Culture and the Process do not equal talent

[Gigs]

On 10/22/2018 at 2:08 PM, Buffalo Barbarian said:

So Allen , Dawkins, White, Edmunds, Philips, Milano, Johnson along with McCoy, Kyle, Hughes, Star, Poyer .... Don't have talent??

 

 

Bro....put the kool aid down. Beane didn’t bring in KW, Shady, Milano, Poyer, White, Hyde and didn’t start off by acquiring those picks he used to get Allen and Edmunds (the latter being really the only good addition by Beane.)

 

Seems the process is riding the coat tales of Nix/Whaley’s progress and purging the team of the talent they brought in (and even the talent Beane brought in.)

[Tenhigh]

20 hours ago, Foreigner said:

I was called a troll the beginning of the year for knocking McDermott and Beane.

What's this WAS nonsense.

 

 

 

10HI is COLD BLOODED!

Wait, I'm HOT blooded!

 

Edited October 24, 2018 by Tenhigh

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 minute ago, Soda Popinski said:

When Tomlin took over in Pittsburgh he didn't really change a thing, and he wasn't an incumbent coach, he was brand new, but he came in and learned Steeler football instead of Tomlin football.  That organization I am fairly convinced could win 8-10 games every year with a high school coach running the show.   It's an organizational culture they have towards winning.   They just win.   

 

I don't think Pete Caroll detonated the Seahawks when he took over either, he tweaked, and added, but didn't have some fire sale and gut the roster.   Miami has gutted their roster almost as many times as we have.   There is definitely a pattern for bad teams being blown up and staying bad and teams that get in good coaching staffs, retain most of their talent, and getting better.  

The key to Seattle was their drafts. They stacked three great drafts in a row. 

 

2010 - Russell Okung, Earl Thomas, Golden Tate, Kam Chancellor and stole Lynch from Bills

2011 - KJ Wright, Richard Sherman, Brandon Browner signed as FA

2012 - Russell Wilson, Bobby Wagner

 

The Bengals had a similar result in three straight drafts and went from 4-12 to 10-6 and started making the Playoffs routinely. 

 

I can see "The Process" taking 3 years, but you have to stack drafts together with multiple hits. 

[Soda Popinski]

Just now, Straight Hucklebuck said:

The key to Seattle was their drafts. They stacked three great drafts in a row. 

 

2010 - Russell Okung, Earl Thomas, Golden Tate, Kam Chancellor and stole Lynch from Bills

2011 - KJ Wright, Richard Sherman, Brandon Browner signed as FA

2012 - Russell Wilson, Bobby Wagner

 

The Bengals had a similar result in three straight drafts and went from 4-12 to 10-6 and started making the Playoffs routinely. 

 

I can see "The Process" taking 3 years, but you have to stack drafts together with multiple hits. 

I do feel like we're drafting correctly to get this thing turned around.  Just not happy with a few things that have turned out to be catastrophic this season.   We could not be in worse shape at the QB position.   Hopefully this 3rd draft is what gets us back on track.  

[ctk232]

16 minutes ago, Soda Popinski said:

i really don't believe it has as much to do with the salary cap situation of a team as it does the stubbornness of coaches who have to have "their guys".   Hell Rex ruined a top 5 defense with his hubris.       How much was Dareus making vs how much his dead cap hit AND Star equals right now?  coaches get rid of players, then sign players and you end up doubling down for a year or two until that money is off your books.

 

Deep down coaches believe that they can compensate for lack of talent with better coaching, and in the NFL it never works.   They all come in with their own process for winning and start from scratch, well it's an NFL freaking roster, you don't have to start from scratch every NFL team has some talent hanging around.  And the coaches that don't have the ability to not only work with that talent but then add to it are the ones continuously circling the drains.    

 

I do think McDermott and Beane will get in better players in 2019 but I think this year is MUCH MUCH more of a throwaway year than it ever needed to be.   We could have been much more competitive with a few roster changes. 

