How does a QB deficient team pass on Mahomes/Watson

[Boatdrinks]

8 minutes ago, Ol Dirty B said:

 

That's fair. I see it the same way. I do think it is more convenient for the Pegulas to have that story come out.

Maybe. We will probably never know. Whaley had shown a propensity for the big splash offensive player in the first round, but somehow I always feared the Bills would take a first round CB while he was in charge. I guess I could see it going either way, but Whaley seems an easy scapegoat post dismissal. 

Edited October 27, 2018 by Boatdrinks

[2003Contenders]

2 hours ago, Real McCoy said:

Your right this is kind of hindsight to a degree, but many, many posters from this forum alone were calling out to draft Mahomes, Trub or Watson as we needed a QB then and the talent was in our pocket at number 10. The ones that were against it and supporting the decision were saying "next years* QB class is better which is fine as it's still to be determined. Currently right now the 2017 draft class is better and we passed. There is zero we can do know but think what could have been which sucks but is reality at this point. 

 

Time will tell

 

But so far

 

2017

Mitch Trubisky

Deshaun Watson

Patrick Mahomes

C.J Beathard

 

draft class is  much greater than 

 

2018

Baker Mayfield

Sam Darnold

Josh Allen

Josh Rosen

 

100% false

 

As you said, time will tell. But at this time last year the 2017 class did not look all that great. Trubisky struggled mightily as a rookie. Watson looked good in a few games -- but was out for the season after that. Mahomes did not see the field until the meaningless Week 17 game. The 49ers thought so much of Beathard that they traded their high 2nd round pick for Jimmy G.

 

Meanwhile, in 2018, Mayfield looks to be the real deal. Darnold has had his up's and down's but shows promise. Allen and Rosen are both in terrible situations, but both have shown glimpses; certainly, neither looks any worse than Trubisky looked last season.

 

Like you said, time will tell.

[Ol Dirty B]

14 hours ago, mannc said:

We are about to trot out an injured Derek Anderson for Monday Night game against New England, and Nate Peterman is the backup.  That might be as bad as any tandem in NFL history.

 

You can only laugh. That's what I do. Eventually they'll have it figured out at that position. 

 

I'll see your Derek Anderson and Nate peterman with Thad Lewis and Jeff tuel. Anderson and Peterman might actually be worse.

 

I miss Thad. He wasn't good, but that game he played in New Orleans where he took the shot to the ribs. He gave it everything.

 

Here I am reminiscing as a Bills fan about the days of Thad Lewis in a game he lost. Like I said, you can only laugh at this stuff.

Edited October 28, 2018 by Ol Dirty B

[LSHMEAB]

5 minutes ago, mannc said:

We are about to trot out an injured Derek Anderson for a Monday Night game against New England, and Nate Peterman is the backup.  That might be as bad as any tandem in NFL history.

There is absolutely no basis for this view.  Watson looks outstanding behind an O-line that’s worse than ours.

I was TRYING my go*damndest to give JA the benefit of the doubt on something!

 

I think Mahomes is well ahead of Watson, but sadly, you are correct. 

 

My honest assessment is that nothing is going to happen with this franchise until we can get the Allen experiment over with, but I'm hoping against logic.

[Ol Dirty B]

1 minute ago, Boatdrinks said:

Maybe. We will probably never know. Whaley had shown a propensity for the big splash offensive player in the first round, but somehow I always feared the Bills would take a first round CB while he was in charge. I guess I could see it going either way, but Whaley seems an easy scapegoat post dismissal. 

 

Agree with a lot of this post. I also would think that the guy who talks about being in QB purgatory, would probably take a shot on one at 10? It's all speculation but that narrative never made sense to me. If you're the owners and you want Mahomes, then you get Mahomes. Whaley and staff knew they were being fired after the draft. The leaks were coming for weeks prior. 

 

Tre is great, but I don't see that as a pick Whaley makes given his past. 

[CookieG]

1 hour ago, longtimebillsfan said:

This brings back painful memories of the late 60's  when the Bills went 1-13 and wound up selecting OJ as the #1 pick in the draft.  I remembering watching the last game of the year.   It was against the equally bad Dolphins.   The Bills almost won the game and almost lost the #1 pick to the fish.  Can you imagine if OJ had played most of his career in Miami? 

I just hope this isn't my generational Lamonica moment.

 

As far as people talking about hindsight, meh. I just know that after the 1st round was over, when my son called to pick him up all he said was "so how pissed off are you"?  IT was the LSU bowl game in his soph. year that sold me. More importantly, the teams that wanted him aren't seeing it as hindsight. I didn't realize Arians wanted him. But NO wanted him as successor to Brees. That's why the Chiefs traded up for him. Teams that knew QBs wanted him.

 

I live in Chiefs country (which is brutal right now), and watching the post draft PC's, I became certain that we made a bad decision. 

The Chiefs weren't even looking for a QB when their draft process began. It started with a regional scout, who kept bugging higher ups to watch tape of him. it kept moving up to eventually Dorsey and Reid. By the end of the evals, they were sold on him, to a man. The common buzz word with him was "special". They weren't going to draft another QB that year, much less trade up for one.  Watching those, I was convinced, thinking "what did we just do here?"

