Players that need replaced in 2019 for the Bills to succeed?

[Kirby Jackson]

22 minutes ago, CookieG said:

 

There are enough maxims being thrown around, and they are good ones..and they both boil down to "talent trumps need".

 

I just don't know if you can apply  them as rigid in all situations,. especially in the current situation. And a little further, prospect A over prospect B is not an all or nothing proposition.

 

Example...prospect A is a DE with a grade of 8.5, prospect B is an OT with a grade of 7.5.  And for the purposes of the ratings...let's say 8.5 is considered an all pro player and 7.5 is considered a fringe Pro Bowl player.

 

But...your team is already near the top in sacks but is at the very bottom of the league in pass protection, leading the league in sacks per attempt and has a pathetic run game.

 

This is where I think you get into a Bill Walsh maxim.  According to legend, when a scout would say something like, "a good prospect, but our draft position is too high for him." Walsh would dismiss the rating and say, "how would he help our team"?  (then he'd probably trade down).

 

In this case, who helps the team more? The higher rated DE help the team more than the lower rated, but still highly rated OT? I'd argue the latter.

 

Another example, let's say you consider this a weak WR class, with only 2 WR's you'd consider drafting in round 1 or 2. Its also a deep DL class with about a dozen draft worthy DL in the same rounds.

 

Considering that everyone else in the NFL probably knows about the WR class...do you consider a WR, knowing that if you wait, all prospects will be gone by the next round? 

 

One last maxim  is an offshoot of Belichick's catch phrase "situational awareness"...the one he preaches on a tactical level to his players all the time.  But it can also be applied to the team building level. 

 

And the situation is this...this is a historically bad offense that has been stripped with most of its talent. It needs to be made a priority. Just because you're drafting at a need position means the player selected will be a bust.

You raise some interesting questions but I’m sticking by my guns. If you have a choice between a guy that you graded as an All-Pro vs. an above average starter I’m taking the All-Pro. As an example, I’d take Nick Bosa ahead of Jonah Williams next year. Bosa, to me, is a lights out pass rusher. OT is a bigger need and I like Williams but I can find an average starter in the next round. I probably can’t find an above average pass rusher there. The drop down from elite to good is a big one. I’d rather drop from good to average than from elite to good. I hope that this makes sense. 

[John from Riverside]

8 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

You raise some interesting questions but I’m sticking by my guns. If you have a choice between a guy that you graded as an All-Pro vs. an above average starter I’m taking the All-Pro. As an example, I’d take Nick Bosa ahead of Jonah Williams next year. Bosa, to me, is a lights out pass rusher. OT is a bigger need and I like Williams but I can find an average starter in the next round. I probably can’t find an above average pass rusher there. The drop down from elite to good is a big one. I’d rather drop from good to average than from elite to good. I hope that this makes sense. 

To me it would depend on what was offered

 

Hard to pass up Bosa......you keep Hughes and put Bosa on the other side.....rotate another DE with them to keep them fresh.....and put pressure on QBs all day.   Right now we are MANUFACTURING pressure by Scheme.......

[Kirby Jackson]

11 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

To me it would depend on what was offered

 

Hard to pass up Bosa......you keep Hughes and put Bosa on the other side.....rotate another DE with them to keep them fresh.....and put pressure on QBs all day.   Right now we are MANUFACTURING pressure by Scheme.......

I guess that the way that I look at it is that I’d rather have the all-pro and the average guy than 2 slightly above average. I’d rather have:

- Tre White and Jordan Mills than EJ Gaines and Dion Dawkins. 

 

I believe that you need stars.

[Rebel101]

This would be easier to ask who you shouldn’t replace

[billsredneck1]

5 hours ago, BuffaloBillies said:

It would be painful to watch 1st round talent go off the board, but considering all the needs, I would be in favor of trading down twice, picking up multiple 2nd/3rd/4th round picks. And then maybe package our mid-to-lower round picks to move up some too. In the end, trying to convert those 10 picks across all rounds, into 6-7 picks in rounds 2-4. Players who are more likely to be able to come in and start day 1 next year.

if they do trade down  they could find a way to end up with 2 picks in the first 3 rds. they have 2 4ths and can take their 5th(2) and 7th(2), to move up.

 

what i'd like to see is 2 picks in each rd. 1 thru 4  and possibly still have a 6th.

Edited October 25, 2018 by billsredneck1

[reddogblitz]

7 hours ago, Mark92 said:

I don't think they draft a QB.  Probably bring in a a FA or 2.  

 

I vote for Brock.  At least if he gets in in the regular season we still have a chance.  Fish aren't even paying him 1 mil.

[Elite Poster]

3 hours ago, ctk232 said:

That all you got? Something extremely common? We also nailed picks in the 4th and 5th the last two years across different FOs. The past two drafts have more players contributing and still on the team than we've seen from most of our prior drafts this decade, and the one before.