I can agree with that. And I do see what you're saying. I wouldn't equate McD to Rex in terms of forcing his change upon the team - I think that mistake was much more detrimental to the team now than McD coming in post-rex. It's not fair to ask McD to take what Rex changed/f***ed up and make it work when they run entirely different defensive schemes. Offense is another question, but in order to bring in his defense they likely needed to offload what they could to make it happen. No one was sorry to see Sammy or Dareus go, albeit with small dissent among the board, and likely were more worried when Darby and Woods were dealt. There's concern now that Sammy is starting to actually play to his potential, and those who don't like Star suddenly forget people were calling out Dareus and his attitude not being worth his salary, much less his lack of motivation and play. Star does the same thing without the attitude. It's not an excuse to say Rex took an otherwise solid D, let go of a great DCoordinator in Schwartz, and continued to blow up this team.This is what McD had to work with and was no where near in line with the defense he was hired to create.

 

The one specific I don't agree with is, unpopular opinion warning, I like having Star more than Dareus. I don't think we needed to pay him that much, though. 

Edited October 24, 2018 by ctk232

[Soda Popinski]

1 minute ago, ctk232 said:

I can agree with that. And I do see what you're saying. I wouldn't equate McD to Rex in terms of forcing his change upon the team - I think that mistake was much more detrimental to the team now than McD coming in post-rex. It's not fair to ask McD to take what Rex changed/f***ed up and make it work when they run entirely different defensive schemes. Offense is another question, but in order to bring in his defense they likely needed to offload what they could to make it happen. No one was sorry to see Sammy or Dareus go, albeit with small dissent among the board, and likely were more worried when Darby and Woods were dealt. It's not an excuse to say Rex took an otherwise solid D, let go of a great DCoordinator in Schwartz, and continued to blow up this team.This is what McD had to work with and was no where near in line with the defense he was hired to create.

 

The one specific I don't agree with is, unpopular opinion warning, I like having Star more than Dareus. I don't think we needed to pay him that much, though. 

I think Star is doing what this org brought him in to do, i just think we could have signed Justin Pugh and John Sullivan to play guard and center, drafted a NT (Phillips) and signed a free agent on the cheap with the money the didn't spend on Bodine and Newhouse.    

 

And had they used the McCarron money on Bridgewater we would be in much better shape right now.  But that milk's on the floor. 

[KD in CA]

Woah...they don't?  I'm thunderstruck.

 

Thank you to the OP for shining a light on this revelation.

[ctk232]

1 minute ago, Soda Popinski said:

I think Star is doing what this org brought him in to do, i just think we could have signed Justin Pugh and John Sullivan to play guard and center, drafted a NT (Phillips) and signed a free agent on the cheap with the money the didn't spend on Bodine and Newhouse.    

 

And had they used the McCarron money on Bridgewater we would be in much better shape right now.  But that milk's on the floor. 

That makes sense, though I have to say I know little about Sullivan with the Rams, and not sure Pugh would've really been helpful after watching him with the Giants. Isn't he on that atrocious line in Zona now? But yes, anything was better than Newhouse, Bodine I'll admit I was okay with and has been serviceable albeit not a Wood replacement.

 

I thought Bridgewater had injury concerns and we just didn't want a QB with potential injury/health concerns - but I agree knowing what we know now the idea of having Bridgewater over McCarron makes sense, just don't think I would have thought so at the time.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

28 minutes ago, ctk232 said:

There's a difference between excuses and evidence. We made the picks for Allen and Edmunds, I wasn't high on Allen and I am still not nearly convinced given what we've seen, but a lot of factors have to come into play that lead me to reserve judgment on him until he develops more and within a competent offense. What's your problem with Edmunds? Are you inferring Incognito left because of the paycut or what was the problem there? He literally quit on a mental breakdown, that's what happened. McD/Beane didn't inherit a dumpsterfire, but they inherited a team who's ceiling was proven to be 8-8, maybe 9-7, and in order to make the moves needed to perennially compete and especially compete for an SB (the end goal, mind you) would take giving up more of what we currently had. The cap absolutely plays a role in terms of who you can and can't bring in, it's not the reason we are where we are but it's a factor. I still don't know how I feel about Daboll and I'll admit I'm not high on him at present. These aren't excuses, it's just reality and we're approaching it very differently. While you've become fed up with blowout losses and what you've seen thus far and it's caused you to quit on what you're seeing for the future already, I'm choosing to wait and see more efficacious data before saying the ship is totally sunk and let's move on already.