 

Chiefs country is brutal right now. Its not fun to hear people say, "hey! Thanks for Mahomes!"  Damn, our  mailman was chiding me last Sat.

 

And its why I'm pulling for Allen now more than ever. If it ends up being a situation where they got Marino and we got Kelly, I won't complain. But if they got Marino and we got Todd Blackledge, its not going to be easy.  I don't want it to be my Lamonica moment.

 

 

 

 

 

[mannc]

38 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I was TRYING my go*damndest to give JA the benefit of the doubt on something!

 

I think Mahomes is well ahead of Watson, but sadly, you are correct. 

 

My honest assessment is that nothing is going to happen with this franchise until we can get the Allen experiment over with, but I'm hoping against logic.

I was a fan of the Allen pick, and I still hold out hope for him, but the early returns don’t look great; this franchise is just cursed.

[BillsFan4]

The Bills were not the only QB needy team to pass on Mahomes and Watson... 

 

Browns

49ers

Bears

Jets

Jaguars

Bills 

 

 

2018 was widely viewed as a much better year for QBs. 

[mannc]

4 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

The Bills were not the only QB needy team to pass on Mahomes and Watson... 

 

Browns

49ers

Bears

Jets

Jaguars

Bills 

 

 

2018 was widely viewed as a much better year for QBs. 

You’re right.  It’s a bad look for all those teams, but at least the Bears did draft a QB and the 49ers had a plan to get Jimmy G.  

 

Remember, the Jags drafted a punter with pick before Russ Wilson was selected by the Seahawks.  They also passed on Big Ben for a bust of a WR.  They might be worse than the Bills at the QB game.

Edited October 27, 2018 by mannc

[BillsFan4]

7 minutes ago, mannc said:

You’re right.  It’s a bad look for all those teams, but at least the Bears did draft a QB and the 49ers had a plan to get Jimmy G.  

 

Remember, the Jags drafted a punter with pick before Russ Wilson was selected by the Seahawks.  They also passed on Big Ben for a bust of a WR.  They might be worse than the Bills at the QB game.

49ers didn’t know Jimmy G was available then. 

 

I believe their plan at that time was to hope for Cousins to hit free agency. It was known that was who Shanahan wanted. He even talked about it after they signed JG to that big contract. 

 

Agree with the rest, though. 

 

 

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

14 hours ago, Rc2catch said:

What are the odds Watson or Mahomes is successful here? Even with the players lost via trade and free agency.

Why is it a given they “missed” on these picks? 

Watson is a year and a half into his career and what 6-7 games for Mahomes? 

While im not sold on Allen as a franchise guy I just don’t see the fascination with other quarterbacks we could of drafted instead.

totally different systems and team situations. 

they are good just admit it to yourself i know it hurts. you'll be on the wrong side of history on this one. Can't use that excuse. We are a black hole for QB? so they can't be criticized for passing on a guy who has thrown 22TD in his first 8 games? You are objectively incorrect.

[John from Riverside]

3 hours ago, Elite Poster said:

 

Doesn't make it the right decision. You can't just keep defending boneheaded moves because of perceived reasons. This guy thought TWICE Peterman was the answer and he has shown a clear deficiency in the evaluation of a good QB. Whaley loved Watson. We would've had our guy already. Instead we have a project that is dead last in every QB category and somehow needs to make a rocket projection upwards next year with a piss poor situation. So go ahead do your thing, mention Goff, we all know how this goes. 

That hindsight thing

[Pirate Angel]

Mahomes is surrounded by one of the best supporting cast in the league , much more experienced offensive minded coach, and wasn't prematurely thrust into the starting lineup. What would he look like last year on this Bills offense? Ive watched some of Kansas citys games and thought he made some exceptional athletic plays with a nice touch pass here and there but many, of his passes his offensive weapons are wide open (like high school wide open) combined with a decent ground game and a solid oline the play calling is able to be more creative with play action, miss direction, rollouts. IM not completely sold that he's all that Yet. Could he make a talentless offense good or somewhat productive? Is he in time going to be able to have any player plugged in around him and make them better ala Brady and Rodgers ??

[mjt328]

Sean McDermott has never (and will never) answer this question, but I've always assumed he was not comfortable making the most important decision of his coaching career without his General Manager and scouting staff in place to help.  The quarterback his regime ultimately drafted was going to determine the success or failure of his team for the next 3-4 years, and whether he would still have a job after that amount of time.

 

Terry Pegula has explained that he didn't want to let Doug Whaley and his staff go before the draft, because he felt they were losing valuable time/information compiled on college prospects over the previous 9 months.  And a new staff would basically have only 3 months to make that up. 

 

It was certainly an odd decision at the time.  NFL teams always fire/hire GMs in January or February.  I recall that some thought Pegula was doing something groundbreaking, which if successful would be copied by other franchises.  But looking back with the advantage of hindsight, it was probably a big mistake.  Beane had been working with the Panthers the entire year prior, and had plenty of time to compile a draft board. 