 

Having 10 picks isn't a guarantee, having 10 first round picks also isn't - albeit anyone would take those chances simply because of the larger pool of talent to pick from. But neither scenario is guaranteed to work statistically speaking. That being said, the reason why having more draft picks is beneficial really shouldn't be that difficult to understand:

 

1. You have a higher probability of finding more players that will contribute by selecting more players from the overall talent pool.

2. You give yourself capital to trade up in earlier rounds, if desired for extra talent, without having to give up picks that would force you to sit out a round or "sell the farm" to get one guy.

3. You give yourself comfort to trade back and either use even more picks, or package later rounds to trade up in round 2 or 3 if a player has fallen that far. Not a likely scenario fwiw, but one that you still have comfort within.

4. Allows you to bring more guys in via the draft, develop what talent is there on rookie contracts for cheap, and help to build a sustainable team for the future (kinda what we're trying to do now).

5. Can help give you comfort to not overspend in FA - something we've done before and are currently suffering from. By having more picks, you don't need to over-reach or overpay B list players as much as you do with a standard set or less (especially given our position needs).

 

I don't see how any of this is a bad thing. While I agree the second 7th round pick likely doesn't mean anything, we've hit consistently in each of our last two drafts across different FOs - including the 4th and 5th round. Nothing's guaranteed, but I'll take this over 7 picks any day.

 

"Nailed". Enlighten me how average to below average players is nailing anything. Give me a break. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think Ivory or Zay are locks.

 

 

...you're slipping Gunner......didn't add your bud Logan Thomas as a definite UBER rider?..............

[ctk232]

5 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

 

"Nailed". Enlighten me how average to below average players is nailing anything. Give me a break. 

Take your break and pick a different word then but both Matt Milano and Taron Johnson have thus far played beyond their draft pick value and continue to do so. Therefore demonstrating, at least in the past two drafts, that we can likely scout talent out of those rounds. To expect anything from the Bills draft picks beyond the 3rd round is usually pushing it, but of the last two drafts? Absolutely. Nothing is ever guaranteed, but I'd rather have the picks than not.

Edited October 25, 2018 by ctk232

[John from Riverside]

4 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

 

"Nailed". Enlighten me how average to below average players is nailing anything. Give me a break. 

Nailed is a quality starter.....someone that does not go out there and ***** themselves on game day.....when you are talking about mid round picks that is the definition of "nailed"

 

When they come out as player of the week or earning some other type of award?   Yes...you "nailed" the pick

[Elite Poster]

4 minutes ago, ctk232 said:

Take your break and pick a different word then but both Matt Milano and Taron Johnson have thus far played beyond their draft pick value and continue to do so. Therefore demonstrating, at least in the past two drafts, that we can likely scout talent out of those rounds. To expect anything from the Bills draft picks beyond the 3rd round is usually pushing it, but of the last two drafts? Absolutely. Nothing is ever guaranteed, but I'd rather have the picks than not.

 

2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Nailed is a quality starter.....someone that does not go out there and ***** themselves on game day.....when you are talking about mid round picks that is the definition of "nailed"

 

When they come out as player of the week or earning some other type of award?   Yes...you "nailed" the pick

 

I think you guys are missing the point. I'm not saying it's bad to have picks, I'm saying I don't trust the guys with the picks. Continue telling me how amazing Matt Milano and Taron Johnson are as we get the doors blown off of us for the 4th time this year though. At this point, I like what we have in Taron but Milano is super inconsistent and he was last year as well. My definition of overhauling and rebuilding a team isn't 5th round picks being average to below average starters.

Edited October 25, 2018 by Elite Poster

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, Elite Poster said:

 

 

I think you guys are missing the point. I'm not saying it's bad to have picks, I'm saying I don't trust the guys with the picks. Continue telling me how amazing Matt Milano and Taron Johnson are as we get the doors blown off of us for the 4th time this year though. 

Your blaming blowouts on Matt Milano and Taron Johnson?

 

OMFG....dude

[Elite Poster]

Just now, John from Riverside said:

Your blaming blowouts on Matt Milano and Taron Johnson?

 

OMFG....dude

 

It's easy to use what I said in that manner but all I'm saying is according to you guys somehow we seem to have made the best moves in the off-season on defense but the defense still sucks ass. 

[John from Riverside]

Just now, Elite Poster said:

 

It's easy to use what I said in that manner but all I'm saying is according to you guys somehow we seem to have made the best moves in the off-season on defense but the defense still sucks ass. 

The defense does NOT suck ass

 

It is playing with the worst offense in NFL History.....prior to last week they were top 3 in DVOA....they are still top 10 in DVOA.....

 

Talk to me when we can score more the 10 points a game to keep them from being on the field all game......it takes a complete effort......

[PIZ]

3 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

That movie remains in my top 10 of all time

 

Please help.  What movie is this?

