Let's Play Out the Worst-Case Scenario for 2018 & 2019; It Isn't Disastrous

[Mr. WEO]

So it's money that will make it all better?  

 

McBeane might behave like lottery winners next offseason.  

[John from Riverside]

10 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

Your Point #3 is the only thing that really needs discussing.

 

When Allen doesn't make it around Lost Corner next year, McDermott will go at the end of the season.

 

When McDermott goes, Beane will go too.  He is the underling to McD, not the other way around.

 

Allen will not get beyond next year to show he can do it, and I don't think McBeane will get a second chance to draft another QB.

 

That's how this business works.  Organizations do not wait around forever for people to show they can do it.

 

As I keep saying around here, EJ got 13 games and no more.

 

 

 

 

I love how you talk about the Allen situation like it is a forgone conclusion

 

You dont know crap

If the offense next year makes the jump the defense is making THIS year....we will be fine.

 

I think Deboll should stick and they should give him the players he actually needs to run his offense.......

[SoTier]

8 hours ago, Baba Booey said:

Nobodys seat is warm, McDermott bought himself 3-4 years with the playoff birth last year. He and Beane will get the time to build this thing properly. Lets hope improvement comes soon.

 

LOL.  It comes down to how much embarrassment the Pegulas are willing to tolerate.  If the blowouts to other bottom feeder teams like Indy continue, McDermott won't last the season.

[Maine-iac]

I love it when people talk like draft picks and cap room equal future championships.  Tell me that last NE draft pick that came in and changed the team.  We need to start by getting the coaching right.  If you don't have a DC who can keep the score down and and OC who can take the talent he has and find the end zone once and a while you are  going to lose the majority of the time.  I'm somewhat confident that McDermott and Frazier can handle the defense but until we get an offensive coach who can put points on the board we are in trouble.  Talk about O-lines and QB's and talent always swirl around but the truth is a good coach can get at least marginal results even with sub par talent. 

[Midwest1981]

With the Bills' offense actively trying to turn back the clock to an era it STILL would've been demonstrably awful in, it is admittedly difficult to own much optimism for the future, especially the immediate future.  However, if there's any imaginable way (and maybe there's not) that we can field a semi-competent offense next year (i.e. something BEFORE this year) the projected 2019 schedule doesn't seem too daunting, right now, since it involves many QB's with uncertain QB situations.  Not as uncertain as ours but still:

 

 Home:

 

New England

New York Jets (How much offseason help with Jets equip Darnold with?)

Miami (Tannehill finally gone?  Gase too?)

Baltimore (Flacco's likely out; Jackson's likely in)

Cincinnati (Dalton's up and down... but he's almost always 'up' for us)

Philadelphia

Washington (Smith has been a poor man's version of his KC self)

Oakland (Carr traded?  They're also a mess, anyway)

 

Road:

 

New England

New York Jets

Miami

Pittsburgh

Cleveland

Dallas (Dak is only top 20-25)

New York Giants (likely a rookie QB)

Jacksonville (Bortles' cap hit makes him still likely in place as starter)

 

[HomeskillitMoorman]

I don't think you did play out the worst case scenario though.

 

The worst case scenario to me is we keep McBeane, they continue to fail at building an offense and either keep Daboll or go 0-3 at picking offensive coordinators, and spend a big chunk of cap space on players that aren't very good. 

 

I wouldn't keep McDermott. Through 2 different offensive coordinators, we've seen his brand of offense. And it's horrific. I know people love to deflect that from him but he's the head coach, the OC's are an extension of him. Keeping him past this season could set this organization back for years. 

 

I don't necessarily mind having a "defensive minded" head coach, but they have to be able to have some kind of handle on the offense and be able to hire the right fits at OC. He's been disgustingly bad at both. 

Edited November 7, 2018 by HomeskillitMoorman

[iinii]

On 10/26/2018 at 3:01 AM, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You keep saying, and so do others, that Daboll has a putrid record as an OC. And it just isn't that simple.

 

What people think of you as an OC is dependent on a lot of things, including how good (or in Daboll's case, astoundingly bad) your QBs and offensive rosters are. 

 

Daboll's QBs have been Matt Cassel backed up by Brady Quinn in KC, Matt Moore backed up by Chad Henne in Miami. In Cleveland in his first of two years, 2009, his starter was Brady Quinn, backed up by our own Derek Anderson and the next year Delhomme was the original starter for Cleveland and he went 2-2, but the 35 year-old suffered ankle problems that hobbled him for the season and Daboll was left with Colt McCoy backed up by Seneca Wallace.

