think Dan Buenning is the perfect choice.