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

8 hours ago, Dave Allen said:

I agree. It's a long-term project; they can't fill all their holes in one offseason. If they can find a true #1 WR and solidly upgrade two OL spots, the offense should be significantly better next year.   

I know this rebuild will take 2 more full seasons but if we can just pu 2 wrs as good if not better than Zay and 2 OL guys to replace Miller and Duc. Also draft a RB since Shady will likely be gone. 

[ctk232]

17 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

 

 

I think you guys are missing the point. I'm not saying it's bad to have picks, I'm saying I don't trust the guys with the picks. Continue telling me how amazing Matt Milano and Taron Johnson are as we get the doors blown off of us for the 4th time this year though. At this point, I like what we have in Taron but Milano is super inconsistent and he was last year as well. My definition of overhauling and rebuilding a team isn't 5th round picks being average to below average starters.

Well to start, the defense is not as bad as you believe it to be, while it's certainly not an elite defense imo, it's most certainly a top 10 unit at present. It's still lacking depth along the line and one or two spots in the secondary and backer corps, but for a unit that logs more time on the field than most any other defense, what we're seeing is remarkable. And from his play as nickel db, Johnson has more of an impact than any other DB outside of Tre on the roster. Up until last week Milano was graded as one of the top players in the entire league at the position. Neither of them are perfect, but for 4th and 5th round picks? That's an absurd level of production. 

 

Through his one draft Beane has done nothing to cause me to question what he'll do with these picks. Allen was the biggest question mark but he did something we've all been crying for years for our FO to do and draft a top QB. Whether he was the prospect we hoped for or not, Beane went and got his guy. As far as I'm concerned, Edmunds, Phillips, and Johnson have all contributed to their corresponding pick values or more.

 

Not every pick in a rebuild is going to be a knockout starter - sustainable successful teams have middle contract guys filling out the roster that positively produce and help the team. Milano and Johnson are both guys that fit that role and will likely continue to develop as the seasons go on. While Milano wasn't a Beane pick, I still have faith for them to use these. 

 

I also feel it highly likely Beane attempts to move up either for a first or second round pick using this added capital based on his single draft record, but I could be completely off base there.

Edited October 25, 2018 by ctk232

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

 

 

 

...whatever the actual number is ($50-$80 mil for FA), anybody see McBeane spending it all?........or does he ALREADY have a spending number in mind for 2019 as well as a 2020 carry over (if I understand how carryover works)?.......of course "big splash FA spending" has had some crap results with no warranties or guarantees.....I see him playing close to the vest, but am probably wrong....anybody?..............

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, Elite Poster said:

 

Milano has had a few good games and a few stinkers. That is to me, average. 

 

Not this season he hasn't. He has been excellent other than last Sunday. 

5 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I think best player available is a catchy phrase. 

 

What I think really happens is the team sets up a big board with the overall rankings of every player. Then as the pick approaches they look at the grades of the remaining players, have a band they would like to stay within, a +/-, then select a player in that band that best fits with need. 

 

This is not passing on a 97 Cornerback to draft a 71 WR. 

 

Like everything else McDermott and Beane are going to tell you they are doing it all. They are planning for the future and in win-now mode. They are always going to publicly tell you they took the BPA. But what really happens is Stephon Gilmore walks out the door, we need a cornerback. We're done with Tyrod Taylor, we need a QB. We let Preston Brown walk, we need a MLB. And you match need with talent tiers. 

 

Yep. That is what the Bills have been doing and it is what half the league does every year. Convince itself that the talent matches up with their needs. 

 

The smart teams do not do this. The Green Bay Packers are famously a mock drafters nightmare because more often than not they don't allow themselves to get sidetracked by need. New England don't either. Baltimore for the majority of Newsome's reign were in the same category. A lot of teams who have sustained success avoid reaching for need and then convincing themselves it was a smart move. 

4 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I think we can definately use another pass rusher.....

 

If we draft top 5 I would like to see a trade down so that our first pick can be best player available and hope that pick is best player available in a position of need we should be taking multiple stabs at WR, OL and we need to draft a QB and a RB

 

If we have a shot at Oliver or Bosa I am picking them. 

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

You raise some interesting questions but I’m sticking by my guns. If you have a choice between a guy that you graded as an All-Pro vs. an above average starter I’m taking the All-Pro. As an example, I’d take Nick Bosa ahead of Jonah Williams next year. Bosa, to me, is a lights out pass rusher. OT is a bigger need and I like Williams but I can find an average starter in the next round. I probably can’t find an above average pass rusher there. The drop down from elite to good is a big one. I’d rather drop from good to average than from elite to good. I hope that this makes sense. 

 

And I am 100% with this. 

[PlayoffsPlease]

9 hours ago, golfball323 said:

 

Correct. This was a two year tear down with a two year rebuild. 

this is just combination mumbo jumbo and cliche.