 

Remind me, has anyone had success with that pack of mugs since they got out from under Daboll? He's had crap rosters and people know that, and yet he's still widely respected by people like Saban and Belichick.

 

It simply isn't clear that he's been bad. He may well have gotten the best out the dross he coached.

And he may have had the good fortune of riding the coattails of Belichick and Saban. He was McDaniels’ assistant in Foxboro. I know there is a co next to assistant but we see who is still there and who isn’t. 

[John from Riverside]

I am hoping some how some way we can get a top 2 pick.......and make a move down to 5 and pick up more day 1/day 2 picks

 

Take LT Jonah at 5

take at LEAST 3 WR's in this draft and a TE

[Thurman#1]

9 hours ago, iinii said:

And he may have had the good fortune of riding the coattails of Belichick and Saban. He was McDaniels’ assistant in Foxboro. I know there is a co next to assistant but we see who is still there and who isn’t. 

 

 

Nah. You don't "ride the coattails of Belichick and Saban." They don't hire guys they don't respect and they don't tolerate hangers-on.

 

Belichick had him as a coach from 2002 - 2006 and then hired him again in 2013 and then promoted him. That doesn't happen with Belichick unless you're doing your job and doing it very well. And the Boston Herald reported that if McDaniels left, they would see if Daboll was available. And that if McDaniels had left last year Daboll would have got the OC job.

 

https://247sports.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/Bolt/Bill-Belichick-would-check-in-on-Alabamas-Brian-Daboll-if-Josh-McDaniels-leaves-the-New-England-Patriots-113078544/

[HomeskillitMoorman]

10 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Nah. You don't "ride the coattails of Belichick and Saban." They don't hire guys they don't respect and they don't tolerate hangers-on.

 

Belichick had him as a coach from 2002 - 2006 and then hired him again in 2013 and then promoted him. That doesn't happen with Belichick unless you're doing your job and doing it very well. And the Boston Herald reported that if McDaniels left, they would see if Daboll was available. And that if McDaniels had left last year Daboll would have got the OC job.

 

https://247sports.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/Bolt/Bill-Belichick-would-check-in-on-Alabamas-Brian-Daboll-if-Josh-McDaniels-leaves-the-New-England-Patriots-113078544/

 

There have been numerous coordinators for both Belichick and Saban who have failed elsewhere. Some guys are good assistant coaches simply because they're good at being an extension of the head coach if that's what's asked of them. 

 

I don't know if this offense is an extension of what McDermott wants or if it's all Daboll. The latter would concern me because I don't think that has the makings of a successful system, because a head coach should be involved with all aspects of the team. The first part would also concern me because this might just be the offense no matter who the OC is if this is what McDermott believes in. Both years here we've seen a bland, extremely conservative, uncreative brand of offense, and the constant has been McDermott. It's really not looking good either way if he/they are coming back, unfortunately. 

[BigDingus]

Unfortunately, I don't think this is even close to the worst place scenario.

Worst case would be McDermott doubling down on a failed QB feeling the pressure to win and pulling a Sammy Watkins-esque deal where they trade 2020's 1st round pick to move back up in the draft & grab a high profile player.

Then that doesn't pan out, the next regime takes over without a 1st round pick, and also starts the typical "throw out all the old regime's personnel and replace them with mine" shtick.

 

Then any talent we invested heavily in gets gutted, opening more holes & leads to us spinning our wheels spending picks & money replacing holes we made ourselves. And with all that cap space you mentioned, they could feel compelled to overpay for players just to get them here, leaving us with massive contracts that'll put us in cap hell for years.

On top of that, it won't be long for some of that other talent to hit FA, and the Bills will look like the NFL's farm league once again watching guys we drafted & developed leave for greener pastures once their deals are up. With poor management, coaching and lack of talent, we could go in circles for years to come leading to another decade or 2 of futility.

Now THAT is the worst case scenario

 

10 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I am hoping some how some way we can get a top 2 pick.......and make a move down to 5 and pick up more day 1/day 2 picks

 

Take LT Jonah at 5

take at LEAST 3 WR's in this draft and a TE

 

We should just alternate between WR's & O-linemen. The more O-linemen the merrier. Whether it's for depth or competition, let's get as many bodies in there and allow the cream to rise to the top.

 

And hopefully we don't just scout the undrafted FA WR's for camp bodies as usual. 

Edited November 8, 2018 by BigDingus

[Thurman#1]

48 minutes ago, HomeskillitMoorman said:

 

There have been numerous coordinators for both Belichick and Saban who have failed elsewhere. Some guys are good assistant coaches simply because they're good at being an extension of the head coach if that's what's asked of them. 