 

I don't know what is on the way in the next seasons - no one does. I'm not predicting a complete turnaround or a playoff berth next year. We can all be skeptical based upon what we've seen, I am as well. The issue is calling it now before anything happens and treating this like it was the result they've been building toward. I agree some decisions have been questionable, and others have actually been for the better. All I'm saying is it's impossible to judge something that isn't even here yet - and while the current state is one of complete lack of competitiveness and ability on offense, who's to say what will and won't happen next year or the year after? The reason it is such an unknown is because of the cap space and draft picks giving us greater opportunity to right things and fill holes than not. It's not an excuse, it's a reason why no one knows for certain what will happen after this year.

Again, clear as day, I said they made the Playoffs in 2017, so they get 2018 and 2019. 

 

We're 23 games into the McDermott era and we're 11-13. 

 

Keep the faith, but this is the Bills. We look like we always look. A poor offense, a talented, but thin, overwhelmed defense, a journeyman backup QB filling in, and a sub 0.500 record. 

 

Now we have to convince FA WRs to come to Buffalo and actually show some restraint in the Draft not to trade up in the early rounds. 

 

[Bring it]

IMO you need culture and talent! But culture first as you build a team! You also need some great talent as leaders who believe in a certain culture. Especially at Qb. As you add players probably young draft picks they are immersed into that culture as a “this is the way to do things” belief!

I think we have that culture but are just really starting to add the young talent. Hate to say it but it’s going to take awhile! If you consider the last 2years of draft picks: White, Milano, Edmunds, Allen, Johnson, Phillips and Dawkins. All show big upsides so the future is bright if Mcbeane can hang on long enough till the changes start to pay off and/or Brady retires! Cause that will change the division in a hurry!

[Soda Popinski]

9 minutes ago, ctk232 said:

That makes sense, though I have to say I know little about Sullivan with the Rams, and not sure Pugh would've really been helpful after watching him with the Giants. Isn't he on that atrocious line in Zona now? But yes, anything was better than Newhouse, Bodine I'll admit I was okay with and has been serviceable albeit not a Wood replacement.

 

I thought Bridgewater had injury concerns and we just didn't want a QB with potential injury/health concerns - but I agree knowing what we know now the idea of having Bridgewater over McCarron makes sense, just don't think I would have thought so at the time.

you're not wrong about any of that. Pugh has actually been injured for them so not helping out a ton.     I'm just pissing and moaning because we suck so bad and looking back at what we might have done.   

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Being on time for meetings, working really hard, studying tape a lot does not meaningfully differentiate you for other NFL teams.

[HomeskillitMoorman]

15 hours ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

Can you “convert” this into an actual football insight? You’ve done your best on this and other threads, to turn this into some kind of a debate about spirituality and knocking any player for it, yet seemingly miss that each Bills’ player or coach, just like everyone else here, make personal decisions about faith, none of which  has anything whatsoever to do with their roster role or football acumen/ability. Although, isn’t it ironic that a Christian like Drew Brees plays at a high level for the “Saints?” That smells like a conspiracy to me for which Loomis and Payton should be fired—by your logic. C’mon man, I know you’re better than this kind of intellectually vacant posting. Can we talk ball ? now?

 

How do you know that it has nothing to do with their roster role? You mentioned you've seen my other posts...I believe this is the only one I made where I didn't include the reasons for why I think this could be a possibility. I disagreed with the specific thread I made on it being closed...but I think you had commented on that one...I did list the reasons behind my suspicions there. I asked about what football reason there possibly could be for Peterman still being here, and I think that's completely legitimate. Whether it's talent, arm strength, intangibles, vision...I'd love to hear about what he has that's on the NFL level. But even in that thread, you just shot the notion of this possibility down and told me to talk football...even though you didn't do that yourself. 

