The Frankish Reich Posted October 20, 2018 Posted October 20, 2018 So I checked Pro Football Focus to see how they have our players graded through 6 games. Not surprisingly, some very good defensive scores. Surprisingly, though, they've loved Lorax, who gets their "Elite" rating (pretty much in the top 5 at his position). Milano: "above average." Star: "average." Tre White: "above average" (I would've thought a notch higher). But nothing too astounding. But on offense: would it surprise you to learn that we don't have a single below average starter? - Allen: "average" (!) - Zay: "above average" - KB: "average" - Clay/Shady: "above average" O line: Groy/Mills/Ducasse = "average"; Miller/Dawkins = "above average" Is PFF just trash now? Or by isolating players on the All-22 and rating man--on-man matchups, are they simply not equipped to notice all the blitzes, etc., that aren't covered by the O line, etc.? What can possibly explain Allen's rating, even taking running into account (which it does)? KB/Zay/Clay haven't exactly been productive, so if they have average/above average ratings, doesn't that mean they're getting open and the failure is somewhere else (protection? Allen not seeing them? both?). I used to like the site, although I always understood that we had to take their ratings with a boulder of salt. But this year ... really? 2
COTC Posted October 20, 2018 Posted October 20, 2018 National media can make judgements about our team without emotions. I trust them. 2
The Wiz Posted October 20, 2018 Posted October 20, 2018 (edited) I agree with most of them other than KB. He has been well below average all season. Doesn't matter who is throwing to him. I'd probably give clay and shady average instead of above. Edited October 20, 2018 by The Wiz 1 1
billspro Posted October 20, 2018 Posted October 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, COTC said: National media can make judgements about our team without emotions. I trust them. Most of the national media is brutal
Augie Posted October 20, 2018 Posted October 20, 2018 Our point production has been....umm, below average. Maybe we are playing the 85 Bears D every week?
26CornerBlitz Posted October 20, 2018 Posted October 20, 2018 All 32 teams use PFF for statistical analysis. 1
Big Turk Posted October 21, 2018 Posted October 21, 2018 3 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said: So I checked Pro Football Focus to see how they have our players graded through 6 games. Not surprisingly, some very good defensive scores. Surprisingly, though, they've loved Lorax, who gets their "Elite" rating (pretty much in the top 5 at his position). Milano: "above average." Star: "average." Tre White: "above average" (I would've thought a notch higher). But nothing too astounding. But on offense: would it surprise you to learn that we don't have a single below average starter? - Allen: "average" (!) - Zay: "above average" - KB: "average" - Clay/Shady: "above average" O line: Groy/Mills/Ducasse = "average"; Miller/Dawkins = "above average" Is PFF just trash now? Or by isolating players on the All-22 and rating man--on-man matchups, are they simply not equipped to notice all the blitzes, etc., that aren't covered by the O line, etc.? What can possibly explain Allen's rating, even taking running into account (which it does)? KB/Zay/Clay haven't exactly been productive, so if they have average/above average ratings, doesn't that mean they're getting open and the failure is somewhere else (protection? Allen not seeing them? both?). I used to like the site, although I always understood that we had to take their ratings with a boulder of salt. But this year ... really? They don't know what their assignment is on any given play. Therefore all grades need to be taken with a grain of salt. A player could make a tackle in the backfield and they mark it as a great play but if his job was to stay home on the backside of the play and he didn't, he is getting chewed out by his coach on the sideline...great play this time but next time its an 80 yard TD.
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted October 21, 2018 Posted October 21, 2018 3 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said: All 32 teams use PFF for statistical analysis. Riiiiiiiiight pff is useless
JerseyBills Posted October 21, 2018 Posted October 21, 2018 Derek Anderson and this O are going to surprise some ppl. Blessing in disguise for Allen who is too raw but will be a stud . I think Allen goes for 200. Shady/Ivory over 140 and we put up 27 points. Anderson
billsfan89 Posted October 21, 2018 Posted October 21, 2018 PFF and football analytics in general has its use but it also has its limitations. For example the person watching and grading the player on a particular play does not know what the assignment of the player is. Football analytics won't ever rise to the prominence that baseball analytics have. There are just too many variables and too many unknowns.
hondo in seattle Posted October 21, 2018 Posted October 21, 2018 I gotta say... wow! In my mind those grades do hurt PFF’s credibility. How can they be so wrong?
GunnerBill Posted October 21, 2018 Posted October 21, 2018 (edited) I think you are obsessing over the names they give to their categories too much. What they call "average" is actually not "average" in the normal understanding of the word. Look at where those "average" scores rank by position vs their peers. Take Jordan Mills for example. He grades in their "average" category. But he ranks 58th of 74 qualifying tackles across the whole league. That is clearly below average. Josh Allen ranks 34th of 36 Quarterbacks. That is certainly not average. The problem isn't with PFF as such, which is never perfect but is one tool and a decent one at that... it is with what they name their categories. Edited October 21, 2018 by GunnerBill 2
BigDingus Posted October 21, 2018 Posted October 21, 2018 I don't think they're "trash," but depending on the metrics used, you can have two different takeaways judging the same players. The offense as a whole isn't playing anywhere close to average, let alone above average, that much is certain. Didn't an article come out just this past week showing the 2018 Bills offense is performing at HISTORICALLY low levels, not just among Bills teams, and not just this season, but among all teams over the past several decades? This offense as a whole was ranked the 2nd worst ever among all those teams over all those years, and yet PFF has nobody rated below average on an individual level... Hmmm, not sure how to take that, but I still think PFF is usually a pretty good outlet for breaking down football.
GunnerBill Posted October 21, 2018 Posted October 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, BigDingus said: , and yet PFF has nobody rated below average on an individual level... Except they do. It is the labels that are wrong not the grades. What they label average is not really average when you look at the positional rankings.
MJS Posted October 21, 2018 Posted October 21, 2018 Average oline play all around the league is pretty bad. Everyone is focused on the bad play of the Bills oline, but most teams are in the exact same boat. So yes, we have an average offensive line. The only grades that surprise me are Kelvin Benjamin and Josh Allen. You'd think both of those guys would have below average grades.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 21, 2018 Posted October 21, 2018 14 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said: All 32 teams use PFF for statistical analysis. More accurate to say teams use some of the PFF statistics for analysis. They don’t pay heed to the PFF player grades. Wood and other players in interviews have made it clear the position coaches grade each player internally based upon their known assignment for each play (which PFF does not know), and that the grades often differ markedly from PFF, sometimes much to the annoyance of players
26CornerBlitz Posted October 21, 2018 Posted October 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: More accurate to say teams use some of the PFF statistics for analysis. They don’t pay heed to the PFF player grades. Wood and other players in interviews have made it clear the position coaches grade each player internally based upon their known assignment for each play (which PFF does not know), and that the grades often differ markedly from PFF, sometimes much to the annoyance of players Agreed. They do not rely on PFF exclusively for data analytics.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 21, 2018 Posted October 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said: Agreed. They do not rely on PFF exclusively for data analytics. I thought your comment was just confusing given the topic of discussion being PFF player grades. The implication seemed to be that teams utilize these. They don’t.
26CornerBlitz Posted October 21, 2018 Posted October 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I thought your comment was just confusing given the topic of discussion being PFF player grades. The implication seemed to be that teams utilize these. They don’t. Might have been, I was making a general statement about NFL teams subscribing to their service.
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