 

I don't know if this offense is an extension of what McDermott wants or if it's all Daboll. The latter would concern me because I don't think that has the makings of a successful system, because a head coach should be involved with all aspects of the team. The first part would also concern me because this might just be the offense no matter who the OC is if this is what McDermott believes in. Both years here we've seen a bland, extremely conservative, uncreative brand of offense, and the constant has been McDermott. It's really not looking good either way if he/they are coming back, unfortunately. 

 

 

Really? A lot of coordinators for Belichick and Daboll failed elsewhere ... as coordinators? As head coaches, yes. But as coordinators, the record is positive overall, I'd argue. And Daboll isn't a head coach here, he's a coordinator.

 

I totally disagree with you that our offense has been conservative or uncreative this year. Unsuccessful, yes. But not all that conservative. We've seen the wildcat, we've seen gadget plays, the read option ...

 

And being unsuccessful with a crappy offensive roster early in a rebuild doesn't necessarily mean the coach is doing a bad job. It might be that the plays would have worked if they'd been better executed. It could be partly Daboll's fault, but there are some smart people on both sides of the issue of whether Daboll is doing a good job. IMHO it's just not conclusive.

Edited November 8, 2018 by Thurman#1

[ALF]

The one thing money can buy is bringing in the best scouts and assistant coaches available.

 

Losing Richie, Wood and Kromer really set the offense back . 

[iinii]

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Nah. You don't "ride the coattails of Belichick and Saban." They don't hire guys they don't respect and they don't tolerate hangers-on.

 

Belichick had him as a coach from 2002 - 2006 and then hired him again in 2013 and then promoted him. That doesn't happen with Belichick unless you're doing your job and doing it very well. And the Boston Herald reported that if McDaniels left, they would see if Daboll was available. And that if McDaniels had left last year Daboll would have got the OC job.

 

https://247sports.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/Bolt/Bill-Belichick-would-check-in-on-Alabamas-Brian-Daboll-if-Josh-McDaniels-leaves-the-New-England-Patriots-113078544/

Maybe Daboll is why Belichick wouldn’t let McDaniels go to Indy. And you used if twice based on an article. Hearsay times two.

[Simon Says]

Why do you say they wont be able to spend "half of their available cap" in 2019? Based on what? No that hard to spend 90 million; can renegotiate your own players you want to keep...maybe take some dead cap hits by moving on from giyus like McCoy, Clay and Murphy if you want (all  making about 9 million). Rather than gambling  on risky, high-priced, elite, FA's, can really build some depth with that money. (Allen's dead cap hit is 12 or 13 the next couple years.)

[John from Riverside]

10 hours ago, BigDingus said:

Unfortunately, I don't think this is even close to the worst place scenario.

Worst case would be McDermott doubling down on a failed QB feeling the pressure to win and pulling a Sammy Watkins-esque deal where they trade 2020's 1st round pick to move back up in the draft & grab a high profile player.

Then that doesn't pan out, the next regime takes over without a 1st round pick, and also starts the typical "throw out all the old regime's personnel and replace them with mine" shtick.

 

Then any talent we invested heavily in gets gutted, opening more holes & leads to us spinning our wheels spending picks & money replacing holes we made ourselves. And with all that cap space you mentioned, they could feel compelled to overpay for players just to get them here, leaving us with massive contracts that'll put us in cap hell for years.

On top of that, it won't be long for some of that other talent to hit FA, and the Bills will look like the NFL's farm league once again watching guys we drafted & developed leave for greener pastures once their deals are up. With poor management, coaching and lack of talent, we could go in circles for years to come leading to another decade or 2 of futility.

Now THAT is the worst case scenario

 

 

We should just alternate between WR's & O-linemen. The more O-linemen the merrier. Whether it's for depth or competition, let's get as many bodies in there and allow the cream to rise to the top.

 

And hopefully we don't just scout the undrafted FA WR's for camp bodies as usual. 

I think we are going higher on skill position players in the draft this year.....yeah we might take a big ugly with the 1st pick....but that is also why you dont win.....so you can pick high in every round.

[Mr. WEO]

So even in Op's worst case scenario which includes "McBeanse still can't figure out offensive personel" AND they "swing and miss on FAs", it's really not hopeless because....

 

-the Bills have a lot of draft picks (for offense)

 

-there's lots of money for FAs

 

That's like saying "worst case scenario is that McBeane are terrible at piloting a plane and playing piano...but the good news is that we have lots of planes and pianos next year".