 

Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes were not "slam-dunk" prospects coming out of college.  But most had them as solid 1st-Round prospects.  It's unclear whether Beane would have liked either.  But at this point, it's hard to imagine Josh Allen developing into the player that either of these two has already become. 

 

 

[Agent 91]

Was all apart of the process

[SoTier]

4 hours ago, Real McCoy said:

Agreed, will need a couple more years to evaluate.

However, there is no denying the 2017 class is/was much stronger than what was said non-stop that is was a poor QB class. 

 

This cannot be repeated too much.   All this hype about "great QB draft class" is just so much bull manure peddled by media mavens, draftniks, and QB agents.  No matter the hype or not, most QB classes produce only 1 genuine franchise QB, and only a few produce more than 1.  So far, in the 21st century, the only QB class that was hyped before the draft as "generational" that lived up to its billing was 2004.  2011 was supposed to be the best since 2004 with 4 first round picks -- Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder -- but only Newton and 2nd rounder Andy Dalton were any good.  The much hyped 2012 draft class -- first rounders Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, and Brandon Weeden -- would have only had 2 franchise QBs in Luck and Tannehill if not for the QBs taken in later rounds.  The 2 best QBs from 2012 were probably 3rd rounder Russell Wilson and 4th rounder Kirk Cousins.

 

More importantly, most of the best current NFL QBs came out of draft classes that weren't hyped as being "generational" like 2004 and 2018.  Tom Brady came out of the 2000 class that only produced 1 other even half way decent QB in Chad Pennington.  Drew Brees came from the 2001 class with the only first round being Michael Vick.  Carson Palmer came out of the 2003 class, and both Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers came out of the 2005 classes.  Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco came out of 2008.  Matthew Stafford came out of 2009.  Jared Goff and Carson Wentz came out of 2016.

 

If you're a team that needs a franchise QB and there's one sitting there to be taken at your turn, but you pass on him just because the "next draft is supposed to be a better QB class", you do that at your own peril.  I think McDermott screwed the pooch by passing on Mahomes or Watson.  That's not just because Mahomes and Watson look to be great QBs in the making (which is bad enough) but that the Bills sacrificed so much talent to get Allen, who is clearly a much weaker prospect than either of the other two, and probably will take longer to develop into a franchise QB if he can actually become one.  The reality is that the Bills could have had a bonafide young franchise QB AND a whole lot more talent (having used all that draft capital on other prospects) if McDermott had taken Mahomes or Watson.

Edited October 27, 2018 by SoTier

[vorpma]

16 hours ago, Rc2catch said:

What are the odds Watson or Mahomes is successful here? Even with the players lost via trade and free agency.

Why is it a given they “missed” on these picks? 

Watson is a year and a half into his career and what 6-7 games for Mahomes? 

While im not sold on Allen as a franchise guy I just don’t see the fascination with other quarterbacks we could of drafted instead.

totally different systems and team situations. 

Voice of Reason; this board needs it!

[Bill from NYC]

16 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Because they were about to lose their starting Pro Bowl to free agency.  So they traded down and got Tre WHite 

 

Because they HAD a starting QB......he was not a pro bowl guy regardless of making pro bowls.....but they did have a starting guy

 

Because the following draft was supposed to be a QB draft.....and when you connect the dots it looks like the plan was ALWAYS to take a QB that following year

 

?????

Do you think this makes any sense by any stretch of the imagination?

[RosenNOTchosen1]

6 hours ago, TigerJ said:

Hindsight is a wonderful thing.  In hindsight we can see that Mahomes and Watson are wonderfully talented QBs who are likely to have long and successful careers.  Coming out of college, Mahomes played in a very unconventional college offense, and there was doubt in many corners that his game would translate to the NFL.  He never lined up under center.  

Watson was a leader for his Clemson team, but was seen more as a running QB than an NFL QB.  His arm strength is somewhat lacking and he had an unconventional delivery.  I thought both of them were worth taking in the first round.  KC was wise in retrospect, but they also had far fewer holes on their team when they traded up with Buffalo to get him.  I'm not even sure Mahomes would have had the same success coming to Buffalo that he's had this year in KC.  In Buffalo there would have been pressure to start right away and he would not have had nearly the supporting cast he has in KC.  KC was able to give him a full year on the bench to learn a pretty complex offensive system.

Fans like this seem to be just looking for excuses to make themselves feel better. 

 

"Hindsight is a wonderful thing"

"Mahomes and Watson wouldn't be good in Buffalo anyway" blah blah blah.

 

I guess the Bills organization can literally do no wrong with some fans.

Edited October 27, 2018 by RosenNOTchosen1

[mannc]

2 minutes ago, RosenNOTchosen1 said:

Fans like this seem to be just looking for excuses to make themselves feel better. 

 

"Hindsight is a wonderful thing"

"Mahomes and Watson" wouldn't be good in Buffalo anyway blah blah blah.

 

I guess the Bills organization can literally do no wrong with some fans.

Exactly.  If hindsight can’t be used to evaluate personnel decisions, then how can anyone ever be held accountable?  Same with the “he would have sucked if we’d drafted him” argument.