 

If Drew Brees was as horrific at what he does as Peterman is...I would understand some sort of logic to bringing him up.

 

Much crazier things have happened because of religion than this. Peterman has been completely outspoken about it and we definitely know where McDermott is on it. Pegula himself mentioned McDermott being a man of faith being a plus, which already shows some kind of bias for a football coach where there shouldn't be, it's completely irrelevant to his job. 

 

I think there are logical reasons to have this belief...and it makes more sense than saying otherwise without any other reason besides "just because". 

[ctk232]

39 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Again, clear as day, I said they made the Playoffs in 2017, so they get 2018 and 2019. 

 

We're 23 games into the McDermott era and we're 11-13. 

 

Keep the faith, but this is the Bills. We look like we always look. A poor offense, a talented, but thin, overwhelmed defense, a journeyman backup QB filling in, and a sub 0.500 record. 

 

Now we have to convince FA WRs to come to Buffalo and actually show some restraint in the Draft not to trade up in the early rounds. 

 

That has been a concern that makes me more skeptical than not - I do think money will win out, but ultimately limit the amount of players we can bring in. Winning helps with FA, rebuilds are mostly done through the draft as a result of losing seasons as you state, so keeping as much draft capital is needed. Though we do have capital to work with should we want to trade up and add picks in the 1st or 2nd, or even trade down in the 1st to do that. Only caveat being if we land a top 3 pick, I'd be really tempted to pick Oliver/Bosa despite that not being a position of need if both are truly generational talent.

 

Looking at the current crop of FA receivers, there are a couple I'd bring in, and plenty I'd avoid the contracts for. Honestly, I know it's a Carolina thing, but I'd like to see Funchess here if he doesn't resign, and draft a WR to help. KB can stay or go, but I'm curious how he will do as a WR2/3 on a roster (albeit likely overpaid for that role depending on his contract).

38 minutes ago, Soda Popinski said:

you're not wrong about any of that. Pugh has actually been injured for them so not helping out a ton.     I'm just pissing and moaning because we suck so bad and looking back at what we might have done.   

It's hard not to, the writing is there - had we been the least bit competitive this year this tone of this board would be different. To me, at least, it's clear the severity of comments/posts is mostly related to that more so than the issues at hand, topically speaking.

 

Hindsight is 20/20 but can blind you to potential future hope at times. There's still a lot of unknowns and no guarantee things would have worked out any other way - for all we know it very well could all just be Daboll (though unlikely) or all just be the QB situation (though also unlikely). The only certainty we have is we are currently playing our way into a top 5 pick, we have a ton of free cap which will make FA fun on here, and plenty o' draft picks, which will make the months leading up to April fun on here with the million and one mocks. It's not what we should be looking forward to in October, but it's not exactly recycling previous years where we had average to little cap and a standard slew of picks in the draft. Enjoy the unknowns with hope, while it's been our history since 94, no guarantee this goes the same way either. 

[GoBills808]

2 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

Clay is just another warm body out there? 

No more or less so than any other guy who's suited up at TE the last 4 years. I think Clay is a talented guy, and I loved getting him from MIA, but he just hasn't separated himself from O'Leary when he was here or Gragg before him in terms of Y/R, his production is simply a function of his use. That's not to say he isn't a good player, but my original contention that they haven't leaned on him (which, again, they obviously have but only inasmuch as any team might lean on their TE1, and in the Bills case even less so) was indicative more of a series of very limited passing offenses than any reliance on a particular player. I stand by the point that this team has not 'leaned' on Clay in any way they couldn't have with whichever TE2 happened to be on the roster.