 

 

 

[Formerly Allan in MD]

On 10/26/2018 at 2:12 AM, Thurman#1 said:

For McDermott to go after next year something along the lines of a complete team meltdown would have to occur. I don't see any way Beane goes. After four years, now, a team that is still looking anywhere near this bad would put the coach in immediate danger and the GM on a very warm seat.

We'll likely have significant opportunities to improve in the off season, given our draft prospects and free agent money.  If Beane blows it and this team is still floundering next season, that warm seat will get hot as hell.  He's already made some poor choices and could very well be gone after three seasons.  It's pretty unlikely that if Beane goes following next season, McD will still be here as well. 

[John from Riverside]

To me worse case scenario is Beane and McDermott start feeling pressure that takes them away from the plan they have set forth......right as they are about to finish it.

 

Stay the course

Finish it out

Let your work be judged on your complete body of work.....which requires next off season

[Midwest1981]

12 hours ago, BigDingus said:

Unfortunately, I don't think this is even close to the worst place scenario.

Worst case would be McDermott doubling down on a failed QB feeling the pressure to win and pulling a Sammy Watkins-esque deal where they trade 2020's 1st round pick to move back up in the draft & grab a high profile player.

Then that doesn't pan out, the next regime takes over without a 1st round pick, and also starts the typical "throw out all the old regime's personnel and replace them with mine" shtick.

 

Then any talent we invested heavily in gets gutted, opening more holes & leads to us spinning our wheels spending picks & money replacing holes we made ourselves. And with all that cap space you mentioned, they could feel compelled to overpay for players just to get them here, leaving us with massive contracts that'll put us in cap hell for years.

On top of that, it won't be long for some of that other talent to hit FA, and the Bills will look like the NFL's farm league once again watching guys we drafted & developed leave for greener pastures once their deals are up. With poor management, coaching and lack of talent, we could go in circles for years to come leading to another decade or 2 of futility.

Now THAT is the worst case scenario

 

 

We should just alternate between WR's & O-linemen. The more O-linemen the merrier. Whether it's for depth or competition, let's get as many bodies in there and allow the cream to rise to the top.

 

And hopefully we don't just scout the undrafted FA WR's for camp bodies as usual. 

A more apt description for my 'worse-case scenario" is realistic worse-case scenario- and it still isn't any good:  Allen busts, McBeane still can't recognize offensive talent, and the Bills' offensive ineptitude perpetuates laughingstock status, which we clearly presently own, into another full season.

 

But I suppose it isn't the WORST-case scenario, as you outlined.  But yours seems more implausible.

 

Who would the Bills be trading our 2020 1st for in this draft?  Which offensive talent would be so tantalizing to rationalize it?  The Bills will already own a very high 2019 1st- they don't need to trade for one, like in middling years' past. And Buffalo will already struggle to justify taking an offensive player in the top-5 as it is- the only current justification is how wretched our offense is, not because there won't be a defensive player whose true value warrants the pick more than, say, Jonah Williams.

 

The Bills may reach for offense with their own high 1st but it's unlikely they'd look to acquire another 1st to do the same, if Pegula would even let them.  And yes, their seats are warmer now than last draft. But McBeane was so resistant to parting with future picks.  You consider that, too, and I don't think it's very likely Buffalo is trading its 2020 1st in April's draft.

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

So even in Op's worst case scenario which includes "McBeanse still can't figure out offensive personel" AND they "swing and miss on FAs", it's really not hopeless because....

 

-the Bills have a lot of draft picks (for offense)

 

-there's lots of money for FAs

 

That's like saying "worst case scenario is that McBeane are terrible at piloting a plane and playing piano...but the good news is that we have lots of planes and pianos next year".

 

 

 

I'm not sure you read what I wrote because made clear is that if the 2019 offseason is a dud then McBeane won't be making the decisions any further.  Yes, it would be unfortunate if the Bills blow through $50 million dollars worth of cap space and the next regime wants to rid itself of the additions.  Still, shockingly enough it wouldn't be crippling- a league-high $131.6 million in 2020 cap space underscores how the Bills have such little cap room currently committed. 

 

And God knows Buffalo hasn't drafted well this whole millennium but an emphasis on this decade.  That's awful but at least it means that internally we won't be spending much on our own guys; they won't consume much- or ANY- cap room, at least not until 2020/2021 when we try to extend some 2017 draft picks (White, Dawkins, Milano, and maybe Jones).

Edited November 8, 2018 by Midwest1981