[stuvian]

waiting for talent to come around has got us to the decade of fail. Great organizations build culture and process so that above average talent can succeed in the absence of great talent 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

2 hours ago, ctk232 said:

That has been a concern that makes me more skeptical than not - I do think money will win out, but ultimately limit the amount of players we can bring in. Winning helps with FA, rebuilds are mostly done through the draft as a result of losing seasons as you state, so keeping as much draft capital is needed. Though we do have capital to work with should we want to trade up and add picks in the 1st or 2nd, or even trade down in the 1st to do that. Only caveat being if we land a top 3 pick, I'd be really tempted to pick Oliver/Bosa despite that not being a position of need if both are truly generational talent.

 

Looking at the current crop of FA receivers, there are a couple I'd bring in, and plenty I'd avoid the contracts for. Honestly, I know it's a Carolina thing, but I'd like to see Funchess here if he doesn't resign, and draft a WR to help. KB can stay or go, but I'm curious how he will do as a WR2/3 on a roster (albeit likely overpaid for that role depending on his contract).

I do not want the Bills to move up and down the board. 

 

Realistically when you look at this roster the Bills need players at: RB, TE, C, OG, RT, WR, in addition to another DE, OLB, CB. 

 

That's 9 positions without duplicates. 

 

You trade up, you burn picks, you trade down and you miss better talent. I honestly think trading McCoy, Benjamin is the best strategy, if you can get anything for them, and then staying disciplined. 

 

Looking through the list, there are a few decent WRs - Beasley, Enunwa, Tyrell Williams, Adam Humphries, Robby Anderson, Funchess. Maybe you can convince two of them to come here.

 

Same with Tight End, there are few options, the entire depth chart there needs to be blown out and rebooted. 

 

Its going to be an uphill battle. 

 

 

[ctk232]

12 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I do not want the Bills to move up and down the board. 

 

Realistically when you look at this roster the Bills need players at: RB, TE, C, OG, RT, WR, in addition to another DE, OLB, CB. 

 

That's 9 positions without duplicates. 

 

You trade up, you burn picks, you trade down and you miss better talent. I honestly think trading McCoy, Benjamin is the best strategy, if you can get anything for them, and then staying disciplined. 

 

Looking through the list, there are a few decent WRs - Beasley, Enunwa, Tyrell Williams, Adam Humphries, Robby Anderson, Funchess. Maybe you can convince two of them to come here.

 

Same with Tight End, there are few options, the entire depth chart there needs to be blown out and rebooted. 

 

Its going to be an uphill battle. 

 

 

You aren't going to address all of those needs perfectly in one offseason, much less all of them period, no matter how much cap space or draft picks you have or how needed it is. There's an argument to be made for packaging late round picks (which is all we have capital of) for moving up to select more talent, or trading down later in the first and getting extra first/second round picks. I'm realistically only expecting OL and WR to be addressed via early draft picks, and depending on our first round pick, BPA which would likely be defensive.

 

We can add what we get in FA, likely at the OL and WR positions as well. The only WRs worth anything on that list imho are Funchess, and maybe Enunwa and Williams - Anderson is garbage, just ask any Jets fan, and Humphries is along the same lines (former roomies were jets and bucs fans so we still watch all those games, and get to listen to the issues). Not worth overpaying for these C list players.

 

For me, as long as we seriously address OL and WR this year - I'm okay either signing a B list TE or sticking with Clay and Croom one more year. RB is the same if we keep Shady for another year as well, though a late round pick on a RB wouldn't hurt. Not everyone we end up bringing in will obviously work out, but my priorities are maximizing our chances at OL and WR primarily - not so much the other positions. While it doesn't eradicate the issues, having a stout OL decreases the severity of need at most every other offensive position outside of QB. Our defensive position needs are there, but less warranted with an offense that stays on the field and puts up points.

 

But alas, an uphill battle indeed. 

Edited October 24, 2018 by ctk232

[Buffalo Barbarian]

15 hours ago, iinii said:

Not enough. You need at least 22 and you have named 12. It is akin to what Marv said about depth.

 

And we are obviously aren